STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 11 August

[ozymandius]

Wednesday August 11, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 162
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 83
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 243 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 297 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 510
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 993
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 10, 2004

Dow... 9,944.67 +130.01 (+1.32%)
Nasdaq... 1,808.70 +34.06 (+1.92%)
S&P 500... 1,079.04 +13.82 (+1.30%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.29% +0.04 (+1.01%)
Gold future... 402.30 -0.60 (-0.15%)


|||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[Merlin]

1. Can the pension fund managers push it over $10K at the end of the day?

It will be exciting to watch.

[KoKo]

36. So far even the "pension fund" managers are backing off...

The "PPT" seems to have decided to lower it's sights on how high to prop, too. We'd probably take out our gains since 9/11 if the real story was out there. I guess we need to be thankful for small "prop" favors. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.72 Change -0.07 (-0.08%)

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=5932968

Dollar Pauses After Fed-Inspired Rally

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar paused for breath on Wednesday after staging a broad- based rally in New York trade after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and reaffirmed its bullish view of the U.S. economy.

The U.S. central bank raised rates for the second time in six weeks on Tuesday, lifting target borrowing costs by a quarter-point to 1.50 percent.

But the dollar struggled to extend its rally on Wednesday as investors waited to see whether upcoming data would support the Fed's view that the U.S. economy would bounce back strongly after a temporary slowdown caused by higher energy costs.

"There was an initial bounce in the dollar because some people had been betting on a no-change rate decision," said Gavin Redknap, economist at Standard Chartered.

But he added that the case for a further rate rise next month would depend on the strength of forthcoming economic data.

"The Fed did not change its promise to raise rates at a measured pace, but I do not think this necessarily signals they will move again in September," said Redknap.

...more...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A54975-2004Aug10.html

Predicting Growth, Fed Lifts Key Rate

Federal Reserve officials yesterday expressed confidence that the economy will regain momentum in the months ahead and raised a key short-term interest rate to ensure inflation remains under control.

Fed policymakers, in a statement issued after their meeting, blamed high energy prices for the recent sharp slowdown in economic growth and job gains. They made clear they still view that "softness" as temporary and believe they can likely stick to their plan of lifting rates gradually as the expansion continues.

The Fed's action appeared to dismiss concerns that the economic recovery is faltering again, just months before a presidential election that could hinge on perceptions of the economy's health. While presidents in the past have urged the Fed to keep rates as low as possible, President Bush characterized the Fed's last rate increase, in June, as a sign the economy is getting stronger.

But critics said that by blaming oil prices for the recent dip in economic growth, the Fed was playing down the role of weak job and income growth in cooling the economy.

<snip>

Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital Inc., wrote in an analysis that the Fed statement paints "an unwarranted rosy picture of the prospects for the U.S. economy." He argues that the Fed has already held rates too low for too long, allowing inflationary pressures to build while encouraging too much borrowing.

...more...

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=reutersEdge&storyID=5931139

Risky Business - Are Asset Markets Too Complacent?

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Blame it on confidence, coincidence or complacency. Or then again, it could be down to program-trading. Or maybe it's seasonal.

Theories abound. But whatever the reason, markets are betting that it will be smooth sailing across asset classes and across geographies. So much so that analysts say investors may be underestimating the risk of market turbulence.

In other words, options may be a buy.

Implied volatility -- the standard measure for option prices -- has been falling steadily this year in stock, bond, currency and commodity markets.

Equity vols have just bounced off an eight-year low, and interest rate vols in major markets are hovering above two-year troughs struck last month. Vols on currencies ranging from the euro to the Chinese yuan are near 2004 lows.

"The current global level of volatility is a reflection of the extremely low level of risk awareness," said Alexander Kinmont, a Japanese equities strategist at Nikko Citigroup in Tokyo, referring to the softness in equity and rates volatility.

"Normally, very low volatility coincides with markets that are fat and happy, and that is why low volatility is dangerous."

<snip>

But this could well be the calm before a perfect storm, analysts say, just as last week's surprises in U.S. data and oil prices stunned some market players.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

3. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:14AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -8.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -25.5. Cisco- related selling pressure in the futures market has abated somewhat, but the cash market is still expected to open on a negative note... Expectations for the weak start have pressured European bourses, which are sporting losses in the neighborhood of 0.9- 1.7%

8:53AM: S&P futures vs fair value: - 9.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -26.0. A slight improvement in the futures action since the last update but enthusiasm among buyers is clearly lacking in the wake of Cisco's uninspiring revenue outlook for what is typically a seasonally weak period

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -9.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -27.0. Cash market poised to do a U-turn at the open as Cisco's uninspiring outlook and lowered revenue expectations by NSM and KLIC are fueling concerns about end demand and the pace of earnings growth for the tech sector and the broader market

8:03AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -10.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -27.5. Futures market in a sour mood following Cisco's earnings report... Current readings imply a noticeably lower open for the cash market with the tech sector expected to lead the pullback; added element of concern is a Washington Times report that al Qaeda has been planning a high-profile political assassination

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight and poised to resume last week's sharp decline, which led to a breakout below July's low crossing at 1360. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the decline continues, a test of weekly support crossing at 1267.54 is possible later this year. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1361.40 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. The September NASDAQ 100 was down 12.00 pt. at 1324.50 as of 6:49 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Tuesday's short covering gains. The recent breakout below May's low crossing at 1097.50 has opened the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 1049.20 later this summer. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1085.53 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. The September S&P 500 Index was down 4.90 pts. at 1071.30 as of 6:51 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

4. Cisco beats in Q4, but inventories building up

http://www.ottawabusinessjournal.com/282676598953727.php

Cisco Systems Inc., the world's largest maker of network equipment, beat the Street after Tuesday's market close as profits jumped 41 per cent in its fourth quarter.

The San Jose-based company reported a profit for the July quarter $1.38 billion, or 20 cents a share, up from $982 million, or 14 cents a share, a year ago (all figures in U.S dollars).

Excluding one-time items, Cisco reported a pro forma profit of $1.5 billion, or 21 cents a share. That edged past the consensus forecast of analysts polled by Thomson First Call by a penny.

Revenues during the quarter jumped by 26 per cent, to $5.93 billion from $4.7 billion. Analysts were looking for only $5.89 billion.

The one area of concern was inventories. Access inventory suggests a summer slowdown for tech companies coping with a slow recovery in demand for telecom equipment.

Cisco's inventories rose to $1.2 billion by the end of the quarter from $873 million a year ago and from $1.12 billion in the previous quarter. The company makes the routers and switches that direct data across corporate networks and the Internet.

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. Fear of recovery's strength raised by Cisco, others

http://www.reuters.com/aitoolkit/aitArticle.jhtml?type=hotStocksNews&storyID=5937448

CHICAGO, Aug 11 (Reuters) - The resurgence in technology spending may be faltering, judging from cautious comments, rising inventories and a weaker-than-expected sales outlook at Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO.O: Quote, Profile, Research) , as well as bad news from other technology companies.

Cisco, the world's largest maker of equipment that directs Internet traffic, late Tuesday posted a record quarterly profit on strong sales, but investors fretted about Chief Executive John Chambers' comments about customer caution.

Shares of Cisco fell almost 9 percent in trading on INET before the market opened on Wednesday.

Also on Tuesday, National Semiconductor Corp. (NSM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , a maker of analog semiconductors, reversed its previous outlook by forecasting that sales in its current quarter would fall on lower- than-expected demand.

<snip>

"There is a major deceleration in technology spending, although (the growth is) still healthy," he added.

...more...

[UpInArms]

5. 9:34 EST markets are open

Dow 9,885.09 -59.58 (-0.60%)
Nasdaq 1,774.43 -34.27 (-1.89%)
S&P 500 1,070.79 -8.25 (-0.76%)
10-Yr Bond 4.306% +0.019

[UpInArms]

6. First Enron criminal trial postponed - again

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/national/9366034.htm?ERIGHTS=-1379763041515998886miami::[e-mail]&KRD_RM=1ijphmnjqjhohhhhhhhhippkpn|jason|N

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

HOUSTON - The first criminal trial involving former Enron Corp. executives has been delayed to allow defense attorneys to prepare for the government's intention to seek enhanced prison sentences.

U.S. District Judge Ewing Werlein on Tuesday postponed the Aug. 18 conspiracy trial of four former Merrill Lynch & Co. executives and two former midlevel Enron executives to Sept. 20 to allow more time for trial preparations, defense attorneys said.

The six defendants are accused of helping push through an alleged sham sale of electricity- producing Nigerian barges to the brokerage in 1999 to help the energy company appear to have met earnings targets.

Last month a special Enron grand jury in Houston handed up an expanded indictment against the six defendants, adding allegations that the deal led to $80 million in losses. The loss allegations, under federal sentencing guidelines, could mean longer prison sentences if the defendants are convicted.

Werlein ordered the delay in a conference call with prosecutors and defense attorneys.

<snip>

The Blakely decision included a footnote by Justice Antonin Scalia that federal sentencing guidelines were not at issue in the Washington state case. Dissenters argued that the ruling would undermine or even obliterate the 17-year-old federal system, which was created to increase uniformity in sentencing.

...more...

[UpInArms]

7. 9:50 EST numbers and blather

Dow 9,873.80 -70.87 (-0.71%)
Nasdaq 1,767.96 -40.74 (-2.25%)
S&P 500 1,069.30 -9.74 (-0.90%)
10-Yr Bond 4.311% +0.024

9:40AM: Indices open sharply lower, as indicated by futures...Nasdaq takes even more of a hit than expected, giving up all of yesterday's gains...Cisco (CSCO 18.45 -2.01) is the catalyst...even though they reported revenue and profits ahead of expectations for the July quarter, revenue guidance was slightly below expectations for the October quarter...that was enough to hammer the stock, which has taken techs down, which has taken the Nasdaq down, which has taken the entire market lower...

[htuttle]

10. So much for pathos.... (n/t)

[UpInArms]

8. Wealth management boosts UBS profit

http://www.nzz.ch/2004/08/11/english/page-synd5134378.html

Switzerland’s largest bank, UBS, put in a solid performance in the first half of the year, reporting a 60 per cent leap in net profit to SFr4.4 billion ($3.51 billion).

Rival Credit Suisse last week posted first-half net income of SFr3.3 billion.

But the second-quarter net profit at both banks was down on that reported in the first three months of the year.

UBS said on Tuesday that net profit for the period from January to March was up by 28 per cent over 2003 to SFr1.974 billion ($1.58 billion), with strong revenues from its wealth management business offsetting weaker trading income.

<snip>

New money

In its statement, UBS said that the second quarter had seen net new money of SFr16.9 billion, with SFr10.4 billion generated from wealth management clients worldwide.

“Halfway through 2004, we can see that the markets’ astonishing start to the year has settled into a more normal rhythm,” commented UBS chief executive Peter Wuffli.

“In that context, this was a good quarter for UBS, demonstrating the importance of having the world’s leading wealth management operation as a central part of our focused strategy,” he added.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. 10:02 numbers (DOW down 100)

Dow 9,844.16 -100.51 (-1.01%)
Nasdaq 1,761.00 -47.70 (-2.64%)
S&P 500 1,066.31 -12.73 (-1.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.294% +0.007

dollar rising

Last trade 88.96 Change +0.17 (+0.19%)

Last tick: 2004-08-11 09:33:22 ET
30-min delayed quote

[UpInArms]

12. adding blather

10:00AM: Market shows no sign of bounce...this reflects the underlying fragile nature of the market as much as a rational reaction to the Cisco numbers...after all, Cisco may have given conservative guidance and was generally upbeat on the conference call...the mid-point of guidance was only $70 million short of Wall Street expectations...Disney beat current quarter revenue estimates by almost $350 million and that had little impact...from an economic standpoint, Cisco's guidance is barely relevant, but considering valuations in the tech sector, it is an issue...

[JNelson6563]

13. This is uglier than I had feared

Will it come to "curbs in"? :shrug:

Julie

[54anickel]

14. Cisco Drops After Chambers Says Customers `Cautious'

I am having ISP problems (lucky to get this one in) and then we're taking off for the State Fair. Afraid I'm going to miss all of the action today. But I'll check up later tonight when we get home - assuming my ISP gets their act together.


http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aEtRdhoWRFGw&refer=us

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of Cisco Systems Inc., the world's biggest maker of computer-networking equipment, fell as much as 9.5 percent after Chief Executive Officer John Chambers forecast slowing sales growth and said customers are ``more cautious'' about the economy.

Analysts at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Merrill Lynch & Co. cut their ratings on the stock. San Jose, California-based Cisco yesterday reported fourth-quarter profit rose to a record $1.38 billion as sales increased 26 percent, meeting analyst estimates.

Chambers's comments fueled concern that demand may be tapering off and economic growth slowing, said David Eiswert, a technology analyst at Baltimore-based T. Rowe Price. Cisco's inventories are rising, squeezing margins and sparking worries that companies overestimated demand. Intel Corp. last month said its inventories were higher than forecast.

``The market is saying the economy is getting worse, and Cisco's not refuting it,'' Eiswert said. T. Rowe's funds hold 43.2 million Cisco shares. Some investors may sell technology stocks because of concerns about the economy, he said.

more...

On edit:

Damn that took over 15 minutes to post! Sorry for the dupe to UIA.
Have a great day everyone.:hi:

[UpInArms]

16. hope your ISP works later

54anickel!

I had ISP issues earlier this week - highly annoying :(

Have a Great Day at the Fair :hi:

[UpInArms]

15. IMF warns Turkey on debt, current account deficit

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=5928422

WASHINGTON, Aug 10 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday said macroeconomic conditions in Turkey are "at their best in decades", but warned the country still faces risks from its debt and current account deficit.

In an annual review of the Turkish economy, the IMF praised Ankara's recent fiscal controls and efforts to curb inflation.

The Washington-based lender said it expected Turkey to achieve its 12 percent inflation target for 2004, with real economic growth of at least 5 percent in the year.

Still, the IMF said Turkey remains vulnerable to outside shocks, and urged Ankara to pursue renewed reforms to cut its debt and narrow its current account deficit, which has swelled as a result of strong domestic demand.

"The size of the public debt, its short maturity and large foreign currency component make Turkey vulnerable to exchange rate and interest rate shocks," the fund said in a statement released in Washington.

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. 10:39 EST numbers and blather

Dow 9,868.64 -76.03 (-0.76%)
Nasdaq 1,766.85 -41.85 (-2.31%)
S&P 500 1,068.72 -10.32 (-0.96%)
10-Yr Bond 4.294% +0.007

10:30AM: Market shows little sign of a bounce...tech stocks account for only 16% of the S&P market cap (and going down) but the market is broadly lower...decliners lead advancers by about 5-to1, and tech stocks lead the most active lists...National Semiconductor (NSM 13.50 -2.20) is down after it warned on revenue as well, and hurting that sector...volume is up a bit on the Nasdaq, but still light on the NYSE...NYSE Adv/Dec 534/2323, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 376/ 2229

[gratuitous]

18. The Bush economic miracle continues!

Just you wait. The DJIA will break the magic 9,900 barrier, and then happy days will be here again.

[jmcgowanjm]

19. I never did understand stoxmrkt liking higher % rates

During that time, the Federal Reserve was in the process
of increasing interest rates from 3.5 percent at the end of
1927 all the way to 6 percent by August 1929, at a time
when U.S. inflation was virtually
zero.

The July jobs report was a screaming red flag
that we just ran thru.

[54anickel]

20. The Manchurian Investor (HAD to try and get this in here!)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BAADD6E44%2D621D%2D4296%2D882D%2D5EF9EF80D20F%7D&siteid=mktw

snip>

You're being brainwashed by what BusinessWeek calls the "Wall Street Hype Machine," a powerful cartel that spends $15 billion a year trying to turn you into a robotic junkie addicted to the business news ... which is indirectly controlled by America's big ad spenders in the financial industry.

Warning: If you're still buying their hype I hope you'll "wake up" soon because some respected market experts are now advising investors to go to cash, warning of an eminent collapse with the Dow testing its 2002 low around 7,500!

The Wall Street cartel (including its co-conspirators in the mutual fund, insurance and banking industries) are at work gaining absolute control of your brain by making you believe you cannot trust yourself to think independently without their advice and assistance.

Wall Street's secret brainwashing machine

So they're brainwashing you into becoming another one of the millions of Manchurian investors in America. How? Very simple: by confusing you with schizoid, double-bind messages. They tell you to think long-term about asset allocations while they are churning your funds 100 percent annually on the average.

They tell you to stay the course, be a patient, passive buy-and-hold investor. Then they spend $15 billion on advertising while at the same time making sure their high-paid guru analysts and portfolio managers get exposure as talking heads and sound-bite providers on the same networks, channels and publications they advertise on.

[KoKo]

23. "Zip-locks."

:D This is actually a great read and from a "mainstream" site. It's a little late on the advice though, but glad he made the effort to warn folks now that the cow is out of the barn. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

21. 10:58 EST numbers

Markets imitate Alfred E. Newman with a "What? Me Worry?" bounce

Dow 9,899.47 -45.20 (-0.45%)
Nasdaq 1,772.82 -35.88 (-1.98%)
S&P 500 1,071.04 -8.00 (-0.74%)
10-Yr Bond 4.287% +0.000

[UpInArms]

22. even better at 11:03 and some blather

Dow 9,914.13 -30.54 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq 1,777.32 -31.38 (-1.73%)
S&P 500 1,073.80 -5.24 (-0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.284% -0.003

11:00AM: Oil prices are lower today...weekly inventory data were lower than expected, and created a pop up in oil prices that hurt stocks...but then, there were reports that the Saudis would increase production if necessary, and prices dropped back, giving a boost to stocks...currently, the September crude oil futures contract is at $44.10 - 0.42...Cisco took over as a market influence for a while, but oil remains as a critical factor...NYSE Adv/Dec 676/2308, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 507/2225

signing off for a while - enjoy the ride!

[KoKo]

24. Noonday numbers and blather....

Dow 9,895.78 -48.89 (-0.49%)
Nasdaq 1,771.30 -37.40 (-2.07%)
S&P 500 1,071.17 -7.87 (-0.73%)
10-Yr Bond 4.291% +0.004
NYSE Volume 629,939,000
Nasdaq Volume 889,453,000

and the blather....

12:00PM: There have been two focal points for the market today: the Cisco (CSCO) earnings report and oil prices... The former was the object of everyone's interest in early trading as the increase in the networker's inventories and its uninspiring revenue guidance of flat to up 2.0% sequentially for fiscal Q1 (Oct) - a seasonally weak period - triggered concerns about end demand and the pace of earnings growth for the tech sector, as well as the broader market...

Cisco wasn't alone in that regard, though, as disappointing revenue and/or earnings guidance from the likes of National Semiconductor (NSM), Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC), Federated (FD), Brinker Intl. (EAT), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) compounded those concerns and set the market up for a decidedly negative start to the day... That was exactly the case, too, as the Nasdaq saw yesterday's 34-point gain wiped out in a matter of minutes when the opening bell rang... The S&P and Dow followed suit as they relinquished a substantial portion of yesterday's gains before buyers stepped up to the plate...

Their willingness to do so was prompted by a mid-morning announcement from Saudi Arabia that it had more than 1.3 mln barrels per day in spare capacity that could be used immediately to help stem the rising tide of oil prices... The timing of the announcement was fortuitous in that the weekly inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute showed a decline in inventories across the enrgy complex (i.e. crude, gasoline, and distillate); moreover, there were separate reports that the troubled Russian oil company Yukos had received a default notice on a $1.6 bln loan...

[UpInArms]

26. :) to the simul-posting quad!

:hi:

[KoKo]

29. Funny....I guess it's catching! (filling in here)

:D

[UpInArms]

25. 12:05 EST update and blather

Dow 9,899.61 -45.06 (-0.45%)
Nasdaq 1,771.66 -37.04 (-2.05%)
S&P 500 1,071.07 -7.97 (-0.74%)
10-Yr Bond 4.291% +0.004

12:00PM: There have been two focal points for the market today: the Cisco (CSCO) earnings report and oil prices... The former was the object of everyone's interest in early trading as the increase in the networker's inventories and its uninspiring revenue guidance of flat to up 2.0% sequentially for fiscal Q1 (Oct) - a seasonally weak period - triggered concerns about end demand and the pace of earnings growth for the tech sector, as well as the broader market...

Cisco wasn't alone in that regard, though, as disappointing revenue and/or earnings guidance from the likes of National Semiconductor (NSM), Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC), Federated (FD), Brinker Intl. (EAT), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) compounded those concerns and set the market up for a decidedly negative start to the day... That was exactly the case, too, as the Nasdaq saw yesterday's 34-point gain wiped out in a matter of minutes when the opening bell rang... The S&P and Dow followed suit as they relinquished a substantial portion of yesterday's gains before buyers stepped up to the plate...

Their willingness to do so was prompted by a mid-morning announcement from Saudi Arabia that it had more than 1.3 mln barrels per day in spare capacity that could be used immediately to help stem the rising tide of oil prices... The timing of the announcement was fortuitous in that the weekly inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute showed a decline in inventories across the enrgy complex (i.e. crude, gasoline, and distillate); moreover, there were separate reports that the troubled Russian oil company Yukos had received a default notice on a $1.6 bln loan...

[The Magistrate]

30. Dead Cats Bounce Less And Less, Ma'am

A determined down-hill run will be made at 9,500 throughout the rest of this month....

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[UpInArms]

27. Dollar backs off after Fed-induced rally

Market hesitates after another round from Alan Greenspan

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BC9380A40-02EB-44A4-A50B-6505C9B899DC%7D&siteid=google&dist=google

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) - The dollar on Wednesday lost ground against key currency rivals, losing steam in European and then U.S. trade as the market pondered Federal Reserve optimism on the economy.

While the dollar rallied after Tuesday's Fed rate increase and prediction that a recent downturn would prove short-lived, at least one analyst predicted the move higher would not last.

"The market fell for Greenspan's upbeat economic view before, in the July 20 monetary policy update," said Steve Barrow, a Bear Stearns currency analyst. "We doubt that it will be fooled for a second time," said Barrow.

In U.S. trade Wednesday, the greenback was mixed. The dollar was last down 0.2 percent against the yen, at 111.10 yen. The U.S. currency was up 0.2 percent versus the euro, with Europe's common currency at $1.2207. The dollar was off 0.1 percent against the British pound, with sterling at $1.8275.

The dollar rally Tuesday extended into overnight Asian trade after the Fed hiked its target lending rate to 1.50 percent and repeated its message that rate increases can proceed at a "measured" pace. It said higher oil prices had hurt the economy but pictured renewed economic growth in the second half of the year. See full story.

"The Fed's statement was unexpectedly bullish about the U.S. economy and raised speculation about another rate hike in September," said Ryohei Muramatsu, senior currenty trader at Commerzbank AG in Tokyo. "But I don't think that the Fed will raise rates next month because of the soaring oil prices and the resulting dent in consumer spending."

...more...

[KoKo]

28. Wrapup with Mike Hartman (for Ozy)

http://www.financialsense.com/

PROMISES, PROMISES

As I skim through the headlines, it’s difficult to find encouraging developments in the markets today. If you’re a stock investor, it’s certainly positive to see the broad indices higher ahead of comments from the Federal Reserve, but this could simply be a temporary bounce from oversold conditions. The most positive economic news came from the Labor Department when they reported second quarter U.S. productivity gains coming in stronger than expected at an annual rate of 2.9%, while economists anticipated a gain of 2.1%. Though the number was stronger than expected, it is a decline from the 3.7% annualized gain reported for the first quarter.

A more ominous development from the productivity report was the 1.9% annualized gain in unit labor costs. This is the fastest rate of increase in the last two years and if the trend persists, it will clearly put additional pressure on corporate earnings moving forward. There are only two ways for companies to reduce the pressure from growing labor costs; they either produce and sell more units or they reduce labor costs by laying-off more workers. We have seen continued declines in consumer demand and now inventories are beginning to rise as the economy weakens. In light of the horrendous labor report from last Friday, this doesn’t look good for future hiring. Today Reuters reported chain store sales growth slowing with data released from Redbook Research. “Sales at major retailers increased by 2.4% on a year over year basis for the week ended August 7, down from the preceding week’s 3.9% pace…” The slower sales growth was attributed to the absence of child tax credits that were handed out last year. It looks like we are going to need additional tax cuts, increased federal spending, and another round of lower interest rates to jump start the economy once again.

I said there were only two ways to correct the problem of rising labor costs, but it looks like General Motors has found another way to improve the bottom line. The Reuters headline reads, “GM Jumpstarts Plant in Northeastern China.” The article goes on to say, “GM and its local partners are spending $3 billion over the next three years to raise annual capacity to 1.3 million units in a country it expects to become its number two market in 2004.” Foreign auto makers plan to invest roughly $13 billion by the end of the decade to triple capacity to around six million cars per year. China continues to build roads as its citizens demonstrate their preference of driving cars rather than ride bicycles to the jobs they inherit from the U.S. and other countries with higher labor costs. Automakers would not put out this much capital unless they see the growing demand in China as a continuing trend.

[realFedUp]

34. GM Jumpstarts Plant in Northeastern China

snip
“GM Jumpstarts Plant in Northeastern China.” The article goes on to say, “GM and its local partners are spending $3 billion over the next three years to raise annual capacity to 1.3 million units in a country it expects to become its number two market in 2004.”

So, GM plans on building what kind of cars for China?
gas-guzzlers, hydrogen fuel or hybrid? SUV's?
China still needs oil imported in, right? Howabout
shipping all the hummers over there and get better fueled
cars here....

[Maeve]

31. 1:30 check-in

Dow 9,909.05 -35.62 (-0.36%)
Nasdaq 1,775.80 -32.90 (-1.82%)
S&P 500 1,072.96 -6.08 (-0.56%)
10-Yr Bond 4.289% +0.002


Major bathroom renovations at Chez Maeve yesterday and today--fly-by posting!

[JNelson6563]

32. Hope the renovation goes well, at least better than Street

It looks to me like the PPT has effectively get the plummet at bay.

2:24


Dow 9,882.13 -62.54 (-0.63%)
Nasdaq 1,770.94 -37.76 (-2.09%)
S&P 500 1,070.19 -8.85 (-0.82%)
10-Yr Bond 4.274% -0.013

Julie

[UpInArms]

33. U.S. July budget deficit rises to $69B

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B056B6EDA%2DE24B%2D4543%2D839C%2DE8FF523656CE%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The U.S. federal deficit widened by 28 percent to $69.2 billion in July from $54.2 billion a year ago, the Treasury Department reported Wednesday.

The deficit was larger than the $66 billion expected by the Congressional Budget Office. Outlays were about $3 billion more than anticipated.

In July, receipts totaled $134.4 billion while outlays totaled $203.6 billion, up from $123.5 billion in receipts and $177.8 billion in spending in July 2003.

So far in fiscal 2004, receipts have totaled $1.53 trillion, up 3.9 percent from $1.48 trillion in 2003. Outlays totaled $1.93 trillion, up 7.2 percent from $1.8 trillion in 2003. With two months to go, the fiscal year-to- date deficit has totaled $395.8 billion, the most ever in nominal terms.

For all of 2004, the CBO has been expecting a budget deficit of $422 billion, up from $374 billion in 2003. The nonpartisan agency will update its forecast on Sept. 7. Late last month, the White House budget office said it forecast a deficit of $445 billion this year.

So far this year, individual income tax receipts of $657 billion are running 3 percent below 2003's pace. Corporate income tax receipts of $145 billion are 45 percent ahead of 2003's pace.

...more...

[KoKo]

37. hmmm...individual tax receipts down (unemployment) Corporate is up..

(war profit?):shrug:

[UpInArms]

39. Treasury Budget Report Numbers

Aug 11 2:00 PM
Treasury Budget Jul
reported -69.2B
briefiing.com anticipated -$66.0B
market anticipated -$60.5B
last report -$54.2B

Treasury Budget

Importance (A-F): This release merits a D.
Source: U.S. Treasury Department.
Release Time: 14:00 ET, about the third week of the month for the prior month.
Raw Data Available At: http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/index.html.

The monthly Treasury budget data follow strong seasonal patterns which produce huge month-to-month fluctuations in the deficit. These fluctuations tell us little about long term budget trends. To the extent that the market analyses the monthly Treasury data, the focus is on year/year changes in receipts and outlays, since the data are not seasonally adjusted. Only in April, the most important month for tax inflows to the Treasury, does the market pay any attention to this report. The data can be predicted with reasonable accuracy by using daily data in the Daily Treasury Statement.

More in-depth information is available from Briefing.com, including "live" intra-day market analysis of the U.S. stock and bond markets, technology stocks, economic releases, earnings reports, and day trading highlights.

[UpInArms]

43. Federal deficit hits record $395.8B

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/apbiz_story.asp?category=1310&slug=Federal%20Deficit

WASHINGTON -- With two months still to go in the government's budget year, the federal deficit has hit a record $395.8 billion.

The monthly accounting of spending and revenue showed that the July deficit totaled $69.2 billion, up 27.5 percent from the $54.2 billion shortfall in July 2003, the Treasury Department said Wednesday.

The $395.8 billion deficit through the first 10 months of the government's fiscal year was up 22 percent from the same period a year earlier and now has passed the record deficit of $374.3 billion for all of last year.

The Bush administration is projecting that the deficit for all of the 2004 budget year, which ends Sept. 30, will be $445 billion. This year will mark the third consecutive budget deficit after four straight years of surpluses that reflected the economic boom of the 1990s.

<snip>

The administration's revised forecast of a $445 billion deficit for the entire year, issued July 30, was reduced from the $521 billion budget gap it had estimated for 2004 in early February.

The Congressional Budget Office, citing stronger revenue growth than expected, has also revised its 2004 deficit forecast down to $422 billion, from the $477 billion deficit it estimated at the beginning of this year.

The new monthly report showed that through the first 10 months of the budget year, government revenues totaled $1.53 trillion, including $134.4 billion collected in July. The 10-month total represents 4 percent more than was collected during the same period in 2003.

During the last 10 months, the government has spent $1.93 trillion, including outlays of $203.6 billion in July. The 10-month total represents a 7.2 percent increase over spending in 2003.

...more...

[UpInArms]

35. 2:45 EST update

Dow 9,899.46 -45.21 (-0.45%)
Nasdaq 1,775.01 -33.69 (-1.86%)
S&P 500 1,071.77 -7.27 (-0.67%)
10-Yr Bond 4.268% -0.019

2:00PM: Oil has moved back to a slight gain on the day of 6 cents...traders are very much focused on it, but the S&P hasn't reacted much...the improvement from the lows of the day in the early morning can not now be ascribed to oil...NYSE Adv/Dec 1062/2142, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 829/2181

1:30PM: Indices are improving a bit over time, with a modest uptrend since the sharply lower open...tomorrow morning, July retail sales data will be released...expectations are for a 1.1% increase, helped by a likely big jump in auto sales...excluding auto sales, the increase is expected to be 0.4%...the market may be more sensitive to this release than usual, given the uncertainty about consumer spending trends and the soft numbers in June...NYSE Adv/Dec 1093/2087, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 861/2120

[KoKo]

38. I wonder if "auto sales" projected to be up means US based auto sales

or world wide? Could skew whether it's our consumer spending or a combination. I would think that might make a difference, but who knows.

[UpInArms]

40. I believe the auto sales are to be sales within the US only

here are the reports due tomorrow (all times EST):

Aug 12 8:30 AM
Business Inventories Jun
-
briefing.com anticipates 0.8%
market anticipates 0.6%
last report 0.4%
revised from -

Aug 12 8:30 AM
Export Prices ex-ag. Jul
-
briefing.com anticpates NA
market anticipates NA
last report -0.1%
revised from -

Aug 12 8:30 AM
Import Prices ex-oil Jul
-
briefing.com anticipates NA
market anticipates NA
last report 0.0%
revised from -

Aug 12 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 08/07
-
briefing.com anticipates 340K
market anticipates 340K
last report 336K
revised from -

Aug 12 8:30 AM
Retail Sales Jul
-
briefing.com anticipates 1.2%
market anticipates 1.1%
last report -1.1%
revised from -

Aug 12 8:30 AM
Retail Sales ex-auto Jul
-
briefing.com anticipates 0.5%
market anticipates 0.4%
last report -0.2%
revised from -

[KoKo]

46. Thanks, UIA, this is interesting..and I'm comforted to know that "auto

sales" abroad aren't calculated into the numbers... :-)'s

[UpInArms]

41. 3:00 EST update (markets love deficits!)

Dow 9,933.31 -11.36 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,781.18 -27.52 (-1.52%)
S&P 500 1,074.51 -4.53 (-0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 4.269% -0.018

15:01 ET
Dow -17, Nasdaq -28, S&P -4.65


Minor buy side interest surfaces over the last hour leaving the averages slightly above their morning recovery highs. Strength remains evident in the biotech, drug, airline sectors with more modest gains in healthcare, health provider, consumer and utility. Tech sectors have edged off their lows but continue to cling to heavy losses. Volume has slowed from the morning pace with internals still firmly in the bearish camp. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1140/2099. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 888/2157.

[UpInArms]

42. 3:36 EST numbers (DOW almost all better!) and great blather

Dow 9,938.40 -6.27 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,784.37 -24.33 (-1.35%)
S&P 500 1,076.19 -2.85 (-0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 4.277% -0.010

3:30PM: Bounce in the market is not ascribed to any specific news event, and oil prices settled up 28 cents, so traders are calling the move technical in nature, and many are expressing skepticism about the sustainability of the move...NYSE Adv/Dec 1274/1958, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1032/2024

[UpInArms]

44. Mortgage applications decline

http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20040811-010316-8900r.htm

Washington, DC, Aug. 11 (UPI) -- The Mortgage Bankers Association of Washington said Wednesday its seasonally adjusted market index eased for the week ending Aug. 6.

Mortgage applications decline



Washington, DC, Aug. 11 (UPI) -- The Mortgage Bankers Association of Washington said Wednesday its seasonally adjusted market index eased for the week ending Aug. 6.

The MBA said its seasonally adjusted market index, a measure of mortgage activity, dipped for the week ending Aug. 6 by 0.7 percent to 616.1 from the previous week's 620.4.

<snip>

The group's purchase index, a gauge of new loan requests for home purchases, which had been the strong component of previous reports as home buyers rushed to avoid higher rates, fell last week for the first time in three weeks by 2.7 percent to 440.0 from 452.0 in the prior week.

...a bit more at link...

[UpInArms]

45. Closing Numbers and blather

Dow 9,938.32 -6.35 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,782.42 -26.28 (-1.45%)
S&P 500 1,075.79 -3.25 (-0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.277% -0.010

briefing.com

Close: Stocks opened sharply lower across the board in response to a slightly disappointing revenue forecast from Cisco (CSCO 18.29 -2.17) in their earnings report last night...in addition, National Semiconductor (NSM 13.48 -2.22) warned that revenue this quarter would be less than Wall Street expected...technology stocks understandably took a dive right at the open, and ended sharply lower although well off their lows...the SOX semiconductor index ended down 5.2%...the broader market, however, bounced back solidly late in the day...

the Dow, which was down as much as 103 points in the early morning, even went positive in the final hour before finishing with just a small loss...the S&P 500 index ended with a loss of 0.3%, much less than the 1.5% hit the Nasdaq took...not that bad considering the big gain yesterday and the fact that oil prices closed up 28 cents today...biotech and drug stocks led the charge back, supported by beverages and a modest gain in financials...tech stocks continue to underperform the market as they adapt to the realization that growth will be extremely good, but not fantastic...the S&P is down 3.3% on the year, the Nasdaq 11.2%...volume was moderate...

tomorrow brings the July retail sales numbers and earnings from Wal-Mart and Dell after the close...

ino.com

The NASDAQ Composite index closed lower on Wednesday however, a short covering rally ahead of the close tempered some of today's loss. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ Composite index extends this summer's decline, a test of the 38% retracement level of the 2003-04 rally crossing at 1694.22 is possible later this year. Closes above the 10- day moving average crossing at 1833.65 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

The September S&P 500 index posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidates some of last Friday's huge decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. If September extends last week's decline, a test of weekly support crossing at 1049.20 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1085.90 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

The Dow closed slightly lower on Wednesday due to light profit taking as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends last week's decline, a test of weekly support crossing at 9585 is possible later this year. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,047 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the Dow.