STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 16 June

[ozymandius]

Wednesday June 16, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 222
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 187 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 241 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 454
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 937
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Jeff Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 15, 2004

Dow... 10,380.43 +45.70 (+0.44%)
Nasdaq... 1,995.60 +25.61 (+1.30%)
S&P 500... 1,132.01 +6.72 (+0.60%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.69% -0.18 (-3.78%)
Gold future... 388.70 +4.50 (+1.17%)


|||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.75 Change +0.66 (+0.74%)

http://www.freep.com/money/business/green16e_20040616.htm

ALAN GREENSPAN'S TESTIMONY: Inflation is small concern for Fed

WASHINGTON -- Alan Greenspan downplayed inflation fears and sounded a cautiously upbeat note about U.S. economic recovery on Tuesday in Senate testimony before the start of his fifth and final term at the helm of the Federal Reserve.

Greenspan, 78, is about to embark on what may be his last major challenge as Fed chairman: raising interest rates from today's unusually low levels without destabilizing financial markets or derailing the recovery.

"We seem to be on track, but it's -- as us duffer golfers like to say -- it's not a gimme putt," he told the Senate Banking Committee at a confirmation hearing for his reappointment.

"I think that this particular recovery has some momentum and does not look to be short-lived."

His remarks suggested that the Fed would begin by raising rates a modest quarter of a percentage point at its next meeting on June 29-30, rather than by a half point.

But Greenspan said terrorism remains a major risk for the economy.

"Going forward, we must remain prepared to deal with a wide range of events," he said. "Particularly notable in this regard is the fortunately low, but still deeply disturbing, possibility of another significant terrorist attack in the United States."

Inflation remains a wild card, and a report released Tuesday that found consumer prices rose in May at their fastest pace in more than three years highlighted that risk. The Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6 percent last month and is up 3.1 percent over the past year, the Labor Department reported.

While rising prices dent consumer pocketbooks, economists are heartened that the increase mainly reflects higher gasoline and food prices and not a broader inflationary trend.

The core Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 percent in May, slower than in previous months. It factors out food and energy costs because they vary so much from month to month.

...more...

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH85291_2004-06-16_12-01-35_L16605180

FOREX-Dollar shakes off CPI and Greenspan, gains broadly

LONDON, June 16 (Reuters) - The dollar retraced Tuesday's sharp losses against the euro and gained one percent against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as markets took a calmer view of recent dovish Federal Reserve comments and U.S. inflation.

Investors had pushed the dollar down one cent versus the euro on Tuesday, after growth in core U.S. consumer prices came out smaller than markets had bet and Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan sounded more dovish on the threat of inflation than previously.

The data and Greenspan's comments dashed growing speculation that the Fed may raise rates by half a percentage point on June 30 instead of the widely expected quarter-point hike.

But the dollar's losses were trimmed on Wednesday after the currency appeared to find support on technical trading charts and investors focused on what many analysts believe is an inevitable hike later this month.

"We've seen some dovish comments and moderate inflation but the Fed is still raising rates in June," said Jim Webber, chief economist at TD Securities in London.

"Most of the dollar's recovery this year is due to the strong growth story, and people are going back to that."

...more...

YeeHaw! Look at that dollar go! There's no inflation and we don't care that the interest rates may go up slowly! What a deal!

Great 'toon, Ozy - and in salute, I give you the latest numbers, initially brought to you by our dearly departed Saint RayGun and currently funded by his voodoo student GWB



The estimated population of the United States is 294,323,541
so each citizen's share of this debt is $24,552.72.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of $1.71 billion per day since September 30, 2003

Have a Great Day Marketeers (and lurkers)!

[54anickel]

3. Few more Meanspin quotes here -

Forgive the goldbugginess

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mackenzie/mackenzie061604.html

snip>

We had Chairman Greenspan bullhoring against the incoming tide:

Greenspan: NOT CONCERNED WITH LEVEL OF CONSUMER DEBT

Greenspan: NO CONCERN FOREIGN BANKS WILL DUMP DOLLARS

Greenspan: NOT WORRIED ABOUT U.S. HOUSING MARKET BUBBLE

Greenspan: SAYS SURPRISED IF HOME PRICES RISE FURTHER

Greenspan: SAYS BOOM IN HOME SALES UNLIKELY TO CONTINUE

Greenspan: WAGES LIKELY TO "CATCH UP" TO PRODUCTIVITY

Greenspan: LONG-TERM FISCAL OUTLOOK 'DISTURBING'

Greenspan: HIGHER TAX REVENUES WILL CAP 2004 DEFICIT

Greenspan: ENERGY PRICES NOT FACTOR IN FED POLICY YET

Greenspan: HIGH ENERGY PRICES COULD BECOME A PROBLEM

Greenspan: CAUTIONS THAT FORECASTS ARE OFTEN MISTAKEN

Greenspan: BENIGN INFLATION IS 'GENERAL VIEW' OF FED

Greenspan: FED BELIEVES INFLATION IS NOT A PROBLEM

Then, we were served up the Tsunami:

Greenspan: U.S. ECONOMIC RECOVERY NOT SHORT-LIVED

Followed by this Gem:

Greenspan: REPEATS THAT FED MAY HAVE TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE

[Doctor Smith]

19. I think debt per household is a more useful number.

That's about $97,000 per household.

[54anickel]

2. Quick drive by Mogambo post while I get myself ready to head out to.......

a job fair! :eyes:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty061604.html

Captain's Log, Stardate 6501 mark 3
Richard Daughty
...the angriest guy in economics
The Mogambo Guru
June 15, 2004


snip>

On the Mises site they have included a quote by Murray Rothbard, who was one of the biggest of the brains in the circles of theoretical Austrian School economics, who wrote of "The Myths of Reaganomics" He said, "The greater the amount of inflation generated by the federal government, the higher will be the GNP." This is because GNP, and GDP, too, for that matter, count prices as the measure of GDP. It ain't how MANY widgets you make, it's how MUCH they sell for.

So that is why GDP is rising; the lying government jackasses don't tell you that all this fabulous "growth" in the economy is not growth at all. It is inflation. Oh, they COULD adjust GDP by the GDP deflator, but then their whole reason for being, and collecting paychecks, and securing their places in Hell for their despicable lying and hypocrisy, is to, as their job description implies as far as I can tell, 1) lie to the People to make the government look good, and 2) call Security if the Mogambo ever gets into the building again.

snip>

As if almost on cue, a butt-covering tissue of lies and distortions by the Fed president of the Chicago Fed Bank, Michael Moscow, appeared in the Tuesday Wall Street Journal, entitled "The Inflation Game."

He starts out with the asinine assertion that "Over the last three years, the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy has supported both of our primary goals of maximum sustainable growth and prices stability." Price stability? How can price inflation that is already 50% above the EU ceiling, and rising, be considered "stable"?

Then, in the very next sentence, the following garbage comes out of his mouth, "Not only did it provide useful stimulus to real economic growth, it helped prevent inflation from falling to undesirably low levels." My eyes bug out of my head! For one thing, there is no such thing as inflation "falling to undesirably low levels." Inflation should be zero or less.

In fact, the ultimate beneficial economic scenario is when prices are gently falling, NOT rising, and in this way all of the people on the lower end of the economic scale would achieve a rising standard of living, as would everybody else. Everyone could consume more things with the same amount of money. Then there would be no calls for a higher minimum wage, poverty levels would drop, the Mogambo would stop screaming about how the coming inflation will make you so miserable that you will curse your own mother for having given you birth, and everything would be fine.

This mealy-mouthed moron Moscow goes on to say that inflation is lower than many people have predicted, and he wonders why. And then he goes on to say that "The Federal Reserve Board's staff's inflation forecasts have performed better that those of professional forecasters over the last 20 years. Perhaps this is because Fed forecasts are informed by a wide range of economic indicators, a variety of analyses, a healthy dose of anecdotal information, and judgment." He did not mention the REAL reason, which is outright lying, which is, in actuality, the ONLY reason that inflation is reported to be as low as it is. Actual price inflation is roaring, and yet this clueless lying weasel gets away with such transparent lying that one can only shake one's head and conclude that Americans are idiots, and the Federal Reserve is a clot of lying, deceptive and corrupt jackasses who refuse to admit that they screwed things up royally.

more...

[UpInArms]

4. thanks 54anickel!

I needed that.

and conclude that Americans are idiots, and the Federal Reserve is a clot of lying, deceptive and corrupt jackasses who refuse to admit that they screwed things up royally.

:D

[54anickel]

11. Heh! He tends not to "mince" his words.

[UpInArms]

13. not only does he not "mince"

he doesn't blend, puree or spin them.

:evilgrin:

[KoKo]

14. I had to post this paragraph from Mogambo, because it's ...well...

priceless! :D

Well, the big G-8 meeting came and went, and from the few press reports it was all low-key, and they talked about how awful it was about Iraq, and how the Stanley Cup was a lot of fun, and they told a few jokes (for example, "How many central bankers does it take to change a light bulb?" The answer is "None, because he can lower interest rates, and so that ought to fix the damn light bulb, since they believe that lowering interest rates can cure anything, including your damn stinking light bulb, and how dare you question anything we central bankers do, you little pipsqueak, because we have enough money and power to squash you like a bug just by snapping our fingers, and don't you forget it.") And they all got all caught up on the gossip, and ate like kings while trying to slip Viagra pills into each other's food when they weren't looking, and then they spent the rest of the time conspiring to harass the Mogambo because if I do win the election and become the President of the United States, then I will undoubtedly fulfill Campaign Promise #362, "Round up all the central bankers and lock them into a farmhouse in Waco, Texas, and send Janet Reno to arrest them."

[Media_Lies_Daily]

23. "...and when you get shipped to Waco, take those NeoCons with you!"

[UpInArms]

5. U.S. Housing Starts Fell 0.7% to 1.967 Million Rate in May

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=axkS1YiUrzq0&refer=home

June 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. homebuilders broke ground on more houses than expected in May, and building permits rose to the highest level in more than 30 years, suggesting that rising mortgage rates have yet to curb demand for new homes, a government report showed.

Housing starts totaled 1.967 million units at an annual pace last month, down 0.7 percent from a revised 1.981 million in April, the Commerce Department reported in Washington. Building permits, a sign of future construction, rose 3.5 percent to a 2.077 million rate.

Builders are starting work on contracts signed earlier in the year when mortgage rates were near record lows. Year-to-date, the pace of housing starts has averaged 2.12 million, on pace to surpass last year's total of 1.85 million, the most in 25 years. The U.S. has had the best five months of job growth since 2000, which is helping to support housing even as mortgage rates rise.

``A better performing economy -- jobs, income growth -- that trumps to a certain point mortgage rates,'' said Ken Mayland, chief economist for Clear View Economics in Pepper Pike, Ohio.

Housing starts were forecast to fall to a 1.95 million rate, the median of 62 economist forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey, from the 1.969 million originally reported in April. Estimates ranged from 1.89 million to 2.01 million.

...more...

[54anickel]

33. Hope those builders contracts allowed for cost over-runs. Noticed that

lumber and concrete are still on the rise, along with drywall and a LOT of other stuff.

[UpInArms]

6. pre-opening blather

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight due to short covering as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. Closes above last week's high crossing at 1500 are needed to renew the rally off May's low. However, stochastics and the RSI are overbought and have turned bearish signaling that a top has likely been posted. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 1455.50 would open the door for a possible test of the June 3rd low crossing at 1446.50 later this month. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 4.50 points at 1489.50 as of 6:43 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was higher in overnight trading as it extends the short covering rebound off Monday's low. Closes above last week's high at 1142.20 would open the door for a test of April's high crossing at 1147.10 later this month. However, stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or is near. Closes below Monday's low at 1121.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. The September S&P 500 Index was up 2.50 pts. at 1136 as of 6:45 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

briefing.com

9:18AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. A batch of better than expected economic data has failed to provide an added boost to the futures market... in fact, futures have faded a bit following the Housing Starts, Permits, Ind. Production, and Capacity Utilization reports, but still suggest a slightly higher open for the cash market

8:48AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0. Futures back up a bit in wake of stronger than expected Housing Starts and Building Permits data, but remain at levels that point ot a modestly higher open for the cash market... 10-yr -10/32 at 4.72%

8:27AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. Little change in futures action since last update as indications still point to a positive start for the cash market... Housing Starts (consensus 1950K) and Building Permits (consensus 1970K) data for May due in just a few minutes

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. Positive tone in pre-market action as gains in foreign markets - notably Japan (+2.23%) - Oracle's earnings news, and carryover from yesterday's uptick after a palatable CPI report have served as buying catalysts

[UpInArms]

7. Markets are open at 9:36 EST

Dow 10,372.55 -7.88 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,993.49 -2.11 (-0.11%)
S&P 500 1,131.89 -0.12 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.741% +0.055

[54anickel]

10. That's not the direction the futures were pointing to -sheesh! Turn it

around before someone notices it! :evilgrin:

[Maeve]

12. Wrong way! Wrong way!

Dow 10,365.10 -15.33 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,993.47 -2.13 (-0.11%)
S&P 500 1,131.73 -0.28 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.738% +0.052

[54anickel]

8. Futures blather

9:18AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. A batch of better than expected economic data has failed to provide an added boost to the futures market... in fact, futures have faded a bit following the Housing Starts, Permits, Ind. Production, and Capacity Utilization reports, but still suggest a slightly higher open for the cash market
8:48AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0. Futures back up a bit in wake of stronger than expected Housing Starts and Building Permits data, but remain at levels that point ot a modestly higher open for the cash market... 10-yr -10/32 at 4.72%

8:27AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. Little change in futures action since last update as indications still point to a positive start for the cash market... Housing Starts (consensus 1950K) and Building Permits (consensus 1970K) data for May due in just a few minutes

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. Positive tone in pre-market action as gains in foreign markets - notably Japan (+2.23%) - Oracle's earnings news, and carryover from yesterday's uptick after a palatable CPI report have served as buying catalysts

6:23AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0.

[54anickel]

9. Hmmm, duplicate post, My refresh didn't refresh at all!

[UpInArms]

15. Industrial production jumps in May

http://money.cnn.com/2004/06/16/news/economy/industry_output.reut/

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities surged in May, posting its biggest gain in almost six years, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday.

The Fed said industrial production rose a larger-than-expected 1.1 percent in May after a 0.8 percent gain in April. The May increase was the biggest since a 2.0 percent rise in August 1998.

While the Fed said "unseasonably warm weather" caused output at utilities to surge, the gain in overall production was broad-based and reflected the continued revival in the U.S. factory sector, which began declining ahead of the 2001 recession.


Companies also operated at a faster rate in May, at 77.8 percent of full capacity, up from April's revised 77.1 percent capacity use rate and the highest pace since May 2001.

...more...

This is further "proof" that Skilling had the right idea:

"You must cut costs ruthlessly by 50 or 60 percent ... Depopulate. Get rid of people. They gum up the works."

[UpInArms]

16. Market Numbers and blather at 9:53 EST

Dow 10,376.46 -3.97 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,998.69 +3.09 (+0.15%)
S&P 500 1,134.01 +2.00 (+0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.734% +0.048

10:30AM: The S&P and Nasdaq have managed to post fractional gains as the Dow lags behind, still in negative territory...Treasuries are holding near the session lows as profit taking on yesterday's gains dominates the market...Crude oil prices opened slightly higher, currently up $0.21 at 37.40 for the July futures contract, in light of the halt in crude exports from Iraq following an overnight attack on two pipelines to the port city of Basra...Oil prices have eased in front of this morning's 10:30 ET US weekly inventory report as analysts expect a rise in petro supplies...

In addition, this morning OPEC publicly encouraged non-OPEC nations to increase production...The A/D line and Up/down volume are slightly bearish but the market is holding on to yesterday's gains...NYSE Adv/Dec 1233/1570, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1228/1371

note: those pointy spikes could put your eye out

[UpInArms]

17. update 'cause you gotta check out the 11:00 EST blather

Dow 10,369.93 -10.50 (-0.10%)
Nasdaq 1,995.47 -0.13 (-0.01%)
S&P 500 1,132.87 +0.86 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.745% +0.059

11:05AM: The S&P and Nasdaq made new highs in the past 30 minutes while the Dow continues to lag behind at relatively unchanged for the day...There really isn't much upside pressure in the market and that is leaving us sitting around the opening levels...The Nasdaq has started to flirt with the 2000 level but has yet to push through 2000.58...Homebuilding stocks are getting a boost this morning as Lennar (LEN, 1.56%) beat Q2 earning's estimates by +$0.06 and raised guidance...

Oil and gas stocks are one of the day's biggest gainers as the overnight pipeline attacks in Iraq offer support to oil companies like Haliburton (HAL, 1.33%)...Added support is coming from several upgrades to oil service stocks by Deutsche Bank this morning raising from hold to buy...NYSE Adv/Dec 1552/1377, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1491/1255

[Maeve]

20. And at 11:46, "lagging" again

Dow 10,361.13 -19.30 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 1,993.12 -2.48 (-0.12%)
S&P 500 1,131.81 -0.20 (-0.02%)

[UpInArms]

18. dollar just took a HUGE spike upward

Last trade 90.02 Change +0.93 (+1.04%)

Last tick: 2004-06-16 10:43:35 ET
30-min delayed quote.

Any earthshaking news at 10:40 EST?

[JNelson6563]

22. I dunno...12:15 update shows

Treasuries giving back some of yesterday's significant gains.

12:15:

Dow 10,363.40 -17.03 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 1,991.77 -3.83 (-0.19%)
S&P 500 1,131.69 -0.32 (-0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.731% +0.045

Not very pretty, really. Let's hope it doesn't turn too ugly.

Julie

[KoKo]

21. 12:08 Market Overview: "Summer Trading is blamed"--who writes this stuff?

Market Overview
Wed 12:08pm ET
Summer trading is taking root as the broader market has maintained a narrow range all morning...The pipeline attack in Iraq isn't affecting crude oil futures too much with the July contract currently +$0.16 (+0.43%), but is offering a nice bid to oil & gas stocks like Haliburton (HAL, +2.62%)...more

[54anickel]

26. Summer trading - as in one too many pina coladas out on the deck?

[KoKo]

24. Is Inflation Beast asleep? Business Week/Inflation isn't Dead Yet.

BusinessWeek Online
Inflation Isn't Dead Yet
Wednesday June 16, 8:29 am ET

LABOR WEAKNESS. Lonski thinks the Fed may be willing to tolerate a period of higher inflation in order to avoid destabilizing the housing market with the rapid rise in mortgage rates that aggressive rate hikes would trigger. "The problem is that the Fed is already in a sense behind the curve in that it allowed a steep run up in residential real estate prices," he says.

Lonski also points out that the labor market is still far weaker than it was the last time the Fed began a period of rate hikes to slow the economy. The central bank didn't begin to tighten aggressively until payrolls had expanded by 3.3 million from where they were prior to the start of the 1990 recession, says Lonski. But at last count, payrolls were still off by 1.27 million from February, 2001. Given that, he's not surprised Greenspan isn't in a rush.

"Greenspan is stuck between the bond market, which needs the Fed to be a hawk on inflation, and the political market, which needs job creation to continue," says Peter Cohan, an author and venture-capital investor in Marlborough, Mass.

WATCHING THEIR WORDS. Baker, too, believes Greenspan is in a tough spot, but for different reasons. Since price inflation isn't being driven by a tight labor market this time around, he doesn't think a hike in rates will solve the problem. "This isn't a wage-price spiral," says Baker. "I don't know if there's a lot you could hope to do with short-term rates."

Baker's expectation is that the Fed will hike rates 25 basis points, while claiming in its comments that it remains vigilant on the inflation front. "What matters most is the statement that accompanies the Fed decision," he says.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/040616/nf200406166601_db042_1.html

[KoKo]

28. Another article about "Hidden Unemployment Numbers." from Reuters....

U.S. jobless rate misses "hidden" unemployed

By Reuters | June 14, 2004

NEW YORK -- Buried inside the official U.S. employment report each month is a little-known figure that gives a much less rosy picture of the labor market than the headlines.
ADVERTISEMENT


The government agency that produces the data also publishes an alternative measure that tries to capture the hidden unemployed, those who are not included in the official unemployment rate for various statistical reasons.

That broader measure is dramatically higher, at 9.7 percent in May, compared with the official level of 5.6 percent.

That's an extra 5.96 million people, in addition to the 8.2 million "officially" unemployed, who are waiting on the sidelines and may at some point step back into the labor force.

Although it receives little notice, the adjusted jobless rate has important implications for Federal Reserve policy-makers because it suggests the job market will not tighten as quickly as some in the financial markets believe.

"It shows there is more slack in the labor market than appears on the surface and as job opportunities improve, we'll see people re-entering the labor force to search for work," said former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley.

"That means fears that inflation is about break out all over the place do not seem warranted," he said in an interview.
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2004/06/14/us_jobless_rate_misses_hidden_unemployed/

[UpInArms]

25. Market Numbers and blather at

Dow 10,376.67 -3.76 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,995.70 +0.10 (+0.01%)
S&P 500 1,133.07 +1.06 (+0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.726% +0.040

12:30PM: Lunchtime trading has compressed the market further as the broader market holds at the low end of the day's range...Not that much has changed in the last 30 minutes as the markets hold relatively unchanged... Following Japan's lead, Europe closed with moderate gains running on Greenspan's interest rate comments while the dollar continues to recover as traders anticipate yesterday's move may have been a little extreme... This morning's positive earnings and economic data was just not enough to spark buying...It is likely going to take something special to force a breakout of today's range...NYSE Adv/Dec 1533/1570, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1396/1511

and the "traders" thought yesterday's fall was "too steep" so that is why the dollar is up.

Why didn't I think of that? :shakeshead:

[54anickel]

27. 2:32 update - Doesn't look like it was worth opening shop today for the

markets. Treasury folks would have done well to have just stayed home.

Dow 10,377.73 -2.70 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 1,996.61 +1.01 (+0.05%)
S&P 500 1,133.22 +1.21 (+0.11%)
10-yr Bond 4.721% +0.035
30-yr Bond 5.406% +0.033

NYSE Volume 798,614,000
Nasdaq Volume 954,121,000

2:00PM: Range bound trading persists on the broader averages with the S&P slightly outperforming the Nasdaq and the Dow...Small and mid-caps are showing similar signs of complacence with small-caps slightly outperforming...There are no additions to the list of leaders/laggards as volume continues to dry up on lack of conviction...Fed's Beige Book is due out at 2 ET and may offer some stimulus for a breakout as traders will likely analyze the verbiage looking for clues on the upcoming rate hike ...

Tomorrow offers a handful of economic data including PPI, initial claims, leading indicators and Philly Fed which should provide some added volatility to a market seemingly content with sideways trading...NYSE Adv/Dec 1595/1597, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1505/1502

[54anickel]

29. Greenspan: What, Me Worry?

http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/040616/nf200406169042_db016_1.html

For days, the financial markets had been gearing up to hear the worst on June 15: a higher-than-expected reading on the consumer price index (CPI) for May -- and hawkish Senate testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. When both events turned out to be less onerous than expected, investors heaved a huge sigh of relief.
As the last major inflation benchmark before the June 29-30 Fed policy meeting, this CPI clearly carried more weight than usual. The market is still waiting on the release of the May producer price index (PPI), which has been delayed thanks to the antiquated computer systems at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PLAYING CATCH-UP. The headline CPI result for May was a sizable 0.6% increase. But the core index (stripped of food and energy) rose only 0.2%, much as expected. True, the headline number was fattened by an 8% gain in gasoline and 0.9% jump in food and drinks, but on a year-over-year basis, core inflation rose at a 1.7% annual rate, vs. an 1.8% annual rate in April -- well below the 2% threshold that the Fed deems the level at which inflation would be seen as rising too fast. That moderate core figure helped push Treasury prices higher in active trading, sending yields sharply lower.

Still, that was only part of the story on June 15. In his renomination hearing to another four-year term, the Fed chairman's prepared testimony before the Senate Banking Committee mostly concentrated on the central bank's artful role in navigating treacherous financial seas. Greenspan indicated that recent turbulence necessitated the flexible application of a "risk-management" approach to policy, rather than a dose of inflation-targeting or some other, more rigid model (see BW Online, 6/16/04, "Inflation Isn't Dead Yet").

His post-testimony question-and-answer session with panel members was revealing. Greenspan suggested that the pace of Fed tightening is likely to continue to be "measured" -- particularly at the upcoming June 30 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting -- unless hijacked by subsequent data or events in the interim. He clearly spelled out terrorism as an ongoing risk to which the Fed would respond.

more....

Gotta run out for a couple of more errands Marketeers! Hope to get back in time for the big finale.

Job fair = :boring: More booths selling training opps than any talk of jobs. Maybe I'll just go back to school - AGAIN!!!

Have a great day at the Markets! :hi:

[KoKo]

31. Good Luck at the Jobs Fair, "54." Two articles I posted seem to verify

your difficulty. The "hidden" unemployment. But, then we knew that.

How much more "re-schooling" and "re-training" are folks supposed to do?
Seems like about every 5 years folks are heading off to do both. Remember all the "IT" and Programming jobs that everyone was supposed to
re-train for? Then "poof!" Off to India.

:grr:

[54anickel]

32. Thanks KoKo. I'm just coming back to read the articles you and others

have posted for the day. I'll be sure and catch that hidden unemployment one first.

The job fair pretty much sucked. Like I said, more education booths offering retraining or upping your degree(yeah, like I got money for that!)

I've been a depressed funk again lately....took on too many projects around the house as well as looking for a job so I'm feeling like a miserable failure as I've so far completed none, zero, nada. Lots started, but not a damned thing finished. Gotta check the job websites daily now because they pull them so fast now! There was a job at the wisconsinjobs.com that linked you directly to the actual employers site but the job was already pulled. I called and they explained to me that the wijob site (and others that I've been watching) don't update daily while the employers do. So, by the time wijobs got around to posting it, it was filled. So now I also have to surf each individual employer that I can think of if I don't want to be "a day late" again. Hours of surfing daily, I've tried the old fashion way of hitting the pavement and each employer I went to said you MUST apply thru their websites only, no apps or resumes accepted without a specific open job order.

But enough of my woes. At least I looked damned good today! B-)
New outfit, new shoes, new hair-do and make-up. Even did the finger and toe nails for a change! (Open toed shoes was all I could find). Someday I'll find a job, it may be scrubbing toilets but it'll be a job. As for another job fair, I think I'll pass.

[UpInArms]

30. Fed Districts Report `Modest Increases' in Consumer Prices

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a.ZDDDiAaOjY&refer=us

June 16 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy expanded from early April through early June with ``broad-based'' manufacturing growth and ``modest increases'' in consumer prices, the Federal Reserve said in its latest survey of regional economic conditions.

``Manufacturing activity increased in all Federal Reserve districts,'' said the survey, known as the beige book for the color of its cover. ``Consumer prices increases were generally modest,'' and the survey said there was little pressure on companies to raise wages or salaries.

The report reflects Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's assertion that inflation is ``not likely to be a serious concern'' and that the central bank can stick to its plan for measured increases in the benchmark interest rate unless that changes. Greenspan spoke to the Senate Banking Committee yesterday during a hearing to confirm him for a fifth term as Fed chairman.

The Federal Open Market Committee will use the beige book survey as part of its deliberations on interest rate policy at its meeting June 29-30. The FOMC is expected to raise the benchmark overnight bank lending rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent, the average estimate of 52 economist surveyed by Bloomberg.

The survey released today said hiring is growing at a faster pace and some regions saw plant expansions and openings in manufacturing, transport, construction and health-care services.

Latest Survey

``District reports indicated little or muted upward pressure on wages, although the rising cost of health insurance remained a key issue,'' the report said.

Most districts also reported rising raw material prices, especially for steel, petrochemicals and wood products.

The central bankers have left the U.S. benchmark overnight lending rate at 1 percent, the lowest since 1958, since last June. With the economy growing the fastest in almost two decades, Fed officials said after their May 4 policy meeting that they would begin raising borrowing costs at a ``measured'' pace.

...more...

[54anickel]

34. Closing numbers

Dow 10,379.58 -0.85 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,998.23 +2.63 (+0.13%)
S&P 500 1,133.56 +1.55 (+0.14%)
font color=red]10-yr Bond 4.732% +0.046
30-yr Bond 5.410% +0.037

NYSE Volume 1,165,656,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,358,310,000

Close Dow +0.85 at 10379.58, S&P +1.59 at 1133.60, Nasdaq +2.63 at 1998.23: The late-day bid on the broad based averages didn't last too long, posting just fractional gains on the S&P and Nasdaq while the Dow slipped into negative territory...Today's activity typifies summer trading as the market commonly lacks both direction and credible volume...Steady leadership came from casino & gaming in light of Mandalay Resort Group's (MBG, +0.14%) acceptance of MGM Mirage's (MGG, -1.2%) buyout offer while oil & gas continued to show strength on the Iraqi pipeline situation...
Weakness was seen early on in computer & electronic retail despite Best Buy (BBY, -2.03%) beating the street's estimates...The poor performance by Oracle (ORCL, -2.99%) today really weighed on the software industry and kept the Nasdaq at the low end of the day's range while semiconductors underperformed all day...Small-caps outperforming the broader market, which lacked directional bias all day, posting gains of +0.38% compared to +0.14% on the S&P, 0.13% on the Nasdaq and -0.1% on the Dow...All in all it was a very uneventful day...

The Dow was plagued by weaknesses in Caterpillar (CAT, -1.75%), United Technologies (UTX, -0.67%) and Wal-Mart (WMT, -1.02%); homebuilding stocks got a boost from Lennar (LEN, -1.88%) early on, but couldn't maintain...The 10-year closed at 4.71% as profit taking on yesterday's rally pushed yields as high as 4.751% ... Expectations were looking for a larger move in crude oil prices (+$0.13/bbl, +0.36%) in light of the pipeline bombing in Iraq since repairs are estimated to take at least 2 weeks to complete...In addition, crude inventories were up but came in less than expected...

After a 3-day delay, May PPI is slated for release tomorrow at 8:30 ET but many expect the CPI release yesterday did the job of pricing in the upcoming Fed move...NYSE Adv/Dec 1735/1538, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1680/1415

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1777 (51%) 1680 (51%)
Declines 1506 (43%) 1415 (43%)
Unchanged 162 (4%) 160 (4%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 631 (54%) 627 (46%)
Down Vol* 511 (43%) 708 (52%)
Unch. Vol* 26 (2%) 23 (1%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 96 67
New Lo's 40 37

[54anickel]

35. From the "WTF is this doing on Yahoo Finance?" department

Bush Gets Bump Off Reagan; Views On Iraq Also Improve

President Bush's prospects for re-election and optimism about Iraq both edged up last week as the nation mourned the death of Ronald Reagan, according to the latest IBD/TIPP poll.
In a three-way race, Bush leads Kerry 43% to 40%, while independent Ralph Nader gets 5%. In a two-way race, Bush edges Kerry 44% to 43%. The poll was taken June 8-13.

:eyes: So what'd Raygun get?

Reagan's Halo Effect

In the past week, the Iraq Optimism Index advanced 2.2 points to 52.3, a 4% increase from the week before. The Iraq outlook component improved to 56.3 from 53.3. The policy satisfaction component gained 1.5 points to 48.4 from 46.9.

"When Ronald Reagan was president, he made significant impact on the nation's confidence and optimism," noted Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD's polling partner. "The recent coverage of Reagan's life has had a positive impact on optimism concerning our efforts in Iraq.

HUH? Iraq Optimism Index :wtf:

[54anickel]

36. Today's WrapUp by Ike Iossif (Lotsacharts)

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/2004/0615.html

Summary for week ending 6-11-04

Last week (6-4-04) I said: "Last week's market action was one of the most extraordinary and conflicting we have seen in the last 16 years that we have been students of the markets. The indices had a hard time going down; they also had a hard time going up; however, on balance they had a harder time going down than going up! Several indicators are giving strong bullish signals such as the high put/call ratio, the COT numbers showing commercial traders net long, the NYSE member net buy/sell reached a new record number indicating that NYSE members bought the largest amount of inventory ever. Notice the chart provided by decisionpoint.com the previous two times that their buying activity came close to last week's record level was at the exact bottom in October 2002 and March 2003! On the surface, all the above are very bullish factors and the market ought to be able to capitalize on the set up and rally sharply. However, at the same time we got the volatility ratios back up at the top of their range, which they have been able to penetrate only once in August of 2000. Volume has been low despite the rally. There are more stocks below their 200 MA today than in the beginning of May, the McClellan Oscillator rallied 700 points, and the SP managed to gain just 4.1% when in the past the average price gain that has accompanied the up-thrust in the Oscillator has been 14%. New lows routinely exceed new highs, and most "good news" are sold into. On the surface, all the above are very bearish factors, and the market ought to feel the pressure. In other words, one set of data is painting a very bullish picture, while another set of data is painting an equally bearish picture. Obviously both can't be telling the truth; a patient is either dying or recovering; he can't be "dying and recovering" at the same time; these two states of being are mutually exclusive. However, that is what the market is giving us to work with in terms of data measuring its internals. Therefore, we'll rely for the time being on pattern recognition techniques in order to determine what the market will do next, and how to be positioned accordingly.

(Current Week) The Dow and the SP overcame resistance and closed marginally above it. At the same time, all indicators are above zero and rising, implying that the path of least resistance ought to be on the upside, at least for the short term. On balance the bulls have the upper hand. However, I continue to be bothered by the fact that the Volatility ratios remain at the top of their range, a top that has been exceeded only once since their inception, and that was in August of 2000, a real awful time to be buying stocks. Is it possible that the break-out is a false one, and the action of the past few days, will turn out to be a "bull-trap?" Anything is possible. That is why I insist all positions that were open due to the "break-out" have stops at the break-even level; therefore, if the markets turn down, there will be no harm done. The bottom line is this: Technically speaking, as long as the indices remain above support (see table below), the break-out is valid, and the trend is up, whether I am skeptical about it or not!