Bush Has Nationwide Lead Over Kerry

[VaLabor]

Bush Has Nationwide Lead Over Kerry

(CPOD) Aug. 23, 2004 – George W. Bush holds the upper hand in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by InsiderAdvantage. 46 per cent of respondents would vote for the Republican incumbent, while 43 per cent would support Democratic nominee John Kerry.

One per cent of respondents would vote for independent candidate Ralph Nader, two per cent would back another candidate, and eight per cent remain undecided. The election is scheduled for Nov. 2.

Support for Bush increased by four per cent since June, while backing for Kerry went up by three per cent.

MORE: http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3864

[physioex]

1. Read this..Nuf said...

Source: InsiderAdvantage
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 500 registered American voters, conducted on Aug. 13 and Aug. 14, 2004. Margin of error is 4 per cent.

[CaTeacher]

4. within the margin of error.

Even so--I always keep in mind that there are "lies, dammed lies, and statistics"

Don't trust the polls--especially ones taken this far ahead of the election.

[physioex]

7. They only called up 500 people...

Geeee...Now that is a "real poll" isn't it...hahahahahahahaha

[CaTeacher]

9. you would think

that "professional" pollsters could do a better job (snark). Unless they are purposefully trying to favor a certain candidate....hmmm....but I would never accuse anyone of anything....

[arwalden]

44. About As Accurate As A Presidential Poll In The DU Lounge

[scared]

53. If this race is close enough in the polls..........

The republicans will steal it again. There is no doubt about that. They have an agenda that they have just begun, and they do not intend to give that up.

[Bucky]

42. Actually it's a 4.38% margin of error. And they could have a bad sampling.

On the other hand, this poll was done after the Swifty attack. There's not really been a very strong counter to the Swifty smear, nor even much of a defense against it. Expect to see a few more polls out that show Bush up and Kerry down.


(and please don't shoot the messenger)

[BrooklynRider]

49. Nationwide means nothing - State by state matters - Gore Won!

[Jim Sagle]

2. Note that this same poll had w up 42-40 in June.

So it's biased toward w.

[0007]

34. Extremely dorkish!

[drdtroit]

3. This is not even worth acknowledging n/t

[alittlelark]

5. Uh, yeah, I'm sweating in my socks......

.....not! Puhlease - stop posting these ludicrous 'polls' as 'panic-bait'.

We know where we stand.:D

[rumguy]

6. Four percent margin of error

This poll means nothing as Kerry is ahead in all the swing states.

[WindRavenX]

13. bingo

Kerry also has quite a nice lead in the thing that matters- electoral votes.

[flordehinojos]

8. the cockroaches and the slimiest slugs must all be celebrating.

how truly, truly, sad! :(

[Skittles]

10. ridiculous poll

nt

[jeff30997]

11. Did they only poll peoples from the Bible Belt or what?

[JackDragna]

12. Before you decry it as ridiculous..

..bear in mind that people use polls with a similar number of respondents that indicate Kerry to be in the lead.

[Teaser]

46. No, people use multiple polls with

similar differences in numbers to show Kerry in the lead.

A large number of polls showing insignificant lead can demonstrate a significant lead, using a technique called a meta analysis.

[neonplaque]

14. Hahahaha... um, sorry... okay.

Never heard of this outfit. Who are they, were are they from, and how did their polling work out for the 2000 election?

[DeadHead67]

15. Who the hell is 'InsiderAdvantage' a rethug front group?

And I have to agree, ENOUGH WITH THE NEGATIVE 'PANIC POLLS'!!!! There is FAR MORE anti-Bush sentiment than the Gore/Bush fight. Kerry has raised record breaking amounts of money(that in itself tells you how important this election is to A LOT OF PEOPLE) Money is a VERY important indicator. The economy has stalled, the war grows worse every day, and the Bush connected scandals are breakin' out like mushrooms on horse shit. :kick:

[Sinistrous]

32. Re: InsiderAdvantage:

http://dir.jayde.com/profile10054358-insideradvantage.html

"insideradvantage.Com

About Insideradvantage.Com
InsiderAdvantageCom was founded in December 1999 by two men with enormous experience in the government and business arenas: Matt Towery, former Georgia state Representative and campaign chairman for U S Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, and Pierre Howard, former Lieutenant Governor of Georgia After launching Internet service in April 2000 and an aggressive series of acquisitions and joint ventures, InsiderAdvantage.

<snip>

InsiderAdvantageCom provides value-added services to: Large corporations in industries significantly impacted by government activities -- industries such as insurance, financial services, telecommunications, energy, construction, transportation, health care, and technology Businesses engaged in government contract work E-government entrepreneurs requiring insight into the business of government Public relations firms and government affairs groups that need Web-based content developed and delivered to their clients.
"

Towery is, of course, a rethug; Howard is or was a Dem.

[PATRICK]

41. Anything from Georgia GOP

appears slickly fixed at this point. No more need be said about the source which is doing only minor service for Bush proceeding to his Convention.

Which brings up why Georgia, with its 100% touchscreen voting is totally lost to the Dems. And it has nothing to do with opinion polls. Gingrich supports this fraud 100% too, IMHO. It was supposed to be his jumping point to the Presidency and don't think he has given up the idea. Hagel of Nebraska is another won starting right at the outset with ties to the machines that elected him.

So, at the end, what polls will fall on the sword for Bush as one did in trying to predict Chavez's loss in Venezuela on polling day?

In evaluating polls I would make that question a top priority. How far would a poll go to pimp up a desperation climb in the polls for Bush? I think the GOP bullying of exit poll data(rendered suspect, ironically, by GOP fraud) is going to make election night interesting.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

50. Gingrich campaign chair. BWAAAAAA

!

[Proud2BAmurkin]

51. It's GINGRICH'S polling org and Chimp can't even beat MOE

lol

[GOPAgainstGW]

16. Polls Are Worthless

The polls for this 2004 Presidential election are worthless, because there are so many Republicans voting against Bush-Cheney, like ME!

It will be like 92. Not one poll said Clinton was going to kick Papa Bush's butt 370/168 in the electoral vote. Even James Carville said the night before the 92 election they thought they were going to lose because of the Christian/Conversative vote under-poll.

Clinton won the 92 election not because of the Democratic Party vote, but because of the # of Republicans voting against Bush, that is impossible to get a good poll handle on.

Same thing is going to happen in Nov 2004. You mark my word.

The GOP knows Kerry-Edwards is up 50-70 electoral votes right now. That is why they are doing all this stupid stuff like the O'Neill SBVT fraud, which some people are going to be indicted over, and all their other cheap 3rd grade crap. GOP is totally desperate and just trying anything.

[Ms. Clio]

17. Hey there, welcome aboard!

Great to hear from you, so glad you are voting against Bush!

:toast:

:party:

:bounce:

[ima_sinnic]

33. welcome to DU, GOPAgainstGW!!

thanks for your insights!
:yourock:

[DemMother]

18. Do a simple google before posting nonsense--it is a rethug front...

I've posted about this crew before. Newt Gingrich is on their board of advisors.

and this from Townhall--just for a taste of their leanings: written by Matthew Towery, the founder of Insider Advantage--(there is another column where he paints himself as more moderate, amusingly--at least to him-- using the phrase "semi-environmentalist."

"So in remembering Reagan -- personally my most beloved president -- let me discuss some present-day numbers that make for interesting comparisons to the golden years of Reagan (even though they weren't golden for everyone).

A recent InsiderAdvantage poll, conducted with our survey partners at The Marketing Workshop, asked, "Would you favor the Republicans or the Democrats controlling Congress after this year's election?"

The results:
Republicans 46 percent
Democrats 44 percent
Neither 4 percent
Don't know 6 percent"

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/matttowery/printmt20040608.shtml

Towery was also a campaign manager for Newt Gingrich. There is also Mack Mattingly, who strangely enough, lost to Zell Miller. And Pierre Howard, who is a Democrat--but Towery is the front man. He gets three out of five wingnut stars from Pandagon. And is a terrible writer.

NOT ALL POLLS ARE EQUAL and we shouldn't treat them as such.
Sorry for the caps but I am so sick and tired of this kind of alarmist crap, posted with no research whatsoever.

[soup]

23. Thank you, DemMother.

I was going to see what I could find on this outfit. You just saved me some research time.

[GOPAgainstGW]

26. Great Post!!

Hey great post. Thanks! There are so many front operations out there it is hard to keep them all straight.

[Dancing_Dave]

19. It is high time for Kerry to reconsider his positions and strategy

Especially his absurd position on the Iraq War. We aren't going to get a bunch of "allies" to do the fighting to preserve our oil empire there--they get voted out by their own people when they do something that flagrantly stupid and unethical! Just look what happened in Spain. Tony Blair won't last through another national election in the U.K either.

[Norbert]

20. Who is InsiderAdvantage.

I'm surprised CPOD cites them.

Also 500 respondents. Not a very large sampling.

[DemMother]

22. check my post just above--Newt Gingrich is on their board

[Piperay]

21. Nationwide polls are worthless

the election is 50 State elections with the Electorial Vote being what counts.

[alittlelark]

24. All hail King George..............

....no, really, he will be a kinder, more sensative dictator.



Really, he will!

[Swamp Rat]

25. This poll is poo poo

:hurts:

[Pachamama]

27. Yep, just more of the Poo Poo that this administration "dumps" out on

the American public....or "shoveled" is more like it...

Hi Swamp'r! See your up late too! :hi:

I'm just catching up on the "poo poo" of politics....:)

[Swamp Rat]

28. Hey Pachamama!

Yep, I'm up VERY late... and I've got to pick up my dad from the airport tomorrow (he's coming back from SF) after I go buy books. I start class on Tuesday, so I guess my posts will begin to drop off for while.

How's the Pachababies and Pachadaddy?

[Pachamama]

29. We are well....but I'm exhausted and have to go to bed right now....

Must...sleep....

Lately, things have gotten a bit busy....I'm suddenly feeling this sense of urgency knowing that we are 10 weeks away from the election. This coming week of course is going to be nauseating with the media focused on the RNC in NYC....I'm looking forward to hearing about the massive protests....and Manhattanites telling the RNC and GOP where to stick it....

Tell Papa Rat that Pachamama says hi! :) What's the new class on Tuesday? How to fry Republicans and make them at least somewhat edible without being poisoned? :evilgrin:

[Swamp Rat]

30. HAHAHA! No classes on cannibalism, sad to say.

Though, "how to de-flesh Republicans in a debate" would be a worthy subject. I'm taking three courses: an anthro field course, qualitative methodology, and the third is a study of urbanization and population - the city as a social and cultural environment and social problems of cities.

Now that you mentioned that we have just 10 weeks left, I suppose I will not let up much posting at DU... nite nite! :hi:

edit: I'm sleeeepy :boring:

[0rganism]

31. This is the sort of poll that will be used to justify vote fraud in Nov.

There are plenty of reliable polls showing Sen. Kerry with leads, both national and state electoral count, but this is the kind that'll get plenty of airplay in the runup to the election theft.

[Claire Beth]

35. They only put this poll out....

to discourage Kerry supporters and motivate Bush supporters. I don't believe for a minute!!! I LIVE in the bible belt and I see a lot more bumper stickers and yard signs for Kerry than I do for dipwad.

:kick:

[sendero]

36. I took my own poll...

... "Is InsiderAdvantage a legitimate polling organization?"

NO ***************************************** 97%
YES ** 3%

[are_we_united_yet]

37. Hi. I don't care. Thanks.

[leesa]

38. Bullshit.

Look around you. Listen to what people are saying.

[jeanmarc]

39. it IS getting closer and it's creeping me out

http://www.electoral-vote.com

California being in play is horrible. I don't think it to be in play but it being this close is worrisome.

This negative campaign by Bush is working. I sure hope the Kerry folks have something up their sleeve or know enough to guarantee that FEC win.

[David__77]

43. California is not "in play."

The "SurveyUSA" poll you are oliquely referencing is run by a right-wing operative that posts on "Free Republic." Their results get better closer to an election. They had the recall winning by well over 2-to-1 last year in CA, when it only passed 55-45.

[PATRICK]

40. They don't link to the pollster

This is just one poll thrown out there in the obvious strategy of setting the stage for Bush's GOP Convention- in order to prevent gloom. Expect more unchallenged trivia. Telephone polls of 500 people with 5 breakdowns trying to push people not to be undecided tell you nothing no matter how much science or track record is touted.

Gallup was on C-Span clearly on the defensive. They fall back on their track record and are about as mystifying and mystical as stock brokers with their "science". Once they think themselves within the margin of error(in a close election THEY can't lose, remember) they make their smug
analysis with impunity.

The underlying softness of polls, the mushiness, the firmness of the data, is purposely ignored or they would make a lot less money. Listening to a Zogby operator questioning a responder one could hear the pressure placed on people to make some decision, building up empathy between the questioner and questioned- which even if unintentional is hardly great for "science". More and more phone calls have to be made to get any response and those who hang up are angrily voting for whom? the anger of this period therefore is not being factored well since that is an invisible, poll destroying contradiction. They also must dodge and hedge around the the difference between the telephone and the ballot box.

Like terrorists or fortune tellers, they need only to succeed to be taken seriously. The proper way to gage your chances and progress is
a lot less simplified and processed. The art of politics here would suggest that the Bush voter is soft or soft on facts, while his opposition has hardened and grown(including angry GOP faithful) way beyond 2000. The hapless swing voters are indeed the battleground, yet by their definition a pile of mush that will likely be swayed by Kerry's overall dominance, Bush's inescapable record and weakness into breaking big for Kerry.

Most of the polls favoring Bush, on the other hand, by their methodology are starting from the "closeness" of 2000 in their presumptions and samples to project a forecast and assumption to carry them to their own company victory come November. Like any good fortune teller(unless enslaved to Bush) they will sneakily shift with the winds. For election purposes, amazing contrary to my past opinions, their only solid purpose is in exit polls where their study of the past can catch irregularities. Their insistence on prediction has unfortunately undermined their value as fact checkers for validation.
In fact, they have surrendered more of their real talents to subtly tell their customers what they want to hear and maintain the illusion of value, and in fact poison the exit polls as well.

[Zynx]

45. 500 voters? What a crackpot poll. I could talk to more than that.

[Hornito]

47. Whadabunchacrap! Insider Advantage? Who the fuck are they?

Instead, lets look at the MSNBC poll last week, where after over a quarter million responses (!), Kerry was ahead with 60%!.

STOP THE PRESSES!! I just conducted a poll, and it says Insider Advantage is full of shit, and is a fascist-run Repuglian front organization. Spread the news!!

[Teaser]

48. I know why this poll has such a bad moe.

They kept adding cohorts to their sample until they happened, by statistical chance, to find a cohort that skewed it into a Bush lead. Then they stopped, worried that the next cohort would regress to the true population mean.

Hence the bizarrely small sample and the weird MOE.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

52. It's GINGRICH'S polling org and Chimp can't even beat MOE

lol