STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday, November 2, 2011

[Pale Blue Dot]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday, November 2, 2011

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 1, 2011

Dow 11,657.96 -297.05 (-2.55%)
Nasdaq 2,606.96 -77.45 (-2.97%)
S&P 500 1,218.28 -35.02 (-2.87%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.05 +0.06 (+2.76%)
30-Year Bond 3.07 +0.07 (+2.23%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 12

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Pale Blue Dot]

1. Today's Reports

Nov 02 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 10/29 0.2% NA NA 4.9%
Nov 02 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts Oct +12.6% NA NA +211.5%
Nov 02 08:15 ADP Employment Change Oct 130K 100K 91K
Nov 02 10:30 Crude Inventories 10/29 NA NA 4.735M
Nov 02 12:30 FOMC Rate Decision Nov 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2011/10/31-04/#ixzz1cXzNRFHz

[Roland99]

17. ADP - U.S. private-sector jobs up 110,000 in October (mfg declined 8,000)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/adp-number-confirms-relentless-erosion-us-manufacturing-base

[Pale Blue Dot]

2. Oil near $93 as EU plans talks on Greek debt vote

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose to near $93 a barrel Wednesday in Asia amid news the Greek prime minister has been summoned by the leaders of Germany and France to explain his surprise decision to hold a referendum on the debt-stricken country's latest rescue package.

Benchmark crude for December delivery was up 75 cents at $92.94 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell $1 to settle at $92.19 in New York on Tuesday.

Brent crude was up 47 cents at $110.01 a barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange in London.

Greek prime minister George Papandreou said earlier this week that he would call a referendum vote on the agreement to cut Greece's debt level, provide the country's fresh rescue loans and require bondholders to accept 50 percent losses.

http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Pale Blue Dot]

3. U.S. Stock Futures Pare Gains Before Federal Reserve Interest-Rate Meeting

U.S. stock-index futures pared gains, following the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index biggest two-day slump in a month, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s latest policy statement.

Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in December advanced 0.2 percent to 1,226.5 at 7:07 a.m. in New York after earlier climbing as much as 1.1 percent. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures expiring the same month gained 8 points, or 0.1 percent, to 11,690.

Thirty one S&P 500 companies are due to report results today, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Seventy four percent of companies that have reported results since Oct. 11 have topped analysts’ estimates for per-share profit, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Stocks fell yesterday as investors speculated that Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s pledge to hold a referendum threatens the euro area’s revised bailout package. The decline followed the best monthly gain for the S&P 500 since 1991. The drop cut the index’s value to 12.8 times the reported earnings of its constituent companies. That’s 22 percent below the gauge’s five-decade average of 16.4, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/u-s-stock-index-futures-rally-before-fed-meeting-on-policy-easing-review.html

[Po_d Mainiac]

12. And the Bernank will say

"Are handlers still need free money so we'll leave the rate at zirp. That inflation thingy is just a little more non-transitory than we thought, but who coulda known?"

"Housing continues to be a drag, so we're looking at nuking a couple cities to relieve the situation"

"We still have lots of untested gimicks left in the shed, but we'll stick with throwing money at our bankster friends for the foreseeable future."

"That said, it's all Europe's fault."

[xchrom]

20. speaking of that...Fed Lays Ground for More Large-Scale Asset Purchases

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/fed-seen-laying-ground-for-more-large-scale-asset-purchases.html

Federal Reserve officials are probably engineering a third round of large-scale asset purchases, while they are unlikely to announce a decision today, according to economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

Sixty-nine percent of those surveyed say Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will embark on a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3, with a plurality of 36 percent predicting the move in the first quarter of next year, according to the poll of 42 economists from Oct. 26-31.

“We are becoming increasingly persuaded that QE3 is coming, this time focused on purchases of mortgage-backed securities,” said Dana Saporta, U.S. economist at Credit Suisse in New York. “The best guess is at this meeting they’ll try to build some consensus around the idea and lay the groundwork for eventual purchases.”

Fed officials are weighing further easing even after economic growth last quarter accelerated to the fastest pace in a year. Vice Chairman Janet Yellen and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said in speeches last month that more action may be needed to reduce an unemployment rate stuck around 9 percent or higher for 30 months. Governor Daniel Tarullo said the Fed should consider buying housing debt to lower mortgage rates and spur growth.

[Demeter]

35. He can't wait for Spring

Uncle Ben will slip a mickey in for Xmas...he can't afford to be the Grinch this year.

[Demeter]

43. In fact, the PPT is out today

[Warpy]

4. Welcome back! (first rec today)

Can't sleep, waiting for pills to kick in, too early for much market news except what you've already posted.

[xchrom]

5. You're back! How are you? Nt

[Demeter]

6. Gene Frieda: Europe’s Dying Bank Model

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/10/gene-frieda-europes-dying-bank-model.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

Yves here. Frieda makes a very important point in this Project Syndicate column, that of the role of the banking system in the European debt crisis. On one level, it may seem trivial to say that the sovereign debt crisis is the result of financial crisis. But the Eurozone leadership has not drilled into the next layer: how did this come about? The superficial explanation, that they all ate too much US subprime debt and got really sick, is superficial and shifts attention away from the real issues. European banks have huge balance sheets with a lot of low-return investments. I did some consulting work for some European banks over a decade ago (one of the remarkable things about banking is how little things change over time) and they tended to target commodity areas of banking in the US, not simply because that was where they could break in, but also because the returns were tolerable (although they did hope to move up the food chain into more lucrative business).

Frieda argues that merely having banks raise capital ratios to the 9% level stipulated in the current version of the Eurozone rescue is inadequate. Absent more aggressive measures, “no amount of capital will restore investors’ faith in eurozone banks.”

By Gene Frieda, a global strategist for Moore Europe Capital Management. Cross posted with author permission from Project Syndicate.

The good news for Europe is that it will not reenact the dramatic collapse of Lehman Brothers. The European Central Bank’s unlimited ability to provide liquidity ensures that. But European leaders have yet to recognize that old bank business models are obsolete, and that reliance on private-sector leverage for balance-sheet repair of both sovereigns and banks is doomed to failure.

Two years into the crisis, the authorities have correctly identified four crucial problems – sovereign debt, bank capital, the risk of a Greek default, and deficient growth. But they have yet to agree on cause and effect. Understanding the obsolescence of most European banks’ business models is absolutely crucial to sorting that out. In general, the eurozone has outsized banks (assets equivalent to 325% of GDP) that are highly leveraged (the 15 largest banks’ leverage is 28.9 times their equity capital). They are also dependent on large quantities of wholesale debt – totaling €4.9 trillion (27% of total eurozone loans), with €660 billion maturing in the next two years – to fund low-yielding assets. According to Barclays Capital, the 15 largest banks increased their returns on equity by 58% between 1998 and 2007, with 90% of the gain coming from higher leverage. Returns have since collapsed. This model’s viability depends on large amounts of cheap leverage, supported by implicit government backing. While leverage normally becomes scarce and expensive during recessions, this time declining confidence in sovereign debt also has increased the cost of capital. Government borrowing costs, which anchor banks’ own funding, normally fall during recessions. But, as “risk-free” rates have risen six-fold in the past two years, the cost of bank equity and debt has often surged to levels at which investors balk. No one should be surprised, then, that they are reluctant to recapitalize – or, indeed, lend – to eurozone banks...Higher levels of capital are required for two main reasons. First, economic growth looks set to be much weaker than expected, meaning that capital buffers will need to be built. The European Banking Authority’s stress-test scenario from June looks more like the baseline scenario today. If traditional asset-quality considerations were the only problem buffeting eurozone banks, recapitalization would restore investor confidence, debt markets would reopen, and banks would find raising capital much cheaper than it is now. That isn’t happening, because the problem is growth.

Second, with the demise of sovereign-debt equality, eurozone banks will require higher capital-adequacy ratios to compensate for higher risk. Banks in emerging markets tend to carry higher capital buffers for a similar reason. Just as business and credit cycles there tend to be more frequent and extreme, the real possibility of de facto currency crises in the eurozone, owing to higher sovereign borrowing costs and slow adjustment to shocks under fixed exchange rates, renders massive balance sheets unsupportable and thus obsolete. Higher capital ratios are required today and, absent a credible sovereign safety net, in the future...For example, French banks’ risk-weighted assets are €2.2 trillion, against a capital base of €167 billion – just above the 7.5% ratio established by the international Basel 2 rules. But, once risk weights are removed, assets balloon to €8.1 trillion (roughly 400% of GDP), and the equity-to-asset ratio plummets to 2%. Wholesale debt funds only 10% of these assets, but amounts to €841 billion, or 41% of French GDP. In the event of a loss of market confidence, state guarantees for that much funding would further strain market perceptions of French creditworthiness, generating more pressure on French banks to shrink their balance sheets rapidly. And France is one of the stronger countries in the eurozone!

The latest agreement between European Union member states forces banks to raise core “Tier 1” capital levels to 9%, and will apparently require €108 billion of additional capital. But this figure is well below market expectations, as it is based on the Basel 2 rules, which have proven deficient in terms of risk weights and capital “quality” during the crisis...With the sovereign ground quaking, reinforcing a 100-story skyscraper of leverage with an additional floor or two of concrete will not bring back wary tenants. Unless confidence in sovereign debt within the eurozone can be restored, Europe’s banking skyscrapers will need to be cut in half. What is needed is a controlled deleveraging that recognizes that banks’ balance sheets have become too large to support, and that business models dependent on massive leverage are obsolete. Restoring confidence in eurozone sovereign debt requires not only bank recapitalization, but also a credible, publicly-funded financial safety net that is sufficient to protect the bloc’s larger states. Without that, no amount of capital will restore investors’ faith in eurozone banks. Attempting to leverage with private money the new sovereign-debt bank known as the European Financial Stability Facility will fail for several reasons, but the simplest is that frightened private investors have already fled from European banks. After a massive private-sector boom-and-bust cycle, banks and households are deleveraging, and corporations are hoarding cash. These are the players being asked to fund the EFSF....Once a leveraged EFSF fails, it should be clear that the eurozone will not last in its current form. The cause is excessive public and private indebtedness, coupled with the absence of an effective bailout mechanism; the effect is collapsing confidence in banks and sovereign debt. The solution is either a broad and deep debt restructuring that imposes losses on the private sector, or an ever more expensive bailout by taxpayers. The latter would be credible only if carried out by the ECB, at the expense of its mandate. Until this choice is made, no amount of additional capital will assuage the private sectors’ fears.

[Po_d Mainiac]

7. Welcome back

:donut:

[Demeter]

13. Talked with my Sis Last Night

Wires are down all over--the trees were still full of green leaves and pulled everything down, again. It will take a week, at least, to get back to normal life.

This happened around 1980, on Mother's Day. Freak snowfall and spring leaves. If the utilities maintained pruning programs...

What inevitably happens is enough storms to do the pruning, and then several years of no problem, until the trees recover....

[Po_d Mainiac]

30. Trees ain't designed to be stand alone objects

When they are, they grow wide crowns with longer/heavier limbs (and more snow holding leaves) Pruning exasperates the problem by causing limbs higher up the stem to grow longer. Lateral competition (denser and smaller basil area) wood mitigate the problem

In a wooded setting, trees grow up to the available sunlight, not out. Thus cutting down on leaf production and allowing the growth to withstand winds and heavy snow.

[Demeter]

34. Interesting! I shall think about this

I have a self-appointed "landscaping expert" that needs to be shown the error of her ways....I only do this thread for the condo...

[Po_d Mainiac]

39. Look at it this way

A single corn stalk will collapse under its own weight. But a stand of corn will survive through a season of storms.

Any plant that does well in full sunlight, will try to capture as much of that energy in the most efficient manner possible. In the case of shade trees, they sprout limbs.

As for your lawnscaper, she has an impossible task. You want shade, but open spaces at the same time. You can't have both. Every time Mother Nature gets PMS, and delivers a nasty storm, anything that tries to fend her off alone, will show the scars.

[Demeter]

40. "My" Landscaper

Is a vicious power-hungry snake with delusions of absolute monarchy and too little knowledge about anything to do more than make a big mess. The landscaping is merely incidental, the entre into her designs for absolute power.

It ain't about the trees, it's about the forest, or rather, the community.

[Hotler]

47. Heaven forbid the power companies be proactive.....

That shit cost money. Takes away from corporate profits. We can't have that. I have XCEL and they suck.

[Demeter]

8. 10 Reasons to Hate Bank of America By Nomi Prins

http://www.nationofchange.org/10-reasons-hate-bank-america-1320153713

...a strong case can be made that Bank of America deserves the title of the nation's most despised bank...Here are ten reasons to take your money out of Bank of America - and park it at a credit union or community bank near you. (And yes, that may be near impossible if you have a mortgage with them, as refinancing away from any big bank nowadays is a nightmare.)

1. B of A rejects the right of customers to protest. When two Occupy Santa Cruz protesters in California marched into a local Bank of America to close their accounts, the response was, "You cannot be a protester and a customer at the same time," followed by a threat to call the police if the women didn't leave. (The attending officer later reiterated the bank manager's message.) Meanwhile, the fact that Bank of America charges a fee for closing an account prompted Rep. Brad Miller (D-North Carolina), who resides in Bank of America's headquarters state, to introduce a bill to protect customers from such fees.

2. To recoup ongoing losses from its stupendously dumb acquisitions of Countrywide Financial and Merrill Lynch, B of A pillages its customers. Thus, despite massive public outrage, the $5 debit usage fee for customers with less than a $5,000 balance and no mortgage with the bank will begin in 2012. B of A was the first large bank to confirm it would charge this fee, which is the highest in current discourse among the banks...On October 18, Consumers Union wrote a letter to B of A chief Brian Moynihan asking him to reconsider this fee, which impacts poorer clients disproportionately. The letter summed it up nicely: "Consumers should not be required to pay a costly fee that appears to be arbitrary and designed to generate income to make up for Bank of America's bad business decisions rather than covering the costs of providing debit card services." Banks collect 24 cents from retailers for each customer swipe, much more than the median 8 cents it costs a bank to process the purchase. Senator Dick Durbin's (D-Illinois) response was to urge customers: "Vote with your feet. Get the heck out of that bank."

3. B of A's other fees are just as bad. According to its last annual report, the bank has 29.3 million active online subscribers who paid over $300 billion worth of bills in 2010. In May, B of A raised its checking account fees, which included e-banking, to $12, in line with JP Morgan Chase's decision to do the same, up from $8.95 per month. In June, it started a $35 overdraft fee, even on overdrafts of one cent. Next year, it will incorporate basic checking with a new "essentials'' account structure that makes monthly fees unavoidable, that will not include free bill pay, and that has a mandatory $6 minimum fee....Last Monday, Bank of America was charged (along with JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo) with colluding with the two major credit card companies, Visa and MasterCard, to keep ATM fees high; in other words, they were charged with "price-fixing," in direct opposition to antitrust laws. This is the third of three such suits filed recently, each seeking class action status.

4. Bank of America takes gross advantage of the military.

It is the official bank of the US military and has branches by or on many bases, which provides the firm with another locus of extortion. B of A can entice military personnel to take out loans at usurious rates. Personal loans made to soldiers for a few thousand dollars can actually keep them indebted for the rest of their lives...Last May, Bank of America paid $22 million to settle charges of improperly foreclosing on active-duty troops. The firm spun these foreclosures as being Countrywide's fault for having started them before becoming part of B of A.

AND THAT'S JUST THE PERSONAL STUFF--THE REST IS GLOBAL...SEE LINK

[xchrom]

9. good morning all...

:donut:

[xchrom]

10. asia: Competition deepens in the South China Sea

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/MK03Ae01.html

HANOI - In the run-up to this year's East Asia Summit (EAS), the Philippines and Vietnam have sent a preemptive joint message: they are not willing to yield to rising Chinese pressure on unresolved South China Sea territorial issues.

The new loose alliance between the two Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) members aims to enhance their strategic cooperation and has effectively invited other regional powers to help counterbalance China's claims in the brewing multilateral dispute.

The EAS will take place in mid-November in Bali, Indonesia, and for the first time will also include the United States and Russia. South China Sea tensions are expected to feature prominently at


the multilateral meeting, which will see several world leaders, including United States President Barack Obama, in attendance.

In recent months, the Philippines and Vietnam have taken a similar two-way diplomatic approach by strengthening relations with China's traditional regional competitors, including Japan and India, while at the same time maintaining dialogue and growing commercial ties with Beijing.

At the same time, the ASEAN neighbors have strengthened their bilateral security ties in an apparent bid to counterbalance China's rising naval power. On October 27, Philippine President Benigno Aquino signed several maritime pacts with his Vietnamese counterpart Truong Tan Sang, including naval agreements to share information, respond to natural disasters, prevent smuggling and piracy, and protect marine resources in the South China Sea.

[xchrom]

11. China's home price protests fail to budge discount developers

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/MK03Cb01.html

HONG KONG - Protests by Chinese homeowners objecting to price cuts on new purchases for similar properties appear unlikely to halt more reductions, as developers struggle to maintain sales and cash flows.

The government, concerned that the surging property market in recent years could lead to unrest from folk priced out of the market, has brought in measures to tame prices. They include construction of 10 million low-cost housing units this year, limit to purchases of second homes, and curbs on lending.

The measures are slowing sales and encouraging developers to cut prices to maintain cash flows. Real estate prices in the


mainland's biggest cities such as Guangzhou may fall 10-15% this quarter, Reuters reported, citing a Citi report of November 1.

Angry homeowners in Shanghai, Beijing, Nanjing and Hangzhou in the east of the country, and Shenzhen next to Hong Kong, have besieged developers' sales offices where discounts of as much as 30% were being displayed to trigger sales.

Last Wednesday, more than 200 homeowners gathered at the sales offices of Coastal Palace, one of China Overseas Property (Group) Co's developments in Pudong, Shanghai, seeking refunds or cancelation of their purchase contracts, a day after the developer cut home prices to about 16,000 yuan (US$2,500) per square meter from about 22,000 yuan per square meter.

[xchrom]

25. Sony Forecasts $1.2B Loss on Yen, TV Woes

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/sony-forecasts-full-year-loss-on-yen-waning-sales-of-tvs-cameras-in-u-s-.html

Sony Corp. (6758), Japan’s largest consumer- electronics exporter, forecast its fourth consecutive annual loss and slashed television sales targets after the yen reached a postwar high and floods in Thailand cut production.

The company predicted a 90 billion-yen ($1.2 billion) annual loss, compared with its earlier forecast for a 60 billion-yen full-year profit. Sony reported an unexpected loss of 27 billion yen for the quarter ended Sept. 30, and it cut annual sales targets for TVs, personal computers, compact cameras and Blu-ray DVD players.

The projected loss comes as Chairman Howard Stringer tries to revive sales amid competition from Samsung Electronics Co. and Apple Inc. (AAPL) The company lowered its TV sales target to 20 million units from 22 million units and said Thailand’s worst floods in almost 70 years will delay the introduction of NEX and Alpha cameras, hurting annual profit by 25 billion yen.

“TV prices have continued to fall and it’s natural that Sony is losing money,” said Mitsushige Akino, who oversees about $600 million in Tokyo at Ichiyoshi Investment Management Co. “Sony is struggling to end the losses at its TV unit. That shows the company can no longer produce innovative products like it used to.”

[xchrom]

28. Japan Faces $510 Billion Losses From Yen Sales, JPMorgan Chase & Co. Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/japan-faces-510-billion-losses-from-yen-sales-jpmorgan-says.html

Japan’s government faces almost 40 trillion yen ($512 billion) in losses from intervening in the foreign-exchange markets to stem the yen’s advance, according to estimates by JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Valuation losses on Japan’s foreign-exchange reserves minus yen liabilities totaled 35.3 trillion yen at the end of 2010, according to Finance Ministry data. The losses may swell further as the yen is projected to climb to 72 versus the dollar by September 2012, said Tohru Sasaki, head of Japan rates and foreign-exchange research at JPMorgan Chase in Tokyo.

“It’s difficult to change the trend of the currency market” with intervention, said Sasaki, who used to work in the foreign-exchange division of the Bank of Japan, at a forum in Tokyo yesterday. “Even if the action can stem the currency’s gains temporarily, the yen will eventually appreciate.”

Japan on Oct. 31 intervened in foreign-exchange markets to weaken the yen for the third time this year after the currency gained to a postwar record. Finance Minister Jun Azumi said he will continue to intervene until he’s “satisfied.”

[xchrom]

41. Land in disaster area basically nontaxable

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20111102a1.html

Land prices in areas devastated by the March 11 disasters have plummeted in terms of inheritance and donation tax calculations, and are effectively worthless in the immediate area of the Fukushima nuclear disaster, the government said Tuesday in releasing new price adjustment rates.

The rate stands at 0.2 for locations in Miyagi Prefecture hit by the tsunami, indicating an 80 percent fall in land prices, the National Tax Agency said.

For the vicinity of the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant, the agency said it assigned a rate of zero because it is difficult to make a determination. This means land in the area has no value in the absence of transactions.

Although the agency assigned the negative adjustment rates to reduce the burden on taxpayers, the rates are expected to affect future land transactions.

[Demeter]

44. You Don't Say

Maybe the governments had better rethink the granting of permits and licenses to nuclear plants....regardless of the bribes involved.

[xchrom]

45. you. are. cheeky!

:rofl: :applause:

[Demeter]

50. I am pissed off

and I think it's permanent.

[xchrom]

52. i do not blame you -- im pretty pissed my self. nt

[Tansy_Gold]

73. I thik pretty much everyone here is pissed

either pissed off, or feeling pissed on.



TG

[Demeter]

74. Or seeking the nirvana

of getting pissed....once the day is done. Unfortunately, it's paper route night, so I'm not going to the bottle for succor...

[Ghost Dog]

78. The nirvana of a clear head,

steady hand and heart,

and steely determination

are the way to face the formidable future

at present, I feel.

[Mnemosyne]

14. Good to see you back, PBD! Hope all is well. n/t

[Demeter]

15. Supercommittee of the One Percent Won’t Even Think of Taxing Wall Street By Dean Baker

http://www.nationofchange.org/supercommittee-one-percent-won-t-even-think-taxing-wall-street-1320154351

If anyone still questioned who owns Washington, the congressional supercommittee charged with reducing projected deficits by $1.2 trillion seems determined to end any doubts. According to press accounts, both the Republicans and Democrats on the committee support a plan to reduce average Social Security benefits by 3 percent. While whacking our parents and grandparents with a big cut in Social Security benefits apparently draws bipartisan support, the supercommittee will not even score a plan to tax Wall Street financial speculation. No committee member from either party is prepared to make a simple request to the Joint Tax Committee of Congress that would allow a speculation tax to be one of the items considered in the mix.

It’s hard to know which part of this picture is worse. The plan to cut Social Security benefits at a time when seniors are more dependent than ever on them is incredibly pernicious. The people who would see their benefits cuts under this proposal paid for their benefits contributing to Social Security over their entire working career. Most retirees have little other than Social Security to support them in their retirement. In large part, this is due to the economic mismanagement of the supercommittee types. If they or their friends, like former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan, actually had been doing their jobs, we would not have had the huge housing bubble that wrecked the economy. The collapse of this bubble caused most of the wealth that retirees and near-retirees had accumulated in their home to disappear, leaving them with nothing other than Social Security to sustain them in retirement. Now, they want to cut Social Security as well. This particular cut is especially pernicious since it will hit the oldest and poorest beneficiaries hardest. A person who is in their 90s and has been getting benefits for 30 years would see a reduction in benefits of close to 9 percent under the new cost-of-living adjustment formula apparently supported by members of the committee. The benefit cut is being justified by claiming that the current cost-of-living adjustment exceeds the true rate of inflation. In fact, the Bureau of Labor Statistics index that measures the cost of living of the elderly indicates that the current adjustment understates the rate of inflation experienced by retirees. There should be no doubt, this is a proposal for cutting Social Security benefits; it has nothing to do with making the cost-of-living adjustments accurate.

While the supercommittee has plenty of time to think of ways to make life more miserable for seniors, it won’t even countenance the idea of taxing Wall Street speculation. In spite of the repeated pledges that everything is on the table, taxing Wall Street speculation is absolutely off the table. In order for a tax bill to be considered by Congress, it must be scored by the Joint Tax Committee (JTC). While many members, including some very senior members from both houses, have requested a score from the JTC of a bill taxing financial speculation, the supercommittee has the JTC completely tied up meeting its requests. By refusing to include a financial speculation tax in its scoring request, the supercommittee is preventing this idea from even being included in the discussion.

Given the role of Wall Street in both creating the conditions for the crash and prospering at the expense of the other 99 percent, it might seem reasonable to include a tax on speculation in the mix of items to consider. This is not a radical proposal. The European Commission is currently on the edge of approving a financial speculation tax. Its leading proponents are the conservative leaders of Germany and France...It is easy to see that this could be a very substantial source of revenue. The United Kingdom already has a FST. It raises the equivalent of 0.2 to 0.3 percent of GDP ($30-$40 billion a year in the United States), by just taxing stock. If options, futures, credit default swaps and other derivative instruments were also taxed, it is easy to believe that we could raise three to four times as much money in the United States. But the supercommittee doesn’t want to think about a proposal that would impose serious costs on Wall Street. It is more interested in taking away Social Security and Medicare benefits from the old and disabled. This contempt for the 99 percent coupled with protection for the 1 percent is the reason Congress has an approval rating of 9 percent. When both parties in Congress work against the interest of the overwhelming majority in order to protect a tiny elite, it is not surprising that most of the country would return the contempt.

[Hotler]

51. FUCKERS! n/t

[westerebus]

16. My coffee tastes much better with SMW.

Thank you.

And thank you to the SMW crew.

[Demeter]

18. Romney Family Investment Group Partnered with Alleged Perpetrators of $8 Billion Ponzi Scheme

http://www.nationofchange.org/romney-family-investment-group-partnered-alleged-perpetrators-8-billion-ponzi-scheme-1320162402

OH DEAR, WHO WILL BE THE INEVITABLE CANDIDATE NOW? OR WILL THIS TRANSGRESSION GET A FREE PASS?

Mitt Romney, his son Tagg, and Romney’s chief fundraiser, Spencer Zwick, have extensive financial and political ties to three men who allegedly participated in an $8.5 billion Ponzi scheme. A few months after the Ponzi scheme collapsed, a firm financed by Mitt Romney and run by his son and chief fundraiser partnered with the three men and created a new “wealth management business” as a subsidiary. In an exclusive interview with ThinkProgress, Tagg Romney confirmed their business relationship, but falsely claimed that the men were cleared of any wrongdoing associated with the Ponzi scheme. Tagg Romney told ThinkProgress that his three partners collected about $15,000 from their involvement in the Ponzi scheme. Court documents obtained by ThinkProgress show that the legal proceedings are ongoing and the men made over $1.6 million selling fraudulent CDs to investors.

The Ponzi Scheme

In 2009, prosecutors announced charges against the Stanford Financial Group, which managed a portfolio of $8.5 billion, for running a “massive, ongoing fraud” against its investors. The Ponzi scheme bust was one of the largest in recent history, second only to Bernie Madoff, who perpetrated a fraud estimated to be around $17 billion. The Stanford Ponzi scheme wiped out the savings of thousands, including many American retirees across the country. In Texas, 1290 people lost their retirement savings because of the Stanford Ponzi scheme; in Louisiana, several hundred reportedly suffered the same fate.

The Romney Business Connection

Launched in 2008 by Romney’s son Tagg and a few others, including Mitt Romney’s chief fundraiser Spencer Zwick, Solamere Capital is a “fund of funds,” meaning that it primarily invests in other investment companies, like private equity groups. Mitt Romney himself made a $10 million initial seed investment in Solamere Capital and his personal financial disclosure forms reveal that he has received between $100,000 and $1 million in returns from his stake in Solamere. Romney has come under fire for refusing to release his tax returns, which would likely reveal additional details about his financial relationship with Solamere Capital...After news of the Ponzi scheme precipitated the collapse of Stanford in 2009, Tagg partnered with several of Stanford’s North Carolina executives to start a firm called Solamere Advisors. At least three prominent brokers who had worked for Stanford — Tim Bambauer, Deems May, and Brandon Phillips — joined Tagg to help run Solamere Advisors, a wealth management business located in Charlotte, North Carolina. “We are excited to be associated with such a highly capable group of financial advisors with a proven track record of meeting the needs of their clients throughout the Southeast,” said Tagg in a press release announcing Solamere Advisors, which borrows its the name from its parent company, Solamere Capital.

The Romney Campaign Connection

The Romney campaign and the Romney family investment company are deeply entwined. A recent Boston Globe investigation found that top donors to the Romney campaign have invested into Tagg’s firm, and that Romney’s star campaign fundraiser, Spencer Zwick, doubles as a managing partner for Solamere Capital. The Romney campaign has paid Zwick’s firm, SJZ LLC, over $2 million in fees this year alone. Mitt Romney’s brother Scott Romney is listed as a senior advisor to Solamere Capital.

IT GETS WORSE...SEE LINK

[Roland99]

19. Tagg??? They related to the Alaskan Twit?

[Demeter]

32. I was wondering the same thing

Maybe it's a sign of Tea Party Syndrome....Mitt, Tagg, Trig...

Capital Steps had a rip-roaring routine involving the Palin kids' names....if I weren't so tired, I'd look for it. (Board meeting last night)

[DemReadingDU]

21. Paul Krugman: Eurodämmerung

11/1/11 Eurodämmerung

Things are falling apart in Europe; the center is not holding. Papandreou is going to hold a referendum; the vote will be no. Italian 10-years at 6.29 at pixel time; that’s a level at which the cost of rolling over the existing debt will force a default, even though Italy has a primary surplus. And with everyone simultaneously pushing for fiscal austerity, a recession seems almost certain, aggravating all of the continent’s problems.

I’ve been charting this trainwreck for a couple of years, and am feeling too weary to trace through it again right now. Let’s just say that the euro was an inherently flawed idea that can work only given a strong European economy and a significant degree of inflation, plus open-ended credit to sovereigns facing speculative attack. Yet European elites embraced the notion of economics as morality play, imposing across-the-board austerity, tightening money despite low underlying inflation, and have been too concerned with punishing sinners to notice that everything was going to blow apart without an effective lender of last resort.

The question I’m trying to answer right now is how the final act will be played. At this point I’d guess soaring rates on Italian debt leading to a gigantic bank run, both because of solvency fears about Italian banks given a default and because of fear that Italy will end up leaving the euro. This then leads to emergency bank closing, and once that happens, a decision to drop the euro and install the new lira. Next stop, France.

It all sounds apocalyptic and unreal. But how is this situation supposed to resolve itself? The only route I see to avoid something like this involves the ECB totally changing its spots, fast.

Aside from that, Mr. Draghi, are you enjoying your new job?
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/01/eurodammerung/

P.S.
Mario Draghi (Italian pronunciation: <ˈmaːrjo ˈdraːɡi>; born 3 September 1947) is an Italian banker and economist who has been governor of the Bank of Italy since 16 January 2006. He succeeded Jean-Claude Trichet as President of the European Central Bank on November 1, 2011.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mario_Draghi

[Demeter]

37. I know how Krugman feels

What is surprising is that it took him this long to break.

The unreality has been relentless for decades.

[xchrom]

22. Cohan: Others Pay Price for Corzine’s Revenge

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-01/others-pay-price-for-corzine-s-risky-revenge-william-d-cohan.html

In the end, Jon Corzine was little more than an unsupervised rogue trader.

His disproportionately reckless $6.3 billion bet on the credit quality of a few European nations bankrupted MF Global Holdings Ltd. (MF) over the course of three dramatic days after the short-term credit markets quickly lost confidence in him and his firm. His gamble will cost MF’s shareholders and creditors billions of dollars and, virtually overnight, put the careers of MF’s almost 3,000 employees in jeopardy.

MF Global now has the distinction of being one of the largest bankruptcies in American corporate history, with almost $40 billion in liabilities. There is also the matter of the hundreds of millions of dollars of customers’ money that regulators have reported to be missing from the firm’s coffers.

In any case, it’s incredible how little Corzine and his associates learned from the collapses of Bear Stearns Cos., Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and American International Group Inc. three years ago. And it now seems very hard to believe that just a few months ago Corzine was considered the front-runner to be the next U.S. Treasury secretary.

[Hotler]

54. I repeat myself. FUCKERS! n/t

[Demeter]

59. Is that your new slogan/motto, Hotler?

Is short and succinct, but lacks a certain...direction? Subtlety? Content?

As a transitional slogan, it's all right until the ad men come up with something new and improved...

[Hotler]

68. Heee. Your wit is as sharp as a razor. Never ever lose it.

My new slogan. My new motto. Hell I don't know. The insanity has my head spinning to fast to grasp at anything anymore. Is it to early for beer?

[Demeter]

70. No

And if I thought beer would help my headache, I'd be at it. I'm trying the aspirin first, though.

If it's the B vitamins in beer you crave (mood improvemnt), you could take a pill, instead, and still be functional.

[xchrom]

23. europe: European Stocks Fluctuate Before Fed Meeting; Lloyds, Logica Shares Tumble

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/european-stocks-snap-three-day-drop-before-fed-meets-u-s-futures-advance.html

European stocks fluctuated after the biggest three-day drop in almost two months as the Federal Reserve prepared to release its latest policy statement. Asian shares fell while U.S. index futures gained.

Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY) slid 4.7 percent as Chief Executive Officer Antonio Horta-Osorio took leave of absence from his duties following medical advice. Logica Plc (LOG) sank 8.6 percent as the computer services provider had sales that missed estimates. Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) rose 6.5 percent after forecasting a 22 percent increase in gold output next year.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced less than 0.1 percent to 235.15 at 12:43 p.m. in London, having earlier climbed 1.2 percent and declined 0.7 percent. The gauge retreated 5.8 percent over the previous three days as Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou called a referendum on the nation’s latest bailout package, spurring concern that a rejection of the measures may push the country into default.

“The situation remains better than three weeks ago, despite the uncertainty caused by Papandreou moving on his own to issue the referendum,” said Witold Bahrke, a Copenhagen- based senior strategist at PFA Pension A/S, which manages $45 billion. “The ring-fencing of Greece is ongoing.”

[xchrom]

24. EU Leaders Will Tell Papandreou No Alternative to Cuts

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/eu-leaders-hold-pre-group-of-20-crisis-talks-to-push-greece-on-bailout-aid.html

European leaders racing to prevent their week-old debt crisis strategy from unravelling convene emergency talks today to tell Greece there is no alternative to the budget cuts imposed in the bailout plan.

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, his hold on power weakening, was summoned to Cannes on the eve of a Group of 20 summit where he will hear from French President Nicolas Sarkozy that the “only way to resolve Greek debt problems” is through a deal hammered out last week in a six-day crisis-management marathon.

Papandreou triggered the latest upheaval in the two-year- long crisis by abruptly announcing on Oct. 31 a parliamentary confidence vote and his desire to hold a referendum on the rescue pact. Global stocks, the euro and bonds of debt-strapped countries tumbled yesterday as concern of a disorderly Greek default mounted.

“Given the state of markets and world affairs in general, it is clear that the leaders will work hard at sending a positive message of cooperation and solidarity” from the G-20, said Erik Nielsen, global chief economist at UniCredit Bank AG in London. “But, frankly, it is difficult to be too optimistic.”

[Demeter]

46. We'll Always Have Iceland!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpoyshqB8-o

[xchrom]

58. ...

:spray:

[Tansy_Gold]

85. That movie is an absolute gold mine of quotes.

Just an excuse to kick for the west coast afternoon crowd.



TG

[Ghost Dog]

80. And Argentina:

Argentine Economy To Expand 9 Per Cent This Year

BUENOS AIRES, Nov 2 (BERNAMA-NNN- MERCOPRESS) -- Argentina's central bank estimates that the country's economy will expand 9% this year above the central government forecast of 8.3%, according to the latest quarterly report.

The Argentine economy has been growing at 'Chinese rates' stimulated by a strong domestic demand, vigorous grain and oilseeds exports and a solid industrial base, particularly automobiles sales to its main trade partner Brazil.

"Domestic demand continues to sustain the increase of local economic activity" said the inflation report for the third quarter of the year. "Private consumption remains as the main engine for economic advance" South America's second largest economy expanded 9.2% last year and the administration of President Cristina Fernandez, re-elected by a landslide Oct 23 elections, has estimated growth for this year at 8.3% and 5.1% next year.

The central bank said that it expects economic growth next year to continue expanding but at more moderate rates, given expectations of "a weaker increase of international economic activity".

/... http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsworld.php?id=624205


(Sinead O'Connor singing that song: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2shR99NnwCA )

[xchrom]

33. Increased risk of global recession:Dutch Central Bank

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/increased-risk-of-global-recessiondutch-central-bank/articleshow/10582108.cms

AMSTERDAM: The risks of a global recession have increased as Europe's debt crisis and lower economic growth hurt investor and consumer confidence, the Dutch central bank said on Wednesday.

"The risk of a double dip -- a new, global recession, coming quickly after the slump in 2008 -- has now clearly increased," the Dutch central bank (DNB) said in its semi-annual financial stability report.

"Due to moderate growth prospects there is a real risk that markets lose confidence in more countries' debt sustainability. This problem plays more widely than just Europe," the central bank said.

The outlook for financial stability in the Netherlands, the euro zone's fifth largest economy, was "worrisome" due to the debt crisis and disappointing economic growth in developed economies, DNB said.

[Ghost Dog]

48. Eurozone manufacturing woes deepen as Germany contracts

Broken down by country, in Germany, the economic engine of the euro zone economy, manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in just over two years.

Spanish factory activity shrank for a sixth straight month, while conditions in Italy, increasingly the focal point of worry in the still-raging euro zone debt crisis, deteriorated much more sharply than expected to a 28-month low.

The Italy manufacturing PMI fell 5 points to 43.3, the biggest one-month fall since the survey began in 1997, suggesting an economy deep in recession.

French manufacturing was also on the back foot in October, with new orders drying up and a fall in output.

/... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8864867/Eurozone-manufacturing-woes-deepen-as-Germany-contracts.html


Euro zone factory data suggest recession

(Reuters) - The downturn in euro zone manufacturing in October was even deeper than previously thought, according to "grim" business surveys on Wednesday that showed the currency union's debt crisis is dragging its economy back into recession.

The final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for October, which gauges changes in activity levels across thousands of euro zone manufacturers, fell to 47. 1, revised down from a preliminary reading of 47.3 and down from 48.5 in September.

This marks the third consecutive month the manufacturing PMI has been the 50 level that divides contraction from growth. Output and new orders indexes plunged to levels not seen since mid-2009.

The survey suggests the crisis is putting a chokehold on euro area business and, along with news that German unemployment unexpectedly rose for the first time in nearly two years to 7 percent, it adds pressure on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates.

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/11/02/uk-euro-factories-idUKLNE7A100G20111102

[mahatmakanejeeves]

26. Welcome back.

Now I can post in your thread again.

I love Toles's cartoon from yesterday morning. It's outstanding, even for someone who is always good.

[Demeter]

27. Goldman Sachs and Occupy Wall Street’s Bank: The Real Story By Greg Palast

http://www.nationofchange.org/goldman-sachs-and-occupy-wall-street-s-bank-real-story-1319807552

Mega-bank Goldman Sachs (assets $933bn), has declared war on one of the smallest banks in New York (assets $30m), the customer-owned community bank that happens to also be the banker for Friends of Liberty Plaza, Inc, also known as Occupy Wall Street. And you thought Goldman didn't care. The trouble began three weeks ago when the occupiers suddenly found their donation buckets filling with thousands of dollars, way more than needed for their pizza dinners. Suddenly, the anti-bank protesters needed a bank. Citibank and Chase certainly wouldn't fit. So OWS opened an account at the not-for-profit Lower East Side Peoples Federal Credit Union. Peoples has a unique federal charter – designated to open accounts for low-income folk from all over New York, available to those families earning less than $38,000 per year. (Disclosure: the CEO of the Peoples bank is my dearly beloved ex. But that's another story.)...Goldman Sachs had also joined up with the Peoples bank. Goldman partners reportedly earn a bit more than $38k per annum, yet Goldman's association so far was limited to giving the credit union $5,000 toward the little bank's 25th anniversary celebration dinner. Goldman's largesse was acknowledged on the dinner invites – along with the night's honoree: Occupy Wall Street...When a Goldman exec saw its gilded name next to Occupy Wall Street, the financial giant expressed much displeasure. In fact, my sources say, Goldman threatened legal action unless the credit union gave up the $5,000 and reprinted the invite sans the Sachs moniker. Goldman Sachs did not respond to our requests for comment on the affair.

So far, it's a cute story: tiny bank uses Goldman's money to fete some tent-dwellers who are denouncing Sachs as the Giant Vampire Squid.

But there's a lot more at stake in this battle than a $5,000 donation gone wrong. Underneath, it's a battle royal for control of tens of billions of dollars in government mandated "community reinvestment" funds. In 2008, the US Treasury handed Goldman Sachs a check for $10bn from the Troubled Asset Recovery Program (Tarp), the bailout funds given to desperate commercial banks. A few eyebrows were raised: Goldman was not desperate, and it certainly was not a commercial bank. Yet – abracadabra! – Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson transformed investment bank Goldman into a commercial bank overnight. (Paulson's prior post was chairman of Goldman Sachs. Just saying.) But there was a catch: Goldman would have to return a chunk of the public's billions in the form of loans for low-income customers and members of its "community", as required by the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) of 1977. Problem: Goldman has, it seems, no low-income customers, nor a "community". Goldman was directed to find poor people and a community and hand over some cash...So Goldman looked down from its riverfront tower in lower Manhattan and discovered Peoples. Over 80% of Peoples member-owners have low incomes. At least 65% are Latino.

For the big money-center banks, the CRA is good deal. They pay some blood money into community banks and offload their low-income customers. Indeed, bank branches catering to the carriage trade often hustle would-be customers from housing projects out the door with an admonition to take their undesirable business to Lower East Side Peoples....The billions of dollars in CRA funds (Citibank alone committed $115bn over ten years) have given community banks tremendous political authority at the local level. Notably, Congresswoman Nydia Velasquez will be honored alongside Occupy Wall Street at the credit union's 3 November dinner. "We didn't mean to draw a line in the sand with Goldman," Peoples Chairman Del Rio told me, standing inside the bank's vault, the only place in the cramped back office with room to meet. But Goldman did draw the line. And other bankers are stepping back across it, too. Capital One also pulled its name off the dinner invites.

Goldman has so far only passed out its legally-required CRA funds with an eye-dropper: the $5,000 for Peoples (now withdrawn), and a few other dabs here and there. The big cash investments from the Goldman fund are dangling, hoping to lure only those community banks and low-income funds that will dance to Goldman's tune. My sources told me that Goldman's "Urban Investment Group" representative had stated in a phone conversation that Occupy's credit union will never get another dime from any big bank, but, again, Goldman refused to speak with me to confirm or deny this...Peoples' Del Rio dismisses such threats, but I don't. These Community Reinvestment funds ultimately come from public pockets, so why should the titans of Wall Street be allowed to bully community credit unions, which are answerable to their members, not Goldman's partners?

MORE

[Loge23]

36. Amazing story - great work by Palast

I am sure GS has some of the most robust security ever for a commercial building.
If there was ever a appropriate site for the flash point of the revolution, their den is surely that place.
What utter scum.

[Demeter]

42. The most amazing part of the GS story is they still think they can prevail

GS doesn't realize that they have shat in their own nest, spoiled their game by overplaying their hand, and screwed themselves by trying to screw everybody else.

GS doesn't realize that they will go the way of Lehmans, Bear Stern's, Barings, and all the other over-confident, super greedy, power-abusing financials of history. Furthermore, they may have set the stage for a final take down of the piracy trade in FIRE, if OWS and the public can keep the focus on long enough to do the job properly.

The worm has turned.

[Hotler]

57. +1 n/t

[xchrom]

29. Gold futures climb amid Greek debt worries

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-futures-climb-amid-greek-debt-worries-2011-11-02?dist=markets

SYDNEY (MarketWatch) — Gold futures climbed in electronic trading Wednesday, as concerns over whether Greece will undermine European efforts to tackle the region’s debt crisis supported demand for safe-haven assets.

Gold for December delivery /quotes/zigman/661658 GC1Z +1.03% gained $12.30, or 0.7%, to $1,724.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange during Asian trading hours.

The contract had settled at $1,711.80 an ounce earlier in the North American session.

Fresh worries about Europe’s debt situation washed through markets on Wednesday, after a surprise decision by Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou earlier this week to put the nation’s latest bailout plan to a referendum inflamed fears about a Greek sovereign-debt default. Read more about the latest Greek turmoil.

[xchrom]

31. south asia: Sensex ends flat; RIL, R-Com, R-Infra, R-Power gains

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/market-news/sensex-ends-flat-ril-r-com-r-infra-r-power-gains/articleshow/10581377.cms

MUMBAI: The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex gave away intraday gains and ended on a flat note as investors chose to remain on sidelines ahead of FOMC meet. The Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou's cabinet approval for referendum on European Union bailout hurt sentiments.

"Europe has done a complete about turn over the last week or 10 days. From a lot of optimism it has suddenly gone down to a fairly pessimistic panic situation. Things remain pretty uncertain there and increasingly what will become more clear to investors is that the possibility of this whole thing getting resolved in a hurry, in some quick fix manner seems highly unlikely.

I expect investors to be a lot more cautious going forward. We will probably see a lot more negative news coming out over the next few months which will make the market sentiment negative and which will probably take the market downwards.

I would not be surprised if we retest the lower levels that we saw during some parts of 2011 by December or thereabouts. I am not very optimistic about what is going to come out of Europe in over next three to six months," said Rajnish Kumar, Executive Vice President, Fullerton Securities & Wealth Advisors to ET Now.

[xchrom]

53. Pakistan grants India 'most favoured' trade status

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-15553636

Pakistan's cabinet has unanimously approved the award of "most favoured nation" trading status to India.

Pakistan had previously linked trade liberalisation with India to a resolution of the dispute over Kashmir, over which the nations have fought two wars.

Correspondents say the move is a significant step towards boosting the peace process between the neighbours.

India has already extended most favoured nation status to Pakistan.

[Demeter]

64. They must want something pretty badly

Protection from the United States, is my bet.

[Roland99]

38. good grief. 10 min. in and DJIA is up about 150. They'll never freakin' learn

warnings of bank runs in Greece. Rumors of downgrades for France. EU in upheaval. (worthless) ADP report still below numbers needed for equilibrium.

But, hey, let's BUY BUY BUY!

[Demeter]

49. Smoke, Mirrors and PPT

I sincerely doubt that any real money, like Warren Buffett, is out there snapping up bargains.

The poor pension funds might be trying, but have they got anything left to lose?

[Roland99]

75. Pump and Dump

[Demeter]

55. The End of Population Growth By Sana Altaf

http://www.nationofchange.org/end-population-growth-1320069591

According to the United Nations’ Population Division, the world’s human population hit seven billion on October 31. As always happens whenever we approach such a milestone, this one has produced a spike in conferences, seminars, and learned articles, including the usual dire Malthusian predictions. After all, the UN forecasts that world population will rise to 9.3 billion in 2050 and surpass 10 billion by the end of this century. Such forecasts, however, misrepresent underlying demographic dynamics. The future we face is not one of too much population growth, but too little.

Most countries conducted their national population census last year, and the data suggest that fertility rates are plunging in most of them. Birth rates have been low in developed countries for some time, but now they are falling rapidly in the majority of developing countries. Chinese, Russians, and Brazilians are no longer replacing themselves, while Indians are having far fewer children. Indeed, global fertility will fall to the replacement rate in a little more than a decade. Population may keep growing until mid-century, owing to rising longevity, but, reproductively speaking, our species should no longer be expanding...What demographers call the Total Fertility Rate is the average number of live births per woman over her lifetime. In the long run, a population is said to be stable if the TFR is at the replacement rate, which is a little above 2.3 for the world as a whole, and somewhat lower, at 2.1, for developed countries, reflecting their lower infant-mortality rates...The TFR for most developed countries now stands well below replacement levels. The OECD average is at around 1.74, but some countries, including Germany and Japan, produce less than 1.4 children per woman. However, the biggest TFR declines in recent years have been in developing countries. The TFR in China and India was 6.1 and 5.9, respectively, in 1950. It now stands at 1.8 in China, owing to the authorities’ aggressive one-child policy, while rapid urbanization and changing social attitudes have brought down India’s TFR to 2.6.

An additional factor could depress future birth rates in China and India. The Chinese census suggests that there are 118.6 boys being born for every 100 girls. Similarly, India has a gender ratio at birth of around 110 boys for every 100 girls, with large regional variations. Compare this to the natural ratio of 105 boys per 100 girls. The deviation is usually attributed to a cultural preference for boys, which will take an additional toll on both populations, as the future scarcity of women implies that both countries’ effective reproductive capacity is below what is suggested by the unadjusted TFR. Indeed, after adjusting for the gender imbalance, China’s Effective Fertility Rate (EFR) is around 1.5, and India’s is 2.45. In other words, the Chinese are very far from replacing themselves, and the Indians are only slightly above the replacement rate. The EFR stands at around 2.4 for the world as a whole, barely above the replacement rate. Current trends suggest that the human race will no longer be replacing itself by the early 2020’s. Population growth after this will be mostly caused by people living longer, a factor that will diminish in significance from mid-century.

These shifts have important implications for global labor supply. China is aging very rapidly, and its working-age population will begin to shrink within a few years. Relaxing the one-child policy might have some positive impact in the very long run, but China is already past the tipping point, pushed there by the combined effect of gender imbalance and a very skewed age structure. The number of women of child-bearing age (15-49 years) in China will drop 8% between 2010 and 2020, another 10% in the 2020’s and, if not corrected, at an even faster pace thereafter. Thus, China will have to withdraw an increasing proportion of its female workforce and deploy it for reproduction and childcare. Even if China can engineer this, it implies an immediate outflow from the workforce, with the benefits lagging by 25 years...Meanwhile, the labor force has peaked or is close to peaking in most major economies. Germany, Japan, and Russia already have declining workforces. The United States is one of a handful of advanced countries with a growing workforce, owing to its relative openness to immigration. But this may change as the source countries become richer and undergo rapid declines in birth rates. Thus, many developed countries will have to consider how to keep people working productively well into their seventies. India, the only large economy whose workforce will grow in sufficient scale over the next three decades, may partly balance the declines expected in other major economies. But, with birth rates declining there, too, current trends suggest that its population will probably stabilize at 1.55 billion in the early 2050’s, a full decade ahead of – and 170 million people below – the UN’s forecast. Given this, it is likely that world population will peak at nine billion in the 2050’s, a half-century sooner than generally anticipated, followed by a sharp decline. One could argue that this is a good thing, in view of the planet’s limited carrying capacity. But, when demographic dynamics turn, the world will have to confront a different set of problems.

I'M INCLINED TO THE "JUST RIGHT" THEORY...TECHNOLOGY REPLACES A LOT OF LABOR. AND A LOT OF PERSON-HEAVY-LABOR THESE DAYS IS MAKE-WORK, NON-PRODUCTIVE, NOT PROVIDING EVEN SO MUCH VALUE AS CHANGING DIAPERS OR TAKING OUT TRASH DOES...

[xchrom]

56. Russian and Chinese companies 'most likely to bribe'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15544841

Companies from Russia and China are most likely to pay bribes when doing business abroad, a survey suggests.

The two scored worst out of 28 countries in a poll of 3,000 business executives conducted by anti-corruption group Transparency International (TI).

The Netherlands and Switzerland came top, while the UK ranked eighth, just ahead of the US and France.

Bribery was reportedly most common to win public sector works and construction contracts.

[Demeter]

60. That's because the US bribery is much more subtle and more overt

and above all, legal, thanks to the Dancing Supremes.

[xchrom]

61. we have that old stand by -- 'no bid' contracts.

& the usual suspects who always receive them.

[Demeter]

63. That's so 1970, though

There are new flashy ways of public theft that the Big Guys are itching to use.

[Ghost Dog]

81. The US never does anything corrupt and criminal.

And if you say it does, we'll blow your brains out.

[Demeter]

62. Wanna See a Real Ass Kicking (Itself)? Read the Dems’ Disastrous “Super Committee” Proposal

http://www.nationofchange.org/wanna-see-real-ass-kicking-itself-read-dems-disastrous-super-committee-proposal-1319981237

If you've ever questioned whether the so-called "Super Committee" represents a breakdown in the democratic process, yesterday's proposal from the group's Democratic members should put your doubts to rest. The system's seriously broken when unelected super-legislators from both parties keep trying to top each other in proposing inhumane and unpopular programs.

The party of the donkey is about to give itself a real ass-kicking.

Representatives from the "party of the people" want to cut Medicare and Social Security, and they're looking for bragging rights on who'd cut government more in a time of need.

If the regular folks' party is trying to impose this much pain on the elderly, poor, and disabled, what's the rich people's party going to do: sacrifice babies in Times Square on live television?

I CAN'T BEAR TO POST ANY MORE...GO READ IT AT LINK

[xchrom]

71. +1

[mahatmakanejeeves]

65. Syms, Filene's Basement Seek to Liquidate in Bankruptcy

Syms, Filene's Basement Seek to Liquidate in Bankruptcy

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Syms Corp. and its Filene's Basement LLC affiliate filed for bankruptcy in Delaware, the third time Filene's, the century-old clothing chain, has sought protection from creditors.

The company listed assets of $236 million, including $97.7 million in real estate inventories, and liabilities of $94 million, according to a statement filed with the Chapter 11 petition today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Wilmington, Delaware.

Syms, which operates 46 stores under Filene's Basement and its namesake brand in the U.S., said it plans to liquidate the business during the holiday season. The company said it received no "viable bids" from anyone willing to operate the business.

Syms, based in Secaucus, New Jersey, bought Filene's Basement in an auction for $63 million in June 2009. The company has 25 Syms stores and 21 Filene's Basement locations. The company plans to conduct going-out-of-business sales before Black Friday, the beginning of the U.S. holiday shopping season, according to court papers. Black Friday, the day after the Thanksgiving Holiday, falls on Nov. 25 this year.

[Demeter]

69. I never liked Filenes

Can't even remember buying anything there. I know it was a Boston institution, but you remember what Mae West said about marriage?

"Marriage is a great institution, but I'm not ready for an institution."

Read more: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/m/maewest106590.html#ixzz1cYoeIdX1

[Ghost Dog]

83. Hmmm. I was doing some research in this area, eg:

NEW YORK | Thu Oct 13, 2011 7:31pm EDT

(Reuters) - Fast Retailing Co Ltd's (9983.T) Uniqlo is launching its U.S. expansion this week with the opening of a flagship store in Manhattan that will anchor a global push to rely less on its home market of Japan.

In addition to the Fifth Avenue location, opening on Friday, Uniqlo is also opening a store in New York's Herald Square next week, bringing its U.S. total to three locations. The new stores will be the chain's two biggest.

The retailer's goal is to eventually have 200 stores in the United States and U.S. sales of $10 billion by 2020.

Uniqlo, run by Japanese billionaire Tadashi Yanai, is directly challenging rivals such as Spain's Inditex SA (ITX.MC), Sweden's Hennes & Mauritz AB (HMb.ST) and U.S.-based Gap Inc (GPS.N) with stores a stone's throw away from theirs on Manhattan's major shopping strips.

All these chains are trying to tap the growing market for fashionable clothes, such as cashmere sweaters and lightweight down jackets, at lower prices among U.S. consumers who are likely to have a reduced purchasing power for some time.

"Even people who don't have much money have the same desire to wear something nice," Yanai told Reuters on Thursday through an interpreter.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/13/us-fastretailing-idUSTRE79C7IG20111013?symbol=ITX.MC


Rag trade must be among the oldest businesses in the world... Some picking up retail space and selling the right stuff at good prices in this day and age?

[Po_d Mainiac]

88. Uni-GLO....GLO??

Talk about a name meant to fail!

Even people without much money don't want a wardrobe that GLO's


:rofl:

[Ghost Dog]

90. It's a Q - QLO (so sounds like 'clothes' - get it?)

:)

I dunno, doesn't look bad... more here if you're interested: http://www.dailyfinance.com/2011/10/29/can-uniqlos-clever-clothes-refashion-the-u-s-retail-market/

[Po_d Mainiac]

91. Aargg...

:selfinflictedheadslap:

[Demeter]

66. Occupy the Banks: Strategies for Transformation By Gar Alperovitz

http://www.nationofchange.org/occupy-banks-strategies-transformation-1319981929

The “occupations” now building around the country are a necessary and justified response to the outrages of a political-economic system that substitutes posturing for decision-making, looking the other way as the top one percent runs off with almost a fourth of the nation’s income and more wealth than the bottom 90 percent combined. The largely student/youth organized efforts might even be historic—if, that is, they come to terms with the reality that the challenge we face is systemic, not merely political and, that the crisis is also highly unusual in its demands.

For over a century, liberals and radicals have seen the possibility of change in capitalist systems from one of two perspectives: the reform tradition assumes that corporate institutions remain central to the system but believes that regulatory policies can contain, modify, and control corporations and their political allies. The revolutionary tradition assumes that change can come about only if corporate institutions are eliminated or transcended during an acute crisis, usually but not always by violence.

But what happens if a system neither reforms nor collapses in crisis?

Quietly, a different kind of progressive change is emerging, one that involves a transformation in institutional structures and power, a process one could call “evolutionary reconstruction.” At the height of the financial crisis in early 2009, some kind of nationalization of the banks seemed possible. “The public hates bankers right now,” the Brookings Institution’s Douglas Elliot observed. “Truthfully, you would find considerable support for hanging a number of bankers…” It was a moment, Barack Obama told banking CEOs, when his administration was “the only thing between you and the pitchforks.” But the president opted for a soft bailout engineered by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers. Whereas Franklin Roosevelt attacked the “economic royalists” and built and mobilized his political base, Obama entered office with an already organized base and largely ignored it.

When the next financial crisis occurs, and it will, a different political opportunity may be possible. One option has already been put on the table: in 2010, thirty-three senators voted to break up large Wall Street investment banks that were “too big to fail.” Such a policy would not only reduce financial vulnerability; it would alter the structure of institutional power. Still, breaking up banks, even if successful, isn’t the end of the process. The modern history of the financial industry, to say nothing of anti-trust strategies in general, suggests that the big banks would ultimately regroup and reconcentrate and restore their domination of the system. So what can be done when “breaking them up” fails?



MORE AT LINK

[Demeter]

67. GOP to Subpoena White House over Solyndra By Corbin Hiar

http://www.nationofchange.org/gop-subpoena-white-house-over-solyndra-1319897518

IT'S STILL THE SAME OLD STORY, PLAY IT AGAIN, SAM!

The fallout from the government’s failed $535 million bet in solar panel maker Solyndra expanded on Friday, with the Obama administration seeking an independent audit of Energy Department loans even as the Republican-led House Energy committee threatened a subpoena of the president. White House officials said the audit would focus on the health of existing loans in the Energy Department’s multi-billion dollar portfolio of investments in clean tech firms.

Solyndra, the first recipient of Energy Department backing, collapsed in bankruptcy and is now the subject of multiple investigations. The Energy Department and White House backed the half billion dollar investment in Solyndra, government emails show, even as budget and Treasury officials were raising red flags.

“Today we are directing that an independent analysis be conducted of the current state of the Department of Energy loan portfolio, focusing on future loan monitoring and management,” White House chief of staff Bill Daley told the Associated Press. “While we continue to take steps to make sure the United States remains competitive in the 21 st century energy economy, we must also ensure that we are strong stewards of taxpayer dollars.”

The audit will be conducted by former Treasury official Herb Allison, who stepped down in September 2010 after overseeing the Troubled Asset Relief Program. A former investment banker, Allison has served on the boards of financial and educational institutions and contributed to both Republicans and Democrats over the years, according to federal contribution records in the CQ MoneyLine database. He was national finance chairman for John McCain’s 2000 campaign. Previous General Accountability Office reports have questioned the Energy Department’s handling of its loans and loan guarantees, saying the agency sometimes showed favoritism in making awards and didn’t always follow up to ensure projects were on track. “DOE has treated applicants inconsistently,”said one report . “Although our past work has shown that agencies should process applications with the goals of treating applicants fairly and minimizing applicant confusion, DOE’s implementation of the program has favored some applicants and disadvantaged others in a number of ways.”

IN NO WAY ARE THE WHITE HOUSE'S HANDS CLEAN HERE, BUT I HARDLY THINK THE GOP NEEDS ANY MORE FUEL FOR THAT BONFIRE. IF THE IDEA IS STILL TO SINK SOLAR ENERGY, I THINK IT'S TOO LATE FOR THAT, TOO. IT'S JUST GOP BEING GOP.

[Demeter]

72. The Greco-Franco Bank Run Has Skipped the Pond, Landed in NY/Chicago and Nobody Noticed

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/greco-franco-bank-run-has-skipped-pond-landed-nychicago-and-nobody-noticed-exactly-i-pre

Four months ago, I posted two seminal pieces, namely The Anatomy Of A European Bank Run: Look At The Banking Situation BEFORE The Run Occurs!

http://boombustblog.com/BoomBustBlog/The-Anatomy-Of-A-European-Bank-Run-Look-At-The-Banking-Situation-BEFORE-The-Run-Occurs.html

and The Fuel Behind Institutional “Runs on the Bank” Burns Through Europe, Lehman-Style!

http://boombustblog.com/BoomBustBlog/Asset/Liability-Funding-Mismatches-The-Fuel-Behind-Institutional-Runs-on-the-Bank-Comes-To-Europe-Lehman-Style.html

that outlined in explicit detail, the path, methodology and cause and effect
of bank runs that will emanate from Europe. Any who have not read these
two posts, be aware that I consider them a must. For those of you who
feel that my posts are too long, I urge you to take the content embedded
within them more seiously (both paid and free content), for although
verbose, they are proving to be most prescient.

As excerpted:

Traditional views on this “bank run model” largely (or more aptly, only) consider individual savers in the form of depositors on the short side (liquid liabilities). It is a run such as this that caused the banking collapse during the US Great Depression.

The modern central banking system has proven resilient enough to fortify
banks against depositor runs, as was recently exemplified in the recent
depositor runs on UK, Irish, Portuguese and Greek banks – most of which
received relatively little fanfare. Where the risk truly lies in
today’s fiat/fractional reserve banking system is the run on
counterparties. Today’s global fractional reserve bank gets more
financing from institutional counterparties than any other source save
its short term depositors. In cases of the perception of extreme risk,
these counterparties are prone to pull funding or request
overcollateralization for said funding.

This is what precipitated the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman
Brothers, the pulling of liquidity by skittish counterparties, and the
excessive capital/collateralization calls by other counterparties. Keep
in mind that as some counterparties and/or depositors pull liquidity,
covenants are tripped that often demand additional capital/collateral/
liquidity be put up by the remaining counterparties, thus daisy-chaining
into a modern day run on the bank!...this distrust, collateral calling, back stabbing bank run thing will get much worse before it gets better.



SO, HE THINKS THE 1% ARE STILL WILLING TO EAT EACH OTHER...MORE AT LINKS

[Demeter]

76. The Military Spending Fairy By Dean Baker

I COULD HAVE A MATCHED SET---A BREEDING PAIR!

http://www.nationofchange.org/military-spending-fairy-1319643457

Faced with the prospect of cuts to the Defense Department's budget, the defense industry is pushing the story of the military spending fairy on members of Congress. They are telling them that these cuts will lead to the loss of more than 1 million jobs over the next decade. Believers in the military spending fairy say things like "the government can't create jobs," but also think that military spending creates jobs. Under the military spending fairy story, if the government spends $1 billion dollars paying people to do research or to build items related to the civilian economy it is just a drag on the private economy; however if the same spending goes to military related purposes, then it creates jobs. It's not clear exactly how the military fairy blesses projects to make them helpful to the economy rather than harmful. For example, the highways were built in the 50s ostensibly in part for defense purposes. They made it easier to move troops and military equipment around the country in the event of an attack. Government subsidized student loans were also originally dubbed as defense loans since they were ostensibly intended in part to produce more graduates in science and engineering who could help us compete with the Soviet Union in defense related technologies.

Using this same logic, perhaps President Obama could get the military spending fairy to bless some of his stimulus spending so that it will be economically useful. He could again call student loans "defense loans." He could also have the research into clean energy technologies be viewed as providing alternative sources for energy for the military in the event we are cut off from oil imports in a war. (It makes as much sense as the highway story.) Then the military spending fairy can bless the stimulus as creating jobs.

For people who don't believe in the military spending fairy, the story is simple. During a downturn where there are lots of unemployed workers, any government spending will create jobs, regardless of whether or not it is on the military. In fact, military spending is likely to create fewer jobs than spending in most other areas (e.g. education, health care, conservation) because it is more capital intensive.

When the economy is near full employment, military spending is a drag on the economy. It pulls resources away from private sector uses, lowering investment and increasing the trade deficit. This leads to job losses, which are likely to be felt most severely in manufacturing and construction. In short, for those who do not believe in the military spending fairy, military spending will cost jobs in either the short-term of long-term. If the spending doesn't make sense in terms of advancing national security, then it doesn't make sense period: end of story.

[Demeter]

77. AND HERE'S THE LUCKY COUPLE!

[Loge23]

86. A republican dilemna

I would think that repubs would back off their generally military-first stance if they had to connect it with government-supported job creation, which they do (have to) and which they don't (connect) - so that will never happen.
But in their attempt to be relevant in 2011-12, repubs have been up to some pretty odd things for them- like endorsing fairies for example, or pretending that they support an African-American for President.
Wonders never cease in Fairyland.

[Roland99]

79. Chopper Ben's presser: "I'm not happy with the economy"

so glad to hear that, Ben.



:mad:

[Ghost Dog]

84. Full Fed Statement:

...

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

The Committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 per cent and currently anticipates that economic conditions–including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.

The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

/... http://seekingalpha.com/article/304527-the-fed-steers-clear-of-quantitative-easing


Bernanke said:


"While we still expect that economic activity and labour market conditions will improve gradually over time, the pace of progress is likely to be frustratingly slow," he said.

"Moreover, there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, most notably concerns about European fiscal and banking issues (that) have contributed to strains in global financial markets, which have likely had adverse effects on confidence and growth," Bernanke added.

He said the U.S. central bank was "closely" monitoring developments in Europe and left open the possibility that the Fed could expand its holdings of mortgage debt if U.S. economic conditions worsened.

"I do think that purchases of mortgage-backed securities is a viable option. Certainly, something we would consider if the condition were appropriate," Bernanke said.

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/11/02/uk-usa-fed-idUKTRE7A16RV20111102

[Po_d Mainiac]

89. Geez chairsatan, go find a moving bus to park in front of, n/t

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

82. Boo-Yah!

"Suck it, Greece!"

[Hotler]

87. .....

:applause: :spray: