Close Presidential Race in Ohio: Kerry 48%, Bush 46% among likely voters

[struggle4progress]

August 19, 2004
by David W. Moore
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey of voters in Ohio finds Democratic candidate John Kerry with a 2-point lead over President George W. Bush among likely voters, and a 10-point lead among registered voters. When independent candidate Ralph Nader is included on the ballot, Kerry's lead remains at two points among likely voters, but declines a point among registered voters. The survey also shows that Ohio voters are slightly more pessimistic than voters nationally about the job situation they face, but slightly more optimistic about how well the war is going in Iraq.

Among likely voters, the poll, conducted Aug. 13-15, shows Kerry with a slight lead over Bush 48% to 46%, compared with a 51% to 45% lead measured July 19-22. The changes are within the margins of error of the two polls, suggesting little movement in a very close race.

Among registered voters, Kerry now leads by 52% to 42%, compared with a 49% to 44% lead in July.
<snip>

Nader's candidacy appears to have little effect on the contest. When Nader is mentioned in the question, Kerry maintains the two-point advantage over Bush among likely voters -- 47% to 45%, with 4% for Nader. Among registered voters, Kerry gets 50%, Bush 41%, and Nader 5%.
<snip>

http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=12763

[King of New Orleans]

1. Galllup is still crap

Their translations from registered to likely voter has been odd to say the least this year.

[nodictators]

16. Gallup PURGED 3 times as many who favored Kerry as favored Bush

A little bit of arithmetic shows that Gallup Purged 95 registered poll respondents who favored Kerry and only 31 who favored Bush.

Gallup has given us a redux of Florida 2000, where 3 times as many Gore ballots statewide were uncounted as were Bush ballots.

Gallup pulled a less extreme version of the same trick in their "no Bounce for Kerry" poll taken on July 30-31, just after the Democratic Convention .

Gallup's "likely voter" methodology has been around for 50 years. Sometimes it may give a better estimate of the election outcome, but in the two polls cited here they have significant outliers in the comparative purge rates between Kerry and Bush.

[shawmut]

2. Looks like Kerry got a nice Swift Vet bounce in Ohio

:bounce:

[alittlelark]

3. Uh, what's w/ the 4% for Nader?

DO ANY of you know more than ONE person in your 'circle' that will vote for NADER. 3+ years ago I knew 8, now I know 1.......hello....am I just completely outawhacK?

[Pachamama]

8. Your ratio is higher than mine....I know about 14 people who voted for

Nader in 2000....not one single one of them has any intent to vote for Nader....1 is voting Green.....

So, that's 20-1-1.....That is 1 of 22 2000 Nader voters, not a very good record....I think the polls are bs...I think Kerry is winning by atleast 10+% and they aren't reporting it truthfully....Nader is losing badly by having .001% of the vote.....I do however know some 2000 Bush supporters who are staying home and not voting or are voting Libertarian.....Don't know one single 2000 Gore Voter who isn't voting for Kerry.....hmmmmmm.....me thinks me smells - FEAR: by the Repukes......:scared:

[alittlelark]

11. Any poll showing over 2% for Nader is deeply suspicious.

I know of NO ONE who can substantiate support - "I See DEAD Polls" as in non-corroborated 'shows' of NADER sects.


Yeah, Right.....

[The_Casual_Observer]

4. If gallop shows Kerry ahead, than he must actually be 20 pts ahead.

[fearnobush]

5. Fuck the Gallup GOP pollsters people. It's likely voters and

Gallop had Dean behind Bu$h in late Dec, just after the Saddam nab. by only 5 pts. Likely voters only poll. CNN never reported it, nor did any of the media whores. They only reported the reg vote of other polls that showed bush 19 pts ahead of dean. Now all of the sudden, Gallop has no problem posting their likely voter polls so long as they favor their God - Bu$h.

Stick with the most accurate public pollster Zogby. He has Kerry ahead in Ohio by 6 points.

[struggle4progress]

7. If you click the link, you'll get both likely and registered data. eom

[bluestateguy]

6. Ohio is winnable and Bush can't win without it

Hell, with Ohio, we could even let Jeb steal Florida again and still win.

[TruthIsAll]

9. THIS IS CLOSE?

Among registered voters, Kerry now leads by 52% to 42%, compared with a 49% to 44% lead in July.

THIS IS CLOSE?

EVEN IF IT'S 48-46, KERRY GETS 2/3 UNDECIDED VOTES, GIVING HIM 52-48 LEAD.

* TOAST

[andino]

10. It ALL about the turn out...

[llmart]

12. Go Ohio!

Go for Kerry! Bush has been nothing but a disastrous, miserable failure for Ohioans.

Nader's a non-factor - I don't care what the Gallup polls show.

[0rganism]

13. When bush leads Kerry by 2 points, it's a commanding lead....

When Kerry leads bush by 2, it's a dead heat.

Gotta do whatever we can to minimize bush's freefall. Makes it easier to rig the election doncha know?

[leftchick]

15. "I Like" Candy Crowely said.....

Kerry's 7 point lead in some poll last week was a "slight bump"..

:puke:

[Zynx]

14. They skewed LVs to get a closer number.

Gallup's likely voter model is total bullshit. I saw some internals on their last national poll where Kerry lead among women by the same margin Bush lead among men and they had Bush ahead by three points which is ridiculous because women have a significantly higher turnout rate than men.

[yellowcanine]

17. Some "academics" are supposedly questioning Gallup's LV model

As well they should. One usually expects a somewhat different number from registered voters - but it should not be this great. I thought "likely voter" models aren't supposed to be used this far out from the election anyway.

[Maeve]

18. And Ohio counties just got some bad economic news

Due to a screw-up in accounting, millions of federal aid dollars were over-spent and the counties will have to make this money back up with layoffs and program cut-backs.

Sorry, but the link is a paid registration one; Columbus Dispatch :eyes:
http://www.dispatch.com/news-story.php?story=dispatch/2004/08/19/20040819-A1-01.html
Ohio counties are bracing for massive layoffs and cuts in programs for the poor as state officials scramble to fix an accounting error that caused millions in federal aid to be overspent.

The Ohio Department of Job and Family Services is to announce this morning its plan to fix the problem it has acknowledged creating. It also will provide county agencies with revised figures on how much money they will get this year for welfare, health care and other assistance.

"We may be looking at half our staff being laid off," said Michael Paxton, director of the Washington County Department of Job and Family Services in Marietta.

[Ghetto_Boy]

19. Wait until the debates. Kerry will crush Bush.