STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 24 August

[ozymandius]

Tuesday August 24, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 149
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 70
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 256 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 310 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 523
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1006
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 23, 2004

Dow... 10,073.05 -37.09 (-0.37%)
Nasdaq... 1,838.70 +0.68 (+0.04%)
S&P 500... 1,095.68 -2.67 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.28% +0.05 (+1.13%)
Gold future... 412.80 -2.60 (-0.63%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Jim Willie

Alcoholics Anonymous View of US Financials

In a previous essay on the subject in June, “US Financials as an Addiction System,” several important components to an addiction system were argued. The critical drug is debt, via credit supplied and encouraged by the Federal Reserve. The critical activity is gambling and financial speculation, from a smorgasbord menu of choices. The monetary drug dealer is the Fed Chairman Greenspan himself. The great enablers of credit are the Asian Central Banks who share their trade surpluses and consistently intervene on behalf of a USDollar rescue. The most prominent gambling tables are stocks and bonds in the financial markets, with futures and options for more experienced gamblers. Promotion is essential. The street drug pushers are the brokerage houses, whose critical printed advertisement revenue with the press & media assures a favorable message. The tell-tale physical symptoms of addiction, delirium tremens come as stock & bond bubbles and busts. Volatility warns of trouble ahead. No addiction system exists without a foundation of denial, based here upon deceptive USGovt statistical reporting and expert defense of overvaluation. Actual teaching of the public, indoctrination to be certain, has propaganda disseminated by the Fed Chairman and Governors, echoed by the financial pundits. A coherent argument can be made that large portions of the US Economy exhibit clear signs of parallel addiction manifestation. Our national indulgence has reached crisis proportions.

-cut-

INPATIENT ADDICTION CRITERIA

Parents frequently submit their children to clinical testing and interviews in order to determine whether alcohol or drug abuse warrants professional treatment. So do family members for their relatives during interventions. Answer YES to a moderate number of the following questions, and one must conclude addiction is an integral part of behavior, whether substance abuse or debt abuse. Answer YES to a majority, and a severe addiction problem is in our midst. The financial structures with its attendant credit supplied, debt incurred, and risky investment opportunities will provide the backdrop from which to reply to criterion queries. In what follows, “IT” pertains to debt in a general sense, purchase transaction debt, debt securities as vehicles, interest rates as a valve, and diverse index values on a casino tally scorecard. No 12-Step Recovery Program will be offered. Be sure to know that genuine recovery will involve debt reduction, bankruptcy, recession (probably depression), restructure of bank lending practices, stock & bond market reform, central bank reform, new education on debt, and a tumultuous monetary crisis centered on the USDollar.

-cut-

Has its pursuit resulted in negligence of routine duties and general system maintenance?

Interest payments on the federal debt have risen as a percentage of the federal budget on a consistent basis for over 30 years. In the last few years, borrowing costs have actually been manageable, since rates have come down after the stock bust in 2000. Budget surpluses have been laid waste by financial market change of winds, as much as by squandering with tax reform which resulted in negligible promised business expansion and job growth. Higher interest rates will change that bright ray of federal debt management quickly. However, tie in fixed govt expenses known as entitlements, such as pension costs (military, agencies, Congress, judicial, etc), and you have reduced government discretionary spending. Education has suffered. Extensions to unemployment insurance have been abandoned. Assistance to states on mandated security enhancements has not been provided. Available funds for multitudes of purposes have been squeezed. To be sure, entitlement and interest costs are kept down through lies and deception. Despite this, just like with a walking alcoholic or drug addict, budgets are strained for repair of the home and family car. An alcoholic’s car routinely has unrepaired dents and bruises.

-cut-

Our banking leaders have encouraged debt abuse to the extreme. Furthermore, our hedonistic society fully embraces immediate gratification, and abuses credit to obtain today’s satisfaction and thrill. Chairman Greenspan has unquestionably fostered a speculative mindset which includes debt abuse, has let loose the dogs of mortgage finance, and has relied upon Manhattan crowbars to placate the wealthy with profitable carry trade games. In no way can the gear be put into reverse. He has attempted to redefine legitimate wealth generation and to minimize international debt dependence, a liar to Economic Mother Nature. He is bound to continue the low-cost supply of credit, much like a parent must permit steady raids of the family liquor cabinet. Just as a wayward reckless son might wield a gun at his parents to force his way to the Jack Daniels or Jim Beam, the US Economy extorts easy money from the Fed and its collusive central bankers. Implicitly, our economy threatens massive job loss, declines in housing prices, a rash of bankruptcies, and systemic financial seizures, if credit is interrupted. The Federal Reserve has its hands tied. It cannot raise rates to any neutral range any more than a parent can cut off his threatening son.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Good morning all.

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

My time will be very limited here this week as my shop move-out date is only six days away. Job? Still waiting on a call...

Thanks to everyone who participates here. At the end of the day, it always makes for great reading.

Have a wonderful day!

Ozy :hi:

[sadiesworld]

3. kick

falling off page one

[trogdor]

4. love today's toon!

[UpInArms]

5. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.07 Change +0.01 (+0.01%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1093320073-9e32d306-04159

Forex - Dollar rangebound at midday Tokyo; holds gains from oil price retreat

TOKYO (AFX) - The dollar was trading in a narrow range against major currencies after rolling up gains overnight partly on an easing of oil prices from record-high levels, dealers said

"Higher oil prices are seen as deterring demand in the US, so the recent easing of prices is favorable to the US unit," said Junichi Kumagai, chief researcher at NLI Research Institute

Crude futures fell back around 46 usd a barrel in New York as Iraqi exports returned to previous levels after damaged pipelines were repaired

At 12:15 pm (0315 GMT), the dollar stood at 109.92 yen, up slightly from 109.82 yen in early Sydney and 109.81 in late New York trade. The dollar/yen trade ranged from 109.76-109.97 Tokyo

The euro stood at 1.2135 usd, marginally lower from 1.2141 in early Sydney and from 1.2140 in late New York. The euro traded in a range of 1.2132- 1.2150 against the dollar in Tokyo

The euro was trading at 133.39 yen after moving in a range of 133.23-133.58

Looking ahead, Kumagai said the most closely watched figure is US jobs data next week. It follows indicators such as July personal spending in due tomorrow and April-June economic growth data on Friday

...more...

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/AFX/singleNew.asp?menu=latestnews&pv_noticia=MTFH84320_2004-08-24_10-36-15_L24676112

Europe gold softens as cheaper oil boosts dollar

LONDON, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Gold corrected lower in Europe on Tuesday, dragged down by a stronger dollar and slipping oil prices, traders and analysts said.

By 1017 GMT, spot gold <XAU=> eased to $406.55/407.05 from $409.00/ 409.75 at Monday's close in New York.

The dollar extended the previous day's gains against the euro on the back of falling oil prices and two Federal Reserve officials' upbeat comments on the U.S. economy.

Dallas Fed President Robert McTeer said in an interview that U.S. economic growth was self-sustaining and "not terribly fragile", while Fed Governor Ben Bernanke said a possible slowdown effect would not derail expansion.

...more...

Report due today:

Aug 24 10:00 AM
Existing Home Sales Jul
report -
briefing.com anticipates 6.85M
market anticipates 6.81M
last report 6.95M

I won't be around long this morning - back in the afternoon - so we'll just have to see where this one goes :D

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

6. Fed official downplays rising prices

http://www.boston.com/business/markets/articles/2004/08/24/fed_official_downplays_rising_prices/

WASHINGTON --Rising oil prices will weigh on economic growth, but the increases so far will not derail the expansion and need not fuel troubling inflation, Federal Reserve Board Governor Ben Bernanke said yesterday.

"There's going to be a little bit of a slowdown effect . . . but at the current levels, anyway, I think it won't derail what looks like a self-sustaining expansion at this point," Bernanke said in an interview with the public television program Nightly Business Report.

Bernanke described current US monetary policy, with overnight borrowing costs at 1.5 percent and the central bank on a "measured" course of rate increases, as "very accommodative" and said risks appeared balanced between the potential for a pickup in inflation and slowing growth.

When Fed officials raised interest rates a quarter-percentage point just under two weeks ago, they said the economy appeared poised for an acceleration after a soft patch brought about in good measure by high energy prices.

<snip>

"If inflation is low and stable and people believe it will be low and stable, an increase in oil prices will create, of course, a transitory burst in inflation," Bernanke said. "But as long as it doesn't get embedded into wage demands and prices, it won't necessarily create a longer-term increase in inflation."

...more...

[54anickel]

8. Dang, I wasted too much time on the lyrics again!

[UpInArms]

10. I still want to read your lyrics

they are always so appropriate and make me lol!

[54anickel]

7. Oil Won't Derail U.S. Expansion -Bernanke

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749&e=6&u=/nm/20040824/bs_nm/economy_fed_bernanke_dc

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Rising oil prices will weigh on U.S. economic growth, but the increases seen so far will not derail the expansion and need not fuel a troubling inflation, Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Board Governor Ben Bernanke said on Monday.


"There's going to be a little bit of a slowdown effect ... but at the current levels, anyway, I think it won't derail what looks like a self-sustaining expansion at this point," Bernanke said in an interview with the public television program Nightly Business Report.


Bernanke described current U.S. monetary policy, with overnight borrowing costs at 1.5 percent and the central bank on a "measured" course of rate increases, as "very accommodative" and said risks appeared balanced between the potential for a pickup in inflation and slowing growth.


"I think the risks are balanced ... and that therefore our policy seems to me to be quite appropriate," he said.


When Fed officials raised interest rates a quarter-percentage point just under two weeks ago, they said the economy appeared poised for an acceleration after a soft patch brought about in good measure by high energy prices.

snip>

"If inflation is low and stable and people believe it will be low and stable, an increase in oil prices will create, of course, a transitory burst in inflation," Bernanke said. "But as long as it doesn't get embedded into wage demands and prices, it won't necessarily create a longer-term increase in inflation."


:eyes:See, ya just gotta believe! Guess what we'll be reading about ALOT in the near future....inflation is low and stable.

I believe for every drop in CPI, Alan's nose grows
I believe that somewhere in the BLS the bullshit flows
I believe for each report that goes astray Greenspin will come to show the way
I believe, I believe

[UpInArms]

12. my mantra during the RayGun years

was:

All you who believe in Tinkerbell, clap your hands!

[54anickel]

16. That's what all of that thunderous applause was back then!

:evilgrin:

[KoKo]

38. You are a great "lyric" writer, "54", I always enjoy when you go off on

those flights! Write 'em down and put them out. Make some $$'s off it..

Everyone's writing books these days, at least yours would give us some needed humor..:D

[54anickel]

9. Crude Oil Futures Slide for a Third Day as Iraq Raises Exports

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=axmRmBf6PnLE&refer=us

Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures fell for a third day as Iraq, the sixth-largest U.S. supplier, raised exports for the first time in two weeks, easing concern about supply shortages.

Oil flows from southern Iraq to Persian Gulf export terminals have doubled from a week ago, while some oil also began flowing from northern fields through a pipeline to Turkey on the weekend, according to local shipping agents. Prices rose to a record $49.40 a barrel in New York on Friday amid concern OPEC may not be able to make up for a major supply shortfall.

``With oil coming out of both sides of Iraq, the supply situation seems to be back to normal,'' said Robert Montefusco, a broker at Sucden (U.K.) Ltd. in London. Prices failed to reach the ``psychological'' level of $50 and ``speculators wouldn't want to bet on it again yet, which is healthy for the market.''

snip>

``With Iraq's exports increasing and concerns over Yukos supply waning, there aren't many new bullish factors that aren't already in the price,'' said Kazunaga Maeno, a Tokyo-based trader at Mitsubishi Corp., Japan's largest trading company. ``We could see further falls.''

Yukos, which pumps more oil than Libya, cut its production target to an average of 1.72 million barrels a day this year from 1.8 million as part of a program to reduce spending, the company said in an e-mailed statement yesterday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told U.S. President George Bush in a telephone conversation that Russian companies boosted output to alleviate rising prices, the Financial Times said, citing Bush spokesman Scott McClellan.

more...

[UpInArms]

11. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:16AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.0. With oil prices down and no major earnings warnings, the futures market is taking a bullish line on the cash market's opening action; current indications point to a modestly higher start

8:47AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5. Continued improvement in the futures market has the cash market poised for a modestly higher start... Oil-related stocks could act as a restraint in the early-going as the price of crude comes down; additionally, the NY Post has an article detailing the rising tide of the individual investor's interest in oil and other natural resource funds that may very well be seen as a contrarian indicator

8:16AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. Futures market moving higher this morning as a further reduction in crude prices, gains in foreign markets, and a Goldman Sachs upgrade of Dow component Caterpillar (CAT) have fueled the positive bias that is expected to lead to a modestly higher start for the cash market

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this month's corrective rebound. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rebound, a test of the 38% retracement level of the July-August decline crossing at 1388.75 is possible later this month. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 4.50 pt. at 1376 as of 6:36 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally and is breaking out above the 40- day moving average crossing at 1097.80. If this resistance level is cleared, the 50% retracement level of the June- August decline crossing at 1103.05 is the next upside target. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The September S&P 500 Index was up 3.10 pts. at 1099.30 as of 6:37 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[54anickel]

13. Rebound in dollar may hurt some U.S. firms

http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/business/9477650.htm?ERIGHTS=7749211661229910261philly::[e-mail]&KRD_RM=1ilkiolqqjomhhhhhhhhioihjk|Chad|Y

NEW YORK - The giant boost to U.S. corporate earnings that has come by way of the weak dollar could fade fast should there be even a slight slowdown in the currency's decline.

No forecasters are saying the dollar will soar, but there are some signs that a rebounding U.S. economy and higher interest rates are helping the dollar break out of the slump it has been in for much of the last two years.

Investors should beware: That might mean that earnings for U.S. companies doing business abroad could turn ugly.

Since peaking in February 2002, the dollar has fallen about 11 percent against the currencies of its major trading partners, according to data compiled by the Federal Reserve. That made dollar-backed assets less attractive to foreign investors.

The drop has mostly helped companies doing business overseas when calculating profit: When foreign currencies are strong, the profit collected abroad counts for more than it otherwise would. That is, when that profit is brought back to the United States, it is converted into more dollars than it would be if the dollar were stronger.

At fast-food chain McDonald's Corp., for instance, positive foreign-exchange translation boosted revenue by 3 percentage points to 10 percent of its worldwide total in the second quarter this year, while operating profit rose by 17 percent thanks to a 4-percentage-point lift from the weak dollar.

Currency benefits added 3 percentage points to technology giant International Business Machines Corp.'s 7 percent gain in revenue during the second quarter this year.

more....

So how come you rarely see the other side of the coin to this as part of the explanation to the great "recovery" of the markets in 2002-03, hmmmmm? Anyone, anyone? Ferris?:shrug:

[UpInArms]

14. 9:38 EST markets and open and YEEHAW!

Dow 10,124.74 +51.69 (+0.51%)
Nasdaq 1,848.33 +9.63 (+0.52%)
S&P 500 1,099.50 +3.82 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.298% +0.019

[54anickel]

15. US Treasury wants to identify issue holders

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/ca3fe1ca-f538-11d8-85e9-00000e2511c8.html

The US Treasury on Monday called on holders of large positions in a government bond issue to identify themselves to the New York Federal Reserve.


The Treasury asked for those holding $2bn or more in the 4 per cent bond due June 15 2009, by close of business on Wednesday August 18, to notify the NY Federal Reserve by Friday. Such summonses are usually issued when dealing in a particular security in the repo, or lending, market has become unusually tight. “It's their way of letting the market know they're paying attention and telling it not to misbehave,” said John Roberts, head of government trading at Barclays Capital in New York.

Conditions in the US repo market, where participants can borrow securities for short-selling and other uses, have become a concern because of a growing number of “fails”, where the securities in question are not lent or returned in spite of a repo agreement. A prolonged fail last year raised concerns among observers that the problem was becoming more entrenched and could undermine confidence in the market.

snip>

“They are more reluctant to lend the securities and this has been linked to the larger number of fails,” said Kim Rupert, bond market analyst at ActionEconomics.

more...

[54anickel]

26. Wonder if this is somehow related

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

snip>

It is well known that much of the source for that dollar buying today is the Asian official sector. As we noted last week, such huge purchases have prevented a calamitous fall in the external value of the dollar, which in turn has forestalled a private sector credit revulsion. Private sector creditors effectively view Asia’s central bankers as a bulwark against a precipitous dollar decline, given that their continued purchases of US dollars implicitly sanction the financial practices undertaken for decades by America’s monetary policy authorities and thereby ensure their perpetuation.

It is also true that central banks are not profit maximisers in the manner of a private business and are therefore perhaps happier to maintain the status quo – even if it means being repaid with devalued dollars – because the alternative is the loss of a huge export market and unprecedented financial instability, which central bankers abhor much as nature abhors a vacuum. To stop purchasing US dollars, it is said, risks the economic equivalent of embracing the nuclear option, a reckoning that could arrive as a sudden thunderclap of financial crisis—a precipitous withdrawal of capital a la Asia in 1997, which engenders a backdrop of spiking interest rates, swooning stock market and crashing home prices. Asia’s central banks, like US policy makers, may indeed recognise a self-interest in keeping the game going – avoiding a global meltdown that might ruin everyone.

But a closer examination of today’s capital flows suggests a new and potentially more disruptive class of investor who could easily bring down the whole house of cards on which American “prosperity” and the concomitant stability on which the dollar now rests. It’s not just central bankers who have a become a significant source of those capital inflows now providing offsetting support to a dollar otherwise bludgeoned by America’s growing trade gap. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is now including in its balance of payments figures data on broker/dealers in what used to only be bank data. The figures illustrate how banks and broker dealers have also become a major source for channeling money into the US. In the year ended March 2004, they added $251.7bn to their liabilities to non-residents, which in accounting terms constitutes a capital inflow into the US. These same organizations were channels for substantial inflows from Caribbean tax havens, likely representing foreign based hedge funds and proprietary traders, borrowing heavily in US dollars to fund carry trades in the US.

Although fund inflows from Asia (and by extension, the Asian official sector) continue to represent a substantial source of funding for the US, the BEA statistics, although not complete, do give us an alarming picture of a system increasingly dominated at the margin by leveraged financial flows, in an economy already dominated by massive debt accumulation: banks and brokers playing the carry trade, banks writing trillions of dollars worth of derivatives trades, and hedge funds borrowing like crazy in order to maximize returns. If the Greenspan Fed is serious about continuing to raise rates, then the cost of holding these positions becomes correspondingly greater. The margin clerks ultimately seize control, not the central banks. These sorts of leveraged flows are precisely the sort which could cut and run, precipitating the conditions for a violent fall in the dollar despite official sector efforts to the contrary.

more...

[KoKo]

45. Sounds like it could be. "Margin calls on treasuries? folks using them

to short...playing hedge and derivative games. :crazy:

How the heck is the average person supposed to understand this stuff and to know when to be worried? "The Shadow Financial Market run by the Shadow Government." :eyes:

[UpInArms]

17. home sales report

10:00am 08/24/04

U.S. JULY EXISTING HOME INVENTORIES 4.3 MONTH SUPPLY

10:00am 08/24/04

U.S. JULY EXISTING HOME SALES DOWN 2.9% TO 6.72 MLN

10:01am 08/24/04

U.S. JUNE EXISTING HOME SALES REVISED DOWN TO 6.92 MLN

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38223.4184953704-818532515&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

U.S. July existing home sales down 2.9% to 6.72 mln

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. sales of existing homes fell 2.9 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.72 million, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. Economists were expecting a decline to 6.85 million from June's record 6.95 million pace. The inventory of homes for sale was unchanged at 2.4 million, a 4.3-month supply at the current sales pace. The median price of a sold house rose 8.7 percent in the past year to $191,300.

Gotta run - computer has to go to doctor :( (am using an alternate machine that I hate)

[54anickel]

18. Older Investors Jittery as U.S. Markets Disappoint

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/24/business/24place.html

snip>

"Last year's rally was a junk rally that proved that greed was not dead," said Christopher T. Casey, portfolio manager at Boston Private Bank and Trust. "What you're seeing now is greed may not be dead but it's limping." Individual investors certainly began this year with high hopes. In January, two-thirds of the 800 investors surveyed by UBS said that they felt somewhat or very optimistic about where stocks would be in 12 months. UBS said it was the highest level of investor optimism since January 2000, the height of the stock market mania. Even now, with the market well off its highs for the year, the chasm between what investors seem to be expecting from the stock market and what they will probably receive remains wide. An astonishing 18 percent of investors polled in August said they expected to generate profits of 10 percent to 14 percent in their portfolios over the next 12 months, while 28 percent said they expected to generate gains of 5 percent to 9 percent.

Just under half of the investors polled this month said that they were either somewhat or very optimistic about the performance of the stock market over the next 12 months.

In the meantime, strategists like Mr. Casey expect the market to tread water for some time to come, predicting that stock prices will remain flat for a couple of years even as earnings rise.

Investors' retirement accounts are especially vulnerable to a drifting stock market. According to a study by the Employee Benefit Research Institute of 401(k) plan activity among 4.5 million participants, 67 percent of the assets invested in such plans went into stocks last year, up from 62 percent in 2002. In 2000, at the height of the stock market bubble, equities made up three-quarters of the assets held in 401(k) plans.

snip>

The Employee Benefit Research Institute study found that people in their 60's are still down 8.7 percent on average in their accounts for the four-year period beginning Dec. 31, 1999, and lasting through the end of last year. Participants in their 60's with more than 30 years of tenure on the job are even worse off; their account balances fell 15.5 percent on average during the period, the study said.

The long-running bull market in stocks that began in 1982 and lasted until 2000 certainly taught many investors that a buy-and-hold strategy was the wisest way to the largest gains in equities. A recent report by the Bank Credit Analyst, an independent research firm in Montreal, noted that capital gains from securities accounted for more than half of the increase in total assets among households from 1982 to 2000.


Oh yeah, there's a great argument for privatizing retirement! :eyes:

more about autopilot 401K inflows and savings...

[54anickel]

19. Late credit card payments fall to 4-year low

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5799597/

Delinquency rate falls to 4.43%, down from 5.2% in 2003

NEW YORK - Americans paid their credit card bills on time at a record high level in June, sending credit card delinquencies to their lowest level in four years, Moody's Investors Service said on Monday.

Moody's credit card delinquency index, which measures credit card bills 30 days or more past due, fell to 4.37 percent in June from 5.12 percent a year earlier.

June marked the 11th consecutive month of declines in delinquencies and was the lowest since June 2000, the rating agency said.

The delinquency rate fell to 4.43 percent for the second quarter, down from 5.2 percent a year earlier.

Credit cardholders paid back on average 16.81 percent of their credit card debt, a record high and well above the year-ago 15.2 percent, Moody's said.

For the second quarter, credit card payment rates rose to 16.46 percent, up from 15.02 percent a year earlier.

The ongoing decline in credit card delinquencies suggested that U.S. consumers are not struggling to meet their debt obligations, Moody's said. :eyes:

Sort of making a leap there ain't cha? They may be making more timely (possibly minimum) payments, but that doesn't necessarily mean they aren't struggling to do so. I think it's great if people are trying to get out from under their credit card debt, but if the money is flowing to pay off cards, it's not exactly making into our consumer driven economy. Money's flowing into paying debt and higher prices, real wages are stagnant or falling, where's the economic growth going to come from? :shrug:

more...

[54anickel]

20. Merc pushing equity index options with fee cuts, changes

http://www.suntimes.com/output/business/cst-fin-merc24.html

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange said Monday it will promote trading in equity index options -- including those tied to the Standard & Poor's, Nasdaq and Russell indexes -- by slashing fees and changing terms of the contracts.

The Merc said that for nine months starting Oct. 1, it will discount fees and add market makers for the contracts. The exchange hopes to duplicate success from measures taken earlier this year to increase trading in Eurodollar options.

While the Merc dominates the field in futures on stock indexes, its related options business has lagged. Traders using the Merc often turn to options contracts at the Chicago Board Options Exchange to hedge risks.

The Merc will make its equity index options European-style, which means they can be exercised only on their expiration date. The options currently use a so-called American style, allowing for an exercise anytime before expiration.

snip>

Another market user, who asked not be named, saw little significance in the move and said the Merc merely wants business that goes to the CBOE, which uses European-style rules.

more...

[54anickel]

21. Treasuries Pressured by Oil, Upbeat Fed

Oh yeah, there's an auction coming up again tomorrow, isn't there.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040824/markets_bonds_1.html

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries prices eased for a third straight session on Tuesday, unnerved by a mix of softer oil, firmer stocks and an upbeat economic outlook from Federal Reserve officials.

The benchmark 10-year note (US10YT=RR) lost a modest 4/32 in price but that nudged yields up to 4.30 percent, testing the ceiling of its recent tight trading range. A clear break would open the door for a move to 4.40 percent and fill the gap caused by July's dismal U.S. payrolls figures.

"We expect liquidity to remain thin and trading ranges tight until payrolls," said Richard Gilhooly, fixed-income market strategist at BNP Paribas, referring to the August jobs report due late next week.

"But the price action does indicate a strong likelihood of a retest of the upper end of the 4.16 to 4.42 percent range since the last employment report," he added. "If oil continues to soften and equities retain their bid, we would expect position adjustment to pressure yields around 10 to 12 basis points higher."

snip>

Traders reported some selling from private Japanese investors overnight, but also buying from Asian central banks.

Demand from foreign central banks has become a crucial prop for the market given that they have bought around $173 billion of Treasuries so far this year and currently own over a quarter of all such U.S. debt in public hands.

more...

[JNelson6563]

22. update 10:45

Dow 10,093.84 +20.79 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,834.54 -4.16 (-0.23%)
S&P 500 1,095.15 -0.53 (-0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.308% +0.029


Falling a bit fast, eh? Hope it's all good with you Marketeers!

:toast:

Julie

[Zynx]

23. What prompted that slide?

[54anickel]

27. Well, if you buy into the blather, NASDAQ and oil.....

11:00AM: The SOX semiconductor index has trended straight lower this morning after opening slightly higher...that has pulled the Nasdaq back and affected the whole market...the SOX is now down 2.1% at 382.02...oil is now down only 20 cents...NYSE Adv/Dec 1679/1248, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1546/1139

10:25AM: The October crude oil futures contract is now down 65 cents to $45.45...oil remains a top focus of the market, particularly given the lack of corporate and economic news today...volume, not surprisingly, remains very light as the indices remain in a narrow range in early trading...NYSE Adv/Dec 1812/962, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1791/787

10:00AM: July existing home sales fall 2.9% to 6.72 million annual rate from record 6.92 million annual rate in June...this is still a very high level and there is little indication that higher mortgage rates have slowed down this hot market...this data is not likely to have a major market impact...indices don't show much early followthrough, as trading action is likely to be light again today...

[54anickel]

24. Why Bush is on the carpet with Hoover

A possible clue to what we will be hearing from the "Liberal media" in the run up to election day to counter this perception?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1288551,00.html

snip>

True, the economy has created 1.5m jobs in the past year, but that has barely kept pace with the country's population growth so has made little dent in the ranks of the unemployed and is the slowest employment recovery in several decades.

Since the payrolls number emerged, radio programmes in the US have been dominated by phone-ins about the economy and jobs, to the delight of the Kerry camp and the chagrin of Bush, who prefer to talk tough about their wartime leader.

Bush regularly argues that the economy has "turned the corner". Kerry retorts that the recovery has made a u-turn to nowhere.

On the grounds that, to borrow a famous phrase from a Clinton campaign adviser in 1992, "it's the economy, stupid" that decides elections, Bush junior is only too aware that he could yet be defeated by a so-called "jobless recovery", as his father was 12 years ago.

snip>

The prices of gas and shares, along with jobs, are the sort of things Americans notice and care about and the flow of news has been almost universally negative.

True, other measures of employment have been stronger than the payrolls numbers but it is the payrolls that grab the headlines. Mr Greenspan, after all, has told us that it is those numbers that matter.

All of this makes Mr Bush sound almost the hapless victim of unfavourable economic circumstance but the idea that he is an innocent bystander, so to speak, is a long way from the truth.

Apart from the fact that the fighting in Iraq is a key element in keeping oil prices high, there are two other, related factors for which Mr Bush is responsible and which, if he loses to Kerry, will go down as key reasons for the defeat. Those are his tax cuts and the explosion of the government deficit.

snip>

...Mr Bush likes to say the deficit is due to the increased cost of his war on terror. But a glance at the figures shows the tax cuts are to blame.

more...

[54anickel]

25. Too much money to blame for rising price of oil, economists claim

Yeah, this is a repeat. But this article was reprinted in the FT yesterday (subscription required). I figure if the FT found it worth repeating, so do I. :evilgrin:


http://www.nytimes.com/financialtimes/business/FT20040819_16237_53574.html

snip>

Mervyn King, the Bank of England's governor, has defended central banks from the charge that their lax policies have fuelled the oil price rise. But he conceded that aggressive rate cutting may have contributed to the rise in commodity prices, including oil.

"I think there has been an expansion of money and liquidity around that does lead in general to an increase in asset prices, of which commodities prices are one," Mr King said last week. "But that has, of course, been a deliberate response by the monetary authorities to the situations in the economies which they each face."

Since 2001, the US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates 13 times, and left its main rate at a historically low 1 per cent for a year before two rises in June and last week took it to 1.5 per cent. Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy, meanwhile, shows no sign of changing. While conventional economic wisdom says that supply and demand factors are what drive changes in oil and other commodity prices, the influence of monetary policy cannot be overlooked, some analysts say.

Eric Barthalon, chief economist at Allianz Dresdner Asset Management, has tracked a correlation between US public debt held by central banks a measure of overall global liquidity and the oil price. Meanwhile, the ratio of global reserves to world trade, another measure of global liquidity, has risen for two years at the fastest rate since the 1970s the last era of oil shocks according to data collated by the International Monetary Fund.

"Whenever you print money in excess of the needs of the real economy, you create a situation where people try to spend it, to get rid of excess liquidity," said Mr Barthalon. "We are in a situation where the US current account deficit is not financed by foreign private savings but by global money creation money is being created out of thin air." This tends to be spent on the likes of oil and steel, he says. "The markets that are most likely to react the fastest are commodities markets. And in creditor countries like China, the economy is booming and so is the demand for commodities." Economist Jeffrey Frankel of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government has argued that changes in oil prices are at least partly the result of real interest rates nominal interest rates adjusted for inflation. "If short-term interest rates are low then speculators borrow in US dollars and go long in other things, in this case in commodities, so this could explain some of the big run-up in prices," said Mr Frankel.

[54anickel]

28. FDA questions Ill. plan to buy drugs from UK

http://www.boston.com/business/markets/articles/2004/08/24/fda_questions_ill_plan_to_buy_drugs_from_uk/

WASHINGTON -- The Illinois governor's ambitious plan to help that state's residents buy prescription drugs from Britain also may permit drug imports from Europe's developing nations, the Food and Drug Administration fears.

Governor Rod R. Blagojevich provided the FDA with an 84-page report spelling out how Illinois would act as a trusted intermediary, facilitating safe prescription drug purchases from Canada and Britain.

William Hubbard, the agency's associate commissioner, said the Illinois plan still "lacked specificity" on key areas.

For instance, opening America's door to prescription drugs from Britain leaves it propped open for sketchier drug imports from lesser developed countries, he said.

"They don't have the kind of sophisticated regulatory system the UK has," Hubbard said. With very little effort Latvia and Estonia, for example, could turn into gateways for drugs made in such countries as Turkistan.

more...

[54anickel]

29. Bull's Last Prop: Nervous Shorts

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ackerman/current.html

Nervous shorts are all that is keeping the stock market afloat right now. I've reproduced a chart of the Dow mini-contract that shows this effect. For the last three days, the futures have struggled unsuccessfully to reach a very modest target at 10143. The 154-point A-B impulse leg leading to that target looked promising enough when the rally cycle began; but so far, after numerous tries, the C-D follow-through leg has been able to get above 10131.

The underlying weakness this implies has been evident in both the Dow and S&P charts, and in the charts of other broad indices, since early August. Yet the uptrend has continued, an increasingly obvious bear trap every step of the way, with each new bout of weakness resolved to the upside after much flailing around. If this is bullish action, then Larry Kudlow and Abby Cohen are geniuses and my pet goldfish Fred is about to be elected governor of South Dakota.

The Final Straw?

More likely is that the pattern of the last several weeks will soon recur yet again. Selling will dry up in the absence of catastrophic news, enabling Da Boyz, finally, to mini-squeeze this vehicle above 10143 on feeble volume. Distribution can then begin again in earnest, with the usual orphans, widows and pensioners doubling down in anticipation of the long-promised thrust to Dow 11000.

And if the short-squeeze to 10143 doesn't pan out? My guess is that it will mean shorts have been joined at last by long-term investors who are nearly as eager to exit this market. Together, these two sources of urgent supply will be the straw that finally break's the camel's back. Toss out everything I've just said and you still have a stock market in which the risk:reward ratio is so heavily tilted against bulls that even Kudlow must be straining to come up with reasons for buying stocks.

[KoKo]

37. "Gold Destined to Soar?" (from the article...interesting)

This has always been my question about buying gold right now or in the near future. What good does it do, if there's nothing to buy with it? For an individual, anyway :shrug: I can see maybe buying "mining shares" in anticipation of world currencies going back to the gold standard, but aside from collecting gold coins what would be the point of trying to buy the bullion certificates: :shrug:

Anyone here, have a counter to this statement from the article?


Gold Destined to Soar


Gold is destined to soar someday, but only after the world's currencies have been repudiated in the wake of a financial crash. Between now and then, however, we could conceivably face a deflationary squeeze in which holding dollars would be preferable to holding gold. Demand capable of pushing gold above $1,000 an ounce would necessarily come from individuals, not government. But in a ruinous deflation, what assets would individuals possess that they could trade for gold? Household savings are non-existent in the U.S., and Americans surely wouldn't trade their homes for Krugerrands. Meanwhile, the foreigners who hold our IOUs as assets wouldn't be in any better position to buy gold, since the bulk of their savings would be wiped out by the collapse of U.S. stock and bond markets.

"Let's get real: Gold will take off and it will not be due to indebted Americans' purchases of the metal. If anything, Americans will join in and start buying gold when the price begins to peak."

Again, the question is, Buy gold with what? It's surely not as though most of us will be a couple of steps ahead of the crash, ready to shift our savings from stocks to bullion at exactly the right time (i.e., before stocks and bonds become hopelessly illiquid in, say, a matter of hours). Perhaps one American investor in 50,000 has done the necessary shifting already, but it's the 49,999 who haven't that could put a lid on gold.

[54anickel]

30. Oil's slippery slope

A link to this article is at 321gold. This article links to the original at Asia Times.

http://www.axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/printer_11181.shtml

BRUSSELS and DUBAI - As the neo-conservative dream of a "liberated" Iraq came true in April 2003, who would have predicted that 16 months later oil would become the ultimate time bomb for the Bush administration?

And the Saudi royal/oil family cavalry is not exactly coming to the rescue.

Many factors explain the current rise in the price of oil toward US$50 a barrel - and counting: incapacity - or unwillingness - of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to respond to growing global demand; maximum terrorist risk in Saudi Arabia; the Yukos saga in Russia; the recent referendum in Venezuela; ethnic trouble in Nigeria; China's unquenchable oil thirst; widespread speculation frenzy propelled by pension funds; and serial pipeline bombing in Iraq.

big snip>

In euros, please
From an American perspective, the need to control Iraq's oil is deeply intertwined with the defense of the dollar. The strength of the dollar is guaranteed above all by a secret agreement signed between the US and Saudi Arabia in the 1970s that all OPEC oil sales be denominated in dollars. Saddam Hussein started selling Iraqi oil in euros (and making a handsome profit) in November 2000 - and that's another crucial reason for the Iraqi invasion. Many OPEC countries, not to mention Russia (President Vladimir Putin already referred to it on the record), flirt with the idea of trading their oil in euros. (OPEC is made up of Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.)

A recent analysis published by Goldmoney states that OPEC has already switched, in fact, to trading oil in euros - as oil-exporting countries fight to offset the weak dollar, "It seems clear that OPEC and the other oil exporters are already pricing crude oil in terms of euros, at least tacitly. Whether they start invoicing their crude oil sales in terms of euros remains to be seen."

So what is Cheney doing in the middle of this crisis? He's blaming the Democrats. The failure of Cheney's Russia strategy will be examined in a separate article. But as far as Iraq is concerned, the blowback is obvious. The neo-cons dreamed of exporting "democracy". Instead, they imported geopolitical instability - reflected in the rising price of oil. The Bush administration has not been rewarded with cheap oil: it is now facing a new, slow, mutating oil shock.

The oil business knows that with its oil infrastructure repaired, Iraq could rival or might even surpass Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer. But the neo-con dream of a US military protectorate with US oil companies running the oil business is a more distant prospect by the day. There's no credible evidence that Iraq may become, sooner or even later, a source of spare capacity to world oil production, or be able to stop the migration of OPEC and non-OPEC countries from the petro-dollar to the petro-euro.

Oil at $50 a barrel, and on its way to $60, is an absolute disaster for oil-importing countries (and this means most of the world). Business costs are automatically higher - leading in many cases to job cuts, which means higher unemployment. The days of cheap oil may be over - as most analysts agree. But beyond the current hysteria over oil at $50 and the failure of Cheney's US energy policy, the world seems to be failing to address at least four extremely important questions on which the common future depends: how much oil - proven reserves - is left in the Middle East? How much oil does Russia have? What is the real amount of proven reserves in the Caspian Sea? How long will all this oil last?

[54anickel]

31. Like War?

Another 321gold link

http://www.lewrockwell.com/roberts/roberts65.html

snip>

No one has been held accountable for the unjustified invasion of Iraq that has destroyed America’s standing in the world and has cost tens of thousands of Iraqi lives and thousands of American dead and wounded.

Don’t expect a demand for accountability from the public. A poll released August 20 by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland found that 54% of Americans continue to believe Iraq had WMD; 35% believe that Iraq was closely linked to al-Qaida, and 15% believe Iraq was involved in the September 11 attack.

What does the persistence of such extraordinary falsehoods say about the US media? How can a free people with First Amendment rights be so totally misinformed? The answer is that an independent media no longer exists in the US.

Formerly independent media are now submerged into corporate chains where focus on advertising revenues means zero tolerance for controversy. In the run-up to the US invasion of Iraq, the US media served as a propaganda arm for the Bush administration. The New York Times and Washington Post have since published mild apologies for neglecting their responsibilities, but the US media has been muzzled by the "you-are-with-us-or-against-us" mantra.

Anyone who tells the truth is in the "against-us" camp.

Having gotten away with one invasion based on deception, the Bush administration is eager to repeat the offense. Last week Undersecretary of State John Bolton used a Hudson Institute forum to repeat before a live C-SPAN TV audience the same lies – only this time it is Iran which has WMD:

snip>

There is total failure of US diplomacy. Is the failure intentional? Does the Bush administration desire more war in the Middle East?

Every indicator reads yes. The US has struck an aggressive stance toward Iraq, Syria and Iran – the three Middle Eastern countries that are not ruled by American puppets on the American payroll. Now that the Soviet Union is no longer a check on US intrusions in the Middle East, the Bush administration intends to complete the colonization under the cloak of bringing "democracy" to Islam.

This is the neoconservative agenda. The same neocons who control the Bush administration have put forward this plan in written and spoken form for all to read and hear. They have informed us of their war intentions, and we are paying no attention.

If you favor the return of the draft and war without end, vote Republican.

[54anickel]

32. The 9-11 Commission Charade

Another 321gold link....

http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2004/tst082304.htm

snip>

The 9-11 Commission report is several hundred pages worth of recommendations to make government larger and more intrusive. Does this surprise anyone? It was written by people who cannot imagine any solution not coming from government. One thing you definitely will not see in the Commission report is a single critique of our interventionist foreign policy, which is the real source of most anti-American feelings around the globe.

The Commissioners recommend the government spend billions of dollars spreading pro-US propaganda overseas, as if that will convince the world to love us. What we have forgotten in the years since the end of the Cold War is that actions speak louder than words. The US didn't need propaganda in the captive nations of Eastern Europe during the Cold War because people knew us by our deeds. They could see the difference between the United States and their Soviet overlords. That is why, given the first chance, they chose freedom. Yet everything we have done in response to the 9-11 attacks, from the Patriot Act to the war in Iraq, has reduced freedom in America. Spending more money abroad or restricting liberties at home will do nothing to deter terrorists, yet this is exactly what the 9-11 Commission recommends.

Our nation will be safer only when government does less, not more. Rather than asking ourselves what Congress or the president should be doing about terrorism, we ought to ask what government should stop doing. It should stop spending trillions of dollars on unconstitutional programs that detract from basic government functions like national defense and border security. It should stop meddling in the internal affairs of foreign nations, but instead demonstrate by example the superiority of freedom, capitalism, and an open society. It should stop engaging in nation-building, and stop trying to create democratic societies through military force. It should stop militarizing future enemies, as we did by supplying money and weapons to characters like Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. It should stop entangling the American people in unholy alliances like the UN and NATO, and pledge that our armed forces will never serve under foreign command. It should stop committing American troops to useless, expensive, and troublesome assignments overseas, and instead commit the Department of Defense to actually defending America. It should stop interfering with the 2nd amendment rights of private citizens and businesses seeking to defend themselves.

More than anything, our federal government should stop deluding us that more government is the answer. We have far more to fear from an unaccountable government at home than from any foreign terrorist.

[KoKo]

39. Great Ron Paul article. Has it been posted in any other forums? People

need to read it. That's what I felt about the 9/11 Commission. They recommend putting another layer of beaurocracy on top of that rotten festering mess and we'll all be safer....Ugh. And, I'm not even a Libertarian!

[54anickel]

41. Not posted elsewhere that I know of. (Which simply means I didn't

post it anywhere else).

[54anickel]

33. Crude, Clownies and Crashes

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/rostenko082304.html

snip>

The stock market continues to trade within a long-standing downward channel, marked by progressively lower highs and lower lows, but still primarily range-bound. The highs get a little lower, the lows get a little lower, but nothing much seems to happen overall. In fact, prices today are at about the same levels we saw in July, May, March and last December.

Unless the world has finally found a perpetual state of economic equilibrium, it's not likely that this apparent lack of volatility can persist for too much longer. Markets like to move, and move they do. Periods like the current often look like the proverbial "calm before the storm" in retrospect.

Naturally, storms can be good or bad, depending upon preceding conditions. If you need rain, storms are good. If your territory is flooding, storms are not so very good. In bull markets the calm periods are usually followed by good storms; the market breaks out of consolidation and posts another leg higher. In bear markets, calm periods are often followed by re-assertion of the overall downtrend.

snip>

Perhaps this time will be different? Oh yeah, baby! With record highs in oil prices, a record trade deficit (now approaching an astronomical 6% annualized), a long-term war in the Middle East which will bleed our collective coffers for years, a reversal in the federal budget from a 2.4% (of GDP) surplus in 2000 to a new all-time record high deficit this year, we are in FINE shape to witness the birth of the next secular bull. Perhaps some time around lunch next Thursday or Friday maybe even if we're lucky.

It's far more likely that the eventual resolution of this year's primarily sideways trade will occur on the downside. The progression of lower lows and lower highs after a classic 50% bear market retracement on the S&P 500 does not bode well. That bullish sentiment once again hit peaks like those seen before the market topped out in 2000 while insiders went on a massive selling spree does not bode ebulliently bullish either.

Oh but there's more. So much more.

more....

[KoKo]

42. "Mathamagics" (haven't seen that one before!)

that, by the way, is the "fundamentally" strong economy which is generating fewer and fewer jobs month after month and, when adjusted for the Ministry of Labor Data Massage's statistical mathamagics, more than likely resulted in a loss of tens of thousands of jobs last month.

:D

[54anickel]

34. 12:27 lunchtime check

Dow 10,068.77 -4.28 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,829.02 -9.68 (-0.53%)
S&P 500 1,093.33 -2.35 (-0.21%)
10-yr Bond 4.3% +0.021
30-yr Bond 5.087% +0.017
NYSE Volume 525,363,000
Nasdaq Volume 662,950,000

12:00PM: For a second straight day the indices are hovering near unchanged on low volume...the indices opened higher as oil prices eased and there was little corporate news...as the morning progressed, the SOX semiconductor index sagged, and brought the overall market lower...now, the S&P is virtually unchanged...the Dow is outperforming, helped by gains in Caterpillar (CAT 73.10 +1.05), which got upgraded by Goldman Sachs to "outperform"...the Nasdaq is underperforming on weakness in semiconductors, as the SOX is down 2.4%...the October crude futures contract is now down 17 cents at $45.88...
advancers are nearly even with declining issues...NYSE Adv/Dec 1593/1482, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1438/1396

11:25AM: Volume is running just barely ahead of yesterday's dismal pace...the indices have continued to languish, with weakness in semiconductors hurting the Nasdaq...oil is now down 20 cents...one of the bigger movers in the Dow today is Caterpillar (CAT 73.29 +1.24), which got an upgrade from powerhouse Goldman Sachs from "in-line" to "outperform"...NYSE Adv/Dec 1653/1351, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1499/1273


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1523 (45%) 1388 (45%)
Declines 1613 (48%) 1493 (48%)
Unchanged 188 (5%) 179 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 182 (36%) 179 (28%)
Down Vol* 301 (61%) 448 (70%)
Unch. Vol* 9 (1%) 11 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 64 23
New Lo's 11 32

[54anickel]

35. U.S. stocks lose ground as Nasdaq leads pullback

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040824/cf9b2f3c8c554acd34c69a81b0f356eb_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks lost ground Tuesday as the Nasdaq fell on weakness in the semiconductor sector and blue chip gains fizzled out, with traders saying the current pullback in oil has largely been priced into the market.

Market professionals say stocks are hitting resistance, especially on the S&P 500 index which has pulled back every time it has tested 1,100 intraday in the last three sessions.

"At 1,1,00, that's a 40-point gain in the S&P in a week and a half in anticipation of a decline in oil," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Pacific Growth Equities. "We're just taking a rest after a pretty health run, with the catalyst being a weakness in technology, notably semiconductor stocks."

snip>

In another blow for the sector, Robert LeFort, head of the U.S. division of Infineon Technologies (NYSE:IFX - News) said the U.S. chip market is not likely to grow 25 percent to 30 percent in 2004 because of the dollar and oil prices.

Lefort told German newspaper Die Welt that such growth rates are not likely before 2006.

snip>

Oil pursues its slide
Crude-oil futures continued their pullback as the resumption of oil exports out of Iraq eased supply concerns.

Crude for October delivery was last down 15 cents at $45.90 a barrel, after falling as low as $45.35 in intraday trading.

The resumption of nearly 2 million barrels per day of oil exports in Iraq "has given the crude market a break in the anxiety, but there is still no answer as to where more crude oil is going to come from to supply a growing world economy," said Todd Hultman, president of Dailyfutures.com, a commodity information provider.

Reflecting these concerns, UBS Investments raised its forecast Tuesday for the price of oil to $40.60 per barrel in 2004, $34 per barrel in 2005 and $30 a barrel in 2006. Analyst William A. Featherston's prior forecasts were for per-barrel prices respectively of $35.60, $28 and $25.

Stronger-than-expected demand, tight inventories and limited spare capacity are driving the higher estimates, he said.

According to Federal Reserve Board Governor Ben Bernanke, the higher price of oil won't take a meaningful toll on the U.S. economy.

snip>

Currencies, bonds
On the foreign exchange markets, the dollar traded at three-week highs against the euro, but was slightly lower against the Japanese yen.

Expectations for improved U.S. economic data later in the week and an ease in oil prices has led to the unwinding of the short dollar positions put in place following the Aug. 13 U.S. trade report, which showed another record deficit.

more...

[54anickel]

36. The End of Cheap Money

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/ing082304.html

The Fed's subsidization of the American economy is over. The era of cheap money is at an end. Interest rates have ratcheted up again in England, following increases in Australia and China, so the long overdue rate increase in the United States was no surprise. With interest rates at the lowest in recorded history, America's net national savings rate dropped to less than 2% of GDP as they borrowed with wild abandon. For three years, US interest rates have been in negative territory as the Americans pursued a cheap money policy. As such, further rate increases are inevitable which would expose the vulnerability of America's financial center causing a further large devaluation of the dollar. And with the election looming in the fall, a cheerleading Fed reluctantly removed the punch bowl.

Flood Of Red Ink

A For some time now we raised concerns about this environment of unsustainable low interest rates, believing that the glut of dollars would eventually feed rising prices. Record household debt together with record government twin deficits have made the US economy highly sensitive to the impact of higher interest rates. The United States is the world's biggest capital importer and net debtor. And now, even a small uptick in interest rates were enough to cause both the stock market and housing markets to swoon on concerns about the overly indebted consumer and financial institutions that financed this orgy of spending. Questions are asked of even the "too big to fail" Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Of more concern, is that while the consumer has retrenched, the Federal Government has not, and is still running huge budgetary deficits.

snip>

Dollar Blocs, Euro Blocs, and Yuan Blocs

China's emergence as a superpower has not only helped Japan pull out of its ten year doldrums, it has been the driver for the emergence of the Far East as a super economy. And there is talk of a common Asian currency like the Euro to facilitate trade and investment. In essence, a common Asian currency would reduce currency risk and the dependence on US dollar, further undermining the greenback.

China's efforts to go from a state-owned and run enterprise to a more market economy has come at a cost. For example, its banking sector is in need of restructuring and there is still much to do about corporate governance. Nonetheless, the world is now discovering what it is like to live in a China-centric world. In 2003, China consumed 7 percent of the world's crude oil, 31 percent of its coal, 30 percent of its iron ore, almost 20 percent of its steel, 25 percent of its aluminum and 40 percent of its cement. No wonder foreign investment surged into China, making it the largest recipient of the funds in the world, exceeding the United States. China is now one of the world's twin economic engines, alongside the United States. While a new superpower has emerged, the old superpower, the United States is ageing.

For three years, a mixture of cyclical and structural factors has influenced the US dollar. A major part of the decline is due to the imbalance of Chinese production on the supply side and American consumption on the demand side. China is a powerhouse of exports, until their consumers take up the slack, the Chinese are dependent on America's insatiable appetite for goods. Here is the rub. Once the Chinese become confident in their own markets and the Asian countries begin to learn to rely on themselves and their markets , there won't be a need for America. Why then, will they need all those reserves of depreciating dollars?

more...

[54anickel]

40. ‘No debt default by RP, no emergency powers for GMA’

http://www.philstar.com/philstar/News200408250403.htm

President Arroyo vowed yesterday the country will never default on its debt repayments and said she does not need any "emergency powers" to deal with the possible consequences of a looming "fiscal crisis."

"Awareness of the truth is the first step towards action. The President called a spade a spade to impress upon the people the seriousness of the situation," Presidential Spokesman Ignacio Bunye said in a statement.

"Telling the people the truth was intended to instill greater responsibility for these obligations, not to signal default, which will never happen," he added.

The Philippines defaulted on its foreign obligations in 1983 during the Ferdinand Marcos dictatorship, ushering in a decade of economic difficulties and political turmoil. Marcos was ousted in 1986.

Mrs. Arroyo, a Georgetown-trained economist, said Monday in a statement: "We are already in the midst of a fiscal crisis and we have to face it squarely."

The President’s comments came after a group of Filipino economists warned that the country could face a financial meltdown in three years similar to Argentina’s, which defaulted on its public debt in 2001 because of its ballooning deficit and staggering amount of debt.

As Bunye sought to allay the fears and concerns aired by various groups, he said the President "does not need any emergency powers because existing laws already give our president enough powers to deal with this problem."

more...

[54anickel]

43. Shell oil scandal 'began in 1998'

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/business/articles/timid81765?source=


THE Financial Services Authority, the City watchdog, has alleged that Shell's now infamous mis-statement of proven reserves dates back to 1998 - four years earlier than was previously thought.


Its investigation, published today, also found that the company ignored warnings as early as 2000 that estimates may be wrong.


The world's third-largest oil group admitted earlier this year it had overbooked oil and gas reserves by more than 4bn barrels, slashing its lucrative energy portfolio by 23% and stunning the City.


The mis-statement of reserves was previously thought to have begun in 2002. However, the FSA said Shell made false and misleading statements between 1998 and 2003. It failed to correct the estimates until earlier this year.

more...

[54anickel]

44. Shell settles with SEC for $120 mln

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B3D952E38-F473-4F0E-A80B-86C0E8901475%7D&siteid=google&dist=google

Shell (SC: news, chart, profile) (RD: news, chart, profile) said in late July that it would settle with the SEC without admitting or denying guilt. The London and The Hague-based group reduced its proven reserves estimate by 23 percent in January, launching a management shakeup at the highest levels, as well as spawning federal probes. See archived story.

The SEC also found that Shell overstated the standardized measure of future cash flows by about $6.6 billion. The company remedied the overstatements in a filing on July 2.

"Shell's overstatement of proved reserves, and its delay in correcting the overstatement, resulted from its desire to create and maintain the appearance of a strong reserves replacement ratio," the SEC said in a statement, adding that the companies lacked effective internal controls over the process. The SEC also noted that Shell was warned several times of potential overstatements.

"In each case, Shell either rejected the warnings as immaterial or unduly pessimistic, or attempted to "manage" the potential exposure by, for example, delaying de-booking of improperly recorded proved reserves until new, offsetting proved reserves bookings materialized," the SEC said.

Shell also agreed to spend $5 million to develop and enact an internal compliance program, pay a minimal $1 disgorgement and settle with the U.K.'s Financial Services Authority -- the equivalent to the SEC -- for $30.73 million.

more...

[54anickel]

46. 1:50 numbers

Dow 10,102.32 +29.27 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 1,837.35 -1.35 (-0.07%)
S&P 500 1,096.74 +1.06 (+0.10%)
10-yr Bond 4.295% +0.016
30-yr Bond 5.081% +0.011
NYSE Volume 678,608,000
Nasdaq Volume 842,545,000

1:30PM: Choppy trade persists as the stock market improves its stance and the blue chip averages approach their mid-morning values... The catalyst, once again, has been a sharp move lower in the price of crude oil (down 2.5%) to $44.90/bbl... This level represents the lowest price of crude oil since Friday, August 13, and has been used as a reason to take equities higher... Oil flows from Southern Iraq have doubled from a week ago and that has eased some concerns about supply shortages in that region... The energy shares, however, have received no boost from the news and have headed 0.8% lower...
Energy has been weak for the past week or so - for reasons Briefing.com explains in our Energy Sector Downgrade (to Market Weight to Overweight) on the Sector View page...NYSE Adv/Dec 1715/1507, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1525/1408

12:55PM: Indices rebound to near unchanged, as oil weakens a bit more and the October crude contract is now down 77 cents...Cisco (CSCO 18.88 -0.30) is down after UBS lowered its price target on the stock $20 from $21 even as they maintained their "neutral" rating...gold stocks are weak as the fallow metal is down $7.10 to $405.70...semiconductors are the other noteworthy weak sector, while airlines are up, helped by the decline in oil prices...NYSE Adv/Dec 1545/1636, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1441/1475

12:30PM: In what amounts to a major move on a day like today, the indices take a dip...no triggering event, but the SOX semiconductor index is now down 2.5%...traders may be aware that in six of the past seven years the market has been down in the final five trading days of August (which starts) tomorrow, by about 4% for each of the indices...

[54anickel]

47. Fed Study Sees Few Drawbacks in Payrolls Survey

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=reutersEdge&storyID=6048124

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank has waded into a debate over which of two U.S. employment surveys is more reliable, leaning in favor of the approach preferred by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan over the generally rosier one favored by the Bush administration.

Payrolls growth reported by the government was surprisingly weak in June and July, reviving a debate about whether a rosier alternative measure of jobs growth should be considered.

For months, bulls on the economy have been touting the government's "household" survey as a better measure of job growth than the "establishment" survey.

The household survey, which extrapolates the unemployment rate from data drawn from 60,000 households, has been showing a stronger pace of job creation than the establishment survey, which polls companies that employ about one-third of the entire labor force.

The San Francisco Fed, in an economic letter posted on its Web site and dated Aug. 27, pointed out flaws in two arguments in favor of the smaller household survey.

more...

[54anickel]

48. 2:21 update, then I've gotta run. It's that magical hour again (2pm) and

the current direction in down. I'll have to check back tonight to see where they end up for the day.

Dow 10,090.15 +17.10 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,834.31 -4.39 (-0.24%)
S&P 500 1,095.54 -0.14 (-0.01%)
10-yr Bond 4.295% +0.016
30-yr Bond 5.077% +0.007
NYSE Volume 747,377,000
Nasdaq Volume 918,405,000


No new blather yet.

[DoBotherMe]

49. Closing

4 p.m.
Dow 10,098.63 +25.58 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,836.89 -1.81 (-0.10%)
S&P 500 1,096.19 +0.51 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.283% +0.004
NYSE Volume 1,090,962,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,311,541,000

[54anickel]

50. Closing and personal rant

Dow 10,098.63 +25.58 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,836.89 -1.81 (-0.10%)
S&P 500 1,096.19 +0.51 (+0.05%)
10-yr Bond 4.283% +0.004
30-yr Bond 5.07% N/A
NYSE Volume 1,092,978,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,311,513,000


Latest blather (whatever happened to closing blather?)
3:30PM: Volume is headed for another day barely above 1.0 billion shares on the NYSE and close to 1.2 billion on the Nasdaq...advancers are about equal to declining issues for the NYSE and Nasdaq combined...not surprisingly, there aren't a whole lot of major sector movers...semiconductors are down, as are gold and mining stocks, while the airline is a noteworthy strong sector...NYSE Adv/Dec 1688/1614, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1475/1536

3:00PM: The October crude oil futures contract closed down $0.84 at $45.21...it was as low as $44.75, but the stock market has reacted little to this apparent good news...last week, there was talk of lower oil prices while the market rallied, so it is possible that expectations of an easing had already been priced in...still, the decline is clearly good news for the stock market and airlines and other sectors that are highly energy dependent did well today as the XAL airline stock index is up 2.6%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1761/1530, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1530 /1445

2:30PM: After the close today Hughes Supply (HUG) and H&R Block (HRB) are the biggest companies due to report earnings...the biggest upcoming market mover, however, could be the July durable goods orders release tomorrow morning... orders were down in Apr and May before bouncing back in June, and whether orders pick up significantly will provide some important clues about business confidence...a gain of about 1% is expected, but this data is extremely volatile and difficult to forecast...NYSE Adv/Dec 1812/1472, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1572/1397



Personal rant:

Well, got that call from Workforce Development - the gubbermint will NOT give out the retraining money for me to finish my BA. (Bastards!) Yep, that's right. All this retraining money Shrub keeps spouting out about is for a Tech School or new job skills training only. So, I can either waste their money and my time re-taking what's offered at the local tech school (did I mention I've already taken every IT related program they offer except Cisco training) or go it alone for finishing the BA.

I've already signed up for classes and student loans, orientation is tonight. Not that big of a deal, I'll be able to scrape by. Just really pisses me off! All that bragging Shrub's been doing about retraining funds is pretty much BS. It's uses are soooooo limited. Will only cover training that basically keeps you painted into that "grunt worker" corner. :grr:

[KoKo]

51. Bad Experience, "54." I think we know now not to believe a word the idiot

says about "retraining" for new skills.

What I wonder is, that with all your other skills, why are you going back to finish your BA?

Are you hoping to teach...a good thing in these times if you can throw out one of those "tenured crones" or where are you headed.

Sounds like you loaded up on the tech and feel you won't use it ...granted that's all going to India...but aren't your tech skills more important somewhere than finishing your B.A. and going into the job pool with thousands of others with B.A.'s

Whatever...I feel for you..and all the effort you are putting into re-training and enhancing your skills. I wish you good luck in this..because you will know where you should be...:-)'s to you!

[54anickel]

52. Couple of reasons KoKo

And I need to correct myself, it's a BS, not a BA degree.

First, nearly all tech jobs posted now require a Bachelors degree. I could get a Bachelors in tech, but most of the courses would be repeats of what I already have - they won't accept most of my tech school credits for transfer. (But they'll tranfer them in to get me to a junior status for a Bachelor of Science in Management) :crazy: If I would go for the degree in tech, I'd still be limiting myself to tech jobs. To be honest, I'm getting to old and tired to keep crawling around underdesks and inside wiring closets, and the 24x7 beeper coverage has gotten old and stressful. The BS in Management is supposedly considered "more well rounded" (whatever the hell that means!) and it will have the IT tag on it from transferring in my AAS degree. Sort of a 2 for 1 BS in Management/IT vs just a BS in IT.

Second, I tried for several instructor positions at the tech colleges (have background in corporate training, tech school advisory committees, and lots of experience as a student). Guess what - they required a Bachelors to teach in a tech school. They will accept 7 years work experience as an equivalent but preference will always be given to the candidate that holds the Bachelor or above degree.

So, I decided that since the market still sort of sucks and training money was available due to the mass layoff situation I was in that I'd take them up on the training money. Thought perhaps having "working on a bachelor degree" on my resume may open a few doors as well. Alas, can't use the $$$ for that. But, if I wanted to be an auto mechanic, chef, hospitality specialist, x-ray or dental technician - no problem as long as I could complete whatever training required in 2 years. That would mean full-time student status. How the heck do they think a displaced worker is going to go to school full-time?

That was the other thing that was appealing about the BS degree, it's accelerated and takes 1 or 2 nights a week. You could actually still hold a full-time job, should I be fortunate enough to land one!

You probably won't see this reply KoKo, but damn it feels good to vent!