Bush, Kerry close in North Carolina, poll says

[Tarheelhombre]

http://www.newsobserver.com/news/story/1527546p-7702817c.html

In what may be the closest presidential race in the state since 1992, Democrat John Kerry is within 3 percentage points of President Bush in a new poll.
Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney hold a lead of 48 percent to 45 percent over Kerry and his running mate, Sen. John Edwards, according to a poll conducted this week for The News & Observer, WRAL-TV and WUNC radio.

The poll, taken about two weeks after the Democratic National Convention, shows a slight gain of 2 percentage points for Kerry since the poll a month ago, when he trailed Bush by 5 points. The percentage of voters who say Edwards' presence on the ticket makes them more likely to vote for the Democrats also rose 2 points, to 27 percent.

The margin of error is 4 percentage points.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. Edwards was a good pick

:)

[JohnKleeb]

2. muy muy

he'll help in the rural part of Va big time too. Imagine if they win here and NC. Jesus Christ that would be great.

[Tarheelhombre]

13. Remember, Gallup had Bush ahead by about 14% last month in North Carolina

While, every other poll has shown that Kerry is within 3 - 5%. Folks, Gallup is heretical.

[Ilsa]

23. I gotta wonder if the folks at Gallup at wondering about

their own polling methodology when they are so far out of line compared to all the other polls.

[Zynx]

3. If we can take NC and VA, we have won the election.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. The fact that they're close is a good sign

a very good sign.

[Zynx]

5. They're so close that the slightest national move in our favor could take

them.

[JohnKleeb]

7. and people say Kerry needs to change his stragety

Telling you, he may win in a big landslide, hes a great closer not the best starter there is but he gets the job done.

[JohnKleeb]

6. I think it could happen

Virginia more so than NC though, NC really doesnt have any socially liberal hotbeds like Virginia does, NoVA is that part of Va that is socially liberal but more economically moderate, now if Kerry and Edwards campaign in southwest virginia, I am talking Roanoke, etc, Edwards has a good way with these people, and a lot of them are vets especially in the town of Bedford home to many dead on D-Day.

[Zynx]

8. I think Kerry should park Edwards in the following states:

MI and PA(just to make sure they are solid), OH, WV, VA, NC, TN. See what he can do bringing those last five states I mentioned over to us.

[JohnKleeb]

21. great idea

[wildeyed]

18. Raleigh is pretty liberal

b/c all the universities located nearby, especially UNC-Chapel Hill. Asheville is also liberal, know as the San Francisco of the South.

[Lex]

33. Durham is very liberal, Raleigh is so-so

But Greensboro and Winston and High Point are quite conservative.

[GainesT1958]

25. Sure we do...

The Triangle area (Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill)--right now Kerry leads Dub there by about a dozen!:bounce:

I think it's not only doable here, but extremely possible here as well. I keep seeing Kerry stickers on cars around here--and New Hanover County (Wilmington) is not exactly a hotbed of liberalism itself. I keep telling folks that as of July 6 (when Kerry announced he'd chosen Edwards) North Carolina officially entered the realm of "battleground state". And, well, looks like it's happening. Kerry's people are spending lots of money--including ad buys--and time here, and Kerry's coming to Charlotte on the 20th. One thing about it, the national ticket suuuuure won't be a "drag" on the state ticket this year!:D

We're gonna WIN this thing!:7

:kick:

B-)

[struggle4progress]

31. Waccha mean NC got no liberal hotbeds? Ain't ya never bin to Durham? eom

[Lex]

34. Tell 'em. You can't swing a cat and not hit an old hippie

or a wiccan in Durham!

[struggle4progress]

39. A Durhamite! You should consider voting in this poll:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=170x1162

[mom cat]

11. So much for the myth of the Solid South!

[lancdem]

15. Damn right

Even Clinton didn't win those states.

[Zynx]

16. He should have tried for them. He was close.

[goforit]

9. With all the textile job loses in NC I'm shocked Kerry isn't 20 pts. ahead

Edwards/Kerry better bust their behind down there!!!

[Zynx]

10. While textiles are big down there, they're not 20 points big.

[Doosh]

12. if it's this close in NC, then the gallup poll is bunk

because Bush is in deep $hit if he trails anywhere in the solid south.

[Tarheelhombre]

24. North Carolina is actually a rather moderate state

Democrats usually control state and local government.

[struggle4progress]

37. But our Congressional delegation is about 50-50. And this last ...

... session, we have a perfect 50-50 split in the State House, so we ended up with co-speakers and committee co-chairs. The wingnut Republicans were livid (thinking, of course, that a 50-50 split should mean Republican control) and have been infighting, which makes me beam with joy.

[leftchick]

14. I vote on a touchscreen in NC...

as do Thousands of others. I thought I would vote early and avoid them but they have been installed at all of the early voting precincts too. :(

[GainesT1958]

26. Ony five counties are using them for Nov. 2, though...

The largest, unfortunately, being Guilford (Greensboro and High Point). So, hopefully, Diebold won't have the impact it may have elsewhere.

B-)

[struggle4progress]

36. Be sure your elected officials and the local BOE knows you're unhappy.

Durham is still using the optical scanners: they are more reliable than the touchscreens AND leave a paper trail. And if Durham tries to change, I'll be out there screaming.

[Norbert]

17. shrub took this state handily in 2000

The times they are a-changin. :bounce:

[Jane Eyre]

19. One more time - Why Kerry/Edwards could win in NC

North Carolina was the only state targeted by the Clinton campaign in 1992 that they did not win - BUT, the Democrats lost it by less than 1000 votes. That is 10 votes per county.

Another thing - the Democrats handily sweep the statewide offices, and currently hold all but one of those.

In 2000, Gore did not campaign at all in North Carolina. In fact, the Democratic governor was pretty quick to hustle him out of the state when the presidential debates were held in Winston Salem. Despite that fact, Gore only lost in Mecklenburg county (largest county in NC where Charlotte is located) by 3 points. Democrats can win big in the urban areas with strong GOTV and voter education pushes.

Voters who push the button for the straight Democratic ticket in many counties, including Mecklenburg, must also seperately push the button for their presidential choice. This is a huge voter education issue, and many presidential votes are lost because Democrats who vote the straight ticket do not realize this.

There has been no strong Democratic presence in many, if not most, of the rural counties for a while. We may not be able to win a majority in those counties, but we can improve our margins and strengthen the local parties in the process. The job losses in the rural areas are real. So is the influx of Latino immigrants, whose political power is on the increase. There are also a lot of Northern transplants in the state, who may have voted Republican up North but are appalled at the hold the Christian right has on the Republican party here.

Then there is Edwards on the ticket - 'nuff said!!

[wildeyed]

20. Thanks Jane

I did not realize Mecklenburg was so close last time.

Why do we make voters who vote the straight ticket vote again for Prez? Sounds like another butterfly ballot waiting to happen. I will add it to my list of things to worry about late at night.

[struggle4progress]

35. Don't lose sleep: just TELL everybody about it. eom

[unfrigginreal]

22. Poll internals for those interested

http://www.newsobserver.com/content/politics/polls/prespoll_aug.pdf

----------
We may be in even better shape than the top line figures indicate. The 2 areas of the state where Bush has the largest lead, Greensboro and West, also have the largest number of undecideds. Mecklenburg(Charlotte), which we only lost by 3 pts. in 2000, is showing Bush up 49 - 42. If you look at all of the reasons that Jane mentioned above, and add 1 more a) there is no Republican former mayor of Charlotte(Vinroot) on the statewide ballot this election, then at the least the Charlotte number should tighten significantly and there's a pretty decent chance we'll carry Mecklenburg altogether.

[Lex]

28. Oh, that's excellent news.

.
It would be so excellent to have Kerry take the state in November.

And I truly believe that Erskine Bowles will keep Edwards' old Senate seat Democratic. He's still up by roughly 10 points!

http://www.heraldsun.com/state/6-511983.html (Bowles lead discussed in this article.)

[leesa]

27. What kind of voting systems are in place there?

[Lex]

29. In my county, the whole county has

those Optiscan machines.

http://www.co.durham.nc.us/departments/elec/PDF/HOW_TO_VOTE-DURHAM-BOE-2004.pdf

[Endangered Specie]

30. A newer poll out shows a 6 point lead for *

[Lex]

32. A link to this info would be much appreciated. Thanks! n/t

[DU GrovelBot]

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