Al-Sadr supporters take over Najaf

[dsewell]

Breaking news on CNN.com:

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- Supporters of maverick Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr controlled government, religious and security buildings in the holy city of Najaf early Tuesday evening, according to a coalition source in southern Iraq.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/04/06/iraq.main/index.html

[deutsey]

1. How can this possibly be resolved without a major catastrophe?

:evilfrown:

[madrchsod]

5. it is resolved

bush lost his war

[deutsey]

7. And how many people are yet going to lose their lives as a result

of Bush's war?

God help us if Bush gets another four years...

[Raenelle]

15. Bush already won back on May 1. This just shows how desperate they are.

Mission Accomplished. Bring 'em on.

[Ilsa]

41. When is someone in the Pentagon going to say it out loud?

They have that look on their faces, like their afraid to tell the Chimp in the WH what's going on and that it's "Game Over".

[northernsoul]

2. well, this is going swimmingly!

And if we end up damaging any of the numerous sacred shrines and masques in Najaf while trying to extricate the al-Sadr forces, we'll promptly enrage the remaining Shias who are yet to take up arms against us and prompt a whole new round of uprisings.

What was that old Chinese curse about "may you live in interesting times"?

[fryguy]

3. This no longer appears to be "insurgents"

Even if smirkco and his NeoCon handlers keep insisting it is nothing more than an expected "up-tick" in violence in anticipation of June 30, this is sure starting to look like a shit-storm for the occupation forces.....

[NeoConsSuck]

4. No disrespect, but..

it looks like the only ones being pacified are the coalition, at the rate of 8-10 day.

[Raenelle]

16. Approaching VN pacification levels at that number.

Just remember to spell the origin of that loud sucking noise as qWagmire.

[girlphoenix]

37. I think he's just trying to distract from the 9/11 comission scandals...

"Just remember to spell the origin of that loud sucking noise as qWagmire."

So would that be...qWag theDog?

[Cooley Hurd]

6. This is a city of 309,010...

...a pretty big city outside of the Sunni triangle (meaning it's predominantly Shiite).

Not good news for the coalition. :scared:

[Zero Gravitas]

8. Mission Accomplished

Holy Shit! I can't say that I'm surprised (this sort of crap is one of 1,934,267 reason I opposed Bush's War) but it is really disheartening to see things unravel like this. I'm afraid that this is only the beginning. If the Shiites are turning against the occupation then we are in deep deep shit. I can't see how whats going on in Najaf and Fallujah right now can be resolved without making the overall situation worse, but they can't just stand by and let Sadr take over these cities.

[Dhalgren]

29. I think that is exactly what "they" should do.

We should just say, "O.k., now, who else wants to assume authority and responsibility for a town or area? Come on! Step right up! You want to control something? Have at it, because we can't control anything." It is their country, not ours. We all need to keep repeting this mantra - it is their country, not ours.

[Mr.Green93]

9. we need peace negotiations

[NewYorkerfromMass]

10. sounds bad

that's my understatement on the matter.

[Aidoneus]

12. it was bad *before*

these cities are being freed from occupation, and that is called "bad"..

[Dhalgren]

30. Right! With a little luck these free cities can start to heal

and recover from our crimes. I'm sorry, but I am not on the side of the US in this thing. We are in the wrong, period. We could begin the make things right by, say, oh, I don't know... getting the hell out, maybe!

[pfitz59]

11. We were giving it to Chalabi and associates.....

Chalabi and his ilk have been out of Irag for 30-40 years, living cushy lives in London and DC, while the Shiite clerics and their families were living and dying DAILY under Saddam. Did Shrubco think they'd just roll over and let the INC sleezeballs move right in? Would you give all your gold to a distant cousin who sat on his ass for over 40 years while you toiled under the cruelist conditions imaginable? The US alliance with Iraqi "exiles" is a terrible hoax, and it appears the local population is not gonna take it anymore!

[aquart]

13. They were never gonna take it.

And we told BushCo so.

[reprobate]

52. Any bets on Chalabi's life expectancy now.

He is universally hated in iraq. I'd bet that he is number one on the shiia hit parade right now.

[truthspeaker]

14. Good lord! Iraqis are taking over Iraqi government and security buildings!

Next thing you know Iraqis will be asserting ownership over their own petroleum industry! This has gotta stop!

(extreme sarcasm)

[Jazzgirl]

18. Yes truthspeaker and dogs and cats will be living together...

n/t

[David__77]

24. That is funny...

...imagine. Iraqi people having the gall to yell out "the occupation is over!"

[Dark]

61. Yea, but how many more lives is Bu$h going to sacrifice

before the Iraqis finally do?

[Jazzgirl]

17. That can't be right!

Bremer said this morning on CNN that the US was in total control of Iraq. Nothing to see here...move along.... :evilfrown:

[daleo]

19. Now two cities to "pacify"

This whole Bushco dream looks more and more unlikely. It will probably take many more deaths on both sides before Bush/PNAC give up, though. With the seemingly coordinated attacks on several members of the coalition, it looks more and more Tet-like. Bush must be beginning to wonder how he can get Saddam back in power.

[saigon68]

20. * can get Saddam back in power.

He's on ice and available

[leftchick]

31. Rummy said: "Un-coordinated attacks" by

baathists and saddam loyalists! He is insane...

[ChavezSpeakstheTruth]

21. Bremmer sounds like Bush talking about America

"I know if you just report on those few places, it does look chaotic," Bremer said on CNN's "American Morning." "But if you travel around the country, what you find is a bustling economy, people opening businesses right and left, unemployment has dropped.

"The story of the house that doesn't burn down is not much of a story in the news," he said. "The story of the house that does burn down is news."

[Kool Kitty]

50. What the hell is wrong with this man?

Drunk? Insane? Sure, Mr. Bremer-aside from the fact that most of the population has a gun and hates us and this occupation, this thing is a resounding success! (and you're right, Chavez-it does sound like he's talking about America.)

[dixielib]

22. Is there supposed to be a pilgrimage to Najaf next weekend?

I thought I read that a few days ago, there and in Karbula.

[bemildred]

23. You got it. Stay tuned. This is just warming up. nt

[Aidoneus]

27. Thursday

It's called Arba'in, something of a spinoff of Ashura (which was last month).

[bemildred]

28. Changes every year?

Thought it was April last year.
I suppose I could have brain-lock ...
Ah, I see, lunar calendar.

[Aidoneus]

33. it is always on the first 10 days of Muharram on their calendar..

That doesn't coincide with ours. The 10th of Muharram is February 19th/20th or so next year, was March 1st/2nd this year..

[bemildred]

34. Thanks. Brain lock I guess. nt

[Aidoneus]

35. NP

I had to look it up a few days ago. Seems to lose 10ish days per year by calendar comparison (that is, March 13th->1st->Feb 19->etc).

[yellowcanine]

25. Al-Sadr supporters hate democracy that is why they are opposing the U.S.

"liberation" of their country. Don't they know how great freedom is?

[The_Casual_Observer]

32. No No No They hate us for our freedoms

or something like that.

[chelaque liberal]

48. "And because we elect our leaders"

[robertpaulsen]

26. Ali Sistani support would be checkmate for the coalition

Perhaps the most interesting part of this article for me was the acknowledgement of support on behalf of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani.

"A spokesman for al-Sadr, Qais al-Khazaal, said in Najaf that al-Sadr had 'received many letters from other religious leaders' supporting him, mentioning Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani -- Iraqi Shia's most senior cleric.

'Sistani said in his letter that he supported us for standing for what we believe...but that he also that we should try to resolve this matter in a more calm and civil way', Khazaal said."

I see the writing on the wall. Sistani already stated on February 21 that if the U.S. does not pull out its troops after the June 30 transfer, he may call for an intifada. If the U.S. makes martyrs of al-Sadr and his followers, that intifada may come sooner than later.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article5757.htm

[paulk]

38. this is al-Sadr's spokesman talking

who knows if it's true?

Yesterday Al Sistani and other major Shia religious authorities asked Sadr to stop using violence to achieve his ends (I had a link, now I can't find it) - this is probably Sadr's spin on that request.

I doubt very much that Sistani "supports" Sadr. They are rivals. Sistani is the Grand Ayatollah - he's the supreme Shia religious authority in Iraq. Sadr is a junior cleric - his "authority" comes from the number of armed troops he can muster.

This uprising is as much a fight over control amongst the Shia as it is against the coalition.


some background:

http://slate.msn.com/id/2082980/

[Junkdrawer]

39. Good cop / Bad cop ??? n/t

[paulk]

49. It's hard to tell...

There does seem to be a real schism between Al-Sadr and Al-Sistani.

In the long run they both want the same thing - Shiite control of Iraq. Sistani has expressed support for a "democratic" theocracy, (whatever that means), while Sadr wants a straight out theocracy - Shia law, etc. Sistani recognizes that the Sunni and Kurds would never accept that, and has taken a more moderate approach. I doubt he wants all out civil war - though he might not mind Sadr's uprising as a "shot across the bow", as it were. His threat of intifada has got Bremer and Bush crapping their drawers over June 30th, IMHO. If Sistani issues a fatwa against the coalition, then all hell WILL break loose.

There's another whole level to this - Saddam appointed Moqtada Sadr's father Grand Ayatollah because he was an Iraqi - he wanted to diminish Iranian influence over Iraqi's Shiites. When Mohammad Al-Sadr grew too powerful, Saddam had him murdered (along with all of his sons but Moqtada). A lot of Moqtada's influence comes from his martyred father.

Al-Sistani is an Iranian - while his religious authority is supreme in Iraq, it's hard to tell where he stands when it comes to nationalism. Sadr's appeal is not a religious one specifically - it's an appeal to Iraqi nationalism, to throw the invader out. That's why some Sunni factions have come out in his support.

The real question now is what will Sistani do? Who knows? The only real thing we know is that Bremer and the rest of BushCo will probably do the wrong thing.

[robertpaulsen]

53. Good analysis

It's the first time I've read anyone use the word nationalism in regard to the deteriorating situation. But it's the perfect explanation for why Sunnis and Shiites are uniting against the coalition. Only time will tell if Sistani will go with the nationalist flow.

[Junkdrawer]

56. Al-Sistani is like the current face of Iran while Al-Sadr is more..

like Khomeini. Either way, bet your bottom dollar that BushCo will want neither. What BushCo is setting up is a representational scheme where the Shi'a must ally with either the Sunnis or the Kurds to rule - and where Al-Sistani is a tiny minority voice. That way, the "moderate coalition" will want to keep US power handy to prevent the more radical Shi'a from taking over.

And that's why I suspect Good Cop/Bad Cop. Al-Sistani realizes that he will NOT get anywhere near the levers of power as long as BushCo is around, so he unleashes Al-Sadr and hopes that the international community will see him as the compromise.

[robertpaulsen]

44. Good guide on your link, but...

it doesn't back up your assertion that "this uprising is as much a fight over control amongst the Shia as it is against the coalition." Sadr isn't even a Mullah yet, this uprising would not advance his clerical position to the point where he could challenge an Ayatollah on religious law. As far as political power, Sadr does control quite a cadre, and the Sistani "support" may very well be spin at this time, but the rivalry between him and Sistani takes a back seat to their shared rivalry with the coalition. Al-Sadr may express his opposition to the coalition in more radical and forceful terms, but Sistani's opposition, while more subtle and cautioned, could prove to be more powerful. If Sadr push comes to Bremer shove (as it seems to be unfolding), Sistani's threatened intifada mentioned in my prior link may come to pass.

[paulk]

51. see #49 n/t

[DoYouEverWonder]

40. Sistani already did last week

when he said he was through with talking to the US and IRC.

The US is trying to blame the whole thing of al-Sadr, but it was Sistani who sent the signal that the time for talking was over last week.

[Junkdrawer]

36. Don't you just hate it when Iraqis takeover Iraqi cities...

Perhaps we can put together an alliance to oust them. Prove to them once and for all that this kind of aggression won't be tolerated by the international community. What, do they think it's their country and their oil?

[Karenina]

54. Should I bother my "beautiful mind"

about transfer tubes, paraplegics, psychotic-making stress and such?

Noisy brown riff-raff... Off with their heads! How DARE they desecrate the remains of our *corp private snipers. They were INNOCENT CIVILIANS ON A HUMANITARIAN MISSION!!! THE OUTRAGE!!! We have valiant resolve.

THEY WILL ACCEPT OUR DEMOCRACY! (Even if we have to killemalletdagreatbeyondsortemout *and lotso' y'orn too*).

[Eye and Monkey]

59. Is Barb's "Beautiful Mind" as delusional as John Nash's?

I think "Moreso", only without the moments of brilliant insight.

[Frangible]

42. Iraq is an artifical construct of a country

Made up of ethnic groups that hate each other just a little less than they hate us. It's pretty obvious that a stable government will never form in Iraq. Saddam was a bad person, but ruling by fear is the only way to hold together such a hodgepodge violent country.

Assuming if we took out their military, that they would embrace democracy, is pretty ignorant.

[FearandLoathing41]

43. Sistani and Sadr are both owned by the Iranian's

Lets not kid ourselves. When all this falls apart and a new Democratic administration takes office, we will be faced with the threat of a shite super state in the Middle East. The Shite's left to their own devices will turn Iraq into Rwanda, in the first 100 days of Kerry's first term.

WE Democrats better be thinking past the short term of the election and about the long term of how WE are going to deal with foriegn policy...once all those planes and tanks are ours, not BushCo's.

What worries me, is that Kerry will be in the shoes of LBJ,( The ulimate irony for a Vietnan Vet who came home and protested the war.) knee deep in a war that he did not start and unable to extricate himself due to the course of world events.

If Kerry simply cuts and runs and Iraq turns into "The Killing Fields" We the Democrats will be blamed for it in 2008.

The world will not allow us to just pack our bags and abandon Iraq and I suspect, desite the talk, that other nations, will be no faster to commit troops under the UN flag, to a Lebononized Iraq under a Kerry Administration, than they were under a Bush administration.

We need to start thinking of Iraq, not as Bush's disaster, but as a foriegn policy tar baby, thats going to stick to US to, unless we have a very well thought out plan for handling our policy in the Middle East, while at the same time, assuring the safety of the United States from new terrorist attack.

[daleo]

45. It is the same as Viet Nam

The only way out, is out. There are no magic answers. Dump Bush, say sorry, and leave. Then hope for the best.

[saigon68]

58. Time to exit stage right

Who will be the last person Killed in IRAQ-Nam ?

[robertpaulsen]

46. Welcome FearandLoathing41!

Good post. I'm not sure that I agree with the Rwanda analogy, but the LBJ analogy definitely has merit. If it comes to that, and I think it will, then regardless of whether Kerry increases troops or cuts and runs, there will be "The Killing Fields" in Iraq. After all, in Southeast Asia we increased the troops AND cut and ran because increasing occupying troops against a popular insurgency never works. Waist deep in the big sandy...

[PassingFair]

47. Calm down, Fear & Loathing, I've got 2 letters for you...

U.N.

[paulk]

55. You have touched on some major concerns

The worst outcome of this whole mess would be for an Al-Sadr to come to power in Iraq. An anti-western radical fundamentalist Islamic state sitting on top of the world's second largest oil reserves.

The situation in Iraq could get real bad, real fast - and you're right - this is not just Bush's tar baby, it's our tar baby, and it's going to stick to all of us for a long, long time.

[sistersofmercy]

57. Excellent post, it deserves a thread of its own!

Welcome to DU, FearandLoathing41! :hi:

[anakie]

60. if al Sadr has taken refuge in the Imam Ali Mosque

and the US goes after him there I reckon the last few days will look like a picnic compared to the shit that will go down if they go in.