New census count may complicate Obama 2012 bid

[discocrisco01]

Source: Associated Press

WASHINGTON — The 2010 census report coming out Tuesday will include a boatload of good political news for Republicans and grim data for Democrats hoping to re-elect President Barack Obama and rebound from last month's devastating elections.

The population continues to shift from Democratic-leaning Rust Belt states to Republican-leaning Sun Belt states, a trend the Census Bureau will detail in its once-a-decade report to the president. Political clout shifts, too, because the nation must reapportion the 435 House districts to make them roughly equal in population, based on the latest census figures.

Democrats' problems don't end there.

November's elections put Republicans in control of dozens of state legislatures and governorships, just as states prepare to redraw their congressional and legislative district maps. It's often a brutally partisan process, and Republicans' control in those states will enable them to create new districts to their liking


Read more: http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/40739464/ns/politics/

[EC]

1. So - if a Democrat moves to the south

does the Democrat automatically become a Repub? That's how this reads...that just because more people are moving into red districts, they are red...of course those districts that grow will get more reps...but does that automatically mean they'll be repub?

[shraby]

2. The state legislatures can draw their little gerrymandering

lines, but when the Dems living in those districts vote, the outcome might just be different than what they bargained for.

[onehandle]

6. A Democrat moving to the South basically loses his Presidential vote.

Because the South is so overwhelmingly Republican. He may end up in one of the few Democratic districts and elect a local or Congressional Democrat, but he will not influence the Presidential vote.

A Democrat moving to the South is a lost vote for Obama.

[JDPriestly]

7. Unless the Democrat becomes politically active and changes

the color of his community. That can happen. I know lots of blues who were born to red parents and vice versa.

[tcaudilllg]

12. No it can't. Politics is inborn... check the neuroscience.

[onehandle]

15. No amount of work is going to get the libertarianteabaggers here in the South to vote Democratic.

Not for at least a generation or two. They outnumber Democrats. Period.

[rfranklin]

16. by the time they wake up they will be the new slaves....

figuratively, because that is where it is going.

[AlbertCat]

11. A Democrat moving to the South basically loses his Presidential vote.

Uh.... depends on the election and who's running, doesn't it? Not were you live.

Look west, young man.... Where big empty square states who only survive because of money the Gov gets from smaller, populated coastal states, decides what's good for everyone. There's your problem.

[Name removed]

13. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Igel]

9. Not automatically.

But I remember reading something maybe 2 years ago on this point: (D) that move to primarily (R) areas tend to shift to being (R), and vice-versa. It was far from a complete conversion. However, a majority of those surveyed, over the course of something like 5 or 7 years, did change their party affiliation.

The report--typical "science reporting"--didn't go into what (D) vs (R) meant beyond saying they were self-reported labels. Given that many people that are (D) vote (R) and vice-versa, those are often handy labels for a lot of purposes without necessarily having pre-set content, it may be that the (D) voters that "assimilated" actually just changed labels and not content. On the other hand, since a portion of political views are maintained by peer pressure and fed by conversation with peers, it may be that a lot of the (D) surveyed really did shift views.

It also has to be noted that a fair number of (R) from very liberal states are nearly as liberal as a fair number of (D) from conservative states. As an acquaintance in college said, at home he was a Democrat, he went to college and joined the Young Democrats his freshman year, but by his junior year he was a republican. He didn't change his views; but the (D) at home were far more conservative than the (D) he surrounded himself with at school.

Die-hards, for example the benighted college profesor who ardently and oh-so-blindly supported Obama to the point that when I asked how she thought about Obama's selecting Palin as his running mate and his support for an open-ended commitment to combat troops in Iraq said she was proud of his choice and whole-heartedly supported his Iraq war stance, only to run off and "share the good news," probably don't change their beliefs. (I hesitate to call that professor's blind support an "opinion.")

[pstokely]

10. Where are these Dems moving to?

Or is it Repukes that are moving to the Sun Belt?

[old mark]

3. Well, here in rust belt PA, the republicans came to us - kicked our Democratic ass

and will take control of the state in January. The GOP now has 1 PA Senator, many more US reps, our new governor, and so many State legislators that the Democrats have virtually no say in state government.

The idea is that the number of people in the Red states is increasing, therefor they will gain representation in the US House while the decreasing population in the old Blue states lessens the number of reps we will have, regardless of teh number of voters of either party...they DO assume the red states will stay red and the blue blue.

FWIW, PA Democrats still have a very large majority of registered voters over republicans - they just didn't vote last November.

K&R
mark

[Piggy56]

24. Demorats must vote in 2012

A repug president and congress is downright scary.

[TreasonousBastard]

4. Did I miss something? Seems they didn't bother to mention the changes in...

the Electoral College.

If, say, New York loses one or two seats and Texas gains four, and that's the trend throughout the country, all Democratic presidential candidates are in deep shit for the next 10 years.

And, of course, the House will lean ever more Republican, making the job of governing even more difficult, should a Democrat be in the White House. And thoroughly dreadful for us all if one isn't.

(And the idiotic mouthings from our screech wing doesn't help matters at all.)

[CBHagman]

5. A note on the math and more.

From the article:

The states he carried in 2008 are projected to lose, on balance, six electoral votes to states that his GOP challenger, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, won. That sets a higher bar for Obama before his re-election campaign even starts.

Six electoral votes does not an election make. The more worrying trends are the partisan cast of the redrawing of districts, reception (or lack of) from governors, etc.

Two factors the article does not mention are A) that Tom DeLay, who was instrumental in redrawing Texas, evidently scored a great victory (with recent hardening of the GOP majority in Texas) but also complete disgrace, with his conviction on money laundering and the prospect of imprisonment (not that the press has made much of that); and B) demographics, including a growth in the Hispanic population. I suspect much of the story will be shaped by technology and money as well.

Stay tuned.

[JDPriestly]

8. How much of the growth is in minority communities and immigrant communities?

Those communities tend to vote Democratic? Are non-citizens counted when the census numbers are applied to allocating votes and to redistricting? Because a lot of the growth in the country is actually due to immigrants becoming citizens.

[gkhouston]

18. Yes, non-citizens were counted. n/t

[budkin]

14. Bullshit, the Republican party is dying a slow death while minorities gain on the majority

[AndyTiedye]

20. "CITIZENS UNITED" Supreme Court Ruling Revived the GOP with Unlimited Corporate and Foreign $$$$$$$$

The Republican party was on the ropes and dying, UNTIL
the Supreme Court came out with the "Citizens United" ruling.

That gave them access to unlimited, unaccountable corporate cash, even foreign cash!
They have been on a roll ever since. Is it any wonder, with billions of dollars behind them?

[UrbScotty]

17. Never mind that Obama won THREE HUNDRED SIXTY-FIVE electoral votes.

And that the demographics are rapidly changing in favor of the Democrats.

[John Kerry VonErich]

21. And yet...

The protest by neo-cons from progressive states by refusal to take the census has and will continue to manipulate the EC in their favor. Tell me now if that is not a big deal.

[AndyTiedye]

19. If a Democrat Moves to Georgia His Vote Will Get Eaten by DIEBOLD

[Bandit]

22. In the long run it doesn't look good for Republicans

The Republican Party is mostly grumpy old white men. Most of the younger generation doesn't buy their crap, and as they die off there won't be all that many to replace them. On the other hand the Liberal minded youth are flocking to the Democrats and soon they should have a super majority.. Unless Republicans actually come up with something besides hate and greed they don't have much of a future..I am just sorry I probably won't live long enough to see a truly Liberal Government in America once more, but I know in my heart it will happen..

[pstokely]

25. Won't current young white men age into grumpy old white men?

Or turn Repuke if they get rich?

[HughBeaumont]

23. They'll have to come up with someone better than Palin or Romney if they're to accomplish that.

Just dooonnnnn't see those two as "ace-in-the-hole"s, sorry. Too many negatives for each one.