Bush, Kerry Even In New Florida Poll - CNN

[Nambe]

http://www.international.nasdaq.com/asp/gmWorldNews.asp&headl">NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)

President George W. Bush and Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry both received 45% in a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll of registered voters in Florida, Cable News Network reported Tuesday.

Ralph Nader, who may appear on the Florida ballot as the Reform Party candidate, got 3% in the poll, which surveyed 859 voters between Friday and Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Bush's support among registered voters dropped 4 percentage points between the most recent poll and one taken in mid-July, CNN said. ..

Ride Don’t Drive * * It’s Global Cool

[Shadder]

1. Gallup

Enough said.....

[trogdor]

7. CNN wants it close.

They're in the business of infotainment, not television journalism. A race that's decided two months before Election Day is about as exciting as a Monday Night Football matchup that involves the Cincinnati Bengals. It's a sad fact that the news is now subject to the ratings system; it results in more gossip, more sensationalism (look at the way CNN covered the Iraq war), and less actual news.

[pmbryant]

2. Trend lines are good in this poll, apparently

The key excerpt:

Bush's support among registered voters dropped 4 percentage points between the most recent poll and one taken in mid-July, CNN said.

Alas, they don't mention what happened with Kerry's support in that time.

--Peter

[NoBorders]

3. if cnn is reporting even, Kerry must be ahead -n/t

[KelleyKramer]

4. Gallup sucks

Their national polls are the complete opposite of every other major poll (even Fox!).

Gallup polls are a total waste of time and not worth the paper they are printed on.

That’s why the whores at CNN always use Gallup.

[JuniorPlankton]

6. Gallup is a decent and respectable organization

Yes, they produce outliers from time to time.
The problem, however, is with CNN and other whores misinterpreting the data.

[KelleyKramer]

12. Look here for yourself...

Here is a chart that shows all the major polls, Gallup stands alone and is way off the mark from EVERY other poll.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

[Proud2BAmurkin]

13. Yup. Gallup has been WAY off including in 2000

nt

[DCCyclone]

8. Here's the GOOD news from this Gallup poll......

The Gallup web site has its own story on this poll linked to the Gallup home page. Here is the web address for Gallup's story on this poll: http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=12814

This story, with the web address below, shows, among likely voters as opposed to registered voters, independents breaking to Kerry 51% to 36%.

Also, this same Gallup story shows that "likely" voters sampled broke down by registration as 41% Republican, 39% Democratic, and 20% independent. But Florida's July 2004 voter registration numbers show that 42% of Florida registered voters are Democrats, 38% are Republicans, and 17% are independents (with 3% belonging to minor parties). Here is the web address for Florida's most recent voter registration numbers: http://election.dos.state.fl.us/voterreg/affiliation.asp

The bottom line is that if Florida Democrats have their GOTV operation functioning well enough to get the actual turnout in the same proportion as voter registration, we will win Florida. :-)

[BadGimp]

5. That means a Bush win IN FLA come Nov is guarranteed

If you are paying attention to the stories comming out of FLA about the voter purge issues and the confusing ballots (again), then there is the touch screen voting machines... in warfare parlance they cal this triangulation of fire.

Kerry WILL NOT carry FLA in Nov no matter what.

I have $100 that says I am right...any takers?

Please understand I fuc#&%$g hate that this is happeneing but it has all been foretold. Don't hate the messenger..please.

BG

[Zynx]

9. I'll take that bet.

I bet that Kerry wins Florida.

[GalleryGod]

11. No thanks.

:wtf:

[progressivebydesign]

17. If they have confusing ballots again..

.. then the voter drive people, and our Party, needs to ramp up on ballot education.. and fast! A letter to the editor in as many papers as possible, with a phone number they can call. .or a website they can access to get help with the ballot, that just seems to be the only answer right now. Is it legal for a particular party to field calls to educate voters on these ballots, or on making sure they are NOT purged?

[Zynx]

10. Once again, their methodology is all wrong.

They have more Republicans than Democrats surveyed when in the 2000 Exit polls, the numbers were 40% Democrats, 38% Republicans, and 22% Independents. They have 41% Republicans, 39% Democrats, and 20% Independents.

[featherman]

14. Adjusting for methodology and bias

this is good news from Gallup, which tilts GOP. Just another indication that Kerry carries FL by about +3 - 4, if energized DEMS turn out.

[lfairban]

15. The good news is that Kerry has pulled ahead in . . .

. . . Wisconsin and Tennessee and is even in Missouri. The bad news is that Bush is now ahead in Ohio and West Virginia.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Aries]

16. Aren't WV and southern OH similar demographically?

So those states going together makes sense.

The question is, what is wrong with those folks?

[PATRICK]

18. Assuming fraud

The illusion of being close is not enough. Many of their tactics from 2000 have had to at least be scaled back, others stopped. Gore in real fairness captured tens of thousands of votes above Bush even with some of the clever e-voting machines not figured into the scam.

Bush is losing big support in Florida. Given a guess in that murk of lost and stolen votes Kerry should take the vote in the six figure range at least.

Desperate outright theft would have them crossing a lot of lines already noted from 2000. AND they must take a big chance on e-voting fraud, now under direct assault. The last time, nibbling at all the edges and pumping overseas ballots in AFTER the election they still didn't close the gap. So this time they need something big with the dilemma that overdoing it for a "safe" irrefutable margin makes it VERY refutable.

The only answer to this conundrum for the GOP is to look elsewhere for either: total confusion of the polls or creating a downturn in Kerry's support AND there must be a super dramatic event on the national or international(or both) scene.

Bush the lousy actor. If he is looking nervous but confident, even chipper, then the fix is in big time and something big is going to happen. They saw what happened in Spain, but maybe Aznar was not prepared when he tried to take advantage of the terrorist hit.

Look to team Bush for signs of despair, desperation, grim determination, relieved confidence. A positioning of their pieces like a chessboard before some incident. statements or worse, a withdrawn silence of expectation out of keeping with a hyper stage campaign.
If people are just drifting and morose, or making shrill defiant noises, that is a GOOD sign. Those people however must be close to the top. A de-energized, out of the loop organization expecting defeat will need time to capitalize on the event, but even now sordid speculations are preparing the media and their controls to react quickly and reflexively on Bush's behalf. Expect some surreptitious prepping of this necessary component which will also be a subtle giveaway. A swift, "fateful" comeback.

Maybe too paranoid. Maybe they will instead rely on a steadier flow of shocks, similar to the insane SBV ploy, instead of a last murderous and treasonous gamble. THEY have their own balance of internal fear to worry about. Fear of losing votes and support by doing something or nothing- which are both bad because they have little good they can do- or imagine. Maybe the people necessary to bail Bush out of evident defeat will pack it in- as is often the character of such in a real crisis.