New Cdn poll: "Debate has minimal impact on frontrunners; NDP up"

[Minstrel Boy]

From SES-CPAC, the first post debate numbers:

Conservatives 32%
Liberals 32%
NDP 21%
BQ 12%
Green 4%

http://www.sesresearch.com/election/SES%20CPAC%20June%2017E.pdf

NDP up two percentage points, and the Conservatives down two.

Also released today are regional tracking figures, comparing June 6 to June 16:
http://www.sesresearch.com/election/Regional%20June%2017.pdf

The corporate media here - that is, practically everyone but the CBC - has been trying to make this a Liberal/Conservative story. But those parties have stalled, and the NDP momentum is becoming harder to ignore.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. With two weeks to go, could the NDP win a minority government?

[Minstrel Boy]

3. Pretty unlikely, much as I'd like to hope so.

To do so we'd have to take the lion's share of seats in Ontario. We did something even more outrageous in 1990, when the NDP came from behind to win a majority provincial government. We did that with 38% of the vote. Now, in Ontario, we have 25%. Could we pick up 13% in 10 days in the province? Possible, but not probable.

There is perhaps a window opening to overtake the Liberals. Liberal support is broadly distributed, but shallow. The NDP is not strong everywhere, but where we are, we can potentially win a lot of seats. If the Liberal vote dips into the high twenties, and the NDP continues to climb, we could even see strategic voting work against the Liberals, as the NDP becomes a more serious contender to stop the Conservatives.

Whatever happens, these are interesting days.

[Canuckistanian]

2. Whoo-hoo!

Good news for us NDPers. Nice to see us with a comfortable lead over the Bloc!

[Frederic Bastiat]

4. You do realize the Bloc exist only in Quebec right?

Go Layton, Go Harper!

[Canuckistanian]

7. What I meant was we would hold the balance of power

In a minority government, the winner of the election is going to try to make an alliance with the 3rd place party. The Conservatives were already flirting with the prospect of joining with the Bloc in such a scenario.

[freeforall]

30. Go Harper????

You do realize that he is the Conservative (i.e., ReThug-like) candidate?

[Minstrel Boy]

33. Oh, he does.

That's his sarcastic way of repeating the hoary Liberal scaremongering that "a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Conservatives."

If only a vote for the Liberals were a vote for liberals rather than "Team Martin", the NDP might not be faring so well.

Besides, the tracking poll suggests that the NDP is feeding off the Conservatives anti-Liberal vote, not the Liberals' support.

[metis]

13. vote on line

Left hand side-top


http://www.politicswatch.com/VoteSelectorQuiz2004.html

[freeforall]

29. Wow! This is a great website!

I got Layton = 100%. Very interesting, I am usually a Liberal supporter, but have thought of voting NDP this time.

Obviously, I have some serious thinking to do!

[Minstrel Boy]

5. Liberal or Conservative choice "an exercise in mass hypnotism"

An open letter from NDP members of Scarborough Southwest:

The media is trying to sell the perception that the NDP cannot win and that the only viable choices in Canadian federal politics are the Liberals and the brand new Stephen Harper Conservative Party - a hybrid of the old Reform / Alliance and Canada's original PC's (they say right in their name that they have lost the 'Progressive' and are just conservative now!)

Its an exercise in mass hypnotism.

The only party that really looks out for Canadian citizens - not just Canadian millionaires...the party that ushered in Canada's health care that the other two parties have been so busy dismantling in recent years....the party that looks out for the interest of the worker not JUST the CEO...this party - the NDP - is the one the media would like to portray as some kind of fringe group with no chance of winning.

...

We're 10 points behind the Liberals and the Conservatives. That's really not an unbeatable margin considering that 25% of voters are still undecided; and there are a lot of youth who have never voted. If they hear our message they are sure to park their votes our way. Also, look how quickly Harper came out of nowhere to now have a chance at beating Martin when no one thought that was a possibility before.

So, to everyone reading this who would like to vote NDP - DO!!! Especially those of you who have wanted to before. You can really make a difference this time.
http://www.vivelecanada.ca/article.php?story=20040616171250246

[bushwakker]

10. Yes and it makes no difference if Gore beats Bush

Dems and Repubs - just two sides of the same coin.

[Minstrel Boy]

12. And third parties in the US do not account for 37% of the popular vote.

You'll understand Canada a lot better if you stop trying to apply to it a US template.

[Frederic Bastiat]

14. Well we can thank third parties for...

Bush and Harper right? Are you purposefully downplaying the role Nader had in 2000? Or the effects of Layton's/Duceppe's constant attacks on the Liberals?

[Minstrel Boy]

17. I'm sorry you think we don't play nice with the Liberals.

Stop blaming the Liberals' woes on the opposition. I make no apologies for not joining "Team Martin." And come to think of it, left-liberals like Sheila Copps and Charles Caccia aren't on Martin's side, either.

Nader's 4% or so is equivalent to the Canadian Green's popular support. But parties broadly understood to be progressive - the NDP, the BQ and the Greens - account for 37% of Canadians. We're not Liberals. Get over it.

[CHIMO]

18. Have To Bust Your Balloon

The green's are a right of center party.
The bloc is a separatist party. They do not deserve any inclusion on federal parties from other federal parties.

[Minstrel Boy]

20. I know. That's why I said

"parties broadly understood to be progressive". I was thinking of adding "sometimes mistakenly so". :-)

[Frederic Bastiat]

27. You don't have to be sorry

The only viable parties in Quebec are Liberal or Bloc. You can keep your conservatives.

[CHIMO]

28. May I add

That we may be missing a major point here. Take a look at King Klein's comments last night(if you can find it, where he lashed out at Ann M).
What is he so angry about.
Could it be a case of the thin edge of the wedge?
Martin is promising to give a certain amount of the gas tax to the cities. Harper is going to give a certain amount to the proviences.
Martin is giving back the GST to the cities. The cities are in full agreement with this.
My opinion.
It looks like "City States" to me. If you want to prevent my ideas and outlook then I will do an end run. Everyone wants more power at the bottom.
Guess what it is being offered here and we are starting to see a reaction to it.
Anyways my opinion. Has anyone looked at this way?

[CHIMO]

42. News for You

Layton just lost tons of votes in Alberta. He doesn't know who the enemy is. When he supports King K he lost the swelling opposition to this regime.
Too bad we had ndp support the american packers against Canadians.
Two strikes and you are OUT.

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

16. So, doesnt the NDP actually have MPs? And are in provincial govts?

The NDP is much much more sucessfull than any modern US third party.

[bushwakker]

22. I'm not blind. I see two parties of the left and one of the right.

Enjoy your right wing government. Won't you be pround to see your PM standing side by side with our shitty president - supporting his foregn policy disasters. No, I don't understand the nuances of Canadian politics but I do understand when the left battles amongst itself and gives (C)conservatives power.

[CHIMO]

23. Fully Agree

With you.
But watch what happens after the election, as the conservatives as they are now known, were formerly known as the reform, before you saw Grenich(Excuse my spelling) they started into the government in 1988.
There are many leaders who are on the right that have been taken over by this coup, but want to see this animal declare their true colours.
It will come after the election when the present conservative members start exercising their power.
And actually many members of what was formerly called the right are further left of where the libs are on star wars.
Some of the names to watch for are Joe Clark, David Orchard. And for the Canadians first, Maud Barlow and the political party CAP, which I am sure you have not heard anything about. But they were taken down the isle by the NDP and then dumped by their labour members.. At which time it was too late to become fully involved in this election.
Summary
There are a lot more players than one sees. (And I never started talking about Irish Eyes and Henry K's friends)

[SidDithers]

51. Canadians don't elect a government...

They elect a parliament. Parliament selects the government.

Even if the conservatives win the most seats, they might not form the government. The election is too close, and there are too many possibilities to say anything for certain right now.

Sid

(How's that for nuances? :) )

[CHIMO]

15. Careful What You Wish

For.
Have you thought that there may be more room to grow by taking votes from the conservatives that are disgruntled liberals and some disenchanted pc,s.
If you took 12% more from the conservatives you would have the ndp minority.
Just think, going into partnership with the conservatives or would it be the bloc?
Why not think big or out of the box.

[Minstrel Boy]

19. Looking at the polls, the NDP's recent gains have come from

the Conservatives. The strategy lately has been to target those who seek change, but don't trust the Conservatives. Might be paying off.

[CHIMO]

21. Looks Like It

But to make any further gains the pickings might be better elsewhere. The libs may have bottomed out. There are lots of areas that are not being developed. Manny, many areas which I think are profitable.
BSE in the west. The grass roots cattle people are looking to form co-operatives for slaughtering cattle and the provincial government is trying to stop them.
Many areas of the country are experiencing high increases in car insurance.

There are many more. All politics is local, except in this elections.

[daleo]

6. Technically, this is all within margin of error

So, we don't really know if anyone is up or down with these small shifts. But, I take your point, that the corporate media has been trying to create a bandwagon effect for the Tories (propaganda technique number 3?) with most of their poll reporting.

My Canwest paper today said that (rough paraphrase) "a poll by a former liberal party pollster that was shown by Liberal insiders to Canwest indicated that the Conservatives had pulled ahead, etc., etc."

Propaganda points here:
- we are not given the polling source (but the comment that it was by a formal liberal party pollster is supposed to make it sound authentic).
- we are not given the source of the leaked data (but Liberal insiders is supposed to make it sound convincing).
- we are given only a few vague numbers or phrases ("pulling ahead").

Canwest seems to have really went over to the Conservatives since Izzy Asper died. Maybe they always were, but shilled for the Liberals a bit when it looked like they could never lose.

[Minstrel Boy]

8. Canwest is just awful this election.

They really are shameless. They're doing all they can to create the impression of Harpermania out there, and that the Conservatives are on track to a majority.

They want Harper, because they want the CRTC declawed so Global can be free of Canadian-content regulation. They're so transparent it would be funny, if it wasn't so serious.

[daleo]

9. Good call on the CRTC implications

I am sure the tax breaks the Harperites are promising are important to them as well, at least in an abstract sense.

[freeforall]

31. Shameless Albertans...

I must say, I love living in Alberta, but as a liberal former Montrealer, this province's penchant to always vote PC is a pain in the ass! Talk about feeling as if my vote never counts, LOL.

However, the NDP can give Harper et al a run for his money out here - especially in Edmonton, which tends to be more liberal than the rest of the province, for some weird reason.

Will do some more research, but this time I am thinking of voting NDP. LOL, this is a novel experience - it is the first time I have ever been in the "undecided" category in any election!

[TrogL]

11. How come the Marijuana Party doesn't get numbers?

Their leader gave a really good speech on the radio last night.

[freeforall]

32. LOL, their supporters are too stoned to get out and vote? (n/t)

[Minstrel Boy]

34. "Dude, it's Dave. You voted yet?"

"Dave's not here, man."

[freeforall]

35. LOL, gotta love it!

At least in this country we have the freedom to have a Marijuana Party or whatever party wants to run. I wonder whatever happened to the Rhinos?

[Hand]

36. Not to mention the Natural Law Party...

...(for our US fans) a national party comprising followers of Maharishi Mahesh Yogi (transcendental meditation) and led by Doug Henning (actually, Dr. Doug Henning, Ph.D, Maharishi International University), the rather famous nagician.

They fielded candidates in all ridings in 1993 (and possibly 1997). Their platform advocated Yogic Flying as the cure for all economic and social ills, to be administered by an assembly of 7000 yogic fliers. Yogic Fliers assume the full lotus posture and sort of bounce up and down.

Wags among the political classes observed that a gang of 7000 bouncing space cases couldn't do any worse a job of running Canada than the current mob... it was quite a hoot! BRING BACK THE NATURAL LAW PARTY!

:bounce: :bounce: :silly: :silly: :crazy: :crazy: :wtf:

[Spazito]

24. Interesting article on the Governor General's responsibility in this...

Paul Martin Could Lose Election, Still Stay in Power

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's Paul Martin could stay prime minister even if his ruling Liberals end up with fewer seats than the opposition Conservatives in the June 28 election because the Canadian political system favors the incumbent.


Although polls show neither party will get a majority in the 308-seat House of Commons, constitutional experts say Martin gets first chance to try to form a government even if the Conservatives end up with more seats than the Liberals.


"Martin remains the prime minister after the election until he either resigns or fails to prove that he can command the confidence of the House," said University of Toronto professor Peter Russell, a leading authority on the Constitution.


Martin would need formal permission from Governor-General Adrienne Clarkson, Canada's head of state, to try to form a new government with the support of minor parties.

more

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=nm/canada_politics_government_col

[CHIMO]

25. He Might Try It

But I doubt it. He is toast if he does not have a majority.
I don't think that he would like to be really humiliated. The libs have no mercy when you loose. And even less when you throw away an election that could have been a cake walk.

[Spazito]

26. It is interesting, I knew that if he had more seats than the faux..

Conservatives but not enough for a majority the Liberals would win but I had forgotten this aspect with regard to the possibility of retaining power if he were able to swing a coalition with, say, the NDP. I suspect he would not go down that road but who knows.

[Hand]

37. Woldn't be surprised...

Martin has been slavering after the PM's job for so long that I suspect ambition would override shame if he had the chance...

[SidDithers]

52. This isn't a "way out there" scenario, imho...

Unless the Conservatives can swing some sort of deal with the Bloc (though Duceppe has said he wouldn't do that), a conservative minority would exist only as long as the other 3 parties would allow it. I could see a coalition government made up of Liberal and NDP members, and could even imagine NDP'ers in cabinet positions.

Jack Layton as Deputy PM, anyone? That'd be OK with me.

Sid

[Minstrel Boy]

38. Whoa! Friday's numbers: Liberals 34%, Con 29%, NDP 22%

Interestinger and Interestinger:

Liberal 34%
Conservative 29%
NDP 22%
BQ 10%
Green 5%
http://www.sesresearch.com/election/SES%20CPAC%20June%2018E.pdf

The analysis says this reflects a Liberal boost registering from the first night of anti-Harper attack ads. And the NDP continue to profit by a bleeding of anti-Liberal votes from the Conservatives.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

39. So long as the reich looses!

[daleo]

40. Canwest poll was quite different today

"The COMPAS, Inc. poll conducted for the National Post and Global National shows Paul Martin's Liberals with the support of 35% of voters compared with 34% for Stephen Harper's Conservatives. The Tories would stand to win more seats, however, because their support is more spread out.

The poll also shows the NDP under Jack Layton at 17% and Gilles Duceppe's Bloc Quebecois at 11%, although the separatist party holds a 10-percentage-point lead over the Liberals in Quebec."

Not that I necessarily believe that one, as Canwest has been shilling for the Harperites quite badly this election. I actually like that fact that the SES polls are tracking polls, asking the same question, so you can see a trend.

The Globe and Mail had a brief allusion to an internal Liberal Party poll which showed the Liberals pulling ahead of the Tories, although they called it a "not" in their "hot and not" feature. Go figure.

On edit - the Canwest poll had a 4% MOE, only 600 polled.

[Minstrel Boy]

41. And Ipsos Reid may be out tonight

with different numbers as well. They usually inflate the Green count and depress the NDP. The polsters all have their unique ticks.

As you say about Canwest, they're shameless shills for the Conservatives, so I pay little attention to them.

I like SES-CPAC because the trends are more significant than the numbers on any particular poll, and daily tracking reveals that best. I also trust their impartiality.

[Spazito]

43. Canwest is right wing, imo

I trust other polls more, regardless of whether they show the faux Conservatives or the Liberals up. Global is decidedly slanted in their coverage.

[Minstrel Boy]

44. EKOS poll in Sat Toronto Star: Con 31.4%, Lib 29, NDP 20.5%

"contrary to some reports, there is no groundswell of Conservative support. ... Support for the Conservatives has basically been frozen around 32 per cent throughout the campaign."

Here's the breakdown. Seat-rich BC and Ontario are three-way races, and the NDP vote is the most efficient of the three. We could be looking at a lot of seats.

BC
Cons 36%
Liberals 32%
NDP 29%
Green 3%

Alberta
Cons 58%
Liberal 21%
NDP 11%
Green 10%

Saskatchewan/Manitoba
Cons 41%
NDP 30%
Liberal 29%

Ontario
Cons 35
Liberal 33
NDP 26

Quebec
BQ 58%
Liberal 22%
Cons 9%
NDP 9%
Green 2%

Atlantic Provinces
Liberal 40%
Cons 35%
NDP 23%
Green 2%

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1087596611089&call_pageid=968332188492&col=968793972154

[daleo]

46. I have compared national results for this poll, with today's Globe's poll

Star Globe
Con 31.4 32
Lib 29 29
NDP 20.5 16
Bloc 14.2 12
Green 4.3 7
Total 99.4 96

Notice that the Globe poll doesn't add up to 100. What's up with that? Also, notice that the Globe poll gives the NDP a 4 point haircut, the Bloc a 2 point dip, and the Greens a 3 point bounce. As you said earlier, they always show the Greens as abnormally high.

But, I don't get the missing 4% - it isn't "don't know", because about 120 of the 1000 polled were undecided - the ones they listed were just the 884 who were decided. They must have a "none of the above" category, or the Communist Party will surprise a lot of people.

I find these polls most peculiar, especially as we head into the home stretch.

[Minstrel Boy]

47. The 4% is for "other", which is even more bizarre

than if it were missing altogether.

What is that: the Marijuana Party? Christian Heritage Party?

I find it interesting how close they are - SES-CPAC included - for Lib, Con and BQ, but Ipsos-Reid is at great variance for the NDP.

I trust EKOS and SES-CPAC more than Ipsos, because I see no chance for Green and "other" to total 11%. That is way off base.

[JamesBurr]

45. Yup. And..

Bush is surging in the polls in america. The latest Harris poll has Bush at 48% to Kerry's 42% and Nader at 7%! Gonna be a real fun election year!

[Minstrel Boy]

48. "Layton increasingly confident going into last week of campaign"

An optimistic bump for the home stretch. Some quotes from a Layton rally in Toronto:


"It’s not for any politician to presume what the election result will be. But let me say this. Slowly, and quietly, and increasingly clearly, I think a very wide agreement is forming among Canadians.

"I think the Canadian people have decided that the Liberals are not going to get a fourth term … because they don’t deserve one.

"And I think the Canadian people are going to send Stephen Harper a very tough message – giving his party fewer votes, perhaps many fewer votes, than they gave Stockwell Day and Joe Clark last time out.

"I’m coming around to believing that because that’s what the polls have really been saying for weeks, and because I know that the last thing Canadians want to do is to import George Bush’s reckless tax cuts, his military adventurism, and his intolerant social views here. And that’s what Stephen Harper wants to do.

"And so, slowly, and quietly, and with increasing confidence, I’m coming around to believing that Canadians are going to do something new this election."
http://ndp.ca/newsdetail/nid-2046

[daleo]

50. I am beginning to think it will be more like a Liberal/NDP coalition

Not a Liberal government supported by a smallish but critical NDP group, but rather a fairly large number of NDP members with a somewhat larger number of Liberals. The Harperites may actually have a plurality of members, but the Bloc won't cooperate with them when push comes to shove, so a Lib/NDP coalition would have the most members. The RW media will scream if this happens, even though it would be a fair representation of the popular vote.

Just a hunch. I haven't worked seat numbers or anything.

[Lisa]

49. I met a Conservative who claimed Joe Clark was "not a real PM"!

It was amazing. One of Harper's supporters -- when I pointed out that Joe Clark had warned Tory voters that this wasn't the same Progressive Conservative party as before, the guy just exploded and said that Joe Clark "was illegitimate because he was never elected by the Canadian people".

The guy also claimed that he "knew for a fact" that Maher Arar and his wife were both terrorist moles, and that he could hardly wait for them to be found out so that the NDP and the Liberals would be made to look stupid.

Coming from someone who can't even get his own party's political history straight, I don't put much credence in his "facts".