Nick Clegg (Lib-Dem) now in contention as potential PM, Guardian/ICM poll shows

[brooklynite]

Source: Manchester Guardian

Nick Clegg has surged into contention as a potential prime minister, according to a Guardian/ICM poll carried out following last night's TV leaders' debate.

A quarter of voters who watched the three leaders on the ITV programme say they will switch their vote, with most changing to the Liberal Democrats.

Clegg emerges from the telephone poll as the overwhelming winner, with 51% who watched saying he came out on top. David Cameron and Gordon Brown trail in far behind: 20% say Cameron won and 19% Brown.

The poll, based on a sample of 505 voters who had previously told ICM how they would vote, found Conservative and Labour supporters also thought Clegg won the event. While 44% of Tories thought Cameron won, 46% thought Clegg did. Among Labour voters, 43% said Brown won, and 44% Clegg.

Read more: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/apr/16/nick-clegg-guardian-icm-poll-pm

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Still a ways to go till the election, but I think the Liberals and Conservatives may be running too much of an old-school campaign which doesn't play well today.

[Democat]

1. That would be surprising!

It would also be great to see Romney get the nomination in 2012 and then have someone like Palin or Ron Paul run as a Tea Party candidate. :toast:

[NYC Liberal]

2. I don't follow UK politics as much as I probably should, but

Watching some of the highlights from the debate, I'm going to go find out moor about him.

[DavidDvorkin]

3. I'd read that he had "a good debate"

Sounds like he had a great debate.

[depakid]

4. Clegg continues to impress

Labour's got little left to offer and the Tories are still stuck in the 1980's (Cameron's "compassionate conservative" language is just a shallow ploy).

[supernova]

5. Ain't that the truth?

I'm really surprised he thinks it's OK to run as a kinder/gentler/hipper Margaret Thatcher.

[bikebloke]

6. I've heard him on the Beeb.

He's knicked the "hope and change" shtick ad nauseum.

[T_i_B]

28. Very true

I like a lot of Lib Dem policies, but Clegg strikes me as just another empty suit. A windbag who'd sell his own granny for power. I'd much rather that Charles Kennedy was still leader of the Lib Dems.

All this gumph about a Lib Dem surge is based on Cleggs performance in the first leaders debate. Aside from that the Lib Dem campaign really hasn't been much to write home about.

[muriel_volestrangler]

7. It's more a move towards the Lib Dems than a chance of the Lib Dems being the biggest party

There was some misreporting of a poll taken after the debate. Some people confused the figures for 'those who had watched the debate' with 'all voters'. Here's what it actually said:

The final analysis of the ComRes instant poll for last night’s ITV News at Ten among those watching the First Election Debate, extrapolated across the GB adult population as a whole, puts the Conservatives on 35 per cent, Labour on 28 per cent and Liberal Democrats on 24 per cent. This compares to the ComRes poll broadcast on ITV News at Ten on 14th April showing Conservatives on 35 per cent, Labour on 29 per cent and Liberal Democrats on 21 per cent.

Of the 4,000 sample of viewers who watched the debate, their voting intentions are now Conservative 36 per cent, Labour 24 per cent and Lib Dems 35 per cent. This compares to their stated voting intentions prior to the debate which stood at Conservative 39 per cent, Labour at 27 per cent and Liberal Democrat 21 per cent.

http://blogs.journalism.co.uk/editors/2010/04/16/comres-stats-whos-to-blame-for-misreported-lib-dem-leap-frog-poll-itv-blames-outside-journalist/

So the Lib Dems appear to have gained 3% from the debate. That's good - it could mean they hang on to just about all the seats they have now, rather than lose perhaps 20% (which they had been facing), and might even gain one or 2 seats from Labour. But there is still no realistic chance of Clegg becoming PM. If there is a hung parliament, there might be more chance of a formal coalition now, which might include the Lib Dems getting one or two cabinet seats. But even that is by no means guaranteed.

[daleo]

10. It sounds like you may get what we call a minority government

Here in Canada. It's lots of fun.

[muriel_volestrangler]

11. Current odds offered from a bookmaker:

Conservative Majority 8/11
None (Hung Parliament) 6/5
Labour Majority 14/1

And then if there's a hung parliament:
Who will Lib Dems form a coalition in a hung parliament?
Neither 4/9
Labour 3/1
Conservatives 9/2

So (allowing for the profit they build into their odds) they think a Tory majority about 53% likely; Lab majority 6%; Lab-Lib Dem coalition 9%; Con-Lib Dem coalition 7%; and minority govt (Con or Lab) 26%.

There are a few other parties to confuse things - Unionists in Northern Ireland, mainly.

[daleo]

12. We have our Quebec Separatist Party

And Greens, which confuse matters as well (though they don't have seats yet). I guess you can't know how it shakes down until the votes are counted and the possible post-election jockeying is done.

I am torn. Blair's foreign policy was a disaster in my opinion (mostly Iraq). But I gather he had some positives, in matters such as post-secondary education and some other domestic issues. I find it hard to support Conservatives, though I can go along with what we call "Red Toryism" if the leader strikes me as ok. I suppose the Liberal Democrats ought to be like our Liberal Party, which I can support in this context. But I don't get to vote, so I guess it's all hypothetical from that point of view.

Anyway good luck with it.

[Turborama]

15. What are the odds for a Liberal Democrat majority?

Looking at the polling that's coming out, it's not impossible.

[muriel_volestrangler]

16. For a Lib Dem majority, I can't find a quote on the site

It's too unlikely. It'd be the biggest surprise, not just in British electoral history, but, I'd contend, world democracy. The electoral system, and the distribution of people who might consider voting Lib Dem, and those who always vote Labour or Tory, just aren't set up for it.

For which party gets the largest number of seats, we have:

Conservatives 1/6
Labour 4/1
Liberal Democrats 25/1

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-election-betting?ev_oc_grp_ids=64933

After tonight's poll, they've changed the hung parliament odds a little:

Conservative Majority 5/6
None (Hung Parliament) evens
Labour Majority 14/1

[Turborama]

19. I just found an interesting article on this that quotes Ladbrokes saying 50 to 1

What about 50/1 to win most seats?

This has been one of Nick Clegg’s better weeks in office. A generally acknowledged win in the first debate - held on an even footing with the other two party leaders, which itself was a bonus on the usual situation - was followed up by a lot of very favourable coverage and yesterday’s outstanding YouGov poll, placing the Lib Dems within a 2% swing of having the largest share.

In sport, the phrase ‘peaking too early’ is often dismissively applied to teams who put in a great performance early in a competition. Sometimes that’s right and the side tails off but it doesn’t necessarily follow: at the very least, it makes the competition sit up and take notice.

The momentum is obviously with the Lib Dems at the moment. There are a little under three weeks to go and another two debates. Is it time to look seriously at the Lib Dems’ prospects of winning most seats - something which is priced at 50/1 http://www.ladbrokes.com/ast?action=go_asset&new=1&aff_id=31303&asset_id=5147">with Ladbrokes.

Normally, such a bet would be an absurd prospect: assuming around 30-35 Others, the Lib Dems would need an absolute minimum of 210 to be the largest party and in all probability are not fighting seriously (i.e. to win) in anywhere near all of them. However, these are not normal times.

Full article: http://www6.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/04/17/how-high-can-the-lib-dems-go/

I agree that it would be a historic surprise but if I was in England I'd put £10 on it. At 50 to 1 it's a lot to gain and not much to lose.

[mvd]

27. Sounds good. Both Labour and the Conservatives..

have had their faults. Labour has been hawkish while the Conservatives are pro-wealthy and the elite.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

8. Lib Dems will never win but a Lib-Lab coalition could be likely

In Britain it is not really the party leader that wins the election.

[IndianaGreen]

21. Clegg already shot down that idea!

Months ago Clegg said that in the event of a hung parliament he would form an alliance with the party that got the most votes.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

24. Clegg is a closet Tory

[IndianaGreen]

25. No, he is not!

Brown, like Blair, loves war as much as the Tories do.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

26. clegg used to be a conservative

yes there are similarities between B-liar and Clegg.

[Turborama]

9. The comments below the article make for a good read.

The election in Britain is turning out to be quite exciting.

[LeftishBrit]

13. Very unlikely. However, he could well be the 'kingmaker' in a hung parliament

[muriel_volestrangler]

14. YouGov: Labour drop to 3rd place

Con 33%, Lib Dem 30%, Lab 28%

This is their regular poll.

http://www.today.yougov.co.uk/politics/latest-voting-intention-16-april

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Sun-YouGov-Poll-Puts-Labour-In-Third-Place-Lib-Dems-Up-Eight-To-Second-After-First-Leaders-Debate/Article/201004315606044?lpos=Politics_First_UK_News_Article_Teaser_Region_2&lid=ARTICLE_15606044_Sun_YouGov_Poll_Puts_Labour_In_Third_Place%2C_Lib_Dems_Up_Eight_To_Second_After_First_Leaders_Debate

[Odin2005]

17. I like the Lib-Dems, I will be ecstatic for the Brits if they win a plurailty.

[Endangered Specie]

18. I'm willing to bet that the Lib Dems get to play kingmaker, and I suspect one issue

which is very important to them will get a lot more light (that being proportional representation).

[IndianaGreen]

20. This is great news! A rejection of New Labour and of the Tories!

Just what our own country needs, a Liberal Democrat Party (that's their actual name in case you are wondering about the use of the term "Democrat").

There are two more debates (I think!), Clegg needs to be ready to be attacked by Brown and Cameron.

[Vicar In A Tutu]

22. It's in Brown's best interests not to go too hard on him

Current post-debate polls show that although they are always in second or third in terms of the popular vote, Labour - as a result of a Lib Dem surge - would hold the most seats. As the Tories are the only party not to support electoral reform it would make a Lab-Lib coalition almost certain in my eyes. Labour, in some areas, are still somewhat to the left of the Lib Dems (welfare in particular) so that would be no bad thing.

[Odin2005]

32. I've heard the BBC call the US Dems the "Democrat Party" because of that, LOL.

Drives me up the wall.

[JackRiddler]

23. Nostalgia appreciated but it hasn't been the Manchester Guardian since 1960!

[T_i_B]

29. Are the Lib Dems going to put these opinion poll results...

....onto an out of scale bar chart, with the caption "ONLY THE LIB DEMS CAN WIN HERE!" That's what I want to know.

[muriel_volestrangler]

31. Heh - good one (nt)

[Turborama]

30. Liberal Democrats are ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives in 2 recent polls

The 1st time they have been leading in a general election for 104 years.

I posted details about this here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8172753