Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

[alp227]

Source: The New York Times

The number of violent crimes in the United States dropped significantly last year, to what appeared to be the lowest rate in nearly 40 years, a development that was considered puzzling partly because it ran counter to the prevailing expectation that crime would increase during a recession.

In all regions, the country appears to be safer. The odds of being murdered or robbed are now less than half of what they were in the early 1990s, when violent crime peaked in the United States. Small towns, especially, are seeing far fewer murders: In cities with populations under 10,000, the number plunged by more than 25 percent last year.

The news was not as positive in New York City, however. After leading a long decline in crime rates, the city saw increases in all four types of violent lawbreaking — murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault — including a nearly 14 percent rise in murders. But data from the past few months suggest the city’s upward trend may have slowed or stopped.

Criminology experts said they were surprised and impressed by the national numbers, issued on Monday by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and based on data from more than 13,000 law-enforcement agencies. They said the decline nationally in the number of violent crimes, by 5.5 percent, raised the question, at least in some places, of to what extent crime could continue to fall — or at least fall at the same pace as the past two years. Violent crimes fell nearly the same amount in 2009.

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/24/us/24crime.html

[LetTimmySmoke]

1. End the failed War on Pot.

That'll reduce your crime.

[Renew Deal]

4. Crime levels are down from the pre-war on drugs levels.

:shrug:

[Recursion]

30. If you set aside 9/11, the oughts were safer for cops than the 50s.

And yet the lower crime rates get, the more shrill the moral panic about crime becomes.

[JonLP24]

21. Love your screen name

Not a Giants fan but am a huge Lincecum fan.

[MellowDem]

2. Always good news...

there are lots of theories out there. Some say abortion, some say our huge prison population (I don't agree with this one), etc. It is a bright spot in America, that's for sure, when everything else seems to be getting worst, to have crime going down. Now, it is true that the US is more violent than a lot of other developed nations, so this isn't extraordinary, but it must mean something in American society is changing for the better.

Personally, I think that a lot of the racial and cultural upheavels and huge shifts in population from forty years ago has kind of settled down now. There aren't tons of new neighborhoods being created through the process of racial discrimination and segregation, and I think communities have stabilized and formed stronger bonds that allow them to cope with their problems better. In many areas of the developed world, each town has such a strong history and community that is a real asset. The US is still brand-spanking new in many areas, especially in many neighborhoods where the population has shifted fast over the years.

[Downwinder]

9. Face it, the crooks have gone to Wall Street or into politics.

[thaddeus_flowe]

35. Interesting and sound theories.

Call me a paranoid, but I like to believe this data is more than coincidentally proportional to the popularity of Cop shows on television.

You know the whole CSI, NYPD Blue, and Law and Order media machine telling everyone that crime does not pay and that you will be caught.

[sofa king]

42. I have a counter-theory: we're all criminals now.

I was just thinking about this the other day, about how virtually all Americans have some contempt for the law. I suspect that most of us at one time or another have done one or more of the following:

Speeding
Texting while driving
Drinking and driving
Smoking weed
Shoplifting or petty theft
Grifting and scamming
Fighting
Sodomy, statutory rape, and other sex crimes
Illegally downloading media/software
Cheating on taxes
Fixing elections
Attempting to murder political opponents with anthrax
Acting as an accomplice or failing to report any of the above

Our body of law has expanded to outlaw a huge percentage of the recreational activities in which we regularly indulge, like drinking and fornicating outdoors. And, in a world where virtually all of those things can be checked for and found out upon closer examination, anonymity is only preserved by not coming to the attention of the authorities. The last Presidency also showed everyone that one can continue to commit crimes at will so long as one can hold out past the statute of limitations and/or by covering up.

That means solving problems without involving the authorities.

Therefore my hypothesis is that it's the rising percentage of unreported crimes, violent and otherwise, that is showing up as a declining overall crime rate.

Polling should be able to reveal this trend. I wonder if anyone studies the rate of unreported crimes?

[sofa king]

60. Here's an example.

In 2003, it was estimated that 51% of violent crimes went unreported:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/09/09/national/main521212.shtml

I'd be willing to bet that the figure has climbed since then, in some proportion which would also define most of the drop in observed violent crime.

[hedgehog]

51. That is an interesting proposition. The notion that you will get caught

is a real deterrence. no punishment is scary enough to be a deterrence if you think you won't get caught.

[wordpix]

63. I wouldn't get complacent ---I teach in inner city public schools

and there are plenty of BIG problems there: teenage pregnancy, poverty, truancy leading to drug addiction and crime (break-ins after people go to work is very popular among our truants), very poor basic academic skills to land our hs graduates in the jobless ranks, violence in the home, poor social and coping skills, hair-trigger tempers, slights that turn to fights and gun violence...

It's a pretty bad situation. I really feel for the good kids who try to do the right thing in the face of all this.

[Renew Deal]

3. Is it that crime doesn't pay?

Have people come to a point where the punishment makes the crime not worth it? Do people really not want to be in jail? Do people see a better path for themselves in bad situations than in jail?

[Iliyah]

7. Inside jobs

throughout the business sector. So much bullshit going on, and so much profit being made off the backs of the middle class the police can't watch everything. In the poorer sections, overall, sad to say - oh well.

[Renew Deal]

10. So you're saying there aren't enough cops to report the crimes to?

Ummm, OK.

[dorkulon]

5. Internet.

Everyone's too fat and distracted to bother killing each other. I may be projecting.

[kestrel91316]

6. Or can't afford a getaway car anymore.

[AndyTiedye]

49. Can't Afford Gas for the Getaway Car

[whatchamacallit]

8. Lol! (nt)

[eallen]

12. I agree, for different reason. The internet makes crooks look stupid.

Messaging is better propagated than prior.

:hippie:

[blue neen]

11. No money for gasoline for getaway cars...

:shrug:

[kiranon]

13. Fewer young people; aging population results in less crime. n/t

[eridani]

19. Bada bing! n/t

[mistertrickster]

24. Steven Levitt tested that in Freakonomics. Found that population aging

is far too slow to account for the rapid drop in violent crime.

[Manifestor_of_Light]

76. He linked the crime drop to legal abortion.

he showed that the crime drop in California 18 yrs after abortion was legalized there, was before the crime drop in the rest of the nation after Roe v. Wade made abortion legal in all 50 states in 1973.

[SomeGuyInEagan]

14. Clearly, the "experts" don't listen to NPR

From the story:

"There's only one problem: The Depression years had very little crime.

With the economy's current troubles, many people assume a crime wave is just around the corner. But criminologists say that's just an American myth. "

entire read at: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=97234406

[bananas]

50. And during the roaring 20's and the 50s and 60s crime rates rose

Thanks for that NPR story:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=97234406

...
Just look at the 1920s, says David Kennedy, director of the Center for Crime Prevention at John Jay College of Criminal Studies.

"It was a period of booming economic prosperity, the roaring '20s, and very high crime," he says.

The 1950s and '60s were the same. The economy was great, but crime rates rose every single year.

Experts say there will always be some people who take to robbing liquor stores in tough times. But those people were already likely to rob stores even in good times, making it a statistical wash. And there's something else: When the economy goes bad, many people move in with parents or relatives, and they stay home more — both of which appear to have a calming effect, experts say
...

[Uben]

15. Murder, rape, robbery, assault.....

.......these are the crimes they measure? I bet identity theft and hacking has replaced some of these as an easier way to get money, and a lot less dangerous. Also, harder to get caught. The side effect would likely be fewer assaults and murders.

[Recursion]

31. I've seen numbers that say the only category of crime that is up...

...is theft of items worth over $100, and that is probably entirely because of the invention of the iPod.

[mistertrickster]

16. Abortion is legal and safe.

Wanted children don't grow up to kill people.

[truthisfreedom]

17. You got it. It's been known for years now, that's the main reason for the drastic reduction in

violent crime.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_effect

[JCMach1]

18. Freakonomics

[mistertrickster]

23. Correct . . . nt

[Exultant Democracy]

70. This is obviously one of the major social determinants for lower crime rates.

[MadLinguist]

20. Hmm, ever seen "The Wire"? I suspect some widely adopted measurement standard

or widely adopted software to make the measurements is having an effect that is not taken into account here. The reason I think of "The Wire" is because of the point that every season drove home: wherever you have a well known standard for measuring anything at all, both reality and gamers tend to slip past it better and better over time. There is lots of evidence that hospitals "upcode" for billing purposes once they are familiar with the system of ranking and how counting within the database proceeds. So my guess is that law enforcement "downcodes" for political purposes.

[DeSwiss]

22. Or maybe.....

...people are evolving.

[Recursion]

32. It's funny; falling crime rates have been "stunning" analysts for 15 years

It's as if they all forget that they've been going down since the mid-90s.

[juajen]

43. Funny.

[rayofreason]

34. People do evolve...

...but the spread of significant variations across a population (say, lactose tolerance in adults) take several hundred years.

The change is probably sociological, not biological.

[DeSwiss]

57. Things may not take.....

...as "long to change" as you http://www.projectworldawareness.com/2010/10/terrifying-scientific-discovery-strange-emissions-by-sun-are-suddenly-mutating-matter/">think.

[Zorra]

25. Everyone has cell phones and cell phone cameras, that

may be part of it.

[dreamnightwind]

33. Sounds plausible to me

It's very easy for anyone to snap a quick pic of a crime in progress. I'd think that might enter a criminal's mind.

[Mopar151]

38. Surveillance cameras, police cameras, too.

Not only catches crooks, but holds many of them up as fools more than worthy of ridicule. We have replaced "Candid Camera" with "World's Dumbest Crooks" and "Cops"

[X_Digger]

53. Well, on the surface it sounds plausible..

But if you look at the UK and the 'big brother is watching' phenomenon writ large, it doesn't pan out.

[AndiMer]

26. Recommend

[Lugnut]

27. Really?

I must be living in the wrong place. Drug use is rampant and gang activity has been confirmed by area police forces. Shootings are in the news almost every day. Go figure.

[Recursion]

29. Remember the 90s?

In the big coastal cities there were dozens of murders a day. Now there are dozens a year.

It has gotten worse in the smaller cities, though; the Richmonds and Omahas.

[Recursion]

28. Roe v. Wade and high incarceration rates

Prevent the birth of poor young men, and lock up the ones who are born for long periods of time. Crime rates will drop.

[reggie the dog]

36. carry concealed laws??? i think so, put some fear into the crooks

crooks know that more and more "normal" people are carrying guns LEGALLY now thansk to laws changing.

[MJJP21]

37. ABORTION

The fact is as someone pointed out in a recent book that when abortion became legal all those unwanted children never were born to create a problem. There is a strong correlation. It may be macabre but that is the results of abortion of not just here but elsewhere in the world where this phenomenon has occurred.

[nobodyspecial]

54. Freakanomics

It was a solid argument. And given all of these limitations being placed on access to birth control and abortion, we'll probably be seeing a new crime wave in 15 to 20 years.

[modestybl]

55. It is not "macabre" as you say...

... the fact that women who are under duress are not forced to go through a miserable pregnancy for a child they didn't want? That only makes perfect sense to me. Given the number of children in overstressed foster care systems now, adoptions would not have been sufficient to handle these children, even if the women were willing to simply give them up.

[musette_sf]

65. thank you

"macabre" my butt.

[Hubert Flottz]

39. Prolly due to Fudgy Math...

[Octafish]

40. More money to be made through Wall Street and legal pyramid schemes.

Traditional crime is hard work.

[BR_Parkway]

41. Over crowded courts and plea-bargaining are probably somewhat in play

here as well. The article doesn't address it - but if murders went down, how were Manslaughter convictions counted?

With all the move to structured sentencing both prosecutors (who want a quick conviction without the expense of a trial) and defense lawyers (who want to cut the best deal for their client) are both going to know the maximum and likely penalties for a conviction of either crime right down to which judge is hearing the case.

[Yon_Yonson]

44. Makes one wonder ...

Why the push for 'concealed carry laws' if law enforcement is doing such a good job?

[dizbukhapeter]

45. Gun sales are through the roof

Gun sales are higher than ever and more and more people are getting concealed carry licenses. Yet crime rates go down.

[NickB79]

61. Maybe increased CCW laws really do reduce crime after all?

That's what the NRA has claimed for years, and now we see crime rates falling as more and more people own firearms for self-defense. Is it cause and effect, or coincidence? I've got no clue, but it at least appears that increased gun ownership doesn't seem to be making crime worse like many originally feared it would.

[Viking12]

72. That hypothesis doesn't really hold up under scrutiny

Here in WI there is no conceal carry and we have nearly the lowest crime rates in the country while Texas, Louisiana, and Florida are high crime states. Clearly there are other factors at work.

Lead abatement?

[AngryAmish]

46. Don't forget that we took lead out of gas in the 70s

Plus we are aborting much of our criminal class.

[snooper2]

73. you being series?

:rofl:

[bemildred]

47. That's because enforcement has little to do with it, all after the fact, so to speak.

Cops don't deter violent crime (much).

[Bragi]

48. More Latinos=Less crime?

Maybe Mexican and other Latinos who are new to the U.S. are not as lawless as American-born citizens?

[MellowDem]

62. Look at Mexico, heh...

poor theory, by the way.

No, I don't think one's race or nationality or ethnicity alone makes one more likely to commit a crime. But some guys in the KKK like the way you think, just not who you're scapegoating.

[Bragi]

67. You wrote:

"I don't think one's race or nationality or ethnicity alone makes one more likely to commit a crime."

I'm not sure how you would infer that from my words. I was positing that maybe the Latino immigrant population is *more* law abiding than the average non-Latino American citizen. More law abiding as in *less* likely to commit crimes.

You then wrote:

"But some guys in the KKK like the way you think, just not who you're scapegoating."

What the fuck?

You've turned my point totally around and now seem to be implying -- from what I allegedly said -- that I'm "scapegoating" someone, just like the KKK.

Are you fucking kidding me? Is that supposed to pass for fair comment, or serious debate, or what?

Feel free to explain yourself. Set me straight if I've got this wrong.

If I don't have it wrong, then you should check your attitude.

[MellowDem]

68. Your theory...

is that Mexicans and other Latino immigrants are less prone to crime than American citizens.

You gave no reasoning beyond their nationality/ethnicity. So I thought that was your reasoning. Sorry if I misunderstood.

[Bragi]

69. No problem

I cited Mexicans only to say maybe this particular immigrant community is less prone to crime once they get to the U.S than other Americans.

I can think of lots of factors why this might be so, none of which have to do with "race" or "ethnicity" at all, but with the group's socialization before and after they arrived in the U.S, how they are required to live in their new country, their position in their chosen society and their opportunities there relative to where they came from, etc.

It's for these reasons that I think it is hypothetically possible that a group could even come from a country with a very high level of criminality, and immigrate to place where what drives this criminality is no longer present, and where they can then live out their lives in a manner that is even more law-abiding than their new neighbors.

Anyway, I regret that I apparently misunderstood and over-reacted to your earlier comment.

Can I buy you a beer?

:beer:

[musiclawyer]

52. Someone above said

The change is probably sociological, not biological.

I agree in part. You take into account legal abortion. Then you take into account the incarceration an entire generation, and there is no more learned criminal behavior. Junior might be at risk to be a violent criminal but he has less role models around to show him how to be a real pro at violence. Same thing would happen if you violated civil rights and forcefully sterilized all women under the poverty line. ...... But there's more.

I do think that the conditions in prison are so atrocious that there is real feedback to the communities, and young people ( mostly young men) just don't want to go there. Instead of doing violent crime, they will just engage in lower risk drug trade work.


Finally there is a general understanding in the populace that modern technology (learned from TV) makes it so easy to tie evidence to individuals and/or record crimes in progress. This acts as a real disincentive--one that did not exist 20 years ago.

I'm not complaining. I just wish that the war on drugs ( on our own people) would end. We would then have even less violent crime

[WheelWalker]

56. A side-effect of Medical Marijuana?

[Mr. Jefferson]

58. That's because they are NOT experts.

[Rex]

59. Well I guess they should be looking for another job, since clearly

they suck at predicting crime rates.

[riderinthestorm]

64. Atheism? Seriously, there are few atheists incarcerated in prison

And the rates of people who claim they are not believers is climbing.... :shrug: As good an explanation as any?

[unkachuck]

66. people have....

....less money and fewer things to fight over or steal....and pessimism, pessimism is rampant in our country today even among potential criminals....you have to have an optimistic outlook and attitude in order to believe you'll succeed in committing a crime....

....and the Obama factor....he represents ethnicity, the working class, hope and less hostility to power....an example, just listen to an Obama defender justifying a continuation of bushco policy....

[Exultant Democracy]

71. I was attack fiercly on DU when I pointed this out in a discussion about rape in the US

I was rather surprised. I thought only nutter fundies thought that crime rate were going up (inspite of the facts) they feel that modern society with its porno and abortions must be getting worse so crime must be going up.

[KurtNYC]

74. Cattle rustling, horse thievery way down... white collar crime way up

but they don't measure that.

Bernie Madoff alone was $7.2 billion in crime. That is the equivalent of stealing 360,000 cars worth $20,000 each, 1.4 million bank robberies (at $5,000 each) or mugging 1 billion people for $7 each.

[Viking 1]

75. Damn!

That's gonna make it harder for the wingnuts to keep scaring the country. :rofl: