Dem poll: Darling, Pasch in dead heat in Senate recall (WI)

[iwishiwas]

Source: jsonline





Dem poll: Darling, Pasch in dead heat in Senate recall



By Jason Stein of the Journal Sentinel

July 15, 2011 3:11 p.m. |(48) Comments

Madison -- Sen. Alberta Darling is in a dead heat with her Democratic challenger in next month's recall election, according to a new poll released by the Democratic party.

Darling (R-River Hills) slightly trailed her challenger Rep. Sandy Pasch (D-Whitefish Bay), who had 47% of likely voters to Darling 46%, a difference that was within the poll's margin of error.

The poll done for Democrats by the Mellman Group showed that Pasch has closed the gap between her and Darling from another survey done in May that showed Darling with a 9 percentage point lead.

The poll surveyed 350 likely voters and was done on July 13 and 14. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points......

Read more: http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/125653323.html

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I do not know much about this poll but i sure hope it is somewhere near the truth as it would be fantastic if Darling would lose. She is such a hypocrit!!

[elocs]

1. What's important for Democrats: turnout, turnout, turnout!!! Everybody votes, no excuses. n/t

[iwishiwas]

2. "Prosser won Senate District 8 by 15.4%, indicating a very conservative district".

This is a good post. It IS a conservative district. What has changed if anything? conservatives usually dig in and do NOT change.


Peter64 - Jul 15, 2011 3:57 PM


2 2
This poll is interesting .. it is vastly different than the most recent "poll" in April, with Prosser vs. Kloppenburg on the ballot.

Prosser won Senate District 8 by 15.4%, indicating a very conservative district.

Either a lot of people have changed their politics since April, or this new poll is off.

[No Elephants]

8. Maybe they realized that electing a male supreme court justice who put

a choke hold on a female fellow supreme court justice may have been a mistake and they're embarrassed?

[iwishiwas]

10. I hope they think about that as they go to the polls.

[Bjorn Against]

16. I don't think you can compare this to the Supreme Court race

Many people believe that judges should not be chosen based on politics, in an ideal world there would be merit to this but we both know that we do not live in an ideal world and politics does enter into judicial races. Many people still buy into the illusion that judges are neutral fact finders however and these people almost always favor the incumbent, for this reason I don't think we can use any of the Prosser vs. Kloppenburg results to predict the recall outcomes as they are very different races from an electoral perspective.

[pscot]

18. The recount and Prosser's behavior since

may have some of those folks feeling voter's remorse. That poll is wonderful news.

[LiberalAndProud]

3. GOTV.

[iwishiwas]

4. But here is some really big news. On a conference call with reporters earlier today,

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/07/13/994260/-Real-Democrats-win-Wisconsin-recall-primaries;-all-three-incumbent-Democrats-hold-solid-leads

......But here is some really big news. On a conference call with reporters earlier today, Democratic Party of Wisconsin chair Mike Tate said that their internal polling shows the three Democratic facing recalls, Senators Bob Wirch, Dave Hansen and Jim Holperin, all over 50 percent against their best-known challengers. Tate also said the party would be releasing the polling memo on this later in the week.

This is not much of a surprise in the case of Wirch and Hansen, as neither was expected to face much trouble in these recalls. However, in the case of Holperin, it is really big news. Holperin's district is significantly more red-leaning than any of the others where Democrats face recalls, and as such there was legitimate worry he was threatened. If Holperin has a solid lead, then there is a much clearer path for Democrats netting three seats they need to flip control of the state Senate.

We're slapping down cynical Republican tricks and putting the pieces in place to pull off an historic victory. Winning in Wisconsin could well serve as a turning point nationwide in the fight against austerity and the erosion of workers' rights.:) :) :) :)

[Vidar]

6. Thanks for the update. I'm very of proud of you for the fight you're putting up.

[iwishiwas]

13. we keep trying.

[No Elephants]

11. Good for them and good for you! You just restored my faith in Wisconsin,

which, I admit, waned when I read the OP.

Go get 'em!

[No Elephants]

5. Dead heat. Crikey! Are you kidding me?

Seriously, I'm going to have a problem getting worked up over the suffering of that state.

If dead heat is the best they can do after all that turmoil, I just have to accept that most voters there love them some Republicans, no matter what said Republicans do to them and their state.

I feel bad for the Democratic legislators who fought so hard and for the state employees, though.

[iwishiwas]

9. pasch is gaining in a VERY conservative district. dead heat

is good. now to get out the vote!!

[iwishiwas]

7. Now you know why the GOP is in a hurry to redistrict by adding lots Republicans to competitive areas

Friday, July 15, 2011
Pasch Up By 1% Over Darling In Poll

Now you know why the GOP is in a hurry to redistrict by adding lots Republicans to competitive areas, making it easier for embattled incumbents like Alberta Darling, (R), to win back 'her' seat in 2012 if she is defeated by Sandy Pasch, (D).....



http://thepoliticalenvironment.blogspot.com/2011/07/pasch-up-by-1-over-darling-in-poll.html

[N7Shepard]

12. Oh man, imagine how Walker is going to react to the senate getting flipped!

[aquart]

14. So the election hinges on the unlikely voters.

[julian09]

15. The Wisconsin Dems need to do more

especially with voter suppression tactics and redistricting. They got out for the rallies, just for the right to be represented. Now show up for the vote that will free you from the repug tyranny. Take your family, friends, coworkers don't rely on polls, be a part of history. Don't be lulled into complacency, be prepared to comply with all the voting rules educate your friends. good luck

[Merlot]

17. Maybe that half million dollar publicity stunt/temper tantrum fake dems

thing will end up working in your favor. Now everyone has seen just how low the repubs will sink, and the dems have another month to do some solid campaigning and GOTV.

Good luck!

[toddwv]

19. Pasch needs to be up at least 10% if not more

otherwise, her lead will be taken "care" of with another "Oh, looky! Silly me forgot to include these 50,000 votes in the count."

[mysuzuki2]

20. I drove through Mequon Wi today and saw

many more Pasch than Darling signs. This is encouraging since Mequon is usually pretty republican.