STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 1 September

[ozymandius]

Wednesday September 1, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 141
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 62
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 264 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 318 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 531
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1014
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 31, 2004

Dow... 10,173.92 +51.40 (+0.51%)
Nasdaq... 1,838.10 +1.61 (+0.09%)
S&P 500... 1,104.24 +5.09 (+0.46%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.13% -0.06 (-1.34%)
Gold future... 412.40 +1.70 (+0.41%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.91 Change -0.03 (-0.03%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1094022119-9e32d306-11570

Forex - Dollar little changed vs yen, euro in Singapore ahead of US jobs data

SINGAPORE (XFN-ASIA) - The US dollar continued to tread water but remained above the 109 level against the yen in afternoon trade ahead of the US August non-farm payrolls data to be released Friday, dealers said

They added that like the yen, the euro is likely to remain rangebound ahead of the jobs data

At 2.20 pm (0620 GMT), the dollar stood at 109.23 yen, slightly lower against 109.27 in Tokyo earlier after moving between 108.97-109.32

The euro stood at 1.2176 usd, from 1.2180 in Tokyo, off a low of 1.2167 and a high of 1.2196

A dealer at a regional bank said that overnight, the dollar had fallen below the 109 level as market participants squared their dollar positions ahead of the all- important US jobs data

The weakness in the dollar overnight was also exacerbated by the weaker- than-expected Chicago PMI and consumer confidence data

"We are seeing a bit of unwinding of long dollar positions today but I think that the market is, at the moment, looking for leads until the job figures are released on Friday," he said

The dealer added that after two months of disappointing non-farm payrolls data, the market is expecting the August numbers to be weak

"But there are still not many (dollar) shorts at this stage," he added

Currently, the market has forecast August payrolls at around 150,000, within a range of 50,000 to 300,000 and anything under 150,000 would be negative for the dollar, dealers said

...more...

http://money.cnn.com/2004/09/01/news/fortune500/freddie_mac.reut/

Court to Freddie Mac: pay ex-CEO
Federal housing office cannot freeze $54.2M owed to Brendsel, who left amid an accounting scandal.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The government agency that regulates Freddie Mac cannot freeze $54.2 million in pay owed to the chief executive who stepped down last year amid an accounting scandal at the mortgage finance company, a judge ruled late Monday.

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, which also oversees Freddie Mac's sister institution Fannie Mae, made the company withhold payment to Leland Brendsel and other executives after accounting problems at the company came to light last year.

But U.S. District Court Judge Richard Leon told the OFHEO it did not have Congressional authority to force Freddie Mac to freeze Brendsel's pay and benefits while it seeks civil penalties and restitution.

"OFHEO's arguments that it has the power to freeze assets pending the outcome of the administrative proceeding in this case is simply overreaching," Leon wrote.

As it stands, Brendsel's frozen pay package includes $8.7 million in salary and bonuses, $16.5 million in stock and options under an employee purchase plan and $21 million in previously restricted stock and options.

...more...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20040901/RSOFT01/TPBusiness/TopStories

Another softwood victory for Canada

OTTAWA and VANCOUVER -- A NAFTA panel has ruled in Canada's favour for the third time in the softwood lumber dispute and ordered the U.S. government to stop fighting the rulings and take action that would end the trade battle.

Yesterday's ruling goes to the heart of the softwood lumber dispute because it decides whether the U.S. can justify the tariffs it slaps on Canadian timber.

The North American free- trade agreement panel ruled once again that the United States had failed to prove that Canadian lumber imports are harming the U.S. industry.

If it can't prove Canadian timber is a threat, Washington is obliged to remove the 27.2-per-cent duty it imposes on lumber from Canada. These levies have cost this country's lumber companies about $2.7- billion (U.S.) to date. It would also have to return the duties.

<snip>

Arbitrators hearing the case also had unusually harsh words for the U.S. International Trade Commission, accusing it of "undermining" dispute settlement under the North American free-trade agreement.

"The commission has made it abundantly clear to this panel that it is simply unwilling to accept this panel's review authority under Chapter 19 of the NAFTA and has consistently ignored the authority of this panel in an effort to preserve its finding of threat of material injury," panelists wrote. "This conduct obviates the impartiality of the agency decision- making process, and severely undermines the entire Chapter 19 panel review process."

...more...

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0409010189sep01,1,7276491.story?coll=chi-business-hed

EU, allies get OK to fine U.S.
Byrd amendment draws $150 million

BRUSSELS -- The World Trade Organization on Tuesday authorized the European Union and seven other leading American trading partners to impose more than $150 million worth of sanctions against the U.S.

The ruling allows the complainants to fine the U.S. up to 72 percent of money collected from foreign exporters under the so-called Byrd amendment.

That legislation, dating from 2000, empowers Washington to hand over to U.S. companies the duties imposed on foreign firms judged to be unfairly dumping cheap goods on the U.S. market. A statement from the eight complainants estimated that money totaled about $240 million last year.

"It is clear that the Byrd amendment is a WTO-incompatible response to dumping . . . and must therefore go," said EU Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy.

However, the EU and the other complainants--Japan, Brazil, Canada, Chile, India, South Korea and Mexico--indicated they would hold off on imposing sanctions. Instead, they are likely to use the threat of retaliation to press Congress for an early repeal of the legislation.

A joint statement from all eight said they could "exercise their retaliatory rights at any time deemed appropriate."

...more...

http://www.newratings.com/new2/beta/article_462382.html

Hollinger International "looted;" special committee submits report

NEW YORK, September 1 (New Ratings) - According to a special committee report, Conrad M Black and other controlling shareholders "looted" Hollinger International (HLR.NYS) during 1997-2003.

A special committee, comprising new directors of Hollinger International's board, submitted their report yesterday. The report revealed that the company's former chairman and chief executive, Conrad M Black, and controlling shareholders have taken more than $400 million of the company's money, equal to approximately 95% of the company's adjusted net income during 1997-2003. Richard N Perle, former chairman of Hollinger International's Internet investing subsidiary, took more than $5.4 million in bonuses and compensation. According to media reports today, the special committee has suggested that Mr. Perle should be asked to refund this amount to the company. Mr. Perle reportedly collected significant sums of money without disclosing these payments to the company's shareholders and entered agreements without prior approval by the audit committee or by independent directors.

...more...

Today's reports:

Sep 01 10:00 AM
Construction Spending Jul
report -
briefing.com anticipates 0.2%
market anticipates 0.4%
last report -0.3%
revised -

Sep 01 10:00 AM
ISM Index Aug
report -
briefing.com anticipates 60.5
market anticipates 60.0
last report 62.0
revised -

Sep 01 12:00 AM
Auto Sales Aug
report -
briefing.com anticipates 5.5M
market anticipates 5.4M
last report 5.5M
revised -

Sep 01 12:00 AM
Truck Sales Aug
report -
briefing.com anticipates 8.5M
market anticipates 8.2M
last report 8.4M
revised -

Great 'toon, Ozy! Hope all went well with your studio closing :( - I am so conflicted - want all good things for you, am so sorry that your studio is closed.

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[ozymandius]

3. Thanks UIA.

The closing went okay. I have a mountain of material to comb through here at home. Some unfinished pieces await my attention (pieces for fun, not profit) as most are in their finishing stages. Luckily, we have a large weathered-in balcony that will allow me to work in my spare time. (Though I have promised my wife that the balcony would not look junky.)

The landlord has allowed a couple of days to clean up. The dumpsters are maxed out. So I will venture off around 10am to throw out more material - provided the trash collection ran this morning.

Thanks for your kindness. Same goes to 54anickel's comments yesterday. It really hurts to see five years of effort end this way. But then it is a relief, as well.

Ozy

[ozymandius]

2. WrapUp by Ike Iossif

<<Lotsa charts and some good writing.>>

Given what we just described, there are three scenarios that in our view can take place going forward.

1) Since the current advance is displaying the characteristics of a short-covering rally, more than likely that is what it will turn out to be. If that is the case, real buyers who are committed to the long side need to step up to the plate and begin buying; otherwise, once the short-sellers are done covering in the absence of new buying interest, the rally will be abruptly aborted. Our Buy/Sell Equilibrium Indexes are indicating that given the current rate of short-covering, short-sellers will be done sometime this week. Consequently, the indices may get--in the coming week--a boost of 1.5% to 2.0%, courtesy of short sellers covering the remaining of their short positions. However, unless real buyers come into the market after the holiday weekend and push prices higher, 1.5%-2.0% is all that the current rally has left in it under the existing circumstances. NO RALLY CAN CONTINUE MUCH LONGER AT THE CURRENT RATE OF DECREASE IN VOLUME ON A DAILY BASIS.

2) How about if we are not dealing with a short-covering rally; how about if the bulk of the buying that we have witnessed the last 11 days is from real buyers; does that change anything? Does the picture turn bullish? Actually, NO! If the action of the past eleven days reflects real buying, instead of short-covering, then the markets could be in deep trouble rather shortly. Why? Because, there are only two explanations for such low participation; either a large number of traders/investors haven't return from their vacations yet, or almost everybody is already fully invested expecting the much advertised but elusive election year rally, and thus, there are very few--if any--left to buy. If that is the case, then the markets can experience a rather large decline unfolding over the next 3-5 weeks. NO RALLY CAN CONTINUE MUCH LONGER AT THE CURRENT RATE OF DECREASE IN VOLUME ON A DAILY BASIS.

3) The third possible scenario--and the most bullish of the three--is that many institutional/ individual investors are still on vacation, thus, although the markets may pull back to support this week, the week after when all these willing, ready and able buyers come back, they will provide the demand necessary to carry the markets higher into the election, or even into the end of the year.

[54anickel]

17. Here's the link -

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/tuesday.htm

[54anickel]

18. But, but, but Ozy, in yesterday's blather we learned that they were

going to do some changes to the indexes last night. If this is a short covering rally, and what's needed is to entice buyers back in, if they switched listings into the indexes to stocks that could (for whatever reason) be expected to entice buyers at this particular time, wouldn't that sort of "fake out" a lot of buyers? Or am I wearing the tinfoil too tightly again?

[UpInArms]

4. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

09:13 ET S&P futures vs fair value: -0.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: - 3.5. Near its worst levels of the morning, the futures trade portends a weaker open for the cash market.

08:56 ET S&P futures vs fair value: -0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: - 3.5. Futures indications continue to drift lower, and now the indices appear poised for a slightly lower open... Conviction on the part of buyers and sellers remains weak as volume totals continue to end at, or near, yearly lows.

08:29 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +0.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: - 2.5. Still looking like a quiet open for the cash market with the futures trade hugging fair value... A rise in the price of crude oil stemming from a pipeline fire in Iraq, weaker than expected FY04 guidance from BSX, and a set of economic data (July Construction Spending and August ISM) due out at 10 ET have kept buying in check.

07:59 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: - 1.5. The futures are calling for a relatively flat open that comes following the market's late-day rally yesterday... Europe (London's FTSE +0.7%) and Asia (Hong Kong's Hang Seng +1.4%) have responded in kind and supported the indices' higher open this morning... So far, this week has held true to the same neutral to positive trade seen over the past two weeks.

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1374.10. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short- term has likely been posted. If September extends this week's decline, the 20-day moving average crossing at 1351.78 is the next downside target. The September NASDAQ 100 was down 2.50 pt. at 1367.50 as of 5:56 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 50% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1103.05 and the 10-day moving average crossing at 1100.99. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought hinting that a short- term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 40-day moving average crossing at 1094.31 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If this month's rally resumes, the 62% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1113.16 is the next upside target. The September S&P 500 Index was up 0.30 pts. at 1104.40 as of 5:58 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

Gotta run and make hay while the sun shines today - will drop in later and see what's going on :hi:

[UpInArms]

5. FOREX-Dollar mired just above recent lows on data worry

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=MTFH23986_2004-09-01_11-48-22_L01455375

LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) - The dollar struggled on Wednesday to rise from the previous day's six-week lows versus the yen and a one-week trough against the euro brought on by weak U.S. data, as caution remained high ahead of other key releases.

Analysts have been expecting the August Institute of Supply Management index, due at 1400 GMT, to edge down to 60.0 from July's 62.0, and Tuesday's sharper than expected fall in the Chicago purchasing management index may have heightened worries.

A steeper than expected fall in the Conference Board's consumer confidence measure also hit sentiment on Tuesday, but investors remained cautious about selling the dollar aggressively ahead of Friday's U.S. employment report.

"People are still waiting for this payrolls number as the big final important number that is going to prove the U.S. economy is finally going to rebound from its slight slump and justify the Fed's actions," said Matthew van Dyckhoff, foreign exchange sales manager at Brown Brothers Harriman in London.

"But there is a lot of scepticism out there, especially after the soft data yesterday," he said.

...more...

The "final" which corner have we turned question?

(am really gone this time :D )

[ret5hd]

6. a question for the experts...

on investing in my 401k

if this is not appropriate here, read no further.

i am 45

i have less than a 100k involved.

a year or so ago, i pulled about 95% of my funds out of stocks and put it in the "money market" fund, essentially a savings account type fund with a guaranteed (but small) return. i really felt the market was going to crash, and still worry about that.

the market dropped, and now has risen to about the level it was when i put everything in the money market fund.

given these scant facts, am i being a fool to leave the majority of my funds in the money market account?

[54anickel]

7. Good morning Ret5hd,

I am no expert, and if you've been a regular visitor to the SMW thread you know that I have a bias on this issue.

It's fairly well known that investment advice is a taboo here. However, I believe answering your question would be allowable and you probably already know the answer.

Your investment decision should be based on your comfort level. That's one of the reasons so many of the 401K websites have those cute little quizes to help you determine what that level is. Your comfort level will, or at least should change, not just with your age but also your knowledge of the current economic situation.

With that said, are you a fool? No, I don't believe so. These are dangerous times. What's that old saying about a fool parting ways with his or her money? The old mantra for 401K investing was buy and hold. But remember that 401K's were first instituted during a secular bull market. The tide appears to be changing - caution and sitting on the sidelines might not be a bad thing. (It's good enough for Warren Buffett ;-)

Go with your gut for now and stay informed. That's the best advice I can think of.

[ret5hd]

12. thnx 54anickel

i'm not a regular reader of this thread, and i will keep in mind that investment advise is taboo. thanks for the info.

my problem (and the root of my whole dilemma) is that i find it impossible to "stay informed". i feel that the media reporting is biased, even purposefully misleading to the average investor, while the inside track is given to those in the know. am i wrong? my gut says "run", but how is the small guy going to get even a little ahead without some investments? (rhetorical question)


again, thanks.

[54anickel]

15. Ahh, I see. Yes, it's is hard to stay informed. And while you notice

that the media reporting is biased in one direction, you'll find most of us here at the SMW may be a bit biased in the other direction, posting articles that contradict the mass media "bull market" claims.

If you have the time, look back to the last few days worth of this thread and you will see what I mean. It may create mixed feelings or cause even more confusion, but you will definitely get a good dose of the other side of that bull market claim.

[bain_sidhe]

33. Watch insider sales, if you can find the info

a repost of some charts from a couple of weeks ago, in response to the information that "insider sales" were at an all time high:

(quote from a post in an earlier thread found here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=759286#760266 )

In the past six months, we have seen more corporate insiders cash out their options than any time in history.

reminded me of a couple of graphs I saw in the Kevin Phillips book I just finished (Wealth and Democracy)

Because the graphs cover different time periods, I've helpfully outlined the corresponding time frames:

"
as householders who had abandoned stocks during the silent crash of 1966-82 were lured back in...

"
...the insiders sold out to Mr. and Ms. J.Q. Public, leaving ordinary citizens holding the bag. (when the market crashed in 2001 - me)

I've typed in Phillip's text "commentary" under the graphs because they didn't scan well. These charts are from a series of six on page 363 (in the hardcover edition) and represent (per the credit line) "Separately published charts in Barron's national financial weekly, with commentaries by the author."

[patcox2]

42. Could this also have to do with explosion of options as compensation?

I mean, over that same period, executives started to be given options as compensation, and that trend accelerated and continues to do so. I am ignorant of most things financial, but wouldn't the sale of the options by executives cause that increase in selling by insiders?

[bain_sidhe]

47. Possibly... it's hard to tell from the book

because it doesn't define the terms "insiders" or "sales" used in the chart. But whether these insiders were selling already owned stock or cashing in options (which essentially entails buying the stock at the option price, then immediately selling it at the higher market price) the point, I think, remains the same - the "people in the know" were selling at a time when the stock value was still rising - when by "holding on" they could *supposedly* make even MORE money - and the people *not* in the know were buying - to be left holding the bag when the prices dropped. It's the same thing Ken Lay did at Enron (cashing in his options while the price appeared to be rising), and that Georgie did at Harken.

(Sorry it took so long to respond... my cable modem's been going in and out for a few days now, and I can't get a new one (at least not for "free") until Friday.)

**edit: tyop**

[llmart]

22. At least Ret5hd has an option in his 401K for guaranteed fund....

I manage my husband's 401K and he works for one of the big three auto makers. They did away with the one guaranteed income fund in 2001. Now we're forced to invest in stocks or bonds. I read an article about a year ago in one of the business magazines (I believe it was featured on the front cover) questioning whether 401K's were a good thing. I think it was in "Business Week" but I'm not sure. As I read the article I kept saying to myself, "that's exactly how I've always felt about them." It was shoved down our throats by the media that everyone should invest in their 401K. It still is.

I say under the mattress or a good old-fashioned passbook savings is better than the stock market:)

[54anickel]

8. Oil Rebounds After 8-Day Slide on Blaze

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?jsessionid=Y4KJ5U0YZEM1MCRBAEKSFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=6122756

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Wednesday, stemming an eight-session slide that has dragged prices down 14 percent from record highs as news emerged of a fresh pipeline fire in Iraq.
U.S. light crude climbed 53 cents to $42.65 a barrel, almost $7 below the record high of $49.40 struck on Aug 20. London's Brent crude was up 48 cents at $40.09 a barrel.

Concerns have abated in recent days that tightly stretched supplies could be severely disrupted at a time when oil demand is growing at the fastest rate in 24 years.

Traders got a reminder of possible disruption to oil flows with news that an oil pipeline was on fire in northern Iraq on Wednesday in the vicinity of the main Kirkuk-Ceyhan export route.

A Reuters photographer saw smoke rising from the pipeline in the lawless Hadar area west of the city of Mosul. There was no confirmation on whether the export pipeline that runs from the Kirkuk fields to Turkey was the one that was on fire.

more...

[54anickel]

9. Crude Oil Rises on Expected Drop in U.S. Gasoline Inventories

Just in time for the long holiday weekend again. I was wondering when they get around to it. It just wouldn't be a holiday without a bump in gas prices, tradition and all ya know.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=aOaoP.WIlxAc&refer=latin_america

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures rose from a one- month low in London on expectations a report later today will show U.S. gasoline inventories declined last week.

The U.S. uses about a tenth of global oil supplies for gasoline. Peak demand lasts until next weekend's Labor Day holiday. Crude stockpiles may have fallen as well, for the fifth straight week, as refiners build up supplies of heating fuel before cold weather.

``There's still enough concern that a drop in crude inventories may make the market a bit jumpy before winter,'' said Veronica Smart, an analyst at Energy Information Centre, a U.K.- based consulting company.

snip>

Yesterday's decline drew traders who watch charts to predict price movements and who buy and sell contracts based on so-called technical analysis. The closest-to-settlement Brent contract closed yesterday below the average price for the past 40 days, the first time that had happened since July 5.

``Prices came back too far too quickly, and a technical balance is to be expected,'' said Bruce Evers, an analyst at Investec Henderson Crosthwaite in London.

The U.S. Energy Department's weekly report will probably show gasoline supplies fell 1.05 million barrels last week from 205.7 million in the week ended Aug. 20, according to the median forecast of 13 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Stockpiles of crude may have dropped by 400,000 barrels from 291.3 million. The report is due at 10:30 a.m. Washington time.

more...

[54anickel]

10. Record Labor Day gas prices loom

http://money.cnn.com/2004/09/01/pf/autos/gas_prices.reut/index.htm

AAA says you'll pay more for your last-minute summer road trip, with little relief in sight.
September 1, 2004: 8:08 AM EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A record number of Americans planning one last summer road trip this weekend will shell out the highest Labor Day gasoline prices ever seen, and there's little relief in sight, according to government and private analysts.

A shortage of domestic refineries and ever-growing demand in the United States is likely to turn this summer's sticker-shock at the pumps into a routine of higher fuel costs for years to come, analysts said Tuesday.

"We are going to see higher (summertime) gasoline prices for the foreseeable future," said Doug MacIntyre, analyst for the U.S. Energy Information Administration. "Not as high as they are now, but higher than our pre-2004 experience."

About 28.7 million of the 34.1 million Americans expected to travel at least 50 miles from home this weekend will be driving, according to a AAA survey, up 2 percent from last year.

Both figures, for driving and overall traveling forecast, would be records, the AAA said.

more...

[54anickel]

11. U.S. August ISM Manufacturing Index Falls to 59 From 62

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aQQd87E5nmvY&refer=home

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. manufacturing expanded at a slower-than-expected pace in August, an industry report showed.

The Institute for Supply Management's factory index last month fell to 59 from 62 in July. The index has shown expansion, marked by readings higher than 50, since June 2003.

Rising costs for energy and other raw materials may be causing companies to trim production and spending. The decline suggests higher costs will make it difficult for companies to expand and the economy to accelerate after a second-quarter lull.

``Softer economic statistics and the influence of high energy prices have probably led to cautious attitudes on the part of executives,'' said Michael Moran, chief U.S. economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc., in New York, before the report.

Economists expected a reading of 60 in the factory index.....

more...

[UpInArms]

14. here's the report details

(had to come in and find out what it said)

http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20040901005403&newsLang=en

employment part:

Employment

ISM's Employment Index grew for the 10th consecutive month,
following a 37-month trend of contraction. The index
registered 55.7 percent in August compared to 57.3 percent in
July, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points. An Employment Index
above 48 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an
increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on
manufacturing employment. The 11 industries reporting growth
in employment during August are: Miscellaneous(a); Furniture;
Rubber & Plastic Products; Primary Metals; Industrial
& Commercial Equipment & Computers; Electronic
Components & Equipment; Wood & Wood Products;
Instruments & Photographic Equipment; Food; Chemicals; and
Transportation & Equipment.


Employment              %Higher    %Same    %Lower    Net   
Index

August 2004                24        61       15       +9   
55.7
July 2004                  25        65       10      +15   
57.3
June 2004                  35        56        9      +26   
59.7
May 2004                   36        57        7      +29   
61.9

(it doesn't appear that employment is improving if you look at
the comparative numbers)

[54anickel]

13. Treasuries show surprising strength

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/bonds/2004-08-31-bonds_x.htm

NEW YORK — This was supposed to be the year the bond bubble finally burst. But bonds are still soaring and have posted better gains than stocks.

So far this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note has posted a total return — price appreciation plus dividend — of roughly 3.7%, says Mario DeRose, fixed-income strategist at Edward Jones. That translates into a $370 profit on a $10,000 investment. It's not a huge gain, but it beats the $4 Lipper Analytics says you'd have lost this year investing the same amount in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index.

snip>

"I don't recall anyone saying at the start of the year that bonds were going to outperform stocks and yields would be lower, not higher," DeRose says.

Early in the year, pundits ticked off reasons why bond yields, which had plunged to four-decade lows in 2003, would start rising. The Federal Reserve was on the verge of raising short-term interest rates, they argued. And inflation, which erodes the value of bonds, could spike higher as the economy gained steam. Those predictions came true, and the price of the 10-year note did fall, boosting yields to nearly 5% in mid-June. But investors piled back into Treasuries early in July. What changed?

more....

[54anickel]

16. 10:56 numbers

Dow 10,190.37 +16.45 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 1,856.60 +18.50 (+1.01%)
S&P 500 1,107.70 +3.46 (+0.31%)
10-yr Bond 4.147% +0.015
30-yr Bond 4.948% +0.01
NYSE Volume 321,874,000
Nasdaq Volume 512,871,000

10:30AM: After initially shying away, buyers make their way to the market following the in line July Construction Spending report and slightly weaker than expected August ISM Index... Although the figure came in at 59.0 (consensus of 60.0), it still marked the 15th straight month of expansion in national manufacturing (with a reading higher than 50)... Prices paid showed a noticeable increase as a result of rising commodity and energy costs... As of now, just about every industry group is in the green, with the only notable exception being banking...NYSE Adv/Dec 1754/1066, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1710/849
10:00AM: Major indices trade around the flat line as the blue chips slip into negative territory... The Nasdaq flew through the roof at the open - soaring as high as 17 points in the first five minutes - but has calmed down and settled just above the unchanged mark... The initial burst was attributed to an aggressive buy program at a Tier One brokerage firm... Advancers are outpacing decliners at the NYSE and Nasdaq by a comfortable margin, and up volume is leading down volume by an approximately 2-to-1 margin...

July Construction Spending and August ISM have just been released at the top of the hour and came in at +0.4% (consensus +0.4%) and 59.0 (consensus 60.0), respectively... The market has weakened some off the ISM number...NYSE Adv/Dec 1755/751, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1363/974

9:45AM: Equities start the day with plus signs, although most of that comes on account of a strong technology sector... The area is boasting gains of 0.5-1.5% as buyers have flocked to the group following a relatively weak showing yesterday... The broader market has not fared quite as well, as selling has persisted in financial, telecom, and health care...News items this morning have been few and far between, with the most influential announcement being Boston Scientific's (BSX 36.66 +0.93) sales guidance and Taxus update - the latter of which carried a positive tone...

At 10 ET, the market will receive its two economic reports of the day (July Construction Spending and August ISM)... The consensus estimates are set at +0.4% and 60.0, respectively...

[54anickel]

19. U.S. Companies Speed Up Buyback Pace

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-Buybacks-Back.html

NEW YORK (AP) -- With the stock market languishing, U.S. companies are shoring up their shares by buying them back at nearly double the pace they did last year.

U.S. companies this year have said they will buy back $171.51 billion in stock, according to mutual-fund research firm TrimTabs, nearly twice the $92.84 billion in repurchases announced by this time last year. Companies haven't been this eager to buy back stock since 1997, when $235.72 billion of repurchases were announced, according to data compiled by Dealogic.

``This is exactly the opposite of what I would have expected to see,'' says Robert Willens, a tax and accounting expert at Lehman Brothers. ``I'm very surprised to hear that buybacks have increased so dramatically when the tax bias to buybacks has been eliminated.''

For years, the tax rate on dividends was higher than the rate on buybacks. Last year, the government brought the tax rates in line, which is why some analysts wonder why buybacks are on the rise.

For one thing, the increase in stock repurchases comes as the Standard & Poor's 500 Index struggles to hold onto the stellar gains of 2003. This time last year, the index was up 13 percent on the year. This year it's down about 1 percent. This sluggishness is raising questions about whether corporate executives are using buybacks to fill the void.

more...

[54anickel]

20. Exotic debt traders turn to Cuba

I find this information rather disturbing in light of our current greedy, regime change crazy maladministration. :tinfoilhat:

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/80b72ff6-fb8a-11d8-8ad5-00000e2511c8.html

Fidel Castro's expectations of capitalism are not high. But even he must be galled to know that speculators are running long positions in Havana's sovereign debt, waiting for him to die.

Cuban sovereign paper is known as “hyper exotic” in default and owed by a country with a politically isolated regime. Other members of the club include Sudan and North Korea.

This tiny sector of the international bond market is highly illiquid, with under $1bn of turnover in the first quarter, less than 0.1 per cent of emerging market debt activity, according to the Emerging Markets Traders Association, a US-based body. But, like distressed corporate debt, hyper-exotics can offer spectacular returns.

Vietnam is the textbook example. In the early 1990s its hard currency debt traded at 4 cents per dollar of face value. By 1996,Hanoi had come in fromthe political cold, havingre-established US diplomatic relations and reached apreliminary agreement with the London Club of private creditors.

snip>

The search for “the next Vietnam” is focused on two countries. Largest by activity is Cuba, whose debt turned over $256m in the first quarter. Currently priced at up to 12.5 cents,its sensitivity to US relations is high. In the year toFebruary 1994 prices trebled to 33 cents on hopes that President Clinton would promote a Vietnam-style reconciliation.

A diplomatic thaw with the US remains possible John Kerry voted against the Helms-Burton Law in 1996. But many, including “some pretty powerful names”, according to Henry Avis-Vieira of WesBruin Capital, are simply betting on the inevitable: mortality.

snip>

Even exotics specialists still focused on sovereign debt might have to adapt to a changing world. One member of the “axis of evil”, Iran, issued debt in 2002 yielding only 3 per cent over US Treasuries. Given a dramatic deterioration in the US's fiscal position, perhaps those betting on US-induced “regime change” in Tehran should be short, not long, Iranian debt.

[54anickel]

21. United looks at cutting 6,000 more jobs

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/8585bc00-fb94-11d8-8ad5-00000e2511c8.html

United Airlines, the bankrupt US carrier, is considering plans to cut an additional 6,000 jobs - 10 per cent of its workforce - and take another $655m out of annual operating costs, as part of a more radical overhaul of its business plan.


The airline needs aggressive changes after the Airline Transportation Stabilisation Board rejected its application for a $1.6bn federal loan guarantee at the end of June.

United is now dependent on the capital markets for financing to enable it to emerge from bankruptcy protection, where it has been since November 2002.

According to people familiar with the discussions, the airline is preparing a new plan that Glenn Tilton, chief executive, will take to United's board at the end of September.

Meanwhile, the airline’s flight attendants’ union on Tuesday said it had no confidence in Mr Tilton and his team, citing management’s plans to cut pensions.

more...

[54anickel]

23. Report Details 'Kleptocracy' at Newspaper Firm

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A50704-2004Aug31.html

Press tycoon Conrad M. Black and other top Hollinger International Inc. officials pocketed more than $400 million in company money over seven years and Black's handpicked board of directors passively approved many of the transactions, a company investigation concluded.

A report by a special board committee singled out director Richard N. Perle, a former Defense Department official, who received $5.4 million in bonuses and compensation. The report said Perle should return the money to the Chicago company.

The report also criticized the board's audit committee, which includes former Illinois governor James R. Thompson and former ambassador Richard R. Burt, for failing to question Black's large management fees. It said it was reasonable for former secretary of state Henry Kissinger, another independent director, to rely on the audit committee.

Black's holding company said the report was filled with "outright lies."

Black resigned in November after an internal investigation showed that he and associates, mainly chief operating officer F. David Radler, received money that the company should have kept. Hollinger International is suing Black -- a native of Canada who is now a British citizen -- and others for $1.25 billion in damages for their alleged pillaging of the company, which owns the Chicago Sun-Times, the Jerusalem Post and other newspapers. It recently sold London's Daily Telegraph.

The new report, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission late Monday, added details of what it called the "corporate kleptocracy" Black and Radler created at Hollinger. It said they treated the company as a "piggybank" and fashion accessory, with Black using the prestige of the newspapers to gain access to the wealthy, powerful and royal.

more...

[KoKo]

24. Incredible article! and Kissinger's name comes up. Is there no end to

these "profiteers" who've been using their government connections to profit since Nixon's time? The BFEE and the Reagan Administrations Crime Family Empire joined together at the hip...tentacles everywhere.

Ugh...makes me feel like I need a bath after reading that...

[54anickel]

25. Mogambo - warning: pretty nasty rant again today

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty090104.html

But since we were talking about inflation, an article in the 8/11-9/3 Economist magazine entitled "Nought To Worry About" is a case in point. Namely, the debasement of the Turkish Lira by their central bank has gotten so bad that they are forced to scrap their old, worthless currency, and will issue a "New Turkish lira" that will replace the old devalued lira at a rate of 1,000 to one. The cartoon accompanying the article was a drawing of a guy slicing zeroes off of a roll of currency, a roll that looks like a roll of toilet paper! Hahaha! "Not all poems are written with a pen!"

snip>

Well, apparently Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley knew, and in fact he is on record as saying "Moreover, by subsidizing the US interest rate structure, foreign buyers of dollar-denominated assets are encouraging cut-rate refinancing of sharply appreciating property. Such equity extraction has been key to the monetization of the wealth effect of the incomeand saving-short American consumer. Who could ask for more? The record of history is quite clear in asking for more. So are the equilibrating tendencies of macro theory. Ever-widening current account deficits and ever-falling domestic saving rates are simply not sustainable developments for any economy. All foreign and US officials can do in such a climate is step up their efforts in containing sharp adjustments in asset prices and attempt to buy time."

This "sharp adjustments" means "values go down," which means "investors lose money," which is the dreaded deflation we were talking about.

"Buy time," he says. He says that all public officials can do at this point is "buy time." I can see by your face that, being the adorable and curious little grasshopper that you are, sitting in rapt attention at the feet of The Mogambo, you would like to know what is the price of this bought time. Let me steal an old line and tell you that if you have to ask, then you cannot afford it. No one ever has been able to afford it, and that is why those idiot countries that tried to "buy time" all failed in the attempt.

He goes on to say "There can be little doubt as to why foreign policy makers -- especially those in Asia -- have intensified their campaign to support the dollar; lacking in domestic demand and fearful that their external demand support would be eroded by stronger home currencies, they simply can't afford to face the alternative. There is a worrisome precedent for this shifting mix of foreign capital inflows from private to official funding. The last time it happened in the context of a US current account problem was in the months leading up to the stock market crash in October 1987." So the rapid increase in Official Custody Holdings at the Fed by foreign central banks is a redux of the market crash of 1987? Gaaahhhhh!

more...

[UpInArms]

26. auto sales (more hit and run posting)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aOtv5hpzSrKE&refer=news_index

Ford Motor and DaimlerChrysler Say Aug. U.S. Auto Sales Dropped

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co. and DaimlerChrysler AG said August U.S. sales declined as record gasoline prices and a drop in consumer confidence slowed business.

Ford, the second-biggest U.S. automaker, said sales of cars and trucks dropped 13 percent in August to 271,394 vehicles. The number of cars sold fell 26 percent and the number trucks decreased 6.5 percent, the Dearborn, Michigan- based company said in a statement.

DaimlerChrysler, the world's fifth-largest automaker, said total U.S. sales fell 5.7 percent to 196,018. The Stuttgart-based company sold 178,034 Chrysler vehicles, a decrease of 6.5 percent from the same month last year, the company said in a statement. Sales of Mercedes- Benz luxury vehicles rose 2.3 percent to 17,984.

...a bit more...

[54anickel]

27. Bonus program at Shell revised

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2772072

The Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Companies is changing how it rewards employees.

Starting in January, staff bonuses will be simplified to take into account individual accomplishments and companywide performance. Success at the division level will no longer be a factor.

snip>

Under the current bonus structure, managers over certain divisions or geographical areas have been able to make extra large bonuses even if the overall company isn't performing nearly as well.

Alienating star performers is a big concern any time incentive payments become more team-oriented, says Chris Crawford, a managing director with compensation consultantcy Longnecker & Associates. But bonus changes of this magnitude could indicate that the company has experienced growing pains from treating each business like its own mini-fiefdom.

"This may be Shell's way to create cross-pollination to support each other instead of treating every division as its own silo," he says.

Bala Dharan, a professor with Rice University's Graduate School of Management, says energy companies have to come up with ways to spur managers to discover more oil.

He thinks Shell's new model will still have to offer added incentives for finding oil and gas reserves in some way, even if that means building the reserve factor into the companywide portion of the bonus equation.

"They all need to face the problem of procedures used internally to measure reserve quantities to prevent people from manipulating numbers," Dharan says.

more...

[54anickel]

28. 1:03 update (Dow had sudden drop as I type to .074)

Dow 10,179.38 +5.46 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,851.76 +13.66 (+0.74%)
S&P 500 1,106.62 +2.38 (+0.22%)
10-yr Bond 4.138% +0.006
30-yr Bond 4.937% -0.001
NYSE Volume 585,398,000
Nasdaq Volume 821,643,000

12:55PM : Not much change since the last update - or the past three hours for that matter... Tech remains a dominant force and has grossly (+0.7%) outperformed every blue chip group today... Another area marching higher has been the small-caps... The Russell 2000 Index has soared 1% as small-cap, growth stocks have lured buyers off the sidelines... Small-caps have performed well over 2002-2003, and although they have given back some this year, they continue to lead the Dow in terms of relative performance...
Thanks to their strong showing, more investors have diversified their portfolios to include (what is considered) more high risk/high return small cap shares...NYSE Adv/Dec 2066/1116, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1870/1017

12:30PM : Major indices continue to show modest to hefty gains for the day as market internals remain positive... Most sectors have participated in the advance, generally matching the gains seen on the S&P 500 or Nasdaq... Auto is one group, however, that has lagged behind following the release of two of the Big 3's August sales... While DaimlerChrysler (DCX 41.92 +0.15) reported a 1% increase on an adjusted basis, Ford (F 13.92 -0.19) delivered a 13% decline in total US sales...

General Motors (GM 41.22 -0.09) is still due out, and it would not be surprising to see a drop in its sales given its competitors' results and expectations for a slump in August...NYSE Adv/Dec 1983/1150, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1860/997

12:00PM : A curious morning for the stock market as the tech sector has zoomed higher, leaving the blue chips largely in its dust... Tech shares (e.g. semiconductor, networking, disk drive, and internet) leapt out of the gates - an action credited to an aggressive buy order placed by a Tier 1 brokerage firm - and after initially selling off, resumed their upward trajectory at 10 ET... The catalyst was an in line July Construction Spending report (consensus of +0.4%) and an August ISM Index that came in at 59.0 (consensus of 60.0)...

Even though this was weaker than expected, it was still well above the 50.0 level (signaling expansion in national manufacturing) for the 15th month in a row... Industrial shares also found a bid off the news, along with basic material... Biotech and energy (like yesterday) have also demonstrated relative strength and helped offset slight losses in financial... Energy has found buying interest off the over 3% increase in the price of crude oil, to $43.46/bbl...

The American Petroleum Institute and Energy Information Administration's weekly inventory reports showed a decline in crude oil inventories, which renewed supply concerns after news of a pipeline fire in northern Iraq today...SOX +1.4, NYSE Adv/Dec 1991/1100, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1885/946

11:30AM : Stocks continue to hold to their same range with the Nasdaq outperforming the Dow and S&P 500... Within the Dow (the weakest index), 22 out of its 30 components are showing gains and helping to keep the average afloat... Caterpillar (CAT 73.33 +0.63), Intel (INTC 21.54 +0.25), and Exxon Mobil (46.41 +0.31) are collectively contributing 9 points to the Dow due to the strength of their respective groups... Industrial machinery itself has climbed higher off the upbeat implications of the August ISM Index...NYSE Adv/Dec 1972/1062, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1935/823

[54anickel]

29. DOW dropping fast - 1:06 it's at -11.58

on edit:

Something just hit the headlines? What's up?

[54anickel]

30. 1:11 HOLY SHIT

Dow 10,111.83 -62.09 (-0.61%)
Nasdaq 1,834.77 -3.33 (-0.18%)
S&P 500 1,100.01 -4.23 (-0.38%)
10-yr Bond 4.131% -0.001
30-yr Bond 4.93% -0.008
NYSE Volume 614,987,000
Nasdaq Volume 873,755,000


edit for html and to add

Would this be related to the Russian School hostage story? That's been going on for quite a while already though.

[54anickel]

31. 1:24 and recovering quite nicely, should be in the black in no time

Dow 10,161.16 -12.76 (-0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,847.74 +9.64 (+0.52%)
S&P 500 1,104.62 +0.38 (+0.03%)
10-yr Bond 4.122% -0.010
30-yr Bond 4.928% -0.010
NYSE Volume 669,054,000
Nasdaq Volume 942,853,000

[54anickel]

32. Might have been this story....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x793248

No update on the blather yet.

[UpInArms]

34. updated blather (and the sick thing was the problem)

1:25PM: After all the early volatility dissipated the market averages were content to drift within limited ranges modestly below the session highs. However, a quick spike to the downside was seen over the last half hour in the wake of reports that several dozen people have been sickened in a Washington DC office building. The move did not develop any legs with the averages quickly recouping more than half of the swift intraday drop. The decline reflects the underlying terrorism fear but the latest reports are that it was a prank and not a serious threat. NYSE Adv/Dec 2044/1149, Nasdaq Adv/ Dec 1655/1250

[54anickel]

36. Thanks UIA. Looks like the DOW is having a bit of trouble shaking

it. At 2:04 it's still in the red, but not nearly as deep.

Dow 10,160.57 -13.35 (-0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,845.04 +6.94 (+0.38%)
S&P 500 1,104.42 +0.18 (+0.02%)
10-yr Bond 4.124% -0.008
30-yr Bond 4.930% -0.008
NYSE Volume 743,787,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,027,501,000

2:00PM: The market indices recouped virtually all of the losses related to the Washington DC incident as additional reports have come out indicating that it was indeed merely a prank. In recent news GM (-0.2%) reported that its total August sales were down 7%. This comes on the heels of Daimler Chrysler (DCX +0.5%) reporting a 1% increase and Ford (F -1.2%) a 13% decline. Today's volatility has picked up the run rate with volume firmly above the last several sessions. Market internals remain mildly bullish across the board. NYSE Adv/Dec 2038/1173, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1792/1156

1:25PM: After all the early volatility dissipated the market averages were content to drift within limited ranges modestly below the session highs. However, a quick spike to the downside was seen over the last half hour in the wake of reports that several dozen people have been sickened in a Washington DC office building. The move did not develop any legs with the averages quickly recouping more than half of the swift intraday drop. The decline reflects the underlying terrorism fear but the latest reports are that it was a prank and not a serious threat. NYSE Adv/Dec 2044/1149, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1655/1250

[54anickel]

35. Gold falls as data lift dollar, stocks

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB4CC59C9%2D551E%2D4CD3%2D97DD%2DB5F16A8727B1%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures fell Wednesday with U.S. manufacturing and construction spending data coming in generally as expected, providing support for the dollar and the stock market and luring investors away from the precious metals.

Gold for December delivery fell $2.20 to trade at $410.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It closed above $412 on Tuesday, its highest level since Aug. 23. Gold rose almost $19 during August.

The August ISM manufacturing index, reported this morning, was at 59 percent, a little below economists' expectations of 59.8 percent and down from 62 percent in July. See full story.

Spending on U.S. construction projects increased 0.4 percent, as expected, in July, the Commerce Department estimated. See full story.

The dollar reclaimed lost ground against most of its major currency rivals following the data. See Currencies.

And the broader markets traded mainly higher, so investors lost interest in the metals market.

On Tuesday, the Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell in August and the Chicago purchasing managers index showed a slowdown in growth. See related story.

"With data raising new questions about the health of the U.S. economy and delivering a fresh blow to the greenback, the market will continue to pay close attention to the currencies, particularly with more key data including ... nonfarm payrolls due this week," said James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London.

[54anickel]

37. Over A Barrel?

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/moprinter.htm

The Recovery Room…Well, we all know by now that 2Q 2004 GDP has registered a 2.8% growth rate. At least that's the latest read. Quite unfortunately, the incredible gap up in the June trade deficit pretty much wiped away any hopes of a higher 2Q number. We do have one more revision to come, so we've still to see just where the GDP chips ultimately fall. We'll admit, 2.8% GDP growth is a bit of a disappointment after four consecutive quarters of above 4% real GDP expansion. But it's pretty obvious something like this should be expected now that the bulk of both fiscal and monetary stimulus has worked its way through the system. As always, nothing ever happens in linear fashion on either Wall Street or in the real economy. The key, of course, looking ahead is whether this slowdown in GDP is temporary or something a bit more than that. According to the Fed governors and assorted Administration spokesfolks, have no worries. We've just hit a little speed bump. A little soft patch. The economy and coincident job creation is set to reaccelerate ahead, right? That's the official line.

As always, we're constantly looking for ways to gauge the forward strength of the US economy. In that spirit, we thought we'd take a quick look at the real GDP growth characteristics of past economic recoveries to try to get a sense for where we are in the current cycle and observe how this cycle compares and contrasts with prior experience. Remember, the current economic expansion has occurred during and as a result of the greatest fiscal and monetary largesse of a lifetime. Let’s get right to the numbers. In the following table, we’ve identified eight economic expansion cycles of the last half century. We detail cycle expansion dates, the length of each expansion in quarters and the average annualized real quarterly GDP growth rate for each cycle.

Clearly not all expansions are created equally. But that is no major revelation in and of itself by any means. As you can see from the data above, economic expansions of the last half century have on average lasted 20.8 quarters. Average annualized real quarterly GDP growth has been 4.29% over the period. As you can also see in the table, we could easily classify the 4Q 80-3Q 81 expansion as an anomaly in that it was really a double dip recessionary environment. If we throw out that period, the average length of economic expansions lengthens to 23.1 quarters and the average annualized real quarterly GDP growth rate is virtually unchanged at 4.28%. Lastly, it is clear that we are currently 11 quarters into the current economic recovery and average annualized real quarterly GDP expansion now stands at 3.21%. A full 100+ basis points below what has been historical experience. And, as you know, this is in spite of some of the most aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus ever unleashed upon the US domestic economy.

Very quickly, let’s have a look at where each of the prior economic expansions stood 11 quarters into each recovery cycle. In other words, exactly at the point in which we currently find ourselves. Of course we have not included periods where the total recovery cycle was under 11 months (‘58/’60 and ‘80/’81). Just how are we fairing at present relative to what has been the front end time-wise experience of each prior recovery cycle?

more...

[KoKo]

38. Hurricanes and Iraq Fires could raise price of Oil

The American Petroleum Institute said crude inventories for the week ended Aug 27 fell by 8.1 mln barrels to total 281.4 mln. "Eight million is the biggest reported crude decline reported by the American Petroleum Institute in the last six months," said Infinity analyst John Person. "This takes API crude stocks to 282 mln barrels, back to the dangerously low minimum operating levels and a 28 year-low," he added. The Department of Energy also reported declines in crude, but less severe. The DoE said crude stocks were down 4.2 mln barrels for the week ending Aug 27. "With crude we are back on guard. It seems that we are still catching up with shipping delays from our last hurricanes," Person said -- referring to Hurricanes Charley and Bonnie in the middle of August. Dealers said with the new threat of Hurricane Francis looming, Florida is looking more and more like a "sitting duck." "Francis is gathering speed and looks like she will cut across Florida, and aim straight for the (Florida) Quays, and head for the Gulf (of Mexico), and bypass Cuba," Person said

"There is no question that there will be damage," he added. "In a situation where further shipments will be delayed and platforms will be shut-in, and with pipeline fires in Iraq, 40 dollars a barrel is not unreasonable," he added. Earlier in the session, prices rose on reports that one of Iraq's northern pipelines in the area of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan export route is on fire. "It is said to be carrying 600,000 barrels of oil. This would be partly exports of 300 barrels, as well as oil from storage," Commerzbank analyst David Thomas said. Thomas said the Kirkuk pipeline has not managed to successfully transport oil for most of the year due to ongoing sabotage, and the new attack was a further setback. Looking at the product inventories, the DoE reported gasoline stocks were up 900,000 barrels, and distillate stocks were up 1.3 mln barrels. The API reported an even larger increase in gasoline stocks of 2.2 mln barrels to 210.6 mln. Person said the distillate stocks build of 2.2 mln barrels reported by the API could be a saving grace if the winter proves to be a cold one. rak/wf For more information and to contact AFX: www.afxnews.com and www.afxpress.com
http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/AFX/singleNew.asp?menu=latestnews&pv_noticia=1094055834-9e32d306-37140

[54anickel]

39. MARKET MANIPULATION, OR INFORMATION MANIPULATION?

http://onlypill.tripod.com/zarathustra/id14.html

We are inundated with market manipulation and conspiracy theories. I will attempt a logical inquiry into this phenomenon. For a good lesson in information manipulation, your best bet is to go to the stock market. Lest you think that Marty Schwartz is an isolated case, read the Ray Dirk’s story. Therefore, I shall confine my study to the commodities markets. The commodities markets are the oldest markets in the world. The various commodities provide significant amounts of data for analysis. If effective manipulation exists, one will be able to track its effects. We will define successful manipulation as having interfered with a commodity’s ability to exhibit the normal accumulation, distribution, and trending zones. This creates an objective benchmark for this inquiry.

Any discussion of market manipulation must be reduced into the elements that might create the belief in the phenomenon. We must first deal with our need to believe in market manipulation. Since actual evidence of market manipulation is sparse, what is generating this tendency to suspect manipulation, or conspiracy? We must further define the process to differentiate between the attempt to manipulate the markets, and the actual manipulation of the markets. A further distinction is necessary. One must distinguish between those processes that are manipulatable, and those processes that are not manipulatable. For example, political and social processes are manipulatatble, and may be nothing more than manipulation, coercion, and conspiracy. Physical processes are subject to the laws of nature, and any attempt to successfully manipulate these processes are possible only by complying with the physical laws involved. One could be found in the position of claiming the laws of nature manipulate the markets. This forces us to examine the true nature of markets. Are they controlled by man, or some bigger force? The final question is the definition of market manipulation. Are we speaking of the intra day price action, or daily price action? The weekly and monthly price charts will show a different picture. Trading ranges behave differently than trending markets.

Do we have a tendency to believe in manipulation, and conspiracies? The answer is yes! The social world we inhabit reveals attempts to coerce, manipulate, and regulate in every facet of social interaction. The attempt to control outcomes to our benefit is part of our survival mechanism. It is indisputable part of existence in a society. However, this does not prove that these conspiratorial efforts are effective in manipulating markets. Aesop once said, "And the mice voted to bell the cat". Many activities are beyond the power of social pressure. The laws and pretensions of humanity are just foolishness when confronted with power of nature. Therefore, any intelligent discussion of market manipulation must properly differentiate between social creations, and those phenomenon that are based on physical reality and it’s laws. A steel mill would be an example of a process that is indifferent to the schemes of society. The only way to increase output is to increase the inputs, or evolve a new technology that requires a complete understanding of the principles of metallurgy. Wishing, hoping, dreaming, and screaming are irrelevant. Social activities and politics are the domains of emotions and perception manipulation, not the commodities markets! Again, J. L. Livermore has anticipated our question. Livermore said, "I sometimes think that speculation must be an unnatural sort of business, because I find that the average speculator has arrayed against him his own nature. The weaknesses that all men are prone to are fatal in success in speculation- usually those very weaknesses that make him likable to his fellows or that he himself particularly guards against in those other ventures of his where they are not so dangerous as when he is trading in stocks or commodities."

The most important facet of market manipulation is the manipulation of information about the market. This is the rock that sinks most investor’s ships. George Soros made an interesting observation about market information.. He said, "Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truth. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited." This observation comes from the greatest currency trader alive. I believe that he has thrown down the gauntlet regarding the value of the information you receive. Does market manipulation exist, or is it merely the lies and deceptions about markets that are the manipulation? George Soros has shared his experience. Leo Melamed, the founder of the International Monetary Market (Chicago Mercantile Exchange), gave a speech. In this speech, Futures, the Coveted Scapegoat, he said, " Derogatory comments, defamatory innuendos, inflammatory jokes, false accusations, misleading opinions, half-truths, out-and-out lies, that is the fate and burden of futures markets. Thus it has been throughout time, thus it will no doubt continue. And why not? From time immemorial, predicting the future has been a hazardous occupation."

more...

[54anickel]

40. Public debt as of the end of August is yet another record breaker!

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

08/31/2004 $7,350,950,234,630.15

[54anickel]

41. Of Scalloped Potatoes and Coconut Cream Pie

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/FF/2004/FF_09_2004.htm

Oil price shocks are not, at first glance, a complicated economic event to analyze: price shocks increase the cost of living for those who must consume oil that they don’t own. It really is that simple. And an increase in the cost of getting by, as it was known where I grew up, is axiomatically a reduction in the standard of living for such folks: American workers driving to work in America, a country that consumes more oil than it produces.



And they don’t like it. After paying up for petrol, they have less purchasing power left from their paychecks to buy other things. In this sense, the oil price shock is similar to a tax hike, as the cliché goes. Indeed it is. Tax hikes are negative for economy-wide aggregate demand for non-oil expenditures, particularly tax hikes of a regressive nature, as an oil price shock is. Concurrently, inflation arithmetically goes up, as the weighted average increase in oil prices swamps any weight-averaged softening in non-oil prices associated with weakened demand. So, an oil price shock is a tax hike with stagflationary consequences. Nasty stuff.



It’s sad, and it’s unfortunate. But it’s also basic economics: an increase in the price of a good that you consume but don’t produce relative to the price of goods that you do produce is technically called a negative terms of trade shock. Less technically, it’s similar to being told by your father-in-law that in honor of your mother-in-law’s outrageously good scalloped potatoes at Thanksgiving, you will be expected to bring two bottles of fine wine this year, not one as you did last year. The price of those spuds just doubled. And you gotta have them!



What Is Is

But not every day, only one day a year. In contrast, you gotta drive to work every day. And so do other Americans, who collectively consume more petroleum than America produces, with the balance coming from imports. Accordingly, there is no getting ‘round the reality that an oil price shock is a negative terms of trade shock for America and a positive terms of trade shock for those who export oil to us.



Yes, it is true, as many argue, that such a shock is not as severe today as it was three decades ago, as energy per unit of GDP has declined. It probably is true that being hit over the head with a 16-inch baseball bat is less painful than being hit over the head with a 32-inch baseball bat. But only a fool would argue that taking a hit from a baseball bat is not a negative shock. Which brings us to the issue of how the present oil price shock will be defused: slower growth, higher inflation, or both?

more...

[54anickel]

43. Wise Words

http://reese.king-online.com/Reese_20040901/index.php

The late Joe Ka was a friend of mine. He was Chinese, held a doctorate in history and literature and made the best egg rolls I've ever tasted.

Joe told me two things I've never forgotten. One is that while Americans plan for the next election, the Chinese are planning for the next 50 years. The other is that you should not mistake the size of the gross domestic product for power.

In America, we make underarm odor a multimillion-dollar industry. A huge percentage of our GDP consists of cosmetics, entertainment and other non-essential consumer items. The part of GDP that counts for military power is steel production, machine tools, high-tech, manufacturing capacity and energy. In World War II, we literally were the "arsenal of democracy," but we could not duplicate that feat today. Today we turn out more lawyers and social workers than engineers and mathematicians.

Most Americans know we are dependent on imports for our energy. Most probably don't know that we are also dependent on imports for about a dozen key metals and minerals, without which we could not make our high-tech weapons. Most don't know that even some of the components of our strategic weapons are imported.

We have for years allowed our manufacturing base to be diminished, and today we are even encouraging dependence on foreign agricultural production. If these trends continue, one day we will be huffing and puffing up a steep hill short of oxygen. Looking at it from the long point of view, we cannot hope to have only Third World weaklings for enemies. One day we might have to fight a nation as powerful as we are.

more...

[54anickel]

44. Axioms of the Global Economic Order

This is that Droke fellow that is always promoting his 10 year cycle and claiming we're in a bull market. I do find some of his rhetoric about the elite pretty interesting though :tinfoilhat: firmly in place.

http://www.clifdroke.com/articles/090104/cd090104.mgi

snip>

Don't get me wrong. It's not like I can't sympathize with all the bearish arguments being bandied around out there. I used to be bearish myself but was brought to see the light in early 2003 after a major long-term pivotal support in the Dow was successfully tested for the fourth time in six years. This, among other observations, proved to my satisfaction that the controllers of America's financial destiny had no intention of crashing the market anytime soon.

This leads me to the subject of this missive, namely, the "Global Economic Order," or GEO for short. That's just a fancy way of saying "global economy." It should be obvious to anyone who pays attention to world affairs and follows closely the current line of the major corporate and financial interests that a major goal of the money Elites is a fully integrated world economy. And world economy, whether we like it or not, is what we're going to get before all is said and done. In a nutshell, this is why the bearish argument cannot and will not be allowed to be fulfilled this decade. We haven't arrived at the long sought-after Elitist goal of Global Economic Order (GEO) yet. There are still Third World countries to be "democratized' (which means to pave the way for global economic integration). There are still trade barriers to be dismantled. And until the globalization process is complete, America's financial controllers will not allow the world's premier engine of economic growth to slide into serious recession, nor will its vital stock market or real estate markets be allowed to crash. It's that simple, yet the bears keep tripping over the obviousness of it.

An Internet friend recently e-mailed me the following observation concerning this failure of the bears to take into account the careful control and manipulation of financial markets: "You'd think these guys who talk nothing but Austrian school economics would remember what Adam Smith had to say about the obviousness of elitist manipulation." What an insightful point! And herein lies the seed of the bears' (as well as the Austrian School proponents') errors: they give credence to the concept of a vague, nebulous "Invisible Hand," never once realizing that the Invisible Hand is actually the behind-the-scenes influence of the money controllers! In today's world that would be mostly the central bank cartels, including the Fed.

The bears have this mistaken notion that the Fed doesn't ultimately control the course of the U.S. economy and that eventually the economy will get beyond the Fed's control. But they have again failed to consider the Golden Rule of finance: "He who has the gold makes the rule!" The interests that control the issuance of money can and do control the financial system and economic superstructure in which the money circulates. A recession/depression cannot happen unless the Fed creates it by restricting the money supply. Conversely, a financial boom cannot get underway unless directed by the Fed. This is not a statement of approval of the Fed's operations but merely an observation of fact -- a simple yet often overlooked fact. It's the cornerstone axiom of the GEO.

more...

[KoKo]

48. A good read, that... Reminds of when some of us thought that the

PNAC was :tinfoilhat: Even the PNAC'ers themselves are still saying that those who think they've been involved in anything like "manipulation" are total :tinfoilhat:

He's correct...IMHO...they are trying to implement the plans for the GEO. No doubt about that for anyone whose spent time on DU these last years.

One has to wonder what they overlooked, though. There's always some detail that brings down the "all powerful." The group who doesn't co-operate, the country who rejects GEO, or circumstances totally out of their control..like the weather (although I've heard stories that they are making some headway in controlling even that).

hmmmmmm....I probably took this article more seriously than it was intended...but still...a good rant about "elitists" of both sides. I read Charley Reese's article just before this one...so both articles are spinning around in my head.

[54anickel]

45. 3:30 update

Dow 10,149.14 -24.78 (-0.24%)
Nasdaq 1,844.59 +6.49 (+0.35%)
S&P 500 1,103.88 -0.36 (-0.03%)
10-yr Bond 4.123% -0.009
30-yr Bond 4.934% -0.004
NYSE Volume 963,381,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,238,550,000

3:00PM: Although the averages dipped slightly as crude oil jumped to a new recovery high, little overall has changed for the market averages over the last hour or so. Tech (semi +0.5%, telecom +0.6%, disk drive +0.8%, computer-hardware +0.8%) and energy (oil service +2.5%, natural gas +1.3%, oil +1.1%) remain firmly higher on the day while financial related sectors (insurance -1%, bank -0.6%, broker/dealer -0.4%) as well as airline (-2.3%), tobacco (-0.5%) and drug (-0.3%) post losses. The trading pace, while still above the last few days thanks to morning and afternoon volatility, remains below average. NYSE Adv/Dec 1996/1257, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1753/1241

2:30PM: The market indices have pulled back a bit after they recovered from the Washington DC related slide as crude oil builds on a recovery of its own. Since bottoming on Monday the Oct contract has rebounded roughly 7.5% from low to high. The Dow remains the only index in the red but insurer American Intl (AIG -1.4%) is the only component posting a larger than 1% loss at this time. NYSE Adv/Dec 1957/1268, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1734/1248

[54anickel]

46. Understate Housing Costs, Understate Inflation

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_baum&sid=aa49I53YXUPw

Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- If there had been any pressure on Federal Reserve officials to normalize interest rates more quickly early in the year, the last two inflation reports alleviated it.

The consumer price index excluding food and energy rose 0.1 percent in both June and July following increases of 0.2 percent to 0.4 percent from January through May.

Maybe the Fed was right, and the acceleration in inflation was transitory, the result of a spike in energy prices that filtered through to core prices.

That determination is of vital interest to policy makers, who seem less concerned about the reliability of the inflation data.

A new study by Alliance Capital Management's economic research department finds that a chronic underestimation of housing costs, the largest component of the CPI, has led to a 0.6 percentage point annual understatement of inflation since 1998 -- a gap that has grown to 1 percentage point annually in the last two years, with a somewhat greater impact on the core.

Understating inflation has ramifications for monetary policy, interest rates and cost-of-living adjustments, according to Alliance's Joe Carson, who wrote the study.

more...

[54anickel]

49. CEOs See More Hiring, Capital Spending

Just as soon as they finish getting their piece of the pie first. If there's anything left over after the shareholders get some crumbs, they'll be sure to send it out labor's way. :eyes:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040901/economy_ceosurvey_3.html

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A quarterly survey of U.S. chief executives showed they plan to increase hiring and capital spending, despite recent soft economic data, concerns about sluggish job growth and high energy prices.
ADVERTISEMENT


The Business Roundtable, the main association of U.S. CEOs, said the September CEO Economic Outlook survey painted the most positive economic picture since it was launched in November 2002 and suggested CEOs expect steady economic growth.

"Despite the economy's moderate slowdown over the past two months, CEOs remain optimistic about business conditions," said Hank McKinnell, chief executive of Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE - News) and chairman of the Business Roundtable. "While the economy hasn't hit its full potential, fundamentals remain solid."

The CEO Economic Index, which combines responses on sales, capital spending and hiring, rose to a new high of 101.7 compared with 96.5 in June. A level over 50 signals an expansion.

While weaker-than-expected July payroll data sparked concerns about sluggish job growth, the CEOs surveyed were more optimistic.

more...

[Robbien]

54. They know they need to keep consumer spending up

so they continue the hype. Of course they plan on hiring and spending at some indefinite date in the future. They can continue saying this because no one calls them on it. Not once in the last three years.

[54anickel]

50. NAFTA Ruling Victory for Canadian Softwood Lumber Producers

http://www.canadaone.com/ezine/briefs.html?StoryID=04Sep01_1

A resolution to the Canada-US softwood lumber dispute may be on the horizon following a NAFTA ruling on August 31, 2004 ordering the United States International Trade Commission (ITC) to reverse its decision that softwood lumber from Canada threatened economic harm to producers in the U.S.

At the core of this issue is whether or not US producers suffered a 'material injury'. According to US trade law, punitive duties for countervailing and anti-dumping may only be put in place if there is an affirmative threat or actual "material injury" determination. Without this determination the US will have to revoke their order, stop collecting duties, and return over $2 billion USD in duties that have been collected to date.

Even if the ITC disagrees with the NAFTA Panel's decision, it has no choice but to comply with the orders within this stated 10 day timeframe.

"This NAFTA ruling supports the arguments that the federal government, provincial governments, and industry have made all along," said Halvar Jonson, Minister of Alberta International and Intergovernmental Relations. "The U.S. lumber industry's vulnerability was a result of factors other than Canadian softwood lumber."

bit more...

[54anickel]

51. Small bankers group frets over B of A's small-biz unit move, layoffs

http://boston.bizjournals.com/boston/stories/2004/08/30/daily26.html

An association of community bankers say they are "concerned" about Bank of America Corp.'s decision to move FleetBoston Financial's small-business banking unit to Charlotte, N.C., from Boston and lay off hundreds of branch workers.

"When large banks merge, small businesses and consumers, as well as employees, are often adversely impacted," said Camden R. Fine, president and CEO of Independent Community Bankers of America, in a statement. "The resulting mega-bank never seems to have the same commitment to small businesses and consumers in the local community. We share the concerns of Governor Romney and the State Banking Commissioner about Bank of America's decision. We hope community banks in Massachusetts will mitigate any adverse impact the merger may have on small businesses and the community."

The announcement Tuesday by Bank of America that it was moving one of its key business units from Boston marked the second time since its merger with FleetBoston that it has broken its pledge to headquarter divisions in Boston, the group said. The layoffs by B of A come despite pre-merger assurances that "customer-facing" positions would be safe. State Treasurer Tim Cahill has threatened to pull about $120 million of state business out of the bank and Gov. Mitt Romney has demanded a public accounting of the bank's layoffs and its recent moves to relocate divisions.

[54anickel]

52. Labor secretary says outsourcing anxiety belies facts

http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/special_packages/election2004/9555409.htm

NEW YORK - Anxiety over the overseas outsourcing of work by American businesses is refuted by the number of jobs that have actually been moved elsewhere and ignores the millions of jobs that foreign companies have created in the United States, Labor Secretary Elaine Chao said Wednesday.

Chao added that she wasn't trying to sound "callous." Rather, "I'm trying to get out the facts," she said.

In the past year, employers have eliminated about 300,000 jobs in United States in favor of cheaper labor in other countries, Chao said.

Yet about 9 million Americans currently work for U.S. subsidiaries of foreign-owned companies, she said.

"People talk about (outsourcing) a lot," Chao said in an interview after stumping for President Bush before Missouri delegates. "The anxiety belies the numbers."

The labor secretary's comments come after the Bush administration drew criticism for an economic report in February that stated that offshoring jobs "makes sense."

more...

[54anickel]

53. Stocks Face Annual Autumn Watershed

Need to keep the sheeple's minds at ease. Next leg down will be pointed out as a normal part of the cycle. Don't want a stampede for the exits now, do we.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/040901/10181017_3.html

For most people, September is a time when leaves change color and children go back to school. For investors, it usually marks the beginning of a rout in the stock market.
According to the Stock Traders Almanac, September has been the worst month for the major averages over the past 53 years, with the Dow losing 1.1% on average and the S&P 500 falling by 0.7%. The Nasdaq has fared just as poorly in its 33-year history, declining by 1.1% on average in September.

"September has historically been the weakest month of the year, and we would not be surprised to see some pullback or consolidation in the averages this month," said Merrill Lynch analyst Richard McCabe.

While it's not entirely clear why September has been so bad for the market, analysts have offered various explanations. Some say it's related to tax-loss selling by mutual funds. Others say investors are simply bailing out ahead of October, a month that has become renowned for market crashes.

Tobias Levkovich, chief market strategist at Smith Barney, believes September is a challenging month for equities because there is so much uncertainty over the outlook for corporate profits.

more...

[54anickel]

55. Closing numbers

Dow 10,168.46 -5.46 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,850.41 +12.31 (+0.67%)
S&P 500 1,105.91 +1.67 (+0.15%)
10-yr Bond 4.123% -0.009
30-yr Bond 4.934% -0.004
NYSE Volume 1,141,959,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,424,145,000

3:35PM: The market averages have slipped further back off the afternoon recovery highs but the action has been far from aggressive. Today has been marked by unusual volatility, which has likely been exacerbated by thinner trading conditions. Add in mixed to negative news on the economic front and weak auto sales numbers and the market has held up relatively well. The earnings calendar for tonight/tomorrow before the open is light (SKIL, VTS, DLM, DOCC, SEH) with only Claims, Factory Orders and Productivity on the economic calendar. With INTC not commenting on the quarter until after the close tomorrow, further relatively limited action would not be surprising. NYSE Adv/Dec 1911/1368, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1635/1389

[UpInArms]

56. I Am an Economic Girlie-Man

http://www.fool.com/News/mft/2004/mft04090118.htm

In his speech last night at the Republican National Convention, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger pinged folks who are pessimistic about the state of the U.S. economy, calling them "economic girlie-men."

On a personal level, I thought it was a pretty funny line, and there's certain comedy to the fact that Arnold gets to spoof a line that was used on Saturday Night Live to spoof Arnold.

Here's the exact line: "To those critics who are so pessimistic about our economy, I say: 'Don't be economic girlie-men!"'

But you know what? I'm pessimistic about the economy. I'm afraid that the Federal Reserve has backed itself into a corner. I'm afraid that lending discipline among mortgage companies has completely collapsed. I am concerned that low interest rates have been used to entice the American consumer to clean up a recession borne by an irresponsible corporate spending binge by going on one of his own. I'm afraid that the $200 billion-plus that Americans have cashed out of their houses has been spent, and the next drop in interest rates won't be concomitant with a rise in prices; rather, it will be because of a full-fledged financial emergency.

So fine, I'm an economic girlie-man. Here's another thing: I'm not someone rooting for things to be worse. I'm a four-alarm, full-fledged laissez-faire capitalist South Park Republican fiscal conservative. I don't think people can get rich by buying houses from one another for ever more money. I don't think that the path to ultimate financial success is to borrow more; it doesn't work on an individual level, and it sure as heck doesn't work on a national level. I think that the most exceptional thing about America's economic performance is its historical willingness to allow the successful to succeed and the failures to fail. The failures, of course, can jump back up, try again, and THEN succeed. But the talk of how many jobs some president has created or lost (as if) turns what is great about America right on its ear, because if I know one thing about economics, it is this: There aren't a few smart folks in a room somewhere controlling things. In fact, the more smart folks try to control the economy, the more things tend to get screwed up.

...more...

[54anickel]

58. Hmmm, a new name for the DU Marketeers?

[UpInArms]

57. GM, Ford Cut Production, U.S. Sales Weak

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6128309

DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Ford Motor Co. (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) posted weaker U.S. sales for August on Wednesday and both cut planned fourth-quarter production as their aging vehicle lineups lost ground to rival Chrysler and some foreign brands.

GM and Ford, whose production cuts could hurt profits, capped a weak summer with their third straight month of lower sales, despite higher consumer incentives. Hurricane Charley's damaging path through Florida, high energy prices and falling consumer confidence also hurt sales results.

GM said it was disappointed with its 7 percent drop in sales. Ford reported a 5.9 percent drop in results for its U.S. brands. The results sent shivers through the industry including auto parts makers who could be hurt by the production cuts.

"Disappointing job gains over the last few months, combined with higher energy prices, is making life difficult for consumers just as the benefits from last year's tax cuts fade," Ford economist Jarlath Costello said on a conference call.

<snip>

GM and Ford, struggling with excess inventories of unsold cars and trucks, set targets for fourth-quarter vehicle production in North America that were 6.8 percent and 7.8 percent below year-ago levels, respectively. Earlier this week, Ford's Jaguar brand said it would cut production in Britain due to slack demand.

...more...

and a recap on the reports:

Sep 01 12:00 AM
Auto Sales Aug
reported 5.2M
briefing.com anticipated 5.5M
market anticipated 5.4M
last report 5.5M
revised from 5.5M

Sep 01 12:00 AM
Truck Sales Aug
reported 8.2M
briefing.com anticipated 8.5M
market anticipated 8.2M
last report 8.4M
revised from 8.4M

(looks like the only report that has come in above expectations this week is personal spending :eyes: )

[KoKo]

59. Kick...some great articles here, for after hours reading if you aren't

zoned in to the Repugs tonight...;-)'s