Bush, Kerry Tied in Race for U.S. Presidency, New Poll Shows

[Khephra]

Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. President George W. Bush and his Democratic challenger John Kerry are in a statistical tie, according to the first poll of likely voters taken during the Republican National Convention.

Bush and Kerry each got 47 percent in an American Research Group Inc. poll of likely voters taken during the first three days of the Republican National Convention. Independent candidate Ralph Nader got 3 percent. The poll's margin of error is 3.5 percentage points. Five percent of likely voters said they were undecided, the poll said.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aw0I08OJaS6Q&refer=us

[Eurobabe]

1. please tell me what it means by likely voter

how do they determine this number?

I still believe in my heart that the turnout is going to huge and Bu$h is going down in fvcking flames in November. Unless the GOP is setting this up to "appear" close so they can fix the results.

[ender]

2. generally, they go off of past voting history...

you know, you can check to see if a registerred voter has voted in the past N elections.

[Khephra]

3. I'm not one of the poll experts here

I"m just a news junkie. ;-)

I'm sure someone will come around and help you out.

:-)

EDIT: See, I told you so. :-)

[Ruby Romaine]

4. I've spoken to quite a few people who have never ever voted before.

They have registered & will vote for Kerry this year, Bush scares them so much.
That will make a big difference this year.

[Tarheelhombre]

5. GREAT NEWS. Still no BUMP for Bush.

[Khephra]

6. That's what stuck me

It didn't look like the best of polls, but I was surprised that even this one didn't show any bump for Bush.

[truthisfreedom]

7. why should he get one? everything about the RNC stinks. the New Yorkers

hate it, they've been peacefully protested by hundreds of thousands of ordinary citizens, and all they have been able to do is invoke more fear and insecurity, rather than talk about the issues. it's hopeless... the twins are basically idiotic sluts, based on what we've seen, and bush has waffled around on the greatest part of his platform... the war on terra. can't win it, will win it... don't really know, now do we?

bush hosed up the RNC big-time. now it's time for MIHOP, because that's all they've got left.

[lapfog_1]

8. Isn't even WORSE than that?

Going into the convention, wasn't Bush slightly ahead (but
withing margin of error) in this very same poll? Like 48-45
with "likely" voters? Now, after two or three days of almost
non-stop SBVFT ads (at least on my cable here in CA, I assume
even worse in swing states) and one of the most negative, fear
mongering, hateful conventions I can remember, Kerry and Bush
are exactly TIED 47 - 47?

Maybe I'm misremembering the polling data, or maybe this is
a different poll of "likely" voters or something.

[Tarheelhombre]

9. Can someone cite the previous poll from this firm?

[Can o Beans]

10. When will the networks begin to stumble all over themselves wondering

why the Republicans seem to be getting no bounce? After all, when it appeared Kerry's bounce was minimal, it was front-page news...

[wryter2000]

11. Awesome

If this holds -- no bounce -- we'll be in good shape for the campaign. And the new voters have to go for Kerry in a big way. Plus, when Nader isn't on ballots, Nader voters will go for Kerry.

:bounce:

[yellowcanine]

12. This would not include fall out from the Zell tirades or the Cheney sneer

So this is good news. I would guess Kerry will get the lion's share of that 5 % undecided.