Will Redistricting Be a Bloodbath for Democrats?

[Imperialism Inc.]

Source: ABC News

State legislatures in 44 states are responsible for one of the most important political processes: drawing district boundaries for the U.S. House of Representatives.

In a process that usually triggers partisan bickering, the reigning party usually has the upper hand, especially if the governor is also from the same party and cannot veto the legislature's decisions.

Republicans took control of at least 19 Democratic-controlled state legislatures Tuesday and gained more than 650 seats, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. The last time Republicans saw such victories was in 1994, when they captured control of 20 state legislatures.

Republicans haven't controlled as many state legislatures since 1928.

Read more: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/republicans-historic-win-state-legislatures-vote-2010-election/story?id=12049040

---

Redistricting is done the year after the Census.

[polichick]

1. It'll be ugly - Dems should hire the best rebranding team they can...

...and start getting their message out asap.

[Duchess]

2. I remember hearing...

a remark someone made about redistricting the Republicans into political obscurity for the next decade. I guess they should have made step 1 of their plan - winning the 2010 elections.

[David__77]

3. No. Not necessarily.

Not if the Justice Department is aggressive and Democrats are smart, stubborn, and litigious. We should remember that we are already facing a very pro-GOP gerrymander. For instance, PA, OH, MI, TX, and FL are already designed to provide many GOP seats. Against all odds, we held more than we were "supposed to" for four or two years. If we are smart, we can come out ahead with enough gumption and the desire to win by any means necessary.

[Imperialism Inc.]

6. How does that work? The local parties can file a federal lawsuit?

I'm not familiar with the process.

[David__77]

9. Well, many states have to have Justice Department approval.

If they are covered under the Voting Rights Act. There are other possible legal challenges that could be brought, which may not be successful but may help from a political perspective. The results of the census also matter. Just because "red states" are gaining in terms of population does not mean that the population is clustered in Republican-voting areas. Remember that every person in the country counts, and not just citizens either.

I would hope that, at a minimum, Democrats would use EVERY parliamentary tactic, including fleeing the state to disallow to quorum (like the Texas Democrats did), to prevent the drawing of rigged district lines. We hook or by crook, win.

[RandomThoughts]

4. It should be done double blind.

Very easy to set up, already explained how it can be done without bias.

Divide segments into population groups 1/10 the size of a district, then put them on a linked map with areas next to each other, next to each other on that map, with some 1/2x range for county, city boundaries and natural boundaries. The map they are put on would not be a state map, but a map with only circles and distance between them, so would not have any other information on it.


That removes all information but geographic and population, then have a different group group together the circles to form districts. And the second group can not see on the map what city is which, and can not see any information about income or other demographics, only a bunch of population circles. And they can make the selections of each district based on the information of boundaries, and population, only.


Could have anyone do that, and it would be really easy to make it non partisan.


If it is wanted to be done, it is very easy to make it non partisan.

Very easy to do.

There could be a .90 distance multiplier for being in a current district if it is desired to maintain some consistency with current districts, however the current districts are mostly gerrymandered anyways.

[FBaggins]

27. The net effect would be a republican gerrymander in many states.

Democratic gerrymanders rely on multiple districted that each stick a little finger into inner-city heavily-democratic population centers. If instead you draw a circle around that city, you end up with an 80/20 democratic district surrounded by republican suburbs.

In Iowa, for instance, we currently control three of the five House districts, but it could just as easily be 4-1 against us if you drew a line around the wrong counties in the eastern part of the state.

[onehandle]

5. Yes. We lose several percent of the baseline vote now. nt

[Dappleganger]

7. Amendments 5&6 were approved in FL on Tuesday.

So there's going to be some losers on both sides of the aisle, but mostly it will be a big WIN the democrats in FL. The big one I know the D's would lose is Corrine Brown's district, but IMO because it will hurt Thrasher and so many others more it will be worth losing her.

[Curmudgeoness]

8. In PA, it has been a disgrace in the past, and it will be a bloodbath

this time too. We have fought and fought gerrymandering, and it has continued to be the most bizarre map here you have ever seen, with snaky districts and cities split into two districts. Outrageous. And now, we are lost. Repugs have taken over everywhere in PA. Damn it.

[martymar64]

22. Texas is bad too. four Districts are used to split up Austin!

They did it purposely to water down the democratic vote in liberal Austin.
I now have a fucking Repuke , Mike McCaul, as my congressman instead of Lloyd Doggett, whom I absolutely adore.

I hope Tom Delay burns in hell for what he did to this state.

[Curmudgeoness]

23. Yep, Texas has always had problems. I am sorry for you.

Can't believe that Austin is split into four districts. It just is not right, and I don't know how it is stopped. Not this time. So here we are, another ten years.

[sally cat]

10. This might be worse than losing the House.

[DarthDem]

13. You're a Concern Troll.

Relax; this is all good news for John McCain.

[BootinUp]

11. Read somewhere this will lock in 15-25 more House seats

for the repukes.

[DarthDem]

12. LOL

No. It won't.

The new mathematical redistricting requirements in Florida were the real bloodbath, and not for the Dems; the Dems stand to gain three, maybe even four seats as a result, because the dummymandering done by the Republicans will be undone. Illinois will also be redistricted favorably so that Dems will gain about three seats, probably winning back the Chicago-area seats that they lost on Tuesday.

PA and MI can't really be districted any more unfavorably for the Dems than they are now. And Dems can still win there, as we saw in 2006 and 2008. Texas is a lost cause until the demographics change there - - 15 more years, probably.

Ohio is a problem; some of the Republican gains from Tuesday might well be cemented. North Carolina will be interesting, but efforts to redistrict that state in favor of Rethugs are going to be really, really difficult without offending constitutional concerns.

In all, I expect it to be a wash over the long term, with possible help for the Dems in the short term. Bear in mind that most of the state legislative losses came in states we don't care about at the moment (AL) or in areas where it's not a big problem for various reasons (MN). However, expect to hear this as a bit of a meme for the next six months or so.

[BootinUp]

15. Well, glad to hear I got it wrong!

:toast:

[Dappleganger]

24. Yes, definitely good news for us in FL

Although Corrine Brown will probably lose her district, but my god I would give anything to see Thrasher squeezed out of his.

[FBaggins]

28. Whew... thank goodness.

I didn't realize that we didn't care about PA,OH,IN,MI,WI, and MN.

That really sets my mind at ease.

It remains to be seen how much of an impact the change in FL will have (dozens of court dates yet to be set)...

...but CA just did the same type of thing, and that was going to be fertile ground for redistricting.

[ProudDad]

17. The pukes will DEFINITELY get one more from the New Mississippi

Arizona...

[DarthDem]

19. Actually . . . .

I tihnk that new seat may have to be a majority-minority district when they sit down to draw the lines. It's going to have to be situated in the Tucson area, apparently, and it's not going to be easy to stick a new Rethug seat there - - unless they want to strengthen Giffords and Grijalva. But maybe they do, and if so, no biggie, as the lost seat can be viewed as coming from Ohio (which is losing two).

[ProudDad]

20. GAK! That's real bad news...

They'll grab central Tucson, create an 80% democrat district (which about what Central Tucson is) and then gerrymander central Tucson OUT of CD7 (Grijalva's district) and CD8 (Gifford's district)...

Which will result in 2 Dems from CD7 and CD8 replaced by ONE Dem and two pukes...

And Tucson will get fucked again...

WE MUST SECEDE...

I think Baja Arizona should join northern Senora state as the Pima/Senora Bioregion!

[DarthDem]

21. Enh . . . .

Maybe you're right, but maybe we should let it play out. I think the most likely outcome is a wash in AZ. Giffords is pretty popular; this year's electorate was just weird and atypical. Both of them will benefit from non-midterm turnout in 2012 that looks more like the actual electorate in this country.

[ProudDad]

26. Giffords is only popular amongst old-fashioned republicans and

blue-dog dems...

Progressives HATE her...!

Of course, she only changed from R to D to "get elected" since she's allegedly pro-choice and couldn't get nominated as a republican... She's still an 'R' at heart...

And may not be elected -- they're still counting ballots and that one's still too close to call...(and I didn't vote for her, I wrote in an actual Progressive Democrat instead)...

[ProudDad]

14. Yep...

continuing the USAmerican slide into the cesspool of Fascism...

[ProudDad]

16. It's too late here in the New Mississippi - Arizona...

We're so heavily Gerrymandered now that they really couldn't do much more than make sure the one new congress-critter Arizona gets is also a republican...

The only democrats in the legislature and congress from here are from districts where they cannot lose because damn near ALL of the democrats in the state are in those very few, RARE districts.

[Historic NY]

18. Another consequence of sitting home pouting...

the game is rigged and people just don't get it.

[Dappleganger]

25. Yes, and local judges...

at the county and state levels are a big loss of impact if someone chooses not to vote.