Analyst says Bush needs `miracle' to win re-election

[Nambe]

The Gadsden Times

George W. Bush would need a "miracle" to win the presidential election as the war in Iraq becomes increasingly unpopular, a political analyst told members of the Business Council of Alabama.

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said if the election was held now, Democratic nominee John Kerry "would win very handily." The war is the biggest factor hurting Bush's re-election chances, he said, noting that if the president hadn't ordered the U.S. invasion of Iraq last year, he likely would be leading in 45 states and heading toward a landslide victory.

"He really will need a miracle to win, and the last miracle was for Harry S. Truman," Sabato told the Birmingham News after his speech at the council's governmental affairs conference in Point Clear. Truman pulled his upset presidential victory in 1948. ..

Democratic Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley, who joined dozens of legislators listening to Sabato's speech, said his national perspective offered an interesting contrast to the view from Alabama, which tends to vote heavily Republican in presidential elections. ..
Ride Don’t Drive * * It’s Global Cool

[0007]

1. I'm more than sure that junior expects the hand of God to intervene.

[Florida_Geek]

11. Or the hand of Touchscreen Makers nt

:mad:

[cthrumatrix]

21. 30% of votes ar eto be counted with Computers .... so there's the plan

[Pathwalker]

38. And if they lose, they'll just scream VOTER FRAUD

using it as a two-edged sword against us. Funny how that works out.

[tom_paine]

44. Nazis, Soviets and Busheviks are the same in that regard

They pathologically accuse their enemies of EXACTLY what THEY are doing themselves.

Always.

Look at Nazi calumnies and accusation against the Jews. They read like a Nai To-Do List.

Busheviks are just the same...only less overt and violent (for the moment).

[Pathwalker]

46. Which is why *'s intern(ment) camps statement

worries me. He says they have no plans for that...which means they DO!

[DoYouEverWonder]

2. I think he meant to say 'terrorist attack'

rather than 'miracle'.

Jesus did miracles, George does terrorist attacks.

[Triana]

3. George has a whole passel of 'miracles' to help him "win"

...the FL voter cleansing list - the likes of which are being used nationwide this election, not just in FL this time

...the f*cked up voting machines that leave no paper or audit trail and are unreliable and wholly hackable

...the 'terror' whip continually being used to bludgeon the general populace about the head and neck with fear and that may ultimately be used to manipulate the election - or at least be used to try to influence it either nationwide or at least in key states (California)

...the ultimatum to Pak to turn out binLaden in time for the elections to help bu$Hit

...the nationwide gerrymandering of districts to dilute the Democratic, minority, and progressive vote

...and if all that fails, the Usurping Court will be happy to just re-appoint him.

LOTS of little "Miracles" to help George...

[DeaconBlues]

8. yep

Over 30% of voters will be using some form of computerized voting in the fall. I am sure "miracles" for Bush will be happening all over the country if something isn't done.

[sendero]

9. Bush*....

... cannot do in other states what he did in FL, he doesn't have a brother for governor or the infrastructure to control the entire voting process.

The SC is not about to make the mistake they made in 2000 again.

The voting machines are a problem, but they can only skim so many votes before it becomes obvious. This will only work if the race is close. It won't be.

Osama - ok, I'll give you that one. I agree that it is very likely he will show up soon. But guess what? The Bush* administrations own insistence that he is "not important" will make it almost a non-event.

Kerry will win in November. Bush*'s desparation is costing him votes, not winning them.

[BiggJawn]

10. The SCROTUS made a mistake?

I thought they did exactly what they were told to do.

[sendero]

13. I don't know about you...

.... but I've noticed a lot of careful unbiased rulings since 2000. Could we agree on the possibility that the infamous 5 realized that they had acted hastily and that history would not look kindly on their action?

In sharp contrast to Bush*, who has said that (paraphrased)"history is too far in the future to worry about now", I think most on the court do care about how they are percieved.

Of course, Bush* is going to be surprised to find that history moves a lot faster than it used to. Unless he lives a short life, he will live to see his name in disrepute. It won't be easy for a narcissist to handle :)

[trotsky]

18. I think that Rehnquist and O'Connor

MAY have had a twinge of guilt about Selection 2000 and that's why we haven't seen them retire during *'s term. Their legacy is stained, and although it may take a generation or two, Bush v. Gore will go down as possibly the worst SC decision in history.

[sendero]

20. Fair enough....

... I suppose it really is too much to expect Thomas or Scalia to have any real ethics :)

[tomfodw]

23. Have to disagree

It was terrible, no doubt, but the Dred Scott decision (1857) was far worse, since we are still, in a sense, living with some of the effects of that travesty. It's far too early at this point to have any idea what the long-term effects of Selection 2000 will be. Granted, for a SC decision even to be in the running compared to the Dred Scott case is a black mark that it will be almost impossible for the Rehnquist Court to overcome.

[trotsky]

25. You know, I thought of Scott as well as Plessy v. Ferguson when writing...

And yes, while both are despicable, Bush v. Gore effectively negated democracy itself, and so I'd have to give it the nod.

[Raenelle]

32. I'm with you Trotsky--Bush v. Gore was the worst

and also the most corrupt.

[primavera]

31. I heard from a friend who was clerking for Souter at the time...

... that the decision resulted in a schism in the court unlike anything that had preceded it: evidently the four sane justices have scarcely even been willing to speak with the five conservative justices since then. Plainly the decision was perceived even by their peers on the bench as being purely motivated by political partisanship and without even the most meagre figleaf of a basis in law to support it. I must say, I found it suggestive that the majority opinion, on such an historic occasion when, for the first time in history, the fascist five did a complete 180 reversal of their absolutely consistent record of supporting states rights at any cost, offered no justification for their decision whatsoever, but limited the "opinion" only to the bare verdict with no explanation provided.

[nodictators]

29. Question: Did Cheney call his hunting buddy Scalia and...

...tell him to stop the Florida 2000 recount?

I don't have any evidence other than that very curious hunting trip that Cheney took with Scalia going along for the ride in Air Force 2.

[Triana]

12. I hope you're right, deseo...

...but I'm still v.skeptical of this regime. I would put NOTHING past them to stay in power, considering the crap they've so far pulled - and gotten away with.

[sendero]

15. They haven't gotten "away"...

... with that much. For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

Bush* has energized the Democratic party like no other thing could. There is strong evidence to support the prediction that voter turnout is going to be massive. There is strong evidence to support the idea that many young voters who hitherto could not be bothered to register and vote are going to do just that.

If a bank robber is sitting in a fine restaurant a month after his heist enjoying a great meal on his ill gotten gains, he is a fool if he thinks he has "gotten away with it". The police could be two blocks away.

[caraher]

39. But what if election thieves think big?

>The voting machines are a problem, but they can only skim so many votes >before it becomes obvious. This will only work if the race is close. It >won't be.

Oh, but the trouble is that recounts only get triggered if the margins are close - but an electronic vote fraud can be as large as the programmer chooses to make it! Don't forget that Max Cleland was a shoo-in according to the polls, by 5% or so, but lost his 2002 Senate race by about that margin. Ironically, big-time fraud may prove harder to combat than monkey business in a recount.

The relevant question is not the overall closeness of the popular vote but whether there are enough black-box voting machines with no paper trail in enough states to tilt the election. Sounds like there are. Which scares me.

[glitch]

50. Welcome to DU! and you are right

it ain't over til it's over. There will be alot of finger-pointing and yelling, think brooks brothers riot on overdrive. They have a lot more to lose this time, their cover has been blown.

If they'd lost last time they could try again as 'compassionate conservative' moderates.

But now we know who they are, so this is it for them.

Yet I am still optimistic. I think our dem leaders know who they really are this time too, and are playing a much smarter game.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

45. That's where you're very wrong. Go back to the 2000 election and....

...read local media reports/articles from all of the other Southern states. I think you'll find that the same tactics used in Florida were also used in all or portions of Mississippi, Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, and Texas. The other states flew under the radar because the media focused the country's attention on Florida, and Florida alone.

Polls were closed early, people were directed to polls that were not open, police blocked main roads to certain polling areas, and polls were closed at the last minute redirecting those voters to polling places across town.

[sendero]

60. Yes....

... but now we know about all of these tactics and we're more in a postition to prevent them or raise holy hell if they are pulled again.

[Bandit]

69. None of that stuff ever happens in Oregon

Everybody votes from the comfort of their own kitchen table. The mailman comes and takes their vote so they don't ever need to stand in any line or show multiple IDs or worry about parking or????? It is the future and we need to embrace it rapidly. Turn out is our biggest enemy. We don't get our people out. Oregon has the best turnout in the Nation over 80%. We would be a solid Democratic Nation if every state had vote by mail.

[Morning Dew]

58. They wanted to try it here in MN - Sec. of State got smacked down

http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/9220561.htm?1c


<snip>

A Minnesota administrative law judge on Thursday rejected controversial voter registration rules proposed by Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer that local election officials feared could have disenfranchised potential first-time voters.

Judge George Beck issued the order just hours after several local election officials and groups promoting voting testified at a legislative hearing that the proposed voter registration rules would discourage some first-time voters who go to the polls on Election Day from casting ballots.

One proposed rule would have required an "exact match" between the data an applicant submitted on a voter registration application and the information on that person's driver's license or state identification card.

County auditors objected to the exact-match requirement, contending it would prevent them from completing the registrations of voters whose identities they could confirm in other ways. They argued it would have blocked them from registering applicants who, for instance, used their middle initial on one form and their middle name on another, or who transposed two numbers in their 13-digit driver's license number, or whose handwriting was illegible.

<snip>

Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Co. are intent on delivering Minnesota to Bush on 11/2.

[amber dog democrat]

4. OK I admit it..... I have a price.

If the chimp came by with 5 million dollars in a sack, I'd have a very difficult time making a choice. It would mean some sleepless nights...

but this is not time to gloat yet.... They could still try to steal it again. Who knows?
The Chimp may be going down, but I am keeping my eye on the prize.
I fear this is an unconditional war. Take no prisoners. As much as I am encouraged by this post, its not over yet. They have a siege like mentality and are still dangerous and desparate.

[dbt]

5. Translation: look for Terra Attack on October 20.

[sleepyhead]

74. Or trotting Bin Laden out

I have Oct. 19 in the Bin Laden pool!

[MaineDem]

6. I truly expect the BFEE to create "miracles"

They won't go quietly. They'll manufacture whatever is necessary. We have to be prepared.

[LynneSin]

7. you said it better than me

:P

They'll create their 'miracles' and trust me, God won't have his hands involved in it but somehow he'll be given the 'credit'

[primavera]

28. Well said

Bill Maher remarked on Real Time last week that, if the American public perceived the Democratic convention to be staged, wait until the Republican convention when Osama bin Laden is hauled out from the back of the hall in chains like King Kong. And if that doesn't do the trick, Diebold I'm sure will be only too happy to provide a glitch in the vote counting software. And if that too should fail, well, we know we can always rely upon the five conservatives on SCOTUS to overturn any election which doesn't go their way.

[tom_paine]

54. Exactly. When a Bush says there is going to be a bloodbath

There is GOING TO BE a BLOODBATH!

Or whatever other October Surprises the Busheviks have cooked up.

[Wednesdays]

67. I predict October 29 or 30...

:nuke: :scared:

[underpants]

14. Sabato?

Uh-oh. I suspect the TV stations in Richmond won't let a camera get near for a while then, can't upset the conventional wisdom 'round here ya know.

[markus]

26. Yeah, but doesn't Sabato fall pretty clearly in the "neo-Democrat"

column?

That's my recollection from my brief stint working in VA politics (Don Beyer's first run for LtGov), and from his subsequent pundetry.

I think coming from somebody like Sabato, that *has* to string.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

16. bush*s miracle: another MIHOP terrorist attack before the election

:scared:

[PfcHammer]

17. Analyst says Bush needs another `Pearl Harbor' to win re-election

Haven't we been here before ?

[Mika]

19. More like another 'Perle harbor'

n/t

[Kolesar]

22. The war gave the GOP their victories in 2002

The bush administration politicized the hell out of the lead up to the war and that won them a few seats in the Senate. Only with that war could they have defeated Max Cleland.

So, I don't agree that bush would have been on his way to a 45 state electoral landslide. GOP only has one god damned issue and that is war. Were it not for the war, the public would have been reviewing bush's record on domestic policies and the fight against Osama Bin Laden.

[flordehinojos]

24. It will be more like the DIRTY CIA HANDS OF POPPY AND BRO. JEB

and Bush is counting on them heart and soul to deliver the oval office to him once again. I wonder if he will have a crisis of faith if BY ANY REAL MIRACLE FROM GOD he happens to lose the elections? Will the disappointment restart his alcohol use?
:eyes:

[lebkuchen]

27. The Kennybunkport preacher just smacked Bush for being too stingy

with his unearned wealth.

There goes the sane Christian vote.

[The Magistrate]

30. As Mr. Sabado Is More On The Other Side Than Not

This is a very interesting and heartening analysis. He is mistaken that this wretched reptile would be cruising to victory had he not invaded Iraq, of course; the jackanapes would be being crushed due to his economic incompetence, corrupt cronyism, and the tremendous anger of the people at the theft of the Presidency. But it is the calamatous folly of the invasion and its bloody and intractable sequelia, that puts the edge on popular distaste just now....

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[Barrett808]

34. Good to have you back, Magistrate

Always enjoy your erudite thoughts.

[yellowcanine]

40. Actually Sabato usually calls them as he sees them. I used to think he

favored the pubs with his predictions but then I realized that was just my wishful Dem thinking getting in the way. He has been correct too many times to be a shill.

[The Magistrate]

49. He Is Honest Enough, Sir

And values his reputation as a skilled observer above his political sentiments, that is true enough. But he showed his true colors during the reactionary offensive against President Clinton, and my memory for such things is very, very long....

"Speak of it never, think of it always."

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[Merlin]

65. Sir, you are in fine form today !

Excellent post. The game of the season is Texas peacock. Pride has clearly gone before this Fall.

[The Magistrate]

70. Thank You, My Friend

The coffee was good, and the news most invigorating. It smells like '92 to me....

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[RobinA]

33. Call Me a Pessimist

but I'm still not convinced he's going to need a miracle. The race is within the margin of error AFTER the Dem convention and BEFORE the Repub convention. AND after several months of nothing whatsoever good happening to Bush. To me, the fact the the race is even competitive at this point does not bode well for Kerry.

[daleo]

35. I saw a brief article where Florida appellate court said:

The people of Florida have a right to vote, but not a right to paper ballots (in a case brought by Waxman recently). I am sure there are still some legal steps to go, but the decision didn't look heartening.

[Jackpine Radical]

76. IOW the right to vote doesa not imply

the right to have your vote accurately counted.

[SOS]

36. Bush miracle = 38 million votes

counted in secret by his friends at Diebold.
Without a voter verified paper trail, Kerry cannot win. The election will be stolen before the results are even announced. No need to embarrass the Supreme Court again.

[Bowline]

37. Not a miracle, just a rigged election.

Hmmm, good thing that could never happen in the U.S., eh?

[tom_paine]

41. When a Bush says there's going to be a bloodbath...

THERE IS going to be a BLOODBATH!

LIHOP #2 is already on the table. Not out of the question that it's MIHOP #2 and the wheeels are already ion motion.

An attack would benefit Bunnypants*, so an attack is going to happen.

[Qutzupalotl]

51. I think that could backfire.

Bush would be seen as a failed protector.

I don't doubt they've considered it, and it may still be in the works if all else fails. But I'd put the likelihood at well below 50%.

They were lucky with 9/11...the crime scene was destroyed. The only evidence remaining is highly suspicious cronyism. Next time they might not be so lucky...and many, many more people will be watching them closely. 9/11 did change everything, including the ease of repeating it.

If the Plame indictments come before the convention, they could do something drastic like changing the ticket; if after the convention but before the election, they'll have to resort to lies, distractions, false comparisons and changing the subject.

[Strelnikov_]

42. Well, Boosh Says God Wanted Him To Be President

so I guess praying for a miracle is a valid campaign strategy.

[JDPriestly]

43. Bush is getting his voters committed.

You know those pledges people have to sign to attend his events. That is a very clever ploy, and we Democrats should use something similar. In his old book, "Secrets of Power Persuasion," page 97, Roger Dawson describes an experiment in which psychologists showed that people who think their opinions on something are private are likely to change their minds, but students who make their opinions public are not.

Kerry needs to ask his supporters to sign something or do something to make their intent to vote for him public. That is very important. We need to be out their getting people who are not activists to state in writing that they will vote for Kerry before the Republican Convention. Any ideas as to how we could do this?

[reprobate]

47. Bush voters SHOULD be committed

Committed to an institution, that is.

[krkaufman]

71. Ummm... no.

You know those pledges people have to sign to attend his events. ... we Democrats should use something similar.
...
Kerry needs to ask his supporters to sign something or do something to make their intent to vote for him public.

I'd prefer my candidate to treat the voters respectfully, and as adults. Let's leave the Orwellian manipulation of the voters to the Right Wing and try to win the war through the strength of our platform.

[Barkley]

48. I went bike riding thru Cincinnati Sunday and there are way more Kerry

signs in people front lawns of Silverton, Kennedy Heights, Pleasant Ridge and Walnut Hills than Bush signs.

Cincinnati's very conservative but I think Kerry will win here.

[Xipe Totec]

52. Miracle, Thy Name is Electronic Ballot

Face it. Jeb Bush is still short-stopping for his brother in Florida.

They're already, in a not too subtle way, warning Republicans to use absentee ballots instead of the electronic gizmos.

I smell another "Butterfly Effect" in the wind.


:mad:

[Surf Cowboy]

53. Very good news, especially coming from Sabato;

he's a very respected academic, and (as you might imagine) coming from UVa, he's got a rather conservative bent. The fact that he is making this judgment gives it far more credibility, and to me sounds almost like a lament.

Woo-hoo!!!

[VoteDemocratic2004]

55. Can Bush turn water into wine?

He doesn't stand a chance in hell of winning legally.

[JaneDoughnut]

56. He doesn't need a miracle....

just continued civic ignorance in the electorate. I would love to believe Kerry will win by a landslide, but I don't see it. This race is going to be tooth and nail and we need to get every voter to the polls. I'm a liberal from Louisiana and I feel very lonely!

[bearfan454]

59. Welcome to DU

Now you can get the real news.

[Arugula Latte]

57. I find it amusing

that Sabato thinks Bush would win in a landslide if it weren't for the war.

Yes, that stellar economic policy has given us booming prosperity, low unemployment, a bull market, and a balanced budget for four years, so if it weren't for that pesky war ... oh, wait ... never mind.

[wurzel]

61. He'll need to hit the Trifector. Again. n/t

[AussieDave]

62. This is all very well.......

but I'm sorry - I won't believe this until I see Bush snivelling his way through his concession speech, right before he throws himself to the floor and pitches the Mother of All Tantrums (but Poppy - you said I could be president for TWO terms !!!!).

Bush's miracle will come in the form of another terrorist attack, which will drive all the rubes - oops I meant sheep - back to the flock. It wouldn't surprise me a bit.

[BillAnthony]

63. Positive post

I'm not so pessimistic. Sure Rove & co. are ruthless, sure they are maniacal, but they are also proving with each day to be incredibly inept and desperate and we've got em on the run. I strongly sense things are breaking in our favor in a big way.

My hunch is this race will come to resemble 1980- a "close" race that will break late and large in the challenger's favor.

[IndianaGreen]

64. Bush is no Truman!

Bush already lost this election. The only remaining question is turnout. Will enough voters bother to show up on Election Day to vote for a candidate to replace Bush?

Will the voting machines count the votes accurately?

[shanti]

66. i'm sure that can be arranged...

doesn't the chimp have a direct line to gawd? :-( /sarcasm

[GOPBasher]

68. E-voting can provide him the miracle.

[meisje]

72. one mans natural disaster is another mans miracle

[Barkley]

73. Its the Economy Stupid!

• Ohio's total non-farm employment stood at 5,615,000 at the end of 2000, 5,372,000 in June of this year.

• Kentucky had a record 1,830,000 jobs in December 2000, but only 1,793,000 in June 2004.

• Indiana's non-farm employment stood at 2,975,000 in December 2000, 2,916,000 two months ago.

In Ohio, a swing state that is crucial to Bush's re-election prospects, as in Kentucky and Indiana, jobs have emerged as a central issue in the campaign. All three states reflect the national pattern: heavy job losses during the economic downturn, a modest recovery, but still not enough new jobs to offset the layoffs. According to data reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

http://www.cincypost.com/2004/08/11/edita081104.html

[JohnDoe1]

75. Uh oh!

We all know what this means...

The terror alert status has just been raised to baboon's ass red. Al Qaeda is preparing to simultaneously strike every single town in the US. John Kerry supports Al Qaeda and isn't patriotic.

[MODemocrat]

77. A miracle eh? like Carnahan and Wellstone?

I see where his ratings have inched up a bit, but more than likely that in itself is not going to be good enough.

[Mari333]

78. He never won the first time. n/t

[Gyre]

79. A 'miracle' but more likely a 'disaster'

[area51]

80. invasion of Iraq

"If Bush hadn't ordered the invasion of Iraq, he likely would be leading in 45 states and heading toward a landslide victory."

Not! There's no way he'd be in the lead w/the damage he's done to the economy.