Sadr Aide Tells Iraq Militia to Cease Fire -- TV

[cal04]

- A top aide to Iraq (news - web sites)'s rebel Shi'ite leader Moqtada al-Sadr called on the Mehdi Army militia Monday to cease fire across Iraq and said Sadr was preparing to announce plans for a major political program.


"Due to the situation in Najaf and the provinces ... we call on all members of the Mehdi Army to cease fire unless in self-defense, and to be patient until the political program which Sadr's followers are planning is revealed," Sheik Ali Smeisim told Lebanon's al-Manar television.

A peace deal last week ended three weeks of fighting in the Iraqi city of Najaf between Sadr's militia and U.S. and Iraqi forces, but there have been sporadic clashes elsewhere since then.

Iraq's interim government has often called on Sadr to lay down his arms and join the country's political process.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=578&e=3&u=/nm/20040830/ts_nm/iraq_sadr_dc

[Jack Rabbit]

1. If Iraqi elections are fair, then this will work

The Iraqi resistance enjoys popular support that the neocon collaborationists do not.

Of course, where the neocons are involved, fair elections are a very big IF. They don't believe in free and fair elections whether they are held in Iraq or Florida. With free and fair elections, one might get results like those in Venezuela. We can't have that, can we?

Don't expect the neocons to leave anything to chance.

[Teaser]

2. Which Iraqi resistance?

Sadr's resistance is not the (militarily more effective) resistance that controls Fallujah, Ramadi, Balad, et al.

An interesting observation that no one has noticed: There are distinctive phases of a guerilla war. The third (or is it second) phase begins when the resistance begins to cease and hold territory. The Sunni rebels are now at that stage.

[bemildred]

3. Time to regroup and rearm, plan the next moves.

Meantime might as well squeeze Allawi on the elections issue.
You are correct, this is a no-brainer for the Shiites, if there
are free and fair elections, they win, and if there are not free
and fair elections, it's back to the guerilla war, resupplied.
refreshed, and with fresh troops to fill the ranks. In case anybody
has not noticed, the government is being pushed back and agreeing
to larger and larger autonomous zones, and the government has shown
no sign at all of being able to make the perps pay, although there
are plenty of dead people littered about. By pushing the democracy
issue now, when the Summer heat is over and the election and Ramadan
are coming up, it will be clear as day what the situation is and
whether it is time for another big insurgent push, or not. My bets
are all on Allawi giving up when he dragged away feet first, and
not before.

[cspiguy]

4. I think we will see Allawi frog walked out of his office as Sadr is sworn

in as the new president. Then the US will be asked to leave - in front of UN reps and next years Shia pilgramage will be the biggest in history. Then Iran and Iraq will sign a series of treaties, resulting in a "energy conservation program" that will reduce oil exports by 50%. Then "peaceful" nuclear power technology will be gleefully shared, right around the time of Saddam's execution. Then you had better own a decent bicycle. Then maybe Zarqawi might show himself as Iraq's new defense minister.

The future looks interesting, by the standards of the related ancient chinese curse.