Expert warns California to brace for big quake by September

[PfcHammer]

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20040415/ts_alt_afp/us_quake_predict_040415142014

Expert warns California to brace for big quake by September

Thu Apr 15,10:20 AM ET Add U.S. National - AFP to My Yahoo!

LOS ANGELES (AFP) - A US geophysicist has set the scientific world ablaze by claiming to have cracked a holy grail: accurate earthquake prediction, and warning that a big one will soon hit southern California.

Russian-born University of California at Los Angeles professor Vladimir Keilis-Borok says he can foresee major quakes by tracking minor temblors and historical patterns in seismic hotspots that could indicate more violent shaking is on the way.

And he has made a chilling prediction that a quake measuring at least 6.4 magnitude on the Richter scale will hit a 31,200-square-kilometer (12,000-square-mile) area of southern California by September 5.

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[arcane1]

1. figures..

there is a Nightwish gig in LA on Sept 1


damn you geology!

[proud patriot]

2. Shoot

planning on going to legoland in Aug.

[peterh]

3. Hmmmm….

maybe I’ll end up with the beachfront property I’ve always wanted….there’s a bunch of repug owned properties currently in my way….

[GregW]

4. See you down in Arizona Bay!

[Fridays Child]

6. Tucson By the Sea...

...is so lovely in the spring. :)

[slutticus]

15. The only way to fix it...

...is to flush it all away.

[tinanator]

27. goodbye you lizard scum!

rip bill

[demdave]

5. DAMN that Rove!!! Will he stop at nothing??

Sorry, I just wanted to be the first to somehow blame this on Rove.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

7. Let's see...

...ongoing war in Afghanistan that nobody seems to remember...

...ongoing war in Iraq that is careening out of control....

...the "jobless recovery" continues to be, well, jobless...

Hey, what do you say we top it off with a big earthquake in California followed by a Cat 5 hurricane this coming summer!

Yikes.

[Just Me]

12. Sounds like an "armageddon" obsession to me *LOL* EOM

[Ediacara]

8. And of course Keilis-Borok will COMPLETELY forget about predicting this

When September comes and goes and nothing happens....

[pmbryant]

9. Sounds like this may be legitimate

These guys are geophysicists and have made 3 predictions, 2 of which were borne out, according to the article.

Not much to go on, but an intriguingly positive track record (albeit minimal) so far.

:shrug:

--Peter

[Ediacara]

10. I am completely unconvinced at this moment

You're right though, if it DOES happen, my interest will be peaked, and if they COULD get a sample size of oh say, thousands, then I'd say, "You're methods actually work."

At this time though, with a sample of three, I don't really care if they are geophysicists. I'm coming to the realization that there is a lot of good geology out there and a lot of quack geology too, and right now it's FAR too early to tell with these guys :-)

[pmbryant]

13. Of course you're right

Normally that's my reaction to these kind of news items too. (Though I could probably be convinced of some partial utility of their method with only a sample size of dozens, if the success rate is high enough.)

Still, 2 out of 3 is 2 better than most earthquake predictors I've heard of in the past. :-)

--Peter

[54anickel]

16. Crap, now I've got that Meatloaf song stuck in my head!

Now don't be sad
cuz 2 outta 3 ain't bad

[havocmom]

21. Unstick that song by replacing it

Day after day
more people come to LA...

Back in the 70s there was a seismologist with a decent track record for predicting quakes about a week or two before they occurred. His method? He admitted to checking the LA Times classified and tracking lost pet ads. Seems there were more critters missing prior to big quakes. Didn't know if they were trying to bail or if there was some sort of electro magnetic field variance that made it more likely they would get disoriented. He checked several newspapers and tracked lost dogs and cats.

[pmbryant]

22. I heard about that guy when I lived in LA

I don't recall ever seeing any solid evidence that his predictions were any better than chance, though.

But he did have a bit of a following, that's for sure.

--Peter

[skooooo]

11. Clinton's fault!!!!

[slutticus]

14. There's no quake....

....it's just historical information!!!

[i have issues]

19. Northridge rattled me bigtime,

then a move to the central coast last year, and San simeon shook me really good too,...I'm not sure how much more of this crap I can take...(the * administration that is...) earthquakes....piffle.

[shanti]

17. wonderful

that's JUST what we need after all we've been through x(

[calimary]

28. BUT... talk about stealing headlines from the republi-CONS.

And I live here in L.A. Shows ya what I'M willing to sacrifice to beat bush!

[bigtime]

18. predicting earthquakes in California

is much like predicting snow in Antartica, it seems to me. just a matter of time, isn't it?

[bain_sidhe]

20. Crankin' up the E.L.F. generators, are they?

:tinfoilhat:

Sorry. Feelin very tinfoilhattish tonight. Don't mind me, it'll pass.

[leesa]

23. Could be. Also coincides with the annual offer of earthquake insurance

mandated by law. Hmmm...

[AlFrankenFan]

24. Hot damn this is the absolute LAST thing my family needs

And the people of California. I mean, please, God, we've suffered through a recall election and ended up with a steroid taking groper as a governor! Isn't that enough?

Wait, I guess it's for Reagan, ain't it? :shrug:

Well, If I can help it, I will plan for a vacation in some place far away...

I've said it before, and I'll say it again - I hate California.

[Oreegone]

25. It is Clintons fault

His enormous penis will fall and shake the continent....

[WhereIsMyFreedom]

26. Quick

Get him another intern so he can keep it up.