STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 6 August

[ozymandius]

Friday August 6, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 167
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 88
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 238 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 292 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 505
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 988
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 5, 2004

Dow... 9,963.03 -163.48 (-1.61%)
Nasdaq... 1,821.63 -33.43 (-1.80%)
S&P 500... 1,080.70 -17.93 (-1.63%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.40% -0.03 (-0.65%)
Gold future... 394.80 UNCH (UNCH)


|||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ClintonTyree]

1. Could it be................

another "Black Friday"? Job numbers are due at 8:30, if they're disappointing it could be a VERY bad day. I haven't checked to see what oil's doing today, just got up.
The market seems unimpressed by any good news lately, oil is the albatross hanging around the market's neck. Until that improves in a trend lasting more than one day, things look pretty shaky for the old casino.

[Junkdrawer]

2. Oil hit new highs again....

http://money.cnn.com/2004/08/06/markets/oil.reut/index.htm?cnn=yes

[ozymandius]

6. Like I said a few days ago...

I wonder how the stock market would act if the price of oil were not such a major player in world economics?

[ozymandius]

8. Oil threat to world economy

Ashley Seager
Thursday August 5, 2004
The Guardian


Fears that the world economy could be derailed by higher energy costs intensified last night after the price of oil set fresh records on both sides of the Atlantic.

With petrol prices set to reach record levels within days, the chancellor, Gordon Brown, was said to be monitoring the situation from his holiday in Scotland. Oil cartel Opec last night tried to soothe the market, saying it could - and would - pump more oil.

-cut-

Prices have been driven higher each day of the past week, first as Russian oil giant Yukos said it faced bankruptcy and might have to cease pumping oil, then as the US announced a terror alert and, finally, by an attack on an Iraqi oil pipeline.

Economists have calculated that a $10 a barrel rise in oil prices knocks about 0.5 percentage points off world growth after 12 to 18 months. Brent has averaged around $25 a barrel in recent years, so a sustained price above $40 could knock the world economy hard.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,3604,1276389,00.html

[54anickel]

96. Bush adding more oil to U.S. petroleum reserve

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/energy/2722562

WASHINGTON - The Bush administration said today it is adding more oil to the U.S. emergency petroleum reserve, despite record high crude prices and strong oil demand.

The U.S. Interior Department said it awarded contracts to ChevronTexaco Corp. and Royal Dutch/Shell Group's Shell Oil to deliver more than 100,000 barrels of crude a day to the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

The oil will be delivered over a six-month period beginning on Oct. 1 and concluding next March 31.

The Bush administration has been criticized by energy experts and some politicians for taking oil off the market to put in the reserve at times of high fuel prices and strong petroleum demand.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

97. IMHO, the NeoCons are building oil reserves because...

...they're getting prepared for their next big offensive in the Middle East. Rising oil reserves is ALWAYS a big tip-off that military activity is being planned.

Can you say, "Iran", boys and girls?

[54anickel]

99. Could be, or maybe it's just an acceleration of the continual pillaging

of America's wealth while he still has the power to. Perhaps some of his coherts are now calling in their markers, threatening to sing like canaries.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

102. Either way...or both...it doesn't paint a very pretty picture, does it?

[bill]

4. Good morning marketeers

NPR is saying job numbers will be up (200K) thereby proving that the economy is growing just like * says it is. We'll see.....

(edited for poor early morning spelling)



:hangover:

[trogdor]

41. Another month of treading water.

Doubleplusgood.

[ozymandius]

3. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

Big Box Retailers --
Buy Their Merchandise, Sell Their Stocks

As excellently chronicled by Jim Willie last week, big box retailers have practically revolutionized the business of retail in America. After reading Willie’s article, the question on my mind was, “Are these retailers good investments in today’s market?” While their collective business model is successful for dominating smaller retailers and expanding to the apparent point of national saturation, they now all compete against each other in some fashion. While some big box retailers have risen to the top of the “heap,” the premium paid to purchase their stocks are at least fully discounted. In addition, leader or not, big box retailers are all subject to the occasional strategic slip-up which tends to harshly punish their stocks. It’s difficult to steer a large ship! Finally, over the last 2 years or so, business conditions were as good as they could be, as the government has given out “free money” in the form of tax givebacks, and artificially low interest rates. Big box retailers immediately realized these benefits, while Wall Street rewarded this unsustainable good fortune with a sharp and impressive rally. But with this entire stimulus wearing off, debt starting to rear its inevitable effects on American consumers, and inflationary monetary policies resulting in inflation, their stock charts are looking tired. With insiders light on ownership and heavy on recent selling, now is the time to sell their stocks. Tonight, I will examine some key statistics and technical charts to support this position.

Valuations Expensive, Insiders Bailing Out = Poor Investment at These Prices

The table below summarizes valuation, dividends, and insider ownership of selected big box retailers. Except for two big box retailers that have faltered over the last few years (TOY, and TWTR), the trailing P/E’s range from a low of 14, to a high of 29. These P/E’s should be viewed in the context of conditions over the last year that was “as good as it gets”. With relatively high multiples of artificially good and unsustainable business conditions, these companies are expensive. Even compared to US homebuilders that still trade at single-digit P/E’s during optimal economic conditions, big box retailers are expensive. The high valuations are also apparent by the insignificant dividend payouts. There is only one company of the big box retailers listed below that pays a dividend that is over 1%. While these companies are relatively young, it is suspect that most of them have insider interests that are insignificant. Consider that only Best Buy and Wal-Mart have a significant amount of insider ownership on a percentage basis. Finally, with the exception of Wal-Mart, the amount of insider selling over the last 6-months has been overwhelming the negligible amount of insider buying as indicated in the chart below. Excluding items, (Wal-Mart), there were 67 shares of stock sold for every share purchased.

-cut-

Today’s Market

Previously, I featured the Nasdaq index in my intermediate term technical analysis, and discussed the QQQ index-traded shares, representing the underlying Nasdaq 100 as potentially “pulling up” the full Nasdaq index. The Nasdaq 100 has held up better than the full Nasdaq over the last couple of months. Whereas, the neckline of a multiple head-and-shoulders (HAS) pattern was broken downside for the full Nasdaq index several days ago, until today, the Nasdaq 100 index neckline has not been broken. That situation has changed today, as indicated in the chart below:

-cut-

Getting back to retailers below is a 2-Year chart of the retail index. Retail was slammed across the board. Luxury retailers have done well, and the lower and middle-class retailers have generally had poor same store sales. If the stock market swoons, so too will the luxury retailer stocks along with the “wealth effect” of the American consumer. This is being discussed on Kudlow and Kramer as I prepare this. And to boot, they are suggesting that the pulling of the Google IPO, may signal “final market capitulation.” In my humble opinion, we are far, (in both time and magnitude) before final stock market capitulation occurs. For example, consider that Cisco now sells for a P/E of 32, with a market capitalization of $140 billion, and they have never in their history, paid a dividend. Did I mention that this valuation does not include stock options? This is more the stuff of bubble tops, than stock market bottom capitulation.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

What's with the idea of retail being negatively impacted by the Reagan funeral? That was two months ago.

[ozymandius]

5. At 3:45 yesterday afternoon, something thunked the back of my head.

And I was nowhere near a computer. It must've been my psychic connection to this thread and the screaming that ensued from investors as they watched market averages plummet.

Is everyone okay?

[54anickel]

9. Hi Ozy, I was hoping you'd be "in tune" and be able to check back

on the thread. I'm okay, no cuts or bruises - too chicken to log in and check my measly little portfolio. Took quite awhile to mop up the bloody mess though. :hi:

[UpInArms]

7. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.72 Change +0.08 (+0.09%)

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=5888766

Dollar Slips Vs. Europeans, Gains Vs. Yen

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar weakened a bit against major European currencies on Thursday but strengthened against the yen, which was hit by a selloff due to the likely effect of surging crude prices on oil import-dependent Japan.

Traders sold the yen across the board, particularly against the euro, aware that high oil prices could crimp economic growth in Japan, which imports nearly all its energy.

The euro's strength against the yen helped support it and other European units against the dollar, which earlier got a brief boost from reasonably encouraging U.S. jobs data.

"Everyone's looking at oil, ... yen traders more than anyone else," said Ronald Simpson, managing director of global currency analysis at Action Economics. "You need a brace and a crash helmet to trade that stuff," he said, referring to oil.

Front-month crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled nearly 4 percent higher at $44.41 a barrel on renewed concerns over Russian oil giant Yukos and its ability to continue exporting.

...more...

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=5880575

Dollar Has Soft Bias, Market Awaits Data

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar eased a touch on Thursday but stayed within recent ranges with investors reluctant to make big bets ahead of key jobs data on Friday that could decide the pace of future Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Investors were especially cautious after Wednesday's Institute of Supply Management non- manufacturing survey showed a weak employment reading, even though the report painted a fairly robust picture of the service sector as a whole.

In Europe, the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, but the European Central Bank, which also meets, is unlikely to shift its stance.

The main focus, however, is the strength of the U.S. labor market after some weak employment components in manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys in the past week.

"We have the non-farm payrolls tomorrow and people have got a bit nervous about employment so we have seen the euro jumping up from the lows," said Marios Maratheftis, currency strategist at Standard Chartered in London.

...more...

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH95706_2004-08-06_11-43-55_N2W350129

UPDATE 4-Oil scales new highs on YUKOS, U.S. refinery fire

LONDON, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Oil prices hit record highs on Friday, climbing close to $45, after a renewed threat to Russian oil major <YUKO.RTS> <YUKO.RTS> and a big refinery fire in the United States added to the strain on world supplies.

In early trade, U.S. light crude <CLc1> struck $44.77 a barrel, the highest level in the 21-year history of crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It later eased slightly on mild profit-taking to trade 11 cents lower at $44.30.

London's Brent crude <LCOc1> hit $41.50 a barrel, a record for the contract since it started trading in 1988 on the International Petroleum Exchange. Brent had eased to $41.00, down 12 cents, by midday.

"Fifty, sixty dollars a barrel is thinkable for the first time since 1979 ... But so much has changed between then and now that prices might have to go even higher before demand growth slows down," said Deborah White, senior economist at SG Commodities in Paris.

<snip>

A fire on Thursday shut a gasoline-producing unit at BP Plc's <BP.L> 470,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) refinery in Texas, the third-biggest plant in the United States. The flash fire was quickly extinguished, but it was unclear how long the unit would be shut.

...more...

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1091787326-9e32d306-17986

OECD June composite leading indicator 103.8 vs 103.7 in May

PARIS (AFX) - The OECD said its composite leading indicator rose slightly to 103.8 in June from 103.7 in May

The CLI summarises information contained in a number of key short-term indicators known to be linked to GDP and provides early signals of turning points between expansions and slowdowns in economic activity

The OECD said the rise in the indicator points to continued economic expansion in the OECD area as a whole but to a mixed outlook for the major countries

"June data signal weakening performance in the US, the UK and Italy whilst improved performance is more evident for Canada and France," it said

For the US, the CLI eased to 103.1 from 103.2 and its six-month rate of change fell sharply for the sixth month in succession after nine consecutive months of strong increases. The six-month rate of change in the CLI is less volatile than the monthly figures and is thought to provide clearer and earlier signals for turning points in GDP growth

...more...

Reports due for today:

Aug 06 8:30 AM
Average Workweek Jul
report -
briefing.com anticipates 33.7
market anticipates 33.8
last report 33.6
revised from -

Aug 06 8:30 AM
Hourly Earnings Jul
report -
briefing.com anticipates 0.3.%
market anticipates 0.3%
last report 0.1%
revised from -

Aug 06 8:30 AM
Nonfarm Payrolls Jul
report -
briefing.com anticipates 215K
market anticipates 243K
last report 112K
revised from -

Aug 06 8:30 AM
Unemployment Rate Jul
report -
briefing.com anticipates 5.6%
market anticipates 5.6%
last report 5.6%
revised from -

Aug 06 3:00 PM
Consumer Credit Jun
report -
briefing.com anticipates $10.0B
market anticipates $4.0B
last report $8.2B
revised from -

Well, yesterday's numbers certainly were surprisingly awful. Thanks for the great thread reading material!

Guess we'll see what today brings.

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

31. dollar charts have delay - here is blurb

one-liner

8:34am 08/06/04

DOLLAR -1.1% VS YEN, AT 110.69; -1.4% VS EURO, $1.2209

[UpInArms]

35. filling in the blanks on the reports

Aug 06 8:30 AM
Average Workweek Jul
reported 33.7
briefing.com anticipated 33.7
market anticipated 33.8
last report 33.6
no revision

Aug 06 8:30 AM
Hourly Earnings Jul
reported 0.3%
briefing.com anticipated 0.3.%
market anticipated 0.3%
last report 0.1%
no revision

Aug 06 8:30 AM
Nonfarm Payrolls Jul
reported 32K
briefing.com anticipated 215K
market anticipated 243K
last report 78K
revised from 112K

Aug 06 8:30 AM
Unemployment Rate Jul
reported 5.5%
briefing.com anticipated 5.6%
market anticipated 5.6%
last report 5.6%
no revision

[ozymandius]

10. Good morning all.

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

My boy and I are going to school. I'll return around the market open.

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

11. Frontier Oil's 2Q Profit Sharply Higher

http://www.forbes.com/work/feeds/ap/2004/08/05/ap1492054.html

Frontier Oil Corp. on Thursday said second-quarter profit soared due to strong gasoline and diesel crack spreads and wide crude oil differentials.

Quarterly earnings were $49.5 million, or $1.81 a share, substantially improved from a loss of $992,000, or 4 cents a share, reported last year. Results include an after-tax inventory gain of about $5.7 million, or 21 cents a share, in the latest quarter, compared to a loss of $3.5 million, or 14 cents a share, for the same period of 2003. Excluding the gain in the most recent period, the company would have beat consensus estimates from a survey of analysts by Thomson First Call for earnings of $1.56 a share.

Rvenue rose 23 percent to $1.27 billion from $1.03 billion last year.

Gasoline crack spreads averaged $14.23 per barrel, nearly double the $7.24 per barrel of a year ago. The diesel crack spread averaged $7.39 per barrel in the second quarter, nearly twice the $3.91 per barrel in the second quarter of 2003. The WTI/WTS crude oil differential averaged $3.29 per barrel, well above the $2.52 per barrel average since Frontier acquired the El Dorado Refinery in November 1999. Similarly, the light/ heavy crude oil differential averaged $8.81 per barrel for the latest second quarter, well above the five-year average of $5.21 per barrel. Total crude charge for the second quarter averaged approximately 158,400 barrels per day compared to 156,200 barrels per day last year.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. 08/04 – WTO Agreement Could be Framework for Disaster

http://www.agweb.com/news_show_news_article.asp?nodate=Y&file=AgNewsArticle_2004851656_2211&articleid=110626&newscat=TT

An agreement is generally an arrangement between two parties in which both sides acquire something. However, that isn't the case with the World Trade Organization framework agreement approved July 31. Like the proverbial "pig in a poke," U.S. farmers are left holding the bag once again.

With this agreement, the administration has traded away the interests of U.S. farmers and ranchers in the interests of agribusiness, non-agricultural sectors and developing countries like Brazil and China. Although the agreement allows the multilateral trade negotiations to enter the next phase, the implications for U.S. agricultural producers are troubling.

This seems to be the administration's way of accomplishing through the WTO what they could not achieve in Congress-the elimination of U.S. farm programs. Once again U.S. farmers are asked to sacrifice on the altar of free trade without getting anything in return.

Our negotiators agreed to cut domestic economic safety net programs substantially, without identifying a plan to improve economic returns to producers or details about potential changes in market access. Improved market access through reduced tariffs and increased quotas, even if they occur, do not necessarily mean expanded U.S. exports. In theory, market access improved under the Uruguay Round. However, U.S. agricultural exports declined while U.S. imports increased, reducing our agricultural trade balance.

In a globally competitive market, even if improved market access and expanded trade occurs, our competitors may gain export sales while the United States does not because of issues ignored in the WTO, such as exchange rates, currency manipulation, labor and environmental standards and the market power of multinational traders.

...more...

Did they say "currency manipulation"? hmmmm....

[ClintonTyree]

13. OUCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Non-farm payroll's up 32,000!! Black Friday here we come!!

[Pale Blue Dot]

15. I just read on Reuters that it was expected to be 200000 -250000

Ouch indeed. :scared:

[54anickel]

27. May as well delay the market opening for a cooling off period, that's

what is suppose to kick into gear anyway. Wow, we saw articles and blather that hinted to lower expectations but this is way out of the range!

[ClintonTyree]

18. They expected................

200,000 or higher. Things not looking too good for BushCo or investors. This economy is in a shambles, and they keep talking it up like we're at full employment.

[phillybri]

19. This thing will be down at least 150 by the end of the day...

The job-loss recovery continues...:grr:

[Maeve]

20. Details--and May & June revised down, too

July Job growth slows to 32,000
Unemployment rate dips to 5.5%

By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 8:31 AM ET Aug. 6, 2004

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -The U.S. economy added 32,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in July as hiring slowed for the fourth straight month, the Labor Department reported Friday.
It was the slowest job growth of the year.

Economists were expecting much stronger payroll growth of about 235,000 in July, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch.

Payroll growth in May and June was revised lower by a cumulative 61,000, showing the job market is weaker than commonly thought. June was revised to 78,000 from 112,000 while May was revised down to 208,000 from 235,000
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA55488F8%2D7A48%2D40F3%2D9673%2D8C63CD9F863B%7D&siteid=mktw

Gotta get set up for the festival today, but wanted to stop in for the big report. Painful!

[Zynx]

21. I get sick of their statistical games. Jobs barely up, but unemployment do

wn? That makes no sense.

[UpInArms]

26. the unemployed are only counted if they are

receiving benefit checks - as soon as those stop, those people no longer exist.

Crappy way of accounting - there are 66.6 million unemployed in the US.

[Zynx]

30. I read that by German standards, our unemployment rate is about 8%.

[Frodo]

57. That's interesting. By German standards, the GERMAN rate is around 11%

And the German calculation is actually a little more lenient than the US definition.

[Frodo]

59. You got that right. "Ouch" is the right word to use.

And a REAL divergence on the household numbers?

This isn't just "people dropping out of the job market", soemthing's weird between the two surveys.

[ozymandius]

77. Where are there any other factors that might offer confirmation

of one or the other? Like a poll report - polls can often confirm each other when crunching hard data. Is there an equivalent for these figures?

[Frodo]

105. Actually... one of them IS a poll

Just a really BIG one.

But the two figures sure seemed to move in different directions this month. Not something I would assume is attributable to the varied weaknesses in methodology.

[UpInArms]

14. An expensive prescription

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?file=532683.html

WASHINGTON The drug giant Bristol-Myers Squibb agreed to pay $150 million to settle U.S. regulators’ charges that it manipulated its inventory to inflate earnings and meet Wall Street targets, the Securities and Exchange Commission announced Wednesday.

Bristol-Myers agreed to pay a $100 million civil fine and an additional $50 million, both of which will go into a fund for shareholders, who recently won $300 million from the company in a class-action lawsuit. Bristol-Myers neither admitted nor denied wrongdoing in the settlement but did agree to abide by a permanent injunction against future violations.

It was one of the largest SEC penalties in recent years for accounting violations against a company that continues to operate. The $150 million Bristol-Myers is paying dwarfs the $10 million fine levied on Xerox in 2002, which was the largest ever at the time, to resolve allegations of accounting fraud.

Bristol-Myers, which is based in New York, faces a related criminal investigation by the U.S. Justice Department.

The company’s largest division, the U.S. Medicines Group, is headquartered in New Jersey. The SEC sued Bristol-Myers in U.S. District Court in Newark, New Jersey, alleging that the company sold excessive quantities of drugs to wholesalers and improperly booked revenue from $1.5 billion of those sales to its two biggest wholesalers.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. Here are the 8:30 EST report numbers

8:29am 08/06/04

U.S. JULY NONFARM PAYROLLS 32,000 VS. 235,000 EXPECTED

8:29am 08/06/04

U.S. JULY AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS 0.3%

8:30am 08/06/04

U.S. JULY AVERAGE WORKWEEK UP TO 33.7 HOURS

8:30am 08/06/04

U.S. JULY AVERAGE WORKWEEK UP TO 33.7 HOURS

8:30am 08/06/04

U.S. JUNE PAYROLLS REVISED DOWN TO 78K VS. 112K

8:30am 08/06/04

U.S. JULY MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS UP 10,000

8:30am 08/06/04

U.S. JULY HOUSEHOLD SURVEY: 629,000 MORE HAVE JOBS

[UpInArms]

22. U.S. July nonfarm payrolls up 32,000

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38205.3543981481-816822991&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -The U.S. economy added 32,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in July as hiring slowed for the fourth straight month, the Labor Department reported Friday. It was the slowest job growth of the year. Economists were expecting much stronger payroll growth of about 235,000 in July. Payroll growth in May and June was revised lower by a cumulative 61,000. Meanwhile, a separate survey of households showed the unemployment rate fell to 5.5 percent from 5.6 percent as 629,000 more adults were working. In July, hiring slowed across most sectors. Goods-producing industries added 18,000 including 10,000 in manufacturing. Services-producing industries added 14,000 jobs, the lowest since August 2003.

I do believe life in the pits will become tenuous today.

[fishnfla]

89. what were the bond traders chanting???

there was a report in gd they were chanting anti-bush slogans

[54anickel]

17. Job Picture Looks Good Now, but Recession Left Fears That Endure

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/06/business/06norris.html

WHEN the July employment numbers are released today, the Bush administration will hail them as proof that the economy is doing well, and it will have a point. But despite rapid job growth this year, many Americans continue to believe there is a job crisis.

Why is that? Some blame an overly negative press, but the real answer may be found by delving into the statistics. New numbers from the Labor Department show that the job downturn of 2001 and 2002 was surprisingly damaging to experienced workers, particularly older ones.

During that downturn, the unemployment rate never rose above 6.3 percent, a figure that would have been considered excellent in previous downturns. The latest number, for June, is 5.6 percent. In the late 1990's, American employers had to hire almost anyone who wanted work. There were reports of employers hiring consultants to help them find ex-convicts to take jobs. It stood to reason that when the bust came, it would be a case of last-hired, first-fired. Reliable long-term workers would be safe.

As it happened, many newly hired workers did suffer. But they were not alone. The Labor Department periodically surveys what it calls "long-tenured displaced workers," people who lost jobs they had held for at least three years, and lost them not because they were fired for cause but for other reasons like a plant closing or the elimination of a position. In a dynamic economy, of course, some such workers are always losing their jobs. In the late 1990's, there were relatively few of them and most found new jobs quickly.

more... :eyes:

[Zynx]

23. Not with these jobs numbers.

Only 32,000 jobs created? Ouch.

[sendero]

28. Based on yesterday's stock market performance...

... I was pretty sure the numbers would suck. Oil is up, but not that much. This was the usual "insider effect" you see all the time a day before really good/bad numbers are coming out.

Look out below :) :(

[UpInArms]

33. Dow tracker slides on weak July jobs data

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38205.360162037-816823551&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Stocks took a dive early Friday after the release of much weaker-than-expected jobs growth in July. The "Diamonds" (DIA) , a tracking stock for the Dow industrials, were last down 57 cents at $99.15 in pre-open trading, vs. a pre-data price of about $100.02. The U.S. Labor Department said non- farm payrolls increased by 32,000 in July, vs. expectations of an increase of about 235,000. The June figure was revised to down to 78,000 from 112,000. July unemployment dipped to 5.5 percent from 5.6 percent. The S&P 500 Index tracker (SPY) was 64 cents lower at $107.76, vs. pre-data $108.72, and the Nasdaq 100 tracker (QQQ) was shedding 23 cents to $33.37, vs. pre-data $33.74.

sounds like falling rocks to me

[ClintonTyree]

24. The numbers.................

blow this article right out of the water. There is NO WAY the Bush administration can spin this as positive, this is BAD,BAD news for Bush and the country.

[Maeve]

25. "Why is that?" Because the job recovery ISN'T strong!!

:grr:

[Media_Lies_Daily]

29. Evidently, this article was written yesterday...or possibley last week....

...doesn't cast the author in a very good light, does it?

[54anickel]

32. Nope. I posted it because I thought it was a pretty good piece of

propoganda, before I saw the numbers.
Gets on your side emotionally but tosses Shrubs numbers at you the whole time. Sort of like that Dr. telling you it's all in you head.
At least that was my gut reaction to the piece. Hence the eyeroll at the end.

[54anickel]

39. Debate shifts to quality of jobs

Kerry says new workers make less, but do the numbers jibe?

Now that the economy is creating jobs at a healthy clip, a fierce debate is raging over the quality of those new jobs.

On Friday, all eyes will be on the monthly employment report, which is expected to show that about 220,000 jobs were created in July, an improvement over the relatively anemic 112,000 created in June. Several analysts believe the total could be higher, up to 300,000, especially after Thursday’s report of a drop in new claims for unemployment benefits. .....

snip>

Concerns about job quality have become a political football, embraced by Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry and dismissed by President Bush and his allies. They point to sharply rising overall wages and after-tax income, as well as the steadily growing number of jobs, which is crucial.

Barring a disastrous employment report, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by another quarter-point next week when policy-makers meet. The Fed raised rates for the first time in four years June 30, saying the economy is growing rapidly enough that it no longer requires such unusually low interest rates to stimulate it.

[Maeve]

42. I think we have a "disastrous employment report" on our hands

And the economy is NOT creating jobs at a "healthy clip"--more like an anemic plop...

[54anickel]

34. AM Market Call page is finally starting to update futures slowly

at 8:33
S&P -8.00
Nasdaq -13.50

DOW hasn't been updated since 7:33 +27.00 :shrug:

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/

[Zynx]

37. The Dow one is hardly ever updated.

[54anickel]

38. Once an hour would be nice? I've never really noticed it not updating

before - but I tend to miss a lot of things early in the morning. Thanks.

[UpInArms]

40. here's a link for Dow futures

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CBOT_DJU4

Last trade 9845 Change -88 (-0.89%)

Settle 9933 Settle Time 16:14

Open 9960 Previous Close 9933

High 9965 Low 9840

Volume 8,710 Open Int. 41586

[54anickel]

46. Ugh. n/t

[Torgo Johnson]

36. Woah, take a look at the futures charts.

Now that's what I call a steep drop.

[JNelson6563]

43. I'm sorry I just have to laugh

Yesterday after market close, even a bit before too, Maria Bartaroma was interviewing people who were all quite certain there'd be 200,000+ jobs created. Oh yeah, you can practically take that to the bank! June was just a blip.

I remember thinking that I would remember all these fools and their sunny forecasts this morning if the numbers were crap as I half expected they would be.

BWWWWWWAAAAAAAAAAAAHAAAAAAAHAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!! Stupid supply-siders. Trickle-down/tinkle-on economics doesn't work. Deficits matter and the masses need work. Somebody get these fools a gift certificate to the clue store.

Futures are dismal. Batton down the hatches.

Julie

[UpInArms]

44. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

08:58 ET
Market is Closed

S&P futures vs fair value: -12.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.0. Futuures indications continue to spiral lower as traders flee stocks off the job data... Treasuries, however, have enjoyed a buying frenzy - the 10-year note up 58 ticks, bringing its yield to 4.17%... International market have also been hit off the news - Germany's DAX Index now down 2.5%.

08:33 ET
Market is Closed

S&P futures vs fair value: -9.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.5. Futures trade plunges in response to the much weaker than expected July nonfarms payroll figure (32K versus the consensus of 243K -- the worst reading in over 6 months).... To compound the weak number, June payrolls was revised 34K lower to 78K... Cash market now set for a much lower open.

08:00 ET
Market is Closed

S&P futures vs fair value: +0.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.2. Futures trade pointing to a slightly higher open in what is largely a rebound effort off yesterday's sweeping 1.6-1.8% losses... Expect the tone of today's trade to be set at 8:30 ET, when the July employment report comes out... The key number to watch is nonfarm payrolls (consensus of +243K)... Briefing.com believes anything over +175K would probably alleviate serious concerns about a slowdown in the economy.

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Thursday's sharp decline, which led to a breakout below July's low crossing at 1360. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near- term. If the decline continues, a test of weekly support crossing at 1346 is possible later this month. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 2.50 pt. at 1357.00 as of 6:47 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Thursday's loss, which led to a breakout below May's low crossing at 1097.50. Stochastics and the RSI turned bearish with Thursday's decline signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this summer's decline, a test of weekly support crossing at 1070.50 is the next downside target. The September S&P 500 Index was up 3.00 pts. at 1081.50 as of 6:49 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

dollar numbers:

Last trade 88.53 Change -1.11 (-1.24%)

[54anickel]

45. Ewww, technicals were bearish BEFORE the numbers. PPT is gonna

be a busy group today! But hey, look at it this way, Greenspin will get to hold off on that rate increase next week, don't want to be hurting that carry trade at such a time now do we?

[UpInArms]

47. if Meanspin doesn't raise rates, the dollar

will plummet.

It's going to get ugly.

[54anickel]

50. Yep, but if he does, he'll have to contend with the mobs from the

stock and bond markets for raising rates in a time that is starting to look like a contraction more than expansion. Which will be the sacrificial lamb?

It will also be interesting to watch what goes on in the oil speculation crowd now that we are all distracted by jobs and rates.

[bain_sidhe]

68. but which is more important?

Propping up the dollar (and the stock market) or not popping the mortgage bubble? Consumer debt (especially those spending their home equity on fast women and loose cars) is the only thing keeping this "recovery" from discovering it's inner depression.

[UpInArms]

71. well, now that's a whole other subject

and a clue might be had at 3:00 EST when the consumer spending (credit) report comes out.

there's a huge variance in the briefing.com anticipated number of $10 Billion and the market anticipated number of $4 Billion.

How much gasoline was put on charge cards :shrug:

[54anickel]

76. There lies the rub. Rock/hardplace. How long can the juggling joker

keep all the balls in the air?

[KoKo]

124. ROFL! "spending home-equity on fast women and loose cars..."

You said it. Although some are spending home equity to pay for living costs while they wait for those magic jobs to appear, the rest are partying hearty thinking there's no end to the euphoria.

[54anickel]

48. Employment Growth Surprisingly Weak (Couple of interesting quotes)

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040806/economy_jobs_3.html

snip>

The Labor Department also cut its tally of job growth for May and June by a combined 61,000.

The unemployment rate, however, fell to 5.5 percent from 5.6 percent in June as a separate government survey of households showed robust employment growth. The department cautioned that the household survey was a less reliable barometer of month-to-month changes in employment than its larger survey of businesses.

The Bush administration was likely to look on the bright side as the report showed 1.5 million jobs have been created in 11 straight months of hiring gains. However, Democratic White House hopeful John Kerry could accurately claim that the economy is still down 1.1 million jobs since Bush took office, despite the recent gains.

snip>

The report will also raise questions about how successfully the economy shook off a soft patch in June and may lead financial market participants to reassess the pace of rate rises expected over the coming months from the Federal Reserve.

[54anickel]

64. Another quote - Jobs Growth Falls Apart

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/10176918.html

snip>

Friday's number has widespread implications for asset markets, which have spent most of 2004 trying to predict the pace of interest rate tightening by the Federal Reserve. Speculation is already afoot that the FOMC will leave rates alone when it meets Tuesday, with governors forced to consider the possibility that the current cycle of employment growth has peaked.

The report will also affect perceptions about the re-electability of President Bush, whose campaign had benefited from the robust employment gains in the first half of the year. Stocks have generally reacted negatively to anything suggesting Bush is vulnerable, steadily falling over the last month during the Democratic National Convention and concerns sown by the rising price of oil.


:shrug: Weren't they rising? I distinctly remember posting "The Clinton Factor" and the Kerry rally.

[Junkdrawer]

55. Sharp rises followed by slow declines...

Nothing suspicious here. Move along.

[UpInArms]

49. Markets are open and deeply red one minute in

Dow 9,922.24 -40.79 (-0.41%)
Nasdaq 1,802.47 -19.16 (-1.05%)
S&P 500 1,077.38 -3.32 (-0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 4.186% -0.214

[UpInArms]

51. 9:40 numbers

Dow 9,888.11 -74.92 (-0.75%)
Nasdaq 1,798.37 -23.26 (-1.28%)
S&P 500 1,072.25 -8.45 (-0.78%)
10-Yr Bond 4.222% -0.178

[54anickel]

52. Buck is trying to level off

Last trade 88.44 Change -1.20 (-1.34%)

Open 89.64 Previous Close 89.64

High 89.78 Low 88.29

[54anickel]

53. Working hard to keep gold under 400

Last trade 399.2 Change +7.4 (+1.89%)

Open 391.8 Previous Close 391.8

High 401.2 Low 390.7

Bid 399.2 Ask 400

[54anickel]

54. Charts moving up in unison again - mirror images up there.

[UpInArms]

56. 9:53 EST numbers and blather

Dow 9,891.43 -71.60 (-0.72%)
Nasdaq 1,802.10 -19.53 (-1.07%)
S&P 500 1,073.73 -6.97 (-0.64%)
10-Yr Bond 4.216% -0.184

9:40AM: Sellers pick up right where they left off last session, sending the major indices freefalling 0.7-1.3% in the opening action... A July employment report that came in under market expectations has prompted the sell-off as it has raised questions about the pace of the labor market's recovery... Nonfarm payrolls added just 32K jobs in July (consensus of 243K), and June and May were both downwardly revised by 34K and 27K, respectively... The much slower pace of job growth has lowered the probability (according to the fed funds futures) of a 25 basis point tightening in August and September...

Right now, there is an 89% likelihood of an interest rate hike (down from 100%) in August and an approximately 10% chance in September... This can help explain the huge rally in the treasury market - which brings the yield on the 10-year note (4.20%) to its lowest levels since mid-April...

and here was a lovely news line at CBSMarketwatch:

9:45am 08/06/04

MANKIW: U.S. ECONOMY IS HEADING IN RIGHT DIRECTION

[bill]

58. Ouch

30 min in -
DOW 9,873.51 -89.52 (-0.90%)
NASDAQ 1,798.42 -23.21 (-1.27%)
S&P 1,072.41 -8.29 (-0.77)

[Robbien]

61. Within the space of 60 seconds the dow dropped 10 points

Turned on CNBC when the dow was down 92 points and just one minute later it was at a big negative l02.

Kinda made the stomach a bit queasy.

[UpInArms]

62. 10:06 EST numbers and blather

Dow 9,858.46 -104.57 (-1.05%)
Nasdaq 1,794.50 -27.13 (-1.49%)
S&P 500 1,069.84 -10.86 (-1.00%)
10-Yr Bond 4.209% -0.191

10:00AM: The market hangs in around its opening lows, unable to move meaningfully higher but also not falling significantly lower... While this morning's employment report has been unquestionably bad, traders have taken consolation in the fact that expectations for a Fed tightening (especially in the fall) have come down... Yesterday's vast pullback - the second largest percentage decline of the year - has also arguably accounted for a good deal of this morning's news... That being said, it will be difficult to stage any kind of substantial rally in the face of the nonfarm payrolls number...

The best the bulls can hope for - weighing the various implications - is for a moderate retreat as opposed to a huge dive lower...NYSE Adv/Dec 946/1683, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 484/1944

[54anickel]

60. 10:04 DOW over 100 pts down

Dow 9,853.15 -109.88 (-1.10%)
Nasdaq 1,793.97 -27.66 (-1.52%)
S&P 500 1,069.20 -11.50 (-1.06%)
10-yr Bond 4.206% -0.194
30-yr Bond 5.021% -0.129
NYSE Volume 215,253,000
Nasdaq Volume 305,503,000

[UpInArms]

63. 10:15 EST and it's time to rally!

Dow 9,886.99 -76.04 (-0.76%)
Nasdaq 1,798.71 -22.92 (-1.26%)
S&P 500 1,071.43 -9.27 (-0.86%)
10-Yr Bond 4.206% -0.194

dollar

Last trade 88.47 Change -1.17 (-1.31%)

Last tick: 2004-08-06 09:44:41 ET
30-min delayed quote

[54anickel]

65. Big "B" little "argain"!!! Buy, buy, buy!

[JNelson6563]

67. 10:30 and the PPT makes headway

Dow 9,896.00 -67.03 (-0.67%)
Nasdaq 1,803.46 -18.17 (-1.00%)
S&P 500 1,073.35 -7.35 (-0.68%)
10-Yr Bond 4.221% -0.179


17 basis point drop in the 10 yr??? Holy cannolli! This whispers to me that money which mysteriously vanished during this rough week was sitting on the side-lines till today's numbers. Their decison's made, Treasuries is the way to go apparently.

Anybody catch Jr. failing miserably with a conference of Journalists of Color? Hahahahaha!! It was great!! The aucience applauded the questions which bewildered the idiot usurper.

:toast:

Julie

[UpInArms]

70. 10: 30 blather and a bonus statement

10:30AM: Stocks turn lower in the past half hour and set new session lows, but quickly return back to their earlier standings... Still, the tone of trading is undeniably negative, with decliners outpacing advancers (by a 4-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq) and down volume leading up volume (by a 4-to-1 margin at the NYSE and nearly 8-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq)... As such, the Composite is showing much larger losses (-1.2%) as compared to the Dow and S&P 500 (both -0.8%)... Selective buying in interest-rate sensitive issues like utility, gold, and regional banking have halted the broader market's slide...

As for the Nasdaq, it is weighed down by pronounced weakness in computer hardware, semiconductor, disk drive, biotech, and internet...SOX -1.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 1156/1842, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 442/2187

and here's your bonus:

10:07am 08/06/04 BUSH: PAYROLL TAX CAN'T BE CUT WITHOUT HURTING SENIORS

[54anickel]

73. Huh?

[ozymandius]

81. I think this may be referring to SS and Medicare.

Lowering the payroll tax will decrease payments to these social programs. Even though surpluses generated by these programs are used to offset the national debt - any decline in income may translate into shortfall of disbursements to our seniors.

[UpInArms]

82. doesn't that fly in the face of his desire to

privatize social security?

[ozymandius]

88. It would seem to say so.

But then the markets are not as healthy as they were when this idea was first proposed.

I would also chalk this up to election year rhetoric in which he will say anything, even crude or wholly untrue, to get elected. A pandering inference also comes into play here: Lowering the payroll tax hurts seniors. Democrats want to lower the payroll tax. Therefore, Democrats want seniors to suffer.

This is a rhetorical gambit in which Republicans are counting on the public's laziness to nuance that statement.

[54anickel]

72. Bush at the UNITY convention? No I missed that! What happened?

Someone ask him about that Tucson incident with the AZ Star photographer? When someone from the Cheney rally wanted to know the person's race before giving clearance. Or did the idiot say something else to make a total ass of himself?

[ozymandius]

75. I missed that one.

Please enlighten me, Julie. It sounds absolutely delicious.

[UpInArms]

79. here's a forum link

to it:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2167544

[ozymandius]

84. I sometimes miss TV.

These are truly wondrous times. And I could use a good laugh.

[54anickel]

66. Hedge funds show first loss in two years

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/b960e69a-e70c-11d8-aff8-00000e2511c8.html

snip>

Hedge funds, as measured by the Hedge Fund Research Composite index, showed their first quarterly loss in two years in the three months to June 30. The index, which measures 19 strategies worldwide, fell by 1 per cent.

Net investment fell sharply to $7.5bn, also the lowest level in two years. Inflows have averaged more than $20bn a quarter for the past year.

HFR is one of several hedge fund databases competing for business in the rapidly growing sector. All have slightly different data and methodologies, but tell the same story: investors have been pouring money into hedge funds just as the asset class has begun showing historically low returns.

snip>

Individuals as diverse as Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, investor Warren Buffett and bond manager Bill Gross have recently warned that hedge funds cannot sustain their historically high levels of returns.

Yet, until the latest quarter, investors have been pouring record amounts of money into the asset class, and there has been a steady stream of defections from Wall Street and the money management industry into the sector. Carl Icahn, the buy-out investor, has become the latest big name to announce he is setting up a hedge fund.

more...

[54anickel]

69. Upscale Mortgages Used For 'Underserved' Goals

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A43942-2004Aug5.html

The $930,000 Tudor house Jeffrey and Lisa Stegman bought on nearly two acres in Cincinnati in 2001 probably isn't what lawmakers had in mind when they ordered government-sponsored housing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help disadvantaged home buyers.

But Freddie Mac, according to a rival financial services industry group, eventually bought the Stegmans' $275,000 mortgage. And because their house was located within a census tract that met the Department of Housing and Urban Development definition of an "underserved area," and because they put down $655,000 cash and thus didn't need a jumbo mortgage, their loan qualified for credit toward the companies' affordable housing goals.

snip>

The government has conferred tax exemptions and other advantages on Freddie and Fannie so they will provide a steady flow of funds to mortgage lenders. Government sponsorship has saved the companies billions, chiefly by helping them borrow money more cheaply, the Congressional Budget Office has said. In the early 1990s, lawmakers demanded that the companies use their advantages to meet specific affordable housing quotas as well.

HUD is now reexamining the mechanics of the system, proposing to raise its goals for Fannie and Freddie. The companies are strongly opposing the proposed new goals. During a comment period that closed recently, they argued that the department was making unrealistic demands that could force them to curtail funding for borrowers who don't count toward the goals.

snip>

In their advertising, Fannie and Freddie emphasize that they help people buy houses. "Our public mission, and our defining goal, is to help more families achieve the American Dream of homeownership," Fannie Mae says on its Web site. "No company in America is more committed to expanding minority homeownership," the company says.

more...

[54anickel]

74. Suit Accuses Halliburton of Fraud in Accounting

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/06/business/06halliburton.html

Four former finance employees at the Halliburton Company contend that a high-level and systemic accounting fraud occurred at the company from 1998 to 2001, according to a new filing in a class-action lawsuit on behalf of investors who bought the company's shares.

The filing accuses the company of accounting improprieties that go far beyond those outlined by the Securities and Exchange Commission in its civil suit against Halliburton, which the company settled on Tuesday, paying $7.5 million.

The charges in the complaint and in the S.E.C.'s action cover the two years when Vice President Dick Cheney was Halliburton's chief executive. But he was not named as a defendant in the new filing nor in the regulatory proceeding. S.E.C. officials said Mr. Cheney provided testimony and willingly cooperated in their inquiry and his lawyer, Terrence O'Donnell, said Mr. Cheney's conduct as chief executive of Halliburton was "proper in all respects." He added that the S.E.C. "investigated this matter very, very thoroughly and did not find any responsibility for nondisclosure at the board level or the C.E.O. level."

According to the new filing, the four former employees, who are not identified in the suit but were managers in financial or accounting positions, say that Kellogg Brown & Root, Halliburton's engineering and construction unit, inflated its financial results by overbilling for services, overstating its accounts receivable due from customers and understating accounts payable owed to vendors. The filing also noted that one former employee in the accounting department said superiors had told her to do "whatever it took" to make projects appear profitable and to meet Wall Street estimates for the company's earnings.

The filing also asserts that executives at Halliburton misled investors in the fall of 2001 about asbestos liabilities faced by the company's subsidiary, Harbison-Walker, which it had acquired in the September 1998 purchase of Dresser Industries. Even though the company had lost a major case in a Texas court and was ordered to pay $130 million to plaintiffs, top Halliburton executives told analysts unaware of the verdict that the news regarding its asbestos obligations was "positive" and that there had been "no adverse developments at all" relating to Harbison-Walker.

more...

[UpInArms]

78. 11:01 EST numbers

Dow 9,862.74 -100.29 (-1.01%)
Nasdaq 1,795.13 -26.50 (-1.45%)
S&P 500 1,069.94 -10.76 (-1.00%)
10-Yr Bond 4.238% -0.162

[54anickel]

80. Japanese Ten-Year Bonds Have Biggest Weekly Gain in Five Months

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=aEVQqy6E091w&refer=japan

Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese 10-year bonds rose, driving yields down by their most in five months, as an increase in crude oil prices to a record helped drive stocks lower.

Benchmark bonds rose for a fourth day on speculation rising petroleum prices will sap consumer spending and exports, slowing economic growth and curbing demand for shares. Rising fuel prices ``could be a negative surprise shock,'' Economy Minister Heizo Takenaka said yesterday in Tokyo.

``The stock market is dropping, and so people are buying bonds,'' said Shigeru Endo, who helps oversee the equivalent of about $2.69 billion of fixed-income assets at Fuji Investment Management Co.

snip>

Bonds also fell on concern a report today will show the U.S. added fewer jobs last month than some expected, threatening demand for Japanese exports. An index of U.S. service-industry employment fell in July, a release Wednesday said, spurring speculation the broader payrolls figure will be less than forecast.

[54anickel]

83. Too Much Cash

http://www.cfo.com/Article?article=14791&f=home_featured

Companies are awash in cash. When will they finally start spending it?


Ronald Fink, CFO Magazine

August 01, 2004


Having fortified their balance sheets with cash over the past two years, one would think that CFOs would have little to worry about from investors.

At the end of 2003, cash and marketable securities constituted roughly 15 percent of the total capital employed by 1,000 companies tracked by REL Consultancy Group. That's up from 11 percent two years earlier. In terms of sales, the proportion grew from 8.5 percent to 11.5 percent. And despite a recent spate of investments and acquisitions, there's little sign that those percentages have come down significantly since then.

But equity investors have other ideas about holding so much cash. They prefer to see the money earning more than it can in bank accounts or short-term instruments. That preference often translates into pressure to buy back shares, pay dividends, or increase existing payouts if managers can't identify promising prospects for acquisitions or new capital investments.

Bondholders, on the other hand, would rather see companies maintain plenty of cash to cover their interest burdens. As for ambitious acquisitions or capital investments, fixed-income investors burned by highly leveraged undertakings during the 1990s bull market are unlikely to sit still for risky alternatives this time around — however much equity investors may clamor for them.

Ideally, all companies would keep little or no cash on hand. Yet that's not always feasible for those that have borrowed heavily, particularly in industries pounded by recession. And while finance theory offers neat formulas for choosing among different uses of cash, those formulas aren't easy to apply when economic prospects are uncertain.

more...

[54anickel]

85. The Bush Bash (linked at 321gold)

http://reese.king-online.com/Reese_20040806/index.php

Books keep pouring off the presses on the subject of why George W. Bush should not be re-elected. I got four in my mailbox recently. Bush might be the biggest boon to book publishing since Harry Potter.

snip>

Like Bovard, I deeply resent a phony conservative — a politician who talks one way and acts exactly the opposite. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney might fairly be called reactionaries, but they are not conservatives in the traditional sense of that word. Being a big spender, a despoiler of the environment, a fearmonger, an ally-alienator, a reckless warmonger and an imperialist does not qualify for the title "conservative." Practicing secrecy and deception and displaying an open contempt for the Constitution and international law are likewise not the characteristics of a conservative.

As Bovard says: "Dying for Bush's lies should not be considered a lofty cause. ... Bush is still expecting to be cheered and revered for his courage in 'making a tough decision.' It is as if the more Americans who die for Bush's folly, the more undeniable his greatness becomes."

snip>

Bush's re-election depends entirely on willful ignorance. He might well ride the sea of ignorance right back into the White House. It would not be the first time Americans have chosen the demagogue over the competent.

But if you intend to vote for Bush, you should at least read the record and not depend on the Republican propaganda machine. The current Republican Party's almost total reliance on character assassination, guilt by association and outright distortions of the truth remind one of what was going on in the 1930s in Europe.

[54anickel]

86. Why Wall Street wants Google to fail

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P89192.asp

The most anticipated initial public offering in years threatens to derail a cherished gravy train, where underpriced shares are handed out to favored investors and grateful CEOs.

By Jim Jubak

Wall Street is rooting for Google’s anticipated initial public stock offering . . . to fail miserably.

Investment bankers fear the "Dutch auction" IPO, if successful, could severely diminish their power and influence, and that has a lot of people on Wall Street worried and more than a little angry. In just about every interview they give, Wall Street sources are actively campaigning to undercut the IPO, warning the public that the stock will be overpriced, and instead of appreciating in value after the offering, will actually retreat.

Investment bankers have a lot to be unhappy about.

more...

[Renew Deal]

91. Laws may have been broken in all this.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=114x10442

[UpInArms]

87. 11:38 EST numbers and blather

Dow 9,875.36 -87.67 (-0.88%)
Nasdaq 1,797.33 -24.30 (-1.33%)
S&P 500 1,071.95 -8.75 (-0.81%)
10-Yr Bond 4.231% -0.169

11:30 ET
Dow -73, Nasdaq -22, S&P -7.55


The market continues to chop around in negative territory, bouncing from its lows to best levels but never making much headway to the upside... Semiconductor continues to act as a large drag on the indices, it pressured by developments out of its own members... Nvidia (NVDA 9.78 -4.78) issued a devastating Q2 (July) report last night in which the graphics semiconductor company missed the consensus bottom-line estimate by $0.12 - coming in at $0.03... Management cited 'several unusual market events,' which has led most analysts to conclude that it suffered from company-specific problems, and not industry-wide... ..SOX -2.0%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1316/1853. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 521/2276.

11:00 ET
Dow -93, Nasdaq -25, S&P -10.15


Little change in the overall trend as the indices remain deep underwater... Within the Dow, only 6 out of the 30 components are finding bids, with most growth-oriented and economically-sensitive issues (AA, F, GM, HPQ, HON, IBM, and INTC) taking the worst hit... Conversely, financial institutions like American Express (AXP 49.62 +0.07) and JP Morgan (JPM 36.31 +0.03) have found buying interest as the fall in interest rates portends well for their businesses... Nevertheless, most industry groups remain sharply lower for the day, with tech, health care, material, energy, and industrial falling the most... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1333/1759. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 557/2181.

dollar

Last trade 88.30 Change -1.34 (-1.49%)

[UpInArms]

90. Market expects fewer rate hikes from Fed

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38205.4740393519-816835294&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. financial markets now expect just three more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this year after Friday's nonfarm payroll report for July. The federal funds futures market at the Chicago Board of Trade is now pricing in a federal funds rate of 2 percent at the end of the year from 1.25 percent currently. Before the jobs report was released, the market had been expecting a 2.25 percent rate in December. In June, before signs of a weakening U.S. economy began to accumulate, the market had been expecting a 2.50 percent rate at the end of the year. The market still expects a rate hike at Tuesday's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committte, pricing in 95 percent odds. The odds of a September rate hike slipped to 48 percent from 76 percent.

Bubbles Meanspin has got a lot of 'splainin' to do.

[Renew Deal]

92. This sounds bad.

"In June, before signs of a weakening U.S. economy began to accumulate"

Considering where we are, it sounds like we are headed for a wreck. How much worse could it get this year? Howard Stern has been saying that he hears that a major crash is coming next year. I don't know if it's going to happen either way.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

100. Double-speak for the idea that Greenie-baby WILL NOT be raising....

...interest rates between now and Election Day.

But look-out AFTER Election Day!!

[UpInArms]

93. other news stories of interest

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=548402

Industry calls for halt to further interest rate rises

Quarter-point increase to 4.75% provokes backlash * Bank sees signs of cooling in housing market

The Bank of England faced a backlash from businesses and estate agents as it ordered its fifth rise in interest rates in 10 months yesterday, just hours after official figures showed an unexpected slump in manufacturing output.

The Monetary Policy Com-mittee increased the base rate by a quarter-point to 4.75 per cent, citing "robust growth" and continuing signs of business expansion. However, it said there were signs the housing market and consumer spending were starting to cool - a possible sign the MPC will pause before raising rates again.

The decision came as a relief after speculation it would order a half-point rise for the first time in its history to tackle the housing market boom.

Business leaders urged the Bank to think carefully before ordering another "potentially dangerous" rise. Kevin Hawkins, the head of the British Retail Consortium, said the rate hike was a mistake. "The MPC should have adopted a wait- and-see attitude," he said.

...more...

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2001998114_enron06.html

Ex-Enron trader pleads guilty, vows to help utilities recoup losses

SAN FRANCISCO — A former Enron trading executive pleaded guilty yesterday to charges he manipulated energy markets during California's power crisis in 2001. He promised to assist the state and other public utilities in their lawsuits seeking to recoup billions from the energy industry.

John Forney, 42, of Ohio, is the third Enron official to plead guilty to manipulating electricity prices from Enron's now-defunct trading office in Portland.

The crisis played a role in Pacific Gas & Electric's bankruptcy and will leave California consumers paying abnormally high electricity prices for years.

Forney faces up to five years in prison. He remains free on $500,000 bail.

"With the guilty plea of John Forney, we have now obtained convictions of the top three Enron executives most directly responsible for manipulating the energy markets in California at a time unique in our history, when the lights were going off and the grid was in danger of shutting down," U.S. Attorney Kevin Ryan said.

...more...

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=5897674

U.S. July mortgage prepayments fall, supply rises

NEW YORK, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Prepayments on U.S. mortgage bonds fell in July for the third consecutive month as fewer home loans were financed due to a general rise in mortgage rates this year, Wall Street analysts said on Friday.

Analysts estimated that $51 billion billion in fixed-rate mortgages that back bonds guaranteed by Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) were paid down in July, less than June's estimated paydown of $61 billion to $64 billion.

With fewer prepayments, the net supply of fixed-rate mortgage bonds grew by $8 billion, less than June's increase of over $15 billion, J.P. Morgan Securities analysts said in a research note on Friday.

July's prepayment slowdown on most mortgage-backed securities came mostly within analysts' forecasts.

"We expect minimal market reaction to these numbers given that they are generally in line with market consensus," Dale Westhoff, Bear Stearns analyst said in research report.

...more...

Just trying to keep the SMW thread from getting too bulky with my news stories :D

[54anickel]

94. ABSOLUTE LABOR DISADVANTAGE

Can't remember if this has already been posted here or not.
Sorry if it's a repeat.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/willie080404.html

snip>

One must be naïve or foolish or a basic simpleton to believe the rationalization behind job outsourcing. We are told of net job growth from the savings enjoyed by corporations. Cost savings from export of jobs to Asia permit a reprieve from business closure, since competition has become enormously difficult and rising costs force relentless cost cutting. Unless vast new businesses are spawned, no comparative advantage is gained. Officials like White House economic advisor Mankiw seem like street corner magicians working a shell game, when they claim net jobs are created from outsourcing. Instead, old jobs are preserved and new ones are created, just not in our country. The cost cutting advantage cuts across the entire service spectrum where the delivered product is based upon information and data. Output can be software, accounting ledgers, medical reviews, legal briefs, product design, or responses to questions, all lacking the personal physical touch, all delivered over networks. A tremendous slice of the US Economy is at risk of outsourcing. For a single company, the benefit is clear on the margin with cost savings. For the entire economy, we suffer from massive income loss, which is the essence of the Fallacy of Decomposition. The great majority of economists miss this critical distinction !!!

The work of David Ricardo on labor dynamics will be reviewed. He is being misquoted, just like Keynes has been. Capital investment is occurring in Asia by US firms. Our key advantage is technology, which we are transferring freely to Asia. We give away our only advantage, technology, while we build engines of wealth abroad. We talk about comparative advantage, when it aids the movement. We possess a crippling absolute labor disadvantage. We violate all of Ricardo's guidelines, but boast of advantage.

snip>

THE POLITICS OF JOBS
The Asian labor pay scale is one to two orders of magnitude lower than that inside the USA. Job growth is the big story nowadays. However, the reality is that within the US Economy, jobs are produced by statistical models far more than from employers. Over 1.1 million new jobs show up on the Birth-Death model from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which accounts for over 75% of claimed job growth. On the news, one can see proud claims of job growth, when they are mere estimates from questionable sources. This essay will not examine the fallacious grounds for that B-D model. Leave it that the model depends on data from an era long gone, before China was granted the Most Favored Nation in 1999, before worldwide connectivity and high-speed data transfer, before globalization had taken root. The B-D model probably is worthless; it is surely indefensible. Rather, a discussion follows on the complexity of the labor outsourcing initiative, which has accelerated in recent quarters.

Three principal issues define the public perception of the economy. Price inflation, aggregate economic growth, and job creation dominate their view. The issue of price inflation is offset in a huge way by home ownership, an asset which more than keeps pace with the price trend. Renters simply struggle. Economic growth, via the GDP, is a murky issue. The public has no idea of inventory buildup, or downward revisions from trade deficits, or the inter-relationship with productivity. Some of claimed GDP growth is merely unadjusted price inflation, kept low intentionally. They do understand job creation, especially when it applies to themselves, their family, and their close friends. It is doubtful that mainstream observers take the published 5.6% unemployment rate seriously. They know people who have lost jobs, whose work sites have announced layoffs, and those who no longer seek employment, the dropoffs who have exhausted benefits.

As a nation, whether leaders or citizens, we are incompetent in properly assessing the extreme threat to the US Economy from the trade gap, let alone Asian outsourcing. Critical to job creation is the location of business capital investment, where companies spend money to build big mfg plants with real output and paying jobs. A nation which depends upon foreign imports sends vast amounts of money abroad, a given percentage of which is devoted to investment in new equipment, new buildings, and new consulting to refine the mfg processes. That is not happening inside the USA, but rather in Asia. The side effect is that quality of US jobs has deteriorated, pay scales have worsened, as fringe benefits fall by the wayside. The great shortfall of job creation during this recovery is abysmal, millions below anything in past cycles.

The news is full of stories of job outsourcing, plant closing, and mass layoffs. The public hears of occasional propaganda that outsourcing creates net positive jobs, which is a cold heartless deception. The sponsors of such reports are US Mfg organizations who benefit from the lower costs and significant savings. How about a retort from the AFL-CIO? On their face, claims of net job growth are utterly ridiculous and laughable. Corporations continue to stand on the back of productivity claims, but in recent months have quieted such talk. It has become widely understood that productivity gains coincide with job layoffs, the two intimately connected. What began with increased output from new equipment brought online, and worker layoffs, has recently extended to increased output from Asian contributors. Clearly, and oddly, the US Economy has imported productivity from Asia. This viewpoint explains why productivity has failed to increase wages or generate much GDP growth at all.

much more.....

[Media_Lies_Daily]

98. Thanks for posting this. This is an excellent analysis of what's....

....REALLY happening as opposed to what we're being told is happening.

[54anickel]

101. Yeah, I tend to love Jim Willie

:loveya: The Golden Jackass

[54anickel]

95. 12:21 lunchbreak check-in

Dow 9,882.13 -80.90 (-0.81%)
Nasdaq 1,801.90 -19.73 (-1.08%)
S&P 500 1,072.34 -8.36 (-0.77%)
10-yr Bond 4.238% -0.162
30-yr Bond 5.039% -0.111
NYSE Volume 728,325,000
Nasdaq Volume 837,947,000

12:00PM : A July unemployment report that showed the slowest rate of job growth in 8 months has prompted a sharp downturn in equities this morning - one that has been reinforced by losses across most sectors and bearish market internals... This morning's nonfarm payrolls data was undoubtedly disappointing - at 32K, the result was about an eighth of the consensus estimate of 243K... June and May were also revised lower, by 34K and 27K, respectively... Strikingly, the unemployment rate actually fell 0.1% to 5.5% (consensus of 5.6%) as the household survey revealed a 52K drop in unemployment...
Nonetheless, traders have focused on the nonfarm payrolls number and used the figure as an excuse to sell... Brokerage, transportation, health care, material, semiconductor (more off Nvidia's wide miss last night), and energy have led the market's selling drive, and found support in retail and telecom... Energy has itself taken a hit off the 1% decrease in the price of crude oil, to $43.85, as OPEC's President said the organization was ready to add 1.5 mln barrels a day...

Interest-rate sensitive issues, however, have done quite well off the employment report's implications for interest rates (fed funds futures now indicate a 20% likelihood of a Fed hike at the September meeting, down from 70% earlier) and utility and gold have advanced... The bond market has not surprisingly rallied itself - the 10-year note up 41 ticks, bringing its yield to 4.24%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1357/1849, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 606/2267

11:30AM : The market continues to chop around in negative territory, bouncing from its lows to best levels but never making much headway to the upside... Semiconductor continues to act as a large drag on the indices, it pressured by developments out of its own members... Nvidia (NVDA 9.78 -4.78) issued a devastating Q2 (July) report last night in which the graphics semiconductor company missed the consensus bottom-line estimate by $0.12 - coming in at $0.03...

Management cited 'several unusual market events,' which has led most analysts to conclude that it suffered from company-specific problems, and not industry-wide... SOX -2.0, NYSE Adv/Dec 1316/1853, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 521/2276

[54anickel]

103. 1:29 - looks like the rest of the day will be as exciting as watching the

paint dry. Volumes nothing to write home about, it's Friday, think they all went home for the weekend. Personally, I'd be pretty suspicious of any late day rally at this point, not saying it can't happen - again. :shrug:

Dow 9,876.46 -86.57 (-0.87%)
Nasdaq 1,799.61 -22.02 (-1.21%)
S&P 500 1,071.80 -8.90 (-0.82%)
10-yr Bond 4.229% -0.171
30-yr Bond 5.039% -0.111
NYSE Volume 881,406,000
Nasdaq Volume 994,852,000

12:30PM: Buyers continue to stick to the sidelines as the major indices hover around their session lows... The S&P 500 has dropped below the bottom of its multi-month trading range at 1080/1076, but has found support at 1072 - a level identified by Briefing.com in this morning's Technical Take (a Platinum product offering)... The Nasdaq itself has given back approximately 1.1% and is holding steady around the 1800 mark... Presently, the Composite is down 9% for the year - nearly all of this occurring in the past 6 weeks...
Briefing.com continues to believe the summer trading months will be choppy (with low participation and geopolitical worries high with events like the Summer Olympics going on) and maintains our opinion that a conservative trading strategy is best...NYSE Adv/Dec 1417/1810, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 690/2226

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1487 (44%) 730 (23%)
Declines 1797 (53%) 2242 (72%)
Unchanged 91 (2%) 130 (4%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 190 (22%) 193 (19%)
Down Vol* 648 (76%) 772 (79%)
Unch. Vol* 5 (0%) 5 (0%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 21 10
New Lo's 132 244

[loudsue]

104. Thank you, Marketeers! Holding our noses as we go under!

I've wondered for a while when the market would start tanking. With so much unemployment, economic mismanagement and corruption going on, there's NO WAY we could keep supporting the illusion that things are just peachy.

I'm wondering how the PPT is going to stop this train crash!

:kick::kick::kick:

[JNelson6563]

106. The portrait comes out of the attic

1:43 and Treasuries are faring extraordinarily well but otherwise, heinous:


Dow 9,866.50 -96.53 (-0.97%)
Nasdaq 1,797.88 -23.75 (-1.30%)
S&P 500 1,070.82 -9.88 (-0.91%)
10-Yr Bond 4.229% -0.171


Julie

[Junkdrawer]

108. "how the PPT is going to stop this train crash!" - Well, when you...

just don't care how much hidden debt is incurred, you can prop up quite a bit.

But most likely, if history is an indication, they'll jawbone it until the volumes get smaller and then shoot it back up.

[loudsue]

111. Oooohhhh....I didn't realize that was how they were able to do it...

makes sense, though!

That's why I love the Marketeers! Y'all help us figure it all out, eventually!

Thanks!

:kick::kick:

[54anickel]

136. Have you checked the O/N Repos for the week?

http://www.321gold.com/fed/temp_bank_res.html

[The Magistrate]

107. It Would Seem, O King Of Kings, The 10,000 Line Is Decisively Breached

No defense short of 9,500 will be likely....

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[UpInArms]

109. 2:57 EST numbers falling further

Dow 9,827.94 -135.09 (-1.36%)
Nasdaq 1,789.34 -32.29 (-1.77%)
S&P 500 1,067.54 -13.16 (-1.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.227% -0.173

2:25PM: Equities hold steady at their latest lows as investors focus on lagging job growth and elevated oil prices... At this point (down 1.2-1.6%), the major indices are starting to approach their performance from yesterday (-1.6-1.8%) when the indices posted their second largest decline this year... As it stands now, the major indices are set to finish much lower for the week and end last week's (only) winning streak... Indeed, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have been down 5 out of the past 6 weeks as technical conditions have deteriorated and warded off potential buyers...NYSE Adv/Dec 1415/1880, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 702/ 2306

2:00PM: The bears exert their influence over the proceedings again and send the indices to new worst levels... Only a handful of sectors (utility, REIT, tobacco, gold) have been able to sustain upward movement, and none of them are large in size... Thus, the collective losses of technology, financial, health care, energy, material, retail, telecom, biotech, and transportation have only forced the market lower... At this point, the ratio of new highs to new lows at the NYSE and Nasdaq are 23:134 and 12:248, respectively... NYSE Adv/Dec 1498/1792, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 766/2240

[UpInArms]

110. U.S. June consumer credit rises $6.6 billion

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={D32CD3CA-E9AE-4D9D-8BFF-E905BFB26E88}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. consumer credit expanded by $6.6 billion, or a 3.9 percent annual rate, in June to a seasonally adjusted $2.04 trillion, the Federal Reserve said Friday. Revolving credit, such as credit cards, rose by $1.6 billion or 2.5 percent. Nonrevolving credit, such as auto loans, rose by $5.1 billion or 4.7 percent. May's increase in credit was revised to $8 billion from $8.2 billion earlier. Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch had forecast an increase of $5.5 billion in June.

and filling in the report blanks:

Aug 06 3:00 PM
Consumer Credit Jun
reported $6.6B
briefing.com anticipated $10.0B
market anticipated $4.0B
last report $8.0B
revised from $8.2B

adding 3:00 EST blather on revision:

3:00PM: Heading into the last hour of trading, the indices stumble again and proceed to dig a deeper hole in negative territory... The lack of any true sector leadership to the upside, the bearish stance of market internals, and the lack of volume seen in today's session have prompted market bulls to take a pass on this session... Every industry has been hit with selling, but defensive-oriented groups have held up better than growth-oriented ones - no doubt due to today's employment data... Household product, brewer, managed care, and soft drink have all posted losses of less than 1%...

The FOMC's meeting on Tuesday has no doubt prompted the more conservative investing approach...NYSE Adv/Dec 1449/1869, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 767/2285

[54anickel]

118. So I'm confused. Is this supposed to be a good thing for the markets

or a bad thing? I'm appalled by the high amount of credit, but they always seem to tout such things as being good for the economy - grease the wheels so to speak..:crazy:

[The Magistrate]

123. It Is Bad, Ma'am

It indicates current levels of spending cannot be sustained. Without spending, no profits. Worse, a good portion of this debt is likely to prove uncollectable, as persons owing it fall out of work....

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[KoKo]

127. Just got notice from my Credit Card Co. Interest raised by 6 points! How

are folks going to take that one? Six points! They just completed their merge with another bank...passing along that interest rate to the consumer. Back up to 21%. That's the way the Mafia Loan Sharks used to do it when they would give desperate people money and soak them for the interest...

[The Magistrate]

132. Indeed, My Friend

The differences between Mafia "five for six" men and credit card issuers are mostly sartorial: both are usurers, and the Mafia men are a good deal more honest in their activities....

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[54anickel]

128. OK, so it's bad that the level are rising and we're going deeper into

hock, or it's bad because it's not rising fast enough, meaning we "ain't shoppin' enough" buying little foreign made doo-hickeys at the local Wally-World.

Oh, Nevermind. Either way sounds pretty bad.

[KoKo]

139. Big Kulow/Kramer Love Fest on CNBC. Wayne Angel/former Fed and

some other guy (who actually compared US situation to Japanese situation) are both cautioning Greenspan NOT to increase interest rates too much. Angel says they have it "just right" at this point (analogy to many articles posted by "54" saying it's a Three Bears/Goldilocks thing we're dealing with) and the other guy (sorry about his name, he's a trader for some company...saying ease off "Mr.Greenspan" we can't handle the hikes in interest rates we really need to do...). :eyes:

The segment was a "shot across the bow (imho) to Greenspan that raising interest rates would hurt all those folks using their "HomeEquities" to purchase what one DU'er said here: "fast women and loose cars" and what I contributed was that along with that are the folks using their HomeEquities for "money for necessities" until they can find another job after they've been out mergered, outsourced, layed off, or fired for being "too old," etc...and they are hoping and praying that jobs come back. Until then they live off their house, hoping for better times. And, what else can folks do faced with what we are with these imbiciles in office?
Not a pretty picture no matter what it is for our Gross Domestic Product ("GDP) which is based on Consumer Spending and NOT on real manufacturing
or company hiring growth...as the Media Financial Whores Kudlow/Kramer are reporting it.

"Supply Side" rears it's ugly Reagan head once again and leads once again to failure in it's model...but who cares.

I imagine the stock market rally on Monday will lead to a new round of applause in that the crash of August 6th...stopped Greenspin in his tracks from raising interest rates and that's why our PPT didn't jump in like the Cavalry at 3:00 p.m. today and come to the rescue.

But, then, I'm a cynic about this stuff having read enough articles here that I know our DEBT, DEBT, DEBT...will at some point come home to roost. Whether it comes before the election or not is the real question and probably the battle raging out there which we have little control over. :nuke:

[54anickel]

141. The PPT, Greenspin and the PTB are probably somewhat relieved with

this. It continues to reinforce the "measured" rise in rates. This jobs report probably scared the jeebees out of a lot of folks that were screaming for higher rates to fight the nasty inflation we have (despite Greenspin's figure and transitory babble). Once again, the bond vigilantes have been corralled and Greenspin has got more time to coax the carry trades to unwind.

But that just my 2 pennies on it.

[KoKo]

142. Yep, "54", I think we are on the same page, here! n/t

[54anickel]

143. Time will tell, KoKo. I'm getting tired or trying to second guess these

idiots running our nation into the ground. It's just getting too hard to get into the corrupt and deranged state of mind it takes to think like them. :crazy: That, and I find it's not a very pleasant place to be for "my beautiful mind". :evilgrin:

[JNelson6563]

112. Oh the horror!

3:35 and we are in free-fall:


Dow 9,814.29 -148.74 (-1.49%)
Nasdaq 1,780.73 -40.90 (-2.25%)
S&P 500 1,064.55 -16.15 (-1.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.217% -0.183

They can't stop the bleeding. Ugh.

Julie

[loudsue]

113. Looks like another Friday stock market bust....

This happens a lot lately, no? Fridays aren't always good days for the market anymore.

:kick::kick::kick:

[UpInArms]

114. 3:41 EST and under 9,800

Dow 9,797.84 -165.19 (-1.66%)
Nasdaq 1,776.45 -45.18 (-2.48%)
S&P 500 1,062.96 -17.74 (-1.64%)
10-Yr Bond 4.217% -0.183

3:30PM: Trading screens are still awash in red figures as the indices continue to nosedive... Today's session has essentially been an extension of yesterday's - where losses have been huge and no sector has been immune... The threat of higher gasoline prices on an economy showing signs of weakness in jobs and spending has been enough to scare most buyers out of the market... Next week brings with it several events that might also keeping buying interest in check - the FOMC's meeting on Tuesday, Cisco's (CSCO 19.99 - 0.62) on Thursday, and the start of the Summer Olympics on Friday...

Following Wednesday's explosion of a homemade bomb near Athens, traders should be especially on edge on that day...NYSE Adv/Dec 1348/1977, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 697/2373

[54anickel]

115. DING< DING DING, Hey Phillybi, come on down!!! You're the next

contestant on, The DOW is Down

Dow 9,795.71 -167.32 (-1.68%)
Nasdaq 1,775.71 -45.92 (-2.52%)
S&P 500 1,062.19 -18.51 (-1.71%)
10-yr Bond 4.217% -0.183
30-yr Bond 5.035% -0.115
NYSE Volume 1,345,054,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,482,522,000

[UpInArms]

116. 3:57 EST and the calvary is near!

Dow 9,827.79 -135.24 (-1.36%)
Nasdaq 1,781.16 -40.47 (-2.22%)
S&P 500 1,065.90 -14.80 (-1.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.217% -0.183

[phillybri]

117. What do I win if I'm right???

:shrug:

[54anickel]

119. Lots of stock options!

:evilgrin:

[phillybri]

120. 147.63...So close...

That's roughly 300 points in 2 days...

WAY TO GO CHIMP!!!

[54anickel]

121. Whoops, too high (actually low since we're talking negatives)

Dow 9,815.33 -147.70 (-1.48%)

Thanks for playing. Put another quarter in and try again.

[loudsue]

122. I'm feelin' RED ALL OVER, yes I'm.. RED ALL OVER...Baby I'm RED all.

over, now that you're MINE!!

THANKS TO DU MARKETEERS....moved hubby's retirement account into CASH accounts about 1 mo. ago. He would have lost, big time, in the past week if it wasn't for you guys!

I have a very scrawny IRA, but bought some Bear Mkt. Mutual Funds in it about a month ago...thanks again to YOU, DU Marketeer 54aNickel!! They should be doing nicely about now! I didn't have much to lose, so I thought I'd take the gamble.

Nasdaq down 2 1/2 %.....yikes!! And the S&P down 1.71%...

lots of folks are "feeling your pain" today.

:kick::kick:

[54anickel]

125. Raining all over....

Hoverin' by my briecase, tryin' to find a warm place to spend the night
Heavy markets fallin', seems I hear Als voice callin' "It's all right."
A rainy night on Wall Street, a rainy night on Wall Street
It seems like it's rainin' all over the world
I feel like it's rainin' all over the world

Oh, have you ever been flat broke, people?
And you feel that it was rainin' all over this man's world
You're talking 'bout rainin', rainin', rainin', rainin', rainin', rainin', rainin',
Rainin', rainin' rainin', rainin', rainin'

[54anickel]

130. Please, no credit (or blame) for the DU Marketeers. We just find 'em and

post 'em. Articles, thoughts and ideas you won't hear from the mainstream media whores. Sometimes they're on, sometimes they're off.

[daleo]

126. Yikes, 300 points in two days!

I think yesterday's 150 point must have been due to a leak about the jobs report. Insiders must have known that the news was going to be bad, and got an early jump on the dump. I wonder how the cat was let out of the bag?

[54anickel]

129. Well, it seems the Japanese bond market was on to it before it was

released (from an article posted here somewhere). That cat is pretty tricky these days. Always sneaking in and out of bags. Some folks just can't keep a secret I guess.

[54anickel]

131. Closing numbers and yada - Mop and bucket again please.

Dow 9,815.33 -147.70 (-1.48%)
Nasdaq 1,776.89 -44.74 (-2.46%)
S&P 500 1,063.97 -16.73 (-1.55%)
10-yr Bond 4.217% -0.183
30-yr Bond 5.035% -0.115
NYSE Volume 1,523,033,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,695,462,000

Close: It was like déjà vu all over again, with the major indices tumbling unabatedly to a finish at their lows - only this time, the catalyst was an economic report as opposed to a climb higher in oil prices... The July employment report fell way short of market expectations as nonfarm payrolls came in at a slim 32K, and sent the major indices 1.5-2.5% lower for their lowest finish this year... This was below even the lowest estimate (+170K) contained in the consensus estimate and represented the weakest reading in 8 months...
The unemployment rate actually dipped 0.1% lower, to 5.5% (consensus of 5.6%), but that was more a function of discrepancies between the household (unemployment) and establishment (nonfarm payrolls) surveys... The 32K shocked the market, and renewed concerns about a slowing consumer first brought up with last Friday's Q2 Advanced GDP report... Just about every single industry group got slammed in the market meltdown, with software, computer hardware, brokerage, industrial, transportation, and semiconductor falling the most... The latter contended with its own problems with Nvidia's (NVDA 9.43 -5.13) huge Q2 (July) earnings miss...

Energy itself was undercut by a 1% decline in the price of crude oil, to $43.95/bbl, as a Russian court ruled illegal the government's seizure of shares in a key subsidiary of YUKOS... The only areas to lure buyers off the sidelines were homebuilding and gold - both, in part, to the huge dip in interest rates (10-year note rallied 49 ticks today, bringing its yield to 4.20%) and the lowered expectations (as determined by the fed funds futures) for a Fed tightening in August (89% from 100%) and September (12% from 75%)...

Gold itself benefited from the tumble in the dollar versus the yen and euro off the global interest rate differential... SOX -3.9, XOI -2.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 1285/2069, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 668/2444

3:30PM : Trading screens are still awash in red figures as the indices continue to nosedive... Today's session has essentially been an extension of yesterday's - where losses have been huge and no sector has been immune... The threat of higher gasoline prices on an economy showing signs of weakness in jobs and spending has been enough to scare most buyers out of the market... Next week brings with it several events that might also keeping buying interest in check - the FOMC's meeting on Tuesday, Cisco's (CSCO 19.99 -0.62) on Thursday, and the start of the Summer Olympics on Friday...

Following Wednesday's explosion of a homemade bomb near Athens, traders should be especially on edge on that day...NYSE Adv/Dec 1348/1977, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 697/2373

3:00PM : Heading into the last hour of trading, the indices stumble again and proceed to dig a deeper hole in negative territory... The lack of any true sector leadership to the upside, the bearish stance of market internals, and the lack of volume seen in today's session have prompted market bulls to take a pass on this session... Every industry has been hit with selling, but defensive-oriented groups have held up better than growth-oriented ones - no doubt due to today's employment data... Household product, brewer, managed care, and soft drink have all posted losses of less than 1%...

The FOMC's meeting on Tuesday has no doubt prompted the more conservative investing approach...NYSE Adv/Dec 1449/1869, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 767/2285


Have a great weekend everyone. Hope no one was hurt too badly. I guess I'll stick around and mop up the bloody mess on the floor again today. :hi:

[UpInArms]

133. closing numbers and blather

Dow 9,815.33 -147.70 (-1.48%)
Nasdaq 1,776.89 -44.74 (-2.46%)
S&P 500 1,063.97 -16.73 (-1.55%)
10-Yr Bond 4.217% -0.183

Close: It was like déjà vu all over again, with the major indices tumbling unabatedly to a finish at their lows - only this time, the catalyst was an economic report as opposed to a climb higher in oil prices... The July employment report fell way short of market expectations as nonfarm payrolls came in at a slim 32K, and sent the major indices 1.5-2.5% lower for their lowest finish this year... This was below even the lowest estimate (+170K) contained in the consensus estimate and represented the weakest reading in 8 months...

The unemployment rate actually dipped 0.1% lower, to 5.5% (consensus of 5.6%), but that was more a function of discrepancies between the household (unemployment) and establishment (nonfarm payrolls) surveys... The 32K shocked the market, and renewed concerns about a slowing consumer first brought up with last Friday's Q2 Advanced GDP report... Just about every single industry group got slammed in the market meltdown, with software, computer hardware, brokerage, industrial, transportation, and semiconductor falling the most... The latter contended with its own problems with Nvidia's (NVDA 9.43 -5.13) huge Q2 (July) earnings miss...

Energy itself was undercut by a 1% decline in the price of crude oil, to $43.95/bbl, as a Russian court ruled illegal the government's seizure of shares in a key subsidiary of YUKOS... The only areas to lure buyers off the sidelines were homebuilding and gold - both, in part, to the huge dip in interest rates (10-year note rallied 49 ticks today, bringing its yield to 4.20%) and the lowered expectations (as determined by the fed funds futures) for a Fed tightening in August (89% from 100%) and September (12% from 75%)...

[54anickel]

134. Simulpost! Hey, you mind grabbing a mop and lending a hand?

:hi:

[UpInArms]

135. I here with my tools :)

[bain_sidhe]

138. Well, I guess it's all over but the howling...

for this week, anyway. I'm not one to gloat or anything, but at least my self-esteem is on the mend... I was beginning to think I was stupid for not believing in Rumplestiltspan. He seemed to be weaving stock-market gold out of consumer-debt straw, while I - in classic "buy-high, sell low" style - pulled all our money out of the market just about at the bottom in 2003, and kept watching it go up these last few months and saying to myself, "it won't last. It can't last.... can it?"

I kinda hate to be right, but I'm kinda happy not to be stupid...

[KoKo]

140. Watch this "Market." Lower Lows and Lower Highs...and PPT didn't "ride

to the rescue." Warning to Greenspin.....do NOT go hard on those "interest rate increases." We gotta get "little Georgie" re-elected...go easy...go slow...we warned you August 6th...now listen to us...:shrug:

[saigon68]

137. NICE JOB CHENEY YOU SCUMBAG

You can only steal so much money. Sooner or later even the most disinterested corpse gets up and notices what is happening.


LOL