CNN: Poll finds apparent Kerry lead in close contest

[question everything]

Survey taken after Edwards tapped for vice presidential run

Monday, July 12, 2004 Posted: 6:15 PM EDT (2215 GMT)

(CNN) -- Sen. John Kerry apparently leads President Bush among likely voters surveyed after he chose Sen. John Edwards as his Democratic running mate, but the race remains close, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Monday.

The survey of 706 likely voters, conducted between Thursday and Sunday, found 50 percent would support the Kerry-Edwards ticket, and 46 percent would vote for President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney.

(snip)

A previous poll, conducted June 21-23, found Bush barely leading Kerry, 48-47. Bush had led Kerry as much as 55-43 in similar polls going back to early January.

In the current poll, a wider sample of 891 registered voters showed a slightly larger apparent lead for Kerry, but one that was still within the margin of error.

Fifty-one percent said they would vote for Kerry-Edwards, and 44 percent supported Bush-Cheney.

More..


Find this article at:
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/07/12/presidential/index.html

[Pachamama]

1. Translation - With media bias factor integrated in, this means for Kerry

...a LANDSLIDE victory!!!

:kick:

[MORON]

19. However, Bush is leading in World Stupidity Awards Voting!

I'm serious.

http://stupidityawards.com/

[gratuitous]

2. Well, that clearly can't be right!

Everyone knows how wildly popular our war-time president is! Maybe they didn't weight the Republican responses sufficiently?

[Zeke]

10. Yeah!

Oh baby, that's laughs!

Very funny. Nice! :)

[drscm]

11. NOT War-Time President. *Bush calls himself a "War President." eom

eom

[struggle4progress]

25. In February, Texans will say: "He war president but ain't no more."

[Beetwasher]

3. Apparently?????WTF Is Up W/ That??

It's like their saying "What is wrong w/ you people! Why don't you like our glorious leader???"

That's actually a statistically significant lead, NOT a fucking "apparent" lead. Assholes...

[question everything]

6. That's because the margin of error is +/- 4 point

Still previously they were dead even.

I watched the program and the ticket really got a boost among younger than 50 while none with older than 50. Also among liberal and moderates - the sought after swing votes - but, of course, not among conservatives. And no "bounce" in the south..

[Beetwasher]

8. They Are Also Only Giving Us "likely" and "registered" Voters

Not the total numbers. That's important because there will be a huge turnout this election by people who are wouldn't be considered "likely" and who have yet to be "registered". I'd like to see the raw totals, I'll bet Kerry is significantly higher.

You'll see they give the wider sample of "registered" but NOT the numbers on the total sample. Interesting that...

[lancdem]

16. This far in advance of the election, polls of RVs

are more reliable. That's why I'm happy to see Kerry ahead by 7 among RVs. And this poll was done a number of days after Edwards was chosen, son the bounce is still there.

[Beetwasher]

18. I Agree, In Theory

If this were 1. a truly objective poll and 2. a normal election, I'd agree completely. However, I think (or maybe hope!;-)) that the total is more indicative of the actual numbers in this case! I think turnout is going to be surprising to a lot of people and it will be neither the "registered" or "likely" voters who decide this election...

[Rose Siding]

4. "slightly larger apparent lead"?

"barely, hardly, infintesimal, miniscule, teensy-weensy..."

C'mon CNN! Get out the thesaurus! You're writing about a DEMOCRAT!

[Worst Username Ever]

5. Hold your horses (donkeys)

We still have a lot of work to do. I recall people saying Edwards would mean a 15 point jump for Kerry. It seems like no matter WHAT happens (whether it me the selection of an outstanding running mate for Kerry, or the finding of torture (torture!) for Bush) these things slide more than three points in any direction. We still need to make sure those three points are on the right side come election day.

But God, the phrase "Landslide victory for Kerry" does get my heart racing.

[Frances]

9. Actually it was Bush's people who said 15%

would be what they expected. That way they can say anything under 15% is not what it should be.

All the same, I think the poll is good news.

[wtmusic]

7. Diebold has to reprogram the software AGAIN...

what a pain in the ass! :D

[NeoConsSuck]

12. Corporate NeoCon Network (CNN) are slime..

Sen. John Kerry apparently leads? Apparently?? When our vacation pResident was leading, the word 'apparently' never was used to describe the poll results.

USAToday.com has the same poll results story, but there is no 'apparently' to describe the results:

The Democratic ticket now leads President Bush and Vice President Cheney 50% to 45% among likely voters, according to the survey taken Thursday through Sunday, with independent candidate Ralph Nader at 2%. The Kerry-Edwards lead widens to 8 points, 50%-42%, among registered voters.

[Beetwasher]

13. Do They Give the Numbers On The TOTAL Sample?

I haven't seen those numbers yet, only "registered" and "likely". I'll bet the total numbers are REALLY awful for Bush and that's why they're not showing them...

[theoceansnerves]

14. i really dont understand

how this could not be 70/30 or 65/35, the low number being whatever the hard core base is that will always vote republican. ugh.

[Imperialism Inc.]

21. I don't get it either.

As many have pointed out there have been lots of republican defections, even high level ones. This would suggest that a lot of Gore voters now like Bush. I find that hard to believe.

[wyethwire]

15. so much for the "no bounce" meme

[markses]

17. What a grudging depiction of the poll

Have any of Bush's leads ever - EVER - been APPARENT?

Notice also that the Bush leads are protrayed in numbers, while the kerry lead is presented in words. Scanners see the Bush numbers, not the kerry lead words. A disgusting piece of journalism by a no-account hack. Sickening. If it was Bush up by seven, the headline would be BUSH OPENS COMMANDING LEAD: COUNTRY REJECTS KERRY CANDIDACY!

These people are fucking cockroaches.

[MORON]

20. Hey, Bush is leading Kerry...in the World Stupidity Awards!

http://stupidityawards.com/

[question everything]

22. Welcome to DU

:toast:

[Democat]

23. Media is so upset that Kerry is leading, they won't even admit it

Apparently.

[PartyPooper]

24. Here's some more encouraging data that Kerry beats Bush.

http://electoral-vote.com

:dem:

[neverborn]

26. Early January?!

WTF was the media polling Bush v. Kerry back then!?

[regnaD kciN]

27. The interesting figure here...

...is that, in a two-candidate race, Kerry leads Bush 50-46. In a three-candidate race, it's Kerry 50, Bush 45, Nader 2.

So it seems that the Naderite claim is correct -- Ralphie is taking more votes from Bush than Kerry!

:wtf:

[NeoConsSuck]

28. CNN (Corporate NeoCon Network) has removed poll news from it website..

If it's bad news for the NeoCons, hide it. USAToday.com still has it on their entrance page.

Ah, don't you love this 'fair and balanced' media we have since corporations took over?