Oil tops $47 a barrel

[leftchick]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040818.wOilam0818/BNStory/Business/

<snip>
Crude oil prices reached a record high of $47.04 (U.S.) a barrel in pre-market trading Wednesday in New York on lingering concerns about supply from Iraq and Russia.

At 8:45 a.m. EDT, the price for September delivery of light sweet crude slipped back to $46.95 per barrel — just above its $46.75-per-barrel closing price Tuesday.

<snip>
Meanwhile, traders were also anxious about the oil supply in Russia, where oil giant Yukos's fortunes took a turn for the worse after a court rejected the company's attempt to suspend government efforts to collect $3.4 billion in back taxes Tuesday.

Yukos pumps about 1.7 million barrels a day and its legal troubles have raised concerns that productivity could suffer and the company could be forced into bankruptcy.

[wicket]

1. Anyone know why...

...oil prices are sky high but gas prices have been going down? Does it take a bit of time before the squeeze is felt at the pump?

[hatrack]

2. These are oil futures prices - bets on what prices will be months from now

Actual inventories of refined gasoline (as opposed to crude) ready to be shipped to gas stations are quite large, so these futures prices don't affect the gasoline price you pay today.

[wicket]

3. Oh ok, that makes a lot more sense

So we can expect to get hit hard in the coming months? :scared:

[hatrack]

4. More than likely - don't expect too big a drop in gas after Labor Day

Prices aren't likely to go down very much, and you might want to think about adding to your house's insulation, given what natural gas may be going for this winter.

[chuck555]

9. The futures market,

Imagine you had a large truck fleet. In order to avoid a huge upswing in fuel costs you would buy a contract today. That contract would guarantee a known price in the future.

[chuck555]

5. You are quite right.

If only we could stock up.

[Geo55]

6. Here's an article

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5725894

[Strelnikov_]

15. Peak Oil Has Arrived

Most of the articles I have read indicate that the Saudi's are the 'swing' producer to meet increased demand. Yet, they seem to have been unable to increase production as promised.

From the article:

"OPEC has vowed to produce more to bring prices down, but only Saudi Arabia can pump faster and even the Saudis have little extra capacity left. Despite reports in April that the Saudis assured the Bush White House of lower oil prices in time for the November election, they have so far been unable to deliver. "

Also, note how the graph shows a dip in gasoline inventories through winter, probably due to fuel oil production during the fall/winter months. I am afraid that going into this winter we will be looking at $3.00/gal.+ gas.

[Yavin4]

19. Peak Oil - An Unforseen Byproduct of Globalization

In the greedy rush to take advantage of $1 an hour labor in China and $5,000/yr programmers in India, these global corps. overlooked the cost of fuel. I'd wager that many of these new plants being built in China and India are not very fuel efficient because this global growth is in an unregulated environment.

You see, in the U.S. and Europe, we regulate these facilities so that they use fuel efficiently. It costs more to these corps. in the short-term, but in the long-term, it lowers costs on all of us.

[Geo55]

23. Good point

"You see, in the U.S. and Europe, we regulate these facilities so that they use fuel efficiently. It costs more to these corps. in the short-term, but in the long-term, it lowers costs on all of us."

Big Busines just adjusts their costs in their prices.....until the real doo doo hits the rotating cooling device.

[Geo55]

22. "we will be looking at $3.00/gal.+ gas"

Wouldn't surprise me....bitter sweet...Bushco's SA buddies won't be able to bail him out...but we are going to be hurting....perhaps the bitter pill of a fuel driven recession will cause alternatives to begin to be developed with more seriousness.

Looks like it will be the first bump in shocks to come.
The Monster SUV's will start looking real stupid from now on in , Detroit had better get with the program.

[0007]

7. Who do you think has been propping up the market?

The same folks who sez "We've turned the conner" the economy is looking stronger and stronger with each passing day.

Trust me it won't be long before you'll see $2.35 at the pump and going up higher the next day. One can only hold things down for so long!

[MaryH]

8. Our prices jumped back up this morning

I paid $1.85 - they had dropped a little bit last week. I paid almost $30 for 16 gallons. I know I don't drive as much as I used to.

I think this is only going to get worse.

[Geo55]

10. Here's a little research ,

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1284577,00.html

you might as well accept @ $2 a gallon as the norm from now on.
Prices could come down if recession takes hold.
But, we DO need those ego boosting SUV's , now don't we.

[Warpy]

11. The spike in futures should hit us starting next month

If it doesn't, we'll know the oil companies are trying to fiddle the election by keeping prices artificially low. They've had windfall profits for many months, so they've got a cushion against losing revenue for a while.

They think by lulling the rubes into thinking Chicken George is keeping those prices low, they'll get them to vote the little bastard back in.

In any case, prices will spike after the election, so hold on to your hats and enjoy the drive now.

[jmcgowanjm]

17. This bifurcation of Crude/petrol pricing has never happened before

$45 x .05 =$2.25 + taxes, say .35= $2.60.

$2.60 should be the avg price of petrol in USA now.

oligarchs are purposely holding gas $ down.

or demand is collapsing.

When the Weekly Demand/Supply comes out today,
he said hopefully, one or the other reason
will be applicable.

[SkipNewarkDE]

12. Gas jumped by $0.10 this week

Gas prices jumped by nearly ten cents in my neck of the woods in the past two days. Usually it goes up by a few pennies each day, but this was a solid dime jump.

[aneerkoinos]

13. $47,16 / b n/t

[hadrons]

14. gas prices steady in NYC ... $2.20 - $2.40 depending on your poison

[jmcgowanjm]

16. USWeekly Demand/Supply delayed

You can't just not release a report of this mag w/o
giving a reason.

We may hit $50 today if this (USWeekly Demand/Supply)
report is not released.

$47.35/bbl

Cantarell declines:
The implications of this upcoming decline are tremendous to
the world. This field produces half of what Ghawar does and
it won't be doing that much longer.  The effect on the
energy supply will be felt and there is no way for that not
to happen.  On Aug. 3, 2004, the OPEC president stated
that OPEC has no more spare capacity.  They are pumping
all out and can't satisfy the demand for oil.  If fields like
Cantarell begin declining, the problem of supplying the
world with oil will only get worse.

http://home.entouch.net/dmd/cantarell.htm

[hatrack]

21. "WHEN fields like Cantarell begin declining" perhaps more appropriate

This is going to be an interesting few decades.

[NickB79]

18. Thank goodness Dad finally got the fuel drums filled on the farm

He filled up with 750 gallons of gasoline and 750 gallons of diesel last week. He was lucky enough to get the gasoline at $1.77/gal, so if prices do shoot up over $2 again he should be saving a good deal of money. He typically has to refill the barrels twice a year because of all the fuel the tractors burn up working the fields.

[Strelnikov_]

20. That Sounds Like A Lot Of Fuel, But Consider This

Ah-nold commutes 40 miles one-way in his Hummer, 4 days/week, at say 10 mpg.

That comes to 1,664 gal. of go-juice per year.

And unlike your Dad, he produced nothing but hot-air.

[Eurobabe]

24. But its ok because Reuters is reporting that

"Economies Not Yet Dented by Oil Prices"

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749&e=4&u=/nm/20040818/bs_nm/economy_oil_dc

<sarcasm off now>

Why do I get the feeling that they are greasin' us before Kerry wins, and then they're gonna SLAM us? $4/gal come November 3rd.??