Janklow crash affected state's politics

[Khephra]

Janklow crash affected state's politics

Some believe Republicans divided by deadly incident, but others disagree

By Chet Brokaw

Associated Press Writer


PIERRE - A year after Bill Janklow sped through a stop sign and killed a motorcyclist, some of the political consequences are obvious. But others are less clear or yet to be determined.

The most obvious political result of the crash and Janklow's resignation from Congress is Democrat Stephanie Herseth's rise to prominence in South Dakota politics. She won a June 1 special election to fill the remaining seven months in Janklow's term in the U.S. House.

However, opinions vary on how the aftermath of the tragic crash will affect Herseth's rematch with Republican Larry Diedrich in November and the battle between Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle and his Republican challenger, former Rep. John Thune.

snip...

''The truth of the story is that the Janklow debacle has politically almost ruined the conservative Republican movement and has given tremendous wings to the liberal side of our party,'' Napoli said. ''Many conservatives who were loyal Janklow people - because he was such a conservative in many ways - have walked away. They're gone.''

http://www.aberdeennews.com/mld/americannews/news/state/9413355.htm

[jpgray]

1. Can't believe that human stain only gets 100 days

He killed somebody!

[Gregorian]

4. And Chong got NINE MONTHS (plus $109,000 fine)

This Janklow thing has had me angry the whole time.

(I swear, the republicans are guilty of the decline of health of a lot of Americans.)

On the plus side- it appears what goes around comes around. Let's just keep praying and hoping.

Let's also hope my post become a bit funnier. I need some humor.

[tom_paine]

5. Just more of the Sovietization of Imperial Amerika

Janklow was a Party Member.

Be of good cheer. In 20 years a Party Member such as he won't even see the inside of a courtroom.

Chong belongs to the great mass of Non-Party Members.

As such, they will be prosecuted to the full extant that the prosecution can help the Imperial Party.

God, I remember when America was properly spelled with a 'c' and was free, not this pale shadow trailing off into Totalitarian Tyranny.

[gatlingforme]

2. What Janklow is (or was) to the Republican party in SD, Ex Gov

George Ryan was to Illinois. Why does it take a serious offense to make people see that the Republicans are not what they say they are.

[happyslug]

3. No it brought to the surface the internal split in the GOP

Between the old "Progressive" wing and the "Neo-Con" Wing. North of the Mason-Dixon line most of Rural America is Republican, but progressive Republican. They want new roads, they want better education, they want social protections (These used to be called "Internal Improvements" covering both physical improvements, Highways, and Social Improvements, Social Security). Given this support for these Internal Improvements most Northern Rural Republicans are more like Moderate Democrats than Neo-conservatives that dominate the GOP today.

These are the People the GOP has kept in their pocket by screaming "Gun Control" (Something all of these Rural GOPers oppose). These Rural GOPers also complain of the "Social" Agenda of the Democrats, but it is the Democratic Social Agenda presented to them by the GOP, not the DEMOCRATS. McCain is this type of Republican (Through he is to the Right of most of these Northern Rural Republicans).

This is the problem with the GOP in North Dakota, you have an issue that turns off these Moderate GOPers from the Right wing agenda, turn them off so much that they are voting Democratic. In the rest of the Rural North, the two issue I Mentioned above is used by the GOP to keep these Rural GOPers voting GOP.

One last comment, in the early 1960s most of the Rural South was Democratic, it started to turn GOP in 1964 (when the Civil Rights act was passed) and continued to turn GOP till the Reagan years (When it became almost completely GOP). The same in occurring in the Rural North, many Rural GOPers are being turned off from the GOP and its insistence on Tax Cuts over Internal Improvements. These people WANT Jobs for their youth, they want to retain their family farm, in effect they want what the Democrats are offering them and the Neo-cons are NOT.

These Rural GOPers are GOPers for their family have been GOPers since the Civil War. People do NOT change unless they have a good reason to do so (Read the first part of the Declaration of Independence which cites this rule). Northern Rural Americans are in the position when a change is necessary. The National GOP is NOT giving them what they want (and need) but the Democrats are (Thus why the Democrats have won in such a rural State as South Dakota).

Now you will have some people who will NOT change, but over the next 20 years I see the Rural North becoming more and more Democratic (Just like the Rural South become more and more GOP from 1964-1985). When these Northern Rural moderate Republicans join the Democrats they will come in as moderate Democrats (who oppose Gun Control and "Special Rights" for Minorities but support Equal Rights). Remember it was the Rural North that fought the US Civil War and demanded that one result of that war would be the end of Slavery. It was the Rural North that that was the heart of the "Free Silver" and "Populist" movement of the late 1800s. It was these Rural Republicans that gave FDR his overwhelming Victory in 1936 (and supported Truman in 1948). More Republicans voted for the 1964 Civil Rights Act than did Democrats based on what these Rural Northern Republicans wanted (A lot of Rural Southern Democrats voted against the Act and later switched to the GOP as the GOP embraced Racism).

Remember the Present Coalition of the GOP consist of the following:
1. Rural Southerns (These tend to be Fundamentalist)
2. Suburban Upper Middle Class Businessmen (These tend to be the true heart of the GOP, "Business of America is Business").
3. Moderate Suburbanites who disagree with the GOP on Social Issues but tend to vote their Pocket book, i.e. tax cuts are good for them.
4. Rural Northerns, who want the GOP to provide them the services and internal improvements the GOP has provided to them since the Civil War.

You are NOT going to separate 1 and 2 from the grip of the GOP, these groups are to entrenched with the GOP leadership, but groups 3 and 4 will (and have) jumped the GOP ship in the pass. I do not see 3 leaving the GOP for long (Pocket Book issues always trump Social Issues) but group 4, the pocket book issues are to great for them to stay GOP as long as the GOP supports "Tax Cuts" over internal Improvements.

In a nutshell I see this change happening throughout the Rural North, a fundamental change as the Rural North ends up supporting the Democrats rather than the GOP. This is what you are seeing in South Dakota, the slow switch of these rural Northern voters to the Democrats. You will see them vote Democratic first on the State Level (Governorship, Senators and Congressmen) and than on the National Level (The Presidency) and finally at the Local Level (State Senate and the state House and than the local County Offices and finally the local Township. This is how the south went from Democratic to GOP (Through George Wallace's 1968 Campaign also was a factor in the switch).

Remember the key to getting elected is to get more votes than your opponent. To get such a majority your Coalition must outnumber the other side's. The Rural Northern Voters is ripe to switch and if we are careful they will switch and make the Democrats the Majority party for the next 20 years (You can not predict beyond 40 years, look at Reagan in 1980, JFK in 1960 and FDR in 1932). Coalitions are want wins elections and you get someone to switch his party by showing them that they are better off with you than with the other side. The Democrats can do that with Rural Northern Voters and should try to convert them to good Democrats.

[Frances]

6. Great analysis

I think Kerry picked Edwards for the reasons you outline in your post.

When Kerry is president, he will need to send Edwards to these states to campaign to get Dems in Congress so that Congress can do what the people, not agribusiness and the other corporations, want.

[Demeter]

7. Slow Learners

Like GWB too many are reluctant to admit even to themselves that they made a mistake or were lied to. This is something generational, I hope. I hope that Boomers STILL Question Authority and read between the lines. The trouble is, too much of the country has been drained of its savvy population, which congregates in cities and suburbs that have some hope of fulfilling the American Dream (although that opportunity is nearly gone.

[happyslug]

8. That has NOT been my experience

Most NORTHERN Rural people support economic reforms. They tend to like Social Security and the New Deal. They like the idea of paved Roads and electricity.

Please Note I am ignoring Rural Southerns (who tend to be more Conservative than Rural Northerns). The people in play are RURAL NORTHERN MODERATE REPUBLICANS not Rural Southerns or Suburbanites.

Such Rural Northern GOPers tend to be deeply connected to their Communities (both through their Churches and other social.Civil organizations). This is also why their are still Republicans, most of their Friends are still Republicans. Their are Republican because their father and mothers were Republicans. In my home state of Pennsylvania many people in the 1930s would call these Pinchot Republicans. Gifford Pinchot was the First head of the Forestry Service (appointed by TR, he invented the Concept of preserving the Forest for future generations from 1898-1910). As the Governor of Pennsylvania during the Great Depression he gladly joined in with the New Deal even to the extent of expanding on the New Deal to get the Farmer out of the mud (This at a time where most Republicans opposed the New Deal). Pinchot stayed a Republican but embraced the whole concept of internal improvements that was the heart of the New Deal.

Many Rural GOPers are like him, economic Progressives through moderate on Social issues (But support Unions, and the rights of minorities). The best recent example is the Rails to Trails movement, while you have people who oppose the Rails to Trails (Such Neo-Cons exist everywhere) most rural GOPers SUPPORT them as part of improving their community. These later GOPers are the people in play for the Democrats which if made Democrats will make the Democratic the majority until the GOP moderates a lot.


For more on Gifford Pinchot see:
http://www.dep.state.pa.us/dep/PA_Env-Her/pinchot_bio.htm