Poll shows Bush, Kerry in statistical dead heat (in MN)

[struggle4progress]

A new poll shows support for Democrat John Kerry and President George W. Bush is virtually even among voters in Minnesota, considered one of about 17 states that could go either way in this fall's presidential election.

The poll conducted for the St. Paul Pioneer Press and Minnesota Public Radio shows 44 percent of Minnesota voters would vote for Kerry, while 41 percent favor Bush. That puts the race within the poll's four-point margin of error, meaning results could differ by four percentage points in either direction.

Two percent of those polled support independent candidate Ralph Nader, while 13 percent were undecided.
<snip>

It showed Minnesota voters mirror the nation. Eleven national polls in the past month showed Kerry and Bush running neck and neck, according to PollingReport.com. Only two trial heats had Kerry leading by more than the margin of error.
<snip>

http://www.centredaily.com/mld/centredaily/news/politics/8804501.htm

[Catt03]

1. If this was today or yesterday

Bush probably received a bump from all the televised speeches and media coverage for Memorial Day. He was on television every hour and received a lot of air time.

[AndyTiedye]

2. Shouldn't Minnesota be Solid Blue?

why is it even in play?

[shockingelk]

7. unfortunately, no.

Minnesota is weird. We elected a pro-wrestling Reform Party candidate to governor. 2000 presidential was

47.91 Gore
45.50 Bush

The Strib did a poll a few months ago that showed Kerry ahead by 12. Norm Coleman (hard right Bush clone) and Mark Dayton (who isn't used to public speaking) are our Senators. MN is weird.

But we have sent our electoral votes up for Dems longer than any other state ...

[crossroads]

3. You're right about the good press this weekend...

but... the way things have started to turn sour, the truth beginning to unravel Bush's lies, and considering the mess he's made, I feel Kerry has to pull ahead soon! BTW, I find it hard to believe that many people are *still* supporting Bush!!! Don't they watch the news? Oh, I forgot they watch faux news!
:shrug:

[Raenelle]

8. 81 KIA in May. But you wouldn't know it from the news.

[GiovanniC]

19. Bush Might Have Gotten Airtime

But no one I know was watching. It's Memorial Day weekend, for crying out loud... everyone was out enjoying it. Even most of the hardcore news buffs I know took a couple days off.

[mwar]

4. 13% undecided is good news

According to Paul Begala, undecided votes never go for the incumbent.


"Two percent of those polled support independent candidate Ralph Nader, while 13 percent were undecided."

[Stuckinthebush]

11. Yes it is, mwar!

A substantial amount of that 13% will vote for Kerry. Bet on it!

[OneBlueSky]

5. if Minnesota is really in play, we're in trouble . . .

I don't know how much to trust these polls when all subjective evidence I see indicates that Bush is in the crapper . . . but if states like Minnesota are really that close, then Kerry had better come up with a better strategy than letting Bush self-destruct . . .

[BlueJazz]

6. I lived in Minnesota when the Democrats were Kings.

I had a long talk with a pollster before I left Minnesota to move to Florida (After Norm Coleman was elected I figured if I was gonna live in a Repuke state I might as well be warm!) anyway...he showed me that a lot of Republicans had moved into Minnesota because of the
fact that the state was very high on the list of "Best Places to Live"

The sad thing is these same Repukes will eventually outnumber the Democrats and turn the state into another shithole like most of the southern states...

10 or 15 years ago the poll numbers would have been:
Kerry..... 76%
Bush...... 24%

[Voltaire99]

9. Shifting demographics

You're right: that's the story in Minnesota. Tremendous growth during the 90s has changed the political complexion dramatically.

But let's not let Democrats off the hook. The disarray of the party is such that it never prepared an heir for Wellstone, and it has been quite a few years since it had a viable candidate for governor.

[Art_from_Ark]

10. Are the statewide demographics really changing that much?

Seems to me there would have to be a heck of an influx of Republicans filing into Minnesota to make such a dramatic change in voting demographics. I myself come from a county in Arkansas that went from largely Democratic to largely Repug due to a large influx of wealthy retirees and outflux of young people, but most of the rest of the state is still largely Democratic.

[kikiek]

12. I think fear is changing many demographics.

Besides fear I agree with the notion that driving people away from voting serves the republicans well. People are too busy running around so they don't want to spend the energy to actually pay attention. Personally I'd rather not wait until we need a civil war to win our democracy back, morons. At least we aren't too far from the Canadian border in case we need to make a break for it.

[kikiek]

14. Don't forget the 3rd party candidates

They have split the Democratic party here with the Independents. I also blame years and years of right wing talk radio. No other side was ever heard.

[AndyTiedye]

20. Prepared? How?

> The disarray of the party is such that it never prepared an heir for
> Wellstone

How could they have done?
I really don't think they expected him to be murdered.
How can there be an "heir"?
People like that don't come around that often.
We may not see the like of Wellstone in DC again for a long time.

[Soopercali]

13. Relax!

This is a GOOD thing. That an incumbent president has such tight numbers six months out from the election is a sign of a very weak candidate.

And let's not miss the obvious: His numbers are trending DOWN, not up.

[bullimiami]

15. the poll shows

that half of minnesota is dumb as dirt.

[yellowcanine]

16. No, it shows that Bush is extremely unpopular and Kerry is not well known

as yet. Bush is at 41% or less in the Gore states and going down. Kerry will pick up as we get closer to the nominating conventions - as long as he continues to put out a positive message. Events will drag Bush down. Kerry doesn't need to focus on the Bush negatives but instead should focus on forging a vision that attracts voters repelled by the Bush failures.

[John_H]

17. I love the way these polls get reported

When Kerry is ahead inside the margin, it's a "statisitical dead heat." When Chimp is ahead inside the margin he's "leading."

Sounds to me like people in MN had better start working harder. 3 points is not enough of a cushion considering chimp still has the "handover," which will be played by the whores as an actual handover, Osama's timely appearance, and maniupulated job numbers.

Like it will in every swing state, the election is going to hinge on turnout in MN.

[alarcojon]

18. I was just going to post

that I was glad to see a poll reported honestly..

That puts the race within the poll's four-point margin of error, meaning results could differ by four percentage points in either direction.

Generally, journalists report the statistical margin of error but then act as if it doesn't exist, reporting fluctuations within the margin of error as if they were news. Sometimes they even forget to report it.

Of course, they need to do this for every poll, not just the ones where Kerry is "in the lead".