STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 3 September

[ozymandius]

Friday September 3, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 139
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 60
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 266 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 320 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 533
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1016
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 2, 2004

Dow... 10,290.28 +121.82 (+1.20%)
Nasdaq... 1,873.43 +23.02 (+1.24%)
S&P 500... 1,118.31 +12.40 (+1.12%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.19% +0.07 (+1.72%)
Gold future... 408.00 -2.30 (-0.56%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

Slowing Economy, Pressure Building!

In early trading today market movements were influenced most heavily by a better than expected report on U.S. factory orders sending stocks modestly higher, bond prices fractionally lower, and put the dollar in positive territory. The Commerce Department reported factory orders rose 1.3% with forecasts calling for a gain of 1.1%. Last month and again this month commercial aircraft orders added significantly to the gain in factory orders. Excluding transportation items, orders increased 0.5% following an increase of 0.6% last month. The good news from factory orders so far has been enough to offset the negative news on chain store sales, worker productivity, and higher jobless claims.

-cut-

The Pressure is Building!

Since February 2002 the U.S. dollar has lost nearly 30% of its value internationally as measured by the U.S. Dollar Index and has weakened at varying degrees versus the major international currencies. My favorite hedge against a falling dollar is the precious metals sector including bullion, mining shares and options on shares and futures contracts. I have been paying a great deal of attention to the bull market in gold and silver, but primarily in U.S. dollar terms. As I was doing research to find what I think will be the best foreign currencies to own (to buy short-dated foreign bonds), I wanted to also look at each of the currencies to see how they are doing on their own versus the price of gold. Looking at gold relative to a number of currencies creates more of a global mosaic rather than just a snapshot of gold in U.S. dollars. Gold is a highly liquid asset that is accepted as a “near money” substitute virtually anywhere in the world, so it’s quite natural to include gold when looking at currencies.

-cut-

Governments around the world have been locking horns in competitive currency devaluations to make their respective countries' exports more desirable abroad. To weaken a currency, all a country needs to do is create more of their currency relative to economic growth and other currencies…and that’s exactly what they have been doing. As each currency has weakened in an effort to drop along with the falling U.S. dollar, all these currencies are reaching a bottleneck relative to gold. The triangular consolidations on the charts represent the global currencies’ bottleneck with gold! As the governments create more fiat currency to stay competitive globally, they just can’t create gold as fast as they can create digital money by selling more debt.

-cut-

Back to the Markets

Since I’ve had my head down typing, the last two hours have been very kind to stocks overall. I’m going through the news services to see what launched the Dow 120 points higher in the last couple hours and the rationale is “thin” at best. Reuters runs the headline, “Stocks End Sharply Higher” and attributes the sudden run-up to a “fast retreat in oil prices and some strong sales reports from retailers.” Bloomberg says, “U.S. stocks rose, led by retail shares, after Gap, Inc. beat analysts’ estimates for August sales and Best Buy Company reported a gain in quarterly profit.” I gotta' call a foul here, folks!! The chain store sales were out early in the morning and nobody was running in to buy the retailers…not until mid afternoon??? On top of that, go back to the beginning of the WrapUp and look at the specific sales numbers I listed. As a group they are weak, but if you just pull out one or two companies, you could throw some good spin on unsuspecting investors.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[punpirate]

2. Amazing cartoon, Ozy....

Ann Telnaes really nailed it. Zell and his messianic zeal (Zell?) and Cheney with his Halliburton garter.... Wow.

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.89 Change -0.09 (-0.10%)

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=MTFH60301_2004-09-03_10-06-26_L03163994

GLOBAL MARKETS - Intel warning counters U.S. jobs data hopes

LONDON, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Speculation that August's U.S. jobs report could surprise on the upside has lent sagging global stock markets some support this week and dampened buoyant bond markets.

But a revenue warning from U.S. tech bellwether Intel Corp. <INTC.O> countered that on Friday, eroding the positive effects of a strong finish on Wall Street after oil had retreated from its session highs.

<snip>

"It is hard to say what will happen with payrolls because forecasts have not been accurate recently. The market has rallied aggressively in the last 3 months, so the risk is that we would see a big sell-off on a strong number," said a U.S. bond dealer in London.

<snip>

Consensus hopes are for an addition of around 150,000 nonfarm jobs in August but expectations vary greatly. Some economists such as those at JP Morgan are forecasting just 100,000 new jobs and some speculators were betting on a gain of up to 275,000 in derivatives trade.

...more...

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1094202998-9e32d306-14779

Forex - Dollar flat ahead of US jobs data; Pound slips as UK house prices fall

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar was steady, treading water ahead of key US jobs data this afternoon, while sterling was on the backfoot after a Halifax survey showed house prices dropped in August, hit by higher borrowing costs

Markets are broadly cautious ahead of the US non-farm payrolls numbers, which are expected to provide the main influence for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision on September 21 and will give direction to currency markets

"The US Employment Report will undoubtedly be the ultimate arbiter of FX market direction today," said HBOS currency analyst Steve Pearson. This set of data is notoriously hard to predict, with most market players prefering to wait on the sidelines rather than gamble on the outcome

...more...

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=2564&guid=%7B98D808DF%2D6171%2D4E3E%2DBC39%2DAF73C5B4F637%7D&symb=

Intel Lowers Financial Forecast for 3Q

SAN FRANCISCO, Sep 02, 2004 (AP Online via COMTEX) -- High-tech bellwether Intel Corp. lowered its financial outlook Thursday, providing the latest sign of the economy's doldrums.

The Santa Clara-based computer giant said its third-quarter revenue will range from $8.3 billion to $8.6 billion. Management previously forecast revenue ranging from $8.6 billion to $9.2 billion for the three-month period ending Sept. 25.

Gross profit margins are now expected to be within a couple points of 58 percent, compared with the earlier guidance of 60 percent, plus or minus a couple points.

With recent economic indications pointing to a slowdown, the stock market had been bracing for disappointing news from the world's largest computer chip maker, but Thursday's revised outlook appeared to be gloomier than many investors anticipated.

...more...

and although there was no newsblurb to go with this, I felt this one liner was important:

5:43pm 09/02/04 Intel sees Q3 inventory growth of $100 mln to $150 mln - CBS MarketWatch.com

Reports for today:

Sep 03 8:30 AM
Average Workweek Aug
report -
briefing.com anticipates 33.7
market anticipates 33.7
last report 33.7
revised -

Sep 03 8:30 AM
Hourly Earnings Aug
report -
briefing.com anticipates 0.2%
market anticipates 0.2%
last report 0.3%
revised -

Sep 03 8:30 AM
Nonfarm Payrolls Aug
report -
briefing.com anticipates 135K
market anticipates 150K
last report 32K
revised -

Sep 03 8:30 AM
Unemployment Rate Aug
report -
briefing.com anticipates 5.5%
market anticipates 5.5%
last report 5.5%
revised -

Sep 03 10:00 AM
ISM Services Aug
report -
briefing.com anticipates 63.0
market anticipaties 62.2
last report 64.8
revised -

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

14. filling in the reports

Sep 03 8:30 AM
Average Workweek Aug
reported 33.8
briefing.com anticipated 33.7
market anticipated 33.7
last report 33.8
revised from 33.7

Sep 03 8:30 AM
Hourly Earnings Aug
reported 0.3%
briefing.com anticipated 0.2%
market anticipated 0.2%
last report 0.4%
revised from 0.3%

Sep 03 8:30 AM
Nonfarm Payrolls Aug
reported 144K
briefing.com anticipated 135K
market anticipated 150K
last report 73K
revised from 32K

Sep 03 8:30 AM
Unemployment Rate Aug
reported 5.4%
briefing.com anticipated 5.5%
market anticipated 5.5%
last report 5.5%
revised -

Sep 03 10:00 AM
ISM Services Aug
reported 58.2
briefing.com anticipated 63.0
market anticipated 62.2
last report 64.8
revised -

[54anickel]

20. Look at that dollar fly!

Last trade 89.43 Change +0.45 (+0.51%)

High 89.47 Low 88.76

The low to high was made in straight line up on the chart.

[UpInArms]

26. WHEE!

Last trade 89.58 Change +0.60 (+0.67%)

Settle 88.98 Settle Time 23:37

Open 88.92 Previous Close 88.98

High 89.57 Low 88.76

Volume 1,738

let's see where the yen is:

Last trade 0.009070 Change -0.000066 (-0.72%)

Settle 0.009136 Settle Time 14:59

Open 0.009162 Previous Close 0.009136

High 0.009168 Low 0.009062

Bid 0.009081 Ask 0.009079

Volume 3,307 Open Int. 94349

[UpInArms]

4. Scramble to skirt foreclosure

http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2004/09/02/scramble_to_skirt_foreclosure/

Seeking to avoid red tape,expense, lenders developnew strategies to dealwith delinquent loans

Commercial property owners all over the Boston area may be defaulting on loans to their empty buildings, but lenders are avoiding foreclosures.

In a trend that defies conventional real estate patterns, banks and other financiers are cutting deals -- from quickly selling loans at a discount to softening the terms -- to avoid the expense and red tape of foreclosures. And in some cases, the original owners or developers are regaining control of the real estate.

''There's beginning to be a whole new round of delinquencies," said George J. Fantini Jr., chairman of Fantini & Gorga, a real estate advisory firm in Boston. And lenders, he said, ''have adopted entirely new strategies."

Foreclosures, so common in the crash of the early 1990s, aren't unheard of today. But they are rapidly being preempted by a range of less onerous alternatives.

''The lenders would rather work it out, as opposed to taking it back on the books and be in it for the long haul," said Marci Griffith Loeber, executive director of Cushman & Wakefield of Massachusetts Inc., a real estate services firm.

When South Boston land owner Frank H. McCourt Jr. recently ran into trouble on his 51 Sleeper St. building, his lender, a syndicate of investors, put the note on the market. Hunneman Capital Group, which is brokering the $22 million loan, is expected to select a winning bidder in the next few days, and someone is likely to grab the eight-story building with good potential for residential use for $15 million to $19 million -- a big discount. McCourt, meanwhile, could have a hand in the property's redevelopment.

...more...

[UpInArms]

5. here are the "jobs created" numbers

8:30am 09/03/04 U.S. AUG. NONFARM PAYROLLS UP 144K VS. 158K EXPECTED

8:30am 09/03/04 U.S. AUG. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 5.4% VS. 5.5% EXPECTED

8:30am 09/03/04 U.S. JUNE, JULY NONFARM PAYROLLS REVISED UP 59,000

8:30am 09/03/04 U.S. AUG. AVERAGE WORKWEEK UNCHANGED AT 33.8 HOURS

8:30am 09/03/04 U.S. AUG. FACTORY JOBS UP 22,000; SERVICES UP 108,000

8:30am 09/03/04 U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF 5.4% LOWEST SINCE OCT. 2001

[UpInArms]

6. U.S. nonfarm payrolls up 144,000 - Unemployment rate falls to 5.4%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD10501B2%2D85A3%2D4D02%2DA8E8%2DEEDD8502C9C8%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S job growth snapped back in August after two disappointing months, rising 144,000, the Labor Department estimated Friday.

The unemployment rate fell by a tenth percentage point to 5.4 percent, the lowest since October 2001.

Job growth in June and July was revised higher by a cumulative 59,000. July's gain was revised from 32,000 to 73,000.

<snip>

The president's re-election team was obviously hoping for stronger growth to cement its claim that the economy is "strong and getting stronger" thanks to the tax cuts Bush delivered.

<snip>

According to a survey of some 400,000 business establishments, goods-producing industries created 36,000 jobs in August, including 22,000 in manufacturing and 15,000 in construction.

Service-producing industries created 108,000 jobs, including 42,000 in health-care and social assistance industries. Financial services created 18,000. Temporary help services were flat.

Of 278 industries, jobs were created in 54.5 percent in August, down from 54.9 percent in July and the recent peak of 68.7 percent in April. Of 84 manufacturing industries, 51.8 percent created jobs in August, down from 60.1 percent in July.

In a separate survey of 60,000 households, the government found employment rose by 21,000 and unemployment fell by 174,000 to 8.02 million. With employment up and the labor force falling by 152,000, the jobless rate slipped to 5.4 percent.

...more...

[54anickel]

21. Non-Farm Payrolls - A Rebound Is In the Cards (FX forecast) bit late

as in after the fact but interesting perspective.

http://www.dailyfx.com/article_rr_054.html

Last month, we published an article questioning whether US non-farm payrolls will once again fall short of forecasts - and as expected, we were not disappointed. The experts in the market called for payrolls to increase a robust 240k, and as we all know now, payrolls only increased a measly 32k. Jobs were lost in a number of different sectors that are particularly sensitive either directly or indirectly to oil prices. This month, we do not feel the need to re-ask this question, since without doubt payrolls are expected to have increased during the month of August. More importantly will be the size and scope of the increase in payrolls, as the market is hanging on the belief that the US economic recovery will soon pickup steam and is nearly begging for any information that would support this case. Relief is in sight with the recent pullback in oil, but its effects will not likely be accounted for in the August payrolls.

With a good portion of the market away on holiday, what will it take to move markets?

Payrolls greater than 175k: Dollar positive, could push Euro to bottom of range 1.1950

Payrolls 100k-175k: Muted reaction in direction of surprise at best, no meaningful move expected

Payrolls less than 100k: Dollar negative, indicates that further tightening by Fed is now at risk, rally expected, but not break of 1.2450 high


Taking a look at the facts indicates that unlike the prior two non-farm payrolls report, there is clearer evidence that payrolls will most likely fall into our second scenario of 100k-175k job growth this time around. Here are the facts:

more...

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. 144,000 August jobs and 32,000 last month?

Now only 5.85 million short of Bush's promise from campaign 2000.

[Tempest]

11. July figures were adjusted up to 73,000

And if you believe that, I have a bridge to sell you.

[UpInArms]

13. remember that June's numbers

were revised from 78K to 32K

[54anickel]

18. And July's target was 243,000, still a wee-bit short.

[UpInArms]

8. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

09:03 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +0.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.0. Futures market maintains its improved stance, but still has a ways to go before the Nasdaq reaches fair value... The August employment report has proved to be a mixed bag - nonfarm payrolls (at 144K) good enough to stave off economic slowdown concerns, but not strong enough to point to robust job creation... The report has had the same effect on interest rate expectations (no clear message)... This has effectively kept the futures trade in a holding pattern.

08:32 ET S&P futures vs fair value: -0.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.5. Futures trade lifts off its lows in response to the in line, to slightly better than expected, August jobs report... Nonfarm payrolls 71K to 144K (consensus of +150K) and July nonfarm payrolls were revised higher to 73K (from 32K).. As a result, the indices are now set for a moderately lower open (as opposed to a sharply lower open).

08:02 ET S&P futures vs fair value: -3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.5. Cash market poised for a noticeably lower open following INTC's mid-quarter update last night in which the world's largest semiconductor company cut revenues, gross margin, and capex guidance... Apprehension ahead of the August employment report - due out at 8:30 ET - also has the futures market uneasy... The market will be looking for +150K in nonfarm payrolls.

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was sharply lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Despite overnight weakness the September NASDAQ 100 remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1379.30. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term is in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1357.25 would confirm that the rebound off August's low has come to an end. The September NASDAQ 100 was down 13.50 pt. at 1384.50 as of 5:49 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally but remains above the 62% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1113.16. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but overbought hinting that a short- term top might be near. Multiple closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1104.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If this month's rally continues, the 75% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1125.67 is the next upside target. The September S&P 500 Index was down 5.70 pts. at 1113.80 as of 5:52 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

9. 9:40 EST numbers and some more pre-opening blather

Dow 10,297.35 +7.07 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 1,858.56 -14.87 (-0.79%)
S&P 500 1,117.13 -1.18 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.265% +0.071

09:16 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +0.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.0. Cash market still set for a relatively flat, to moderately lower, open as the futures trade remains unchanged... The treasury market, conversely, is noticeably lower following the August jobs report, but not as low as one would expect - perhaps in light of the fact that nonfarm payrolls (144K) were still under the consensus estimate (150K).

[UpInArms]

10. ISM report in and lower than "expectations"

10:00am 09/03/04 U.S. AUG. ISM NONMANUFACTURING INDEX 62.8% VS. 64.8%

OOPS! They just issued a "correction"

10:01am 09/03/04 CRRCT: U.S. AUG. ISM NONMANUFACTURING 58.2% VS 64.8%

[UpInArms]

16. AUGUST NON-MANUFACTURING ISM REPORT ON BUSINESS

Business Activity at 58.2%

http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NMROB092004.cfm

excerpt:

The Backlog of Orders Index decreased by 2 percentage points to 53 percent, indicating growth in order backlogs for the 16th consecutive month but at a slower rate of increase than in July. The August New Orders Index decreased from 66.4 percent in July to 58.6 percent in August. This indicates a slower rate of increase of new orders in August compared to July. Members reported that the prices they pay increased in August for the 29th consecutive month, with a somewhat slower rate of increase than in July. August's Prices Index is 70 percent, a decline of 3.1 percentage points from the 73.1 percent reported in July. This month, 40 percent of all respondents and 14 of 17 non-manufacturing industries reported paying higher prices compared to July. Many of members' comments regarding business in August indicate continued positive business conditions but with concern for slowing growth rates and continued concern about inflationary pressures. Specific comments include: "Overall economic conditions have stabilized, but growing at a slower rate than earlier this year"; "Economy recovering slowly"; "Slow advances are appearing in multiple sectors"; "The rise in the price of fuel is affecting all areas of the organization"; and "Business continues to track better than last year, same time period."

In addition, Inventories increased for the sixth consecutive month. With regard to Inventory Sentiment for August, members reported a lower level of concern than in July that inventories are too high. New Export Orders increased for the 13th consecutive month and Imports increased for the 16th consecutive month. Employment increased after being flat in July. Supplier Deliveries indicated slower performance for the 36th consecutive month.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. 10:04 EST numbers

Dow 10,284.31 -5.97 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,857.89 -15.54 (-0.83%)
S&P 500 1,117.04 -1.27 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.250% +0.056

[54anickel]

15. Consumers Slowing Down

http://www.prudentbear.com/midweekanalysis.asp

Economic data released this week revealed that growth in the manufacturing sector started to moderate in August. On Tuesday, the Chicago purchasing manager index dropped 7.4 points in August, reversing most of the 8.3 point gain in July. Most of the weakness was in production, new orders and order backlog. Inventory increased by six points to 61.3 and employment bounced back, rising 5.5 points to 51.1. Prices paid jumped nine points to 86.6, the highest level since July 1988. On Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management released its survey of manufacturing purchasing managers. The headline number fell three points to 59, which is the lowest level this year. The more heavily weighted components dropped the most. Production fell 6.6 to 59.5,the lowest since September 2003, and new orders dropped 3.5, but remained well north of 50 at 61.2. The only components that rose were the two inventory measures and prices paid. Inventories advanced 1.8 points to the highest level since a spike in January 2000 and customer inventories were up 8 to the highest level since June 2003. It needs to be noted that every sub-index except customer inventories remained above 50. So business activity is still expanding, but just at a slower rate. We have expected these diffusion indexes to drop since they measure the month to month change of whether business activity is increasing. Even with the headline number dropping three points to the lowest level of the year, the index is higher than any period from 1995 to last year.

Consumer confidence fell in August for the first time in six months according to the Conference Board. The 7.5 point drop was more severe than the 2.2 point decline economists had forecasted. Consumers were more cautious regarding the future as the expectations component dropped 8.7 points to 96.6, compared to the current situation which fell by a more modest 5.7 points to 100.7. The current situation component remained higher than any month since mid-2002, excluding the past two months. Consumers got a little more cautious regarding the labor market. After five consecutive months of viewing jobs being more plentiful than the previous month, it dropped by 1.6 points, with those viewing jobs not plentiful or hard to get increasing.

The weekly ABC News Consumer Comfort Index has also dropped over the past month, from -4 during the first week of August to the -11 that was reported on Tuesday. Interestingly, the decline in confidence has been from weakness in the economy and the buying climate. Respondents’ opinion of their personal finances has been stable. This might be partially explained by the political rhetoric from the Presidential campaign. Looking back at 1992, when the health of the economy was a central issue in the Presidential election, consumer confidence peaked in June and fell every month until November.

Consumers have slowed their pace of spending lately. According to the revised GDP data released last week, personal consumption grew by 1.6% during the second quarter. This was the slowest increase in spending since the second quarter of 2001 on a quarter-over-quarter basis. But on a year-over-year basis, personal consumption increased 3.6%. While this rate of growth is lower than the previous two quarters, it is higher than every other quarter, except one (third quarter of 2002 was also 3.6%), going back to the fourth quarter of 2000.

more...

[54anickel]

17. In U.S., public pay rises fastest

http://www.iht.com/articles/537097.html

Big government is back. And while that fact may not exactly have been heralded at Madison Square Garden at the Republican National Convention this week, it is largely responsible for the best long-term economic statistic that Republicans cited as they made the case for giving President George W. Bush a second term.
.
By one measure, Bush has presided over the largest expansion of government since his father and may yet beat him out in that category, which is not exactly one that conservatives like to boast about. That category is the share of national wage and salary income that comes directly from governments. And it turns out that this fact is largely responsible for the economic good news.
.
In the Republican platform, most of the economic statistics referred to recent months. "Over the last year," the Republicans stated, "gross domestic product grew at one of the fastest rates in two decades." It reported that since August 2003, "1.5 million new jobs have been created."
.
Such numbers ignore the recession at the beginning of the Bush administration, and the slow recovery that followed until growth took off in mid-2003, when one tax cut - the child credit - put significant cash in the pockets of parents just in time to make that year's back-to-school shopping season a very good one.
.
But one statistic did stand out: "Real after-tax incomes are up by 9.6 percent since December 2000."
.
more...

[54anickel]

19. Third Month of Slow Sales for Retailers

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/03/business/03shop.html

The August start of the back-to-school shopping season was a disappointment for major retailers, delivering a third straight month of tepid sales and the weakest gain in almost a year and a half. Higher gasoline prices and consumers' worries about jobs contributed to the poor showing.

Even Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the industry leader, suffered last month, turning in its weakest performance in three and a half years. Its sales at stores open at least a year, known as same-store sales, rose 0.5 percent, less than analysts' forecasts of a 1.5 percent gain. Wal-Mart pared its third-quarter sales and profit forecast after releasing its results.

According to the Goldman, Sachs retail composite index, sales at stores open at least a year rose 0.4 percent last month,

The discouraging news came from nearly all retail sectors and raised concerns that consumers who have helped prop up the economy with spending might now be holding back.

The big exceptions were high-end stores, whose customers were the first to benefit from the economic recovery and who have not been as vulnerable to rising gas prices.

snip>

Many high-end department stores again beat expectations. Same-store sales rose 7.2 percent at Nordstrom Inc., surpassing Wall Street's 4.7 percent estimate. The Neiman Marcus Group had a 14.7 percent gain, beating analysts' forecasts of 10.1 percent.

[UpInArms]

22. 11:10 EST numbers and blather

(yahoo charts not working)

DJIA 10,274.80 -15.48 -0.15%
NASDAQ 1,842.42 -31.01 -1.66%
S&P 500 1,114.82 -3.49 -0.31%

11:00AM: Equities dip below the unchanged mark, although Nasdaq remains remarkably weaker (-1.4%)... Around the bottom of the last hour, the tech sector again retreated and re-tested its lows of the day... At this juncture, the semiconductor group has just dropped below its 52-week low (around 360.6)... That (along with the rest of tech) has acted as a drag on the broader marke, and tugged it into negative territory (tech comprises 15% of the S&P 500)...

As for the Dow, it has been helped out by solid gains in Wal-Mart (WMT 53.79 +0.77) in part of a rebound effort off yesterday's losses (due to disappointing August same store sales)...SOX -4.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 1218/1683, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1010/1615

10:30AM: The market heads a bit lower, undercut by the much weaker than expected August ISM Services index... The non-manufacturing report dropped 6.6 points to 58.2 (consensus of 62.2) as new orders declined and prices paid rose - signaling that inflation is playing a role in the deceleration of growth since April... Economically-sensitive sectors continue to be the main target of sellers as tech, industrial, transportation, and material drift lower... Conversely, defensive-oriented groups like consumer staple and health care have lured buyers off the sidelines...

The market continues to interpret the August employment report in a slightly negative light... While it was good enough to quiet further talk about a 'jobless recovery,' it was not strong enough to renew confidence in the labor market...NYSE Adv/Dec 1286/1498, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1073/1420

[54anickel]

24. Heh-heh!!! Thanks. Thought I was loosing it.

[UpInArms]

25. here's a link

for numbers

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/markets/indexes.asp

[54anickel]

23. Weird, my Yahoo for numbers won't refresh - still at 10:59 am

I'm stuck in a time warp!

[UpInArms]

27. Three-Week Furlough For St. Paul Ford Workers

http://wcco.com/localnews/local_story_247084211.html

(from the Google news page: )
It's an unexpected and probably unwelcome vacation for workers at St. Paul's Ford plant. Some 1,600 workers will be furloughed for three weeks later this fall.

St. Paul (AP) Workers at the Ford Motor Co. plant here will be furloughed for three weeks this fall as Ford cuts production of the Ranger pickup truck made here.

Supervisors at the St. Paul plant distributed letters to employees Thursday confirming layoffs for one week starting Oct. 4, and for two weeks starting Nov. 15, said Rob McKenzie, president of United Auto Workers Local 879.

The three-week shutdown affects about 1,600 workers, he said. It wasn't immediately clear whether managers and supervisors would be included.

Ford had released a dismal monthly sales report earlier this week showing a drop across all Ford brands except Volvo. The Ranger suffered the steepest drop of the Ford brands in August, with sales falling about 47 percent from 23,438 trucks to 12,510. Across all of its vehicle lines, Ford announced that it would cut fourth production to 830,000, down from 900,000 during the same period last year.

...more...

[UpInArms]

28. 11:35 update and gotta run

DJIA 10,277.53 -12.75 -0.12%
NASDAQ 1,842.85 -30.58 -1.63%
SP500 1,115.20 -3.11 -0.28%

11:30 ET Major indices decline to new session lows as the tech sector continues to roll over... Software, semiconductor, computer hardware, networking, disk drive, storage, communication equipment, and internet are all registering losses of 1.8% or more, with the semi shares down a whopping 4.9%... The implications set forth by Intel (INTC 19.99 -1.64) - that problems were not company-specific but symptomatic of a greater industry slowdown - have spooked the entire group and prompted traders to take stocks lower in anticipation of further warnings down the road... Prudential actually downgraded the Semiconductor sector to Unfavorable from Neutral citing its expectation for further downward EPS revisions... Briefing.com's Upgrade/ Downgrade Briefing covers the call... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1028/1984. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 788/1905.

:hi:

[DoBotherMe]

29. 1:17

Dow 10,287.92 -2.36 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 1,845.39 -28.04 (-1.50%)
S&P 500 1,115.94 -2.37 (-0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.291% +0.097
NYSE Volume 545,975,000
Nasdaq Volume 798,956,000

[54anickel]

30. A piece of the action

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=35726

snip>

Why then would the 10-Year Treasury yield far less than the risk-adjusted expectation? The answer, of course, is Japan. The bid and ask prices have been set across the Pacific Ocean between borrower government and creditor government – between the United States and Japan.

To the Japanese government, any rate received from US Treasuries, 10-Year or otherwise, will be much higher than the interest rates set for borrowing money from its domestic savers. Money can be borrowed on the cheap from domestic Japanese savings deposits.

The deposited savings (banking liability) can be used to purchase US Treasury bonds (banking asset). The difference between interest earned and interest paid is profit. Japan makes a profit on every dollar purchased via US Treasury bonds.

Unfortunately, Japanese savers are not getting enough yield to justify the risk of default. Perhaps for this reason, I have not seen it acknowledged elsewhere that a profitable interest rate differential, or arbitrage, exists between Japanese savings and US borrowings.

For this scam to continue to work, the Bank of Japan must keep domestic savings rates low and the yen weak. I believe that without Japan, the 10-Year would be yielding between seven and 15 per cent. Long ago, individual US investors collectively had enough savings to purchase domestic treasury instruments at a fair rate of return. Priced domestically, the US 10-Year rate should not be anywhere near its current level of 4.11 per cent.

The reward-to-risk ratio has been mis-priced to risk. It has been priced instead to the deflationary context of Japan. In effect, the US has been importing Japanese deflation.

more...

[54anickel]

31. Riggs Evidence Suggests Crimes By Employees

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A57545-2004Sep2.html

Riggs Banks investigators have found evidence of possible criminal activities by some former employees who managed the accounts of former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet and have referred their findings to federal prosecutors, according to several sources familiar with the matter.

The referrals emerged from an internal investigation of possible money laundering in Riggs's dealings with Pinochet and Chile going back to the mid-1980s, said the sources, who are familiar with the probe and spoke only on condition of anonymity because the investigation is still in its early stages.

Investigators retracing transactions in Pinochet's Riggs accounts also have found evidence that some of his associates and family members moved large sums of money through at least four other U.S. banks, including Citibank and Bank of America, the sources said.

The Justice Department and the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia are investigating possible money laundering at Riggs involving Pinochet and officials of the government of Equatorial Guinea. Riggs had made a previous referral to the Justice Department related to Simon P. Kareri, who was Equatorial Guinea's account manager at Riggs and is the subject of a grand jury investigation in the District.

more...

[54anickel]

32. China Says Influx of Capital Hurts Efforts to Cool Economy

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/03/business/worldbusiness/03zhou.html

BEIJING, Sept. 2 - China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, said the government's efforts to slow the economy are at a critical stage, with monetary policy becoming harder to put in place because of rising inflows of foreign capital.

"The amount of foreign currency converted to yuan continues to grow at a fast pace and the central bank is still putting a relatively high volume of base money into circulation,'' Mr. Zhou has said in a speech made earlier that was posted on the People's Bank of China's Web site.

The central bank has to print yuan to exchange foreign money entering the country in order to maintain China's currency peg against the dollar. The process raises the money supply and crimps the government's efforts to cool loan growth. China used 536 billion yuan ($65 billion) to soak up foreign exchange in the first half, the central bank said in a report last month. The yuan has been pegged at 8.277 to the dollar since 1995.

snip>

Mr. Zhou's comments are the latest in a series by senior leaders suggesting the tightening of credit is unlikely to be eased yet. Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said the cooling measures are not fully in effect yet and more needs to be done to rein in investment, a state broadcaster reported in early August.

Mr. Zhou's speech did not mention interest rates. The central bank has held off tightening borrowing costs while it studies the effect of the lending curbs. China's one-year lending rate, 5.31 percent, has not been raised since July 1995.

more...

[54anickel]

33. 2:13 entering the magical hour - or has everyone gone home for the holiday

Dow 10,285.49 -4.79 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,845.73 -27.70 (-1.48%)
S&P 500 1,115.71 -2.60 (-0.23%)
10-yr Bond 4.293% +0.099
30-yr Bond 5.061% +0.076
NYSE Volume 626,252,000
Nasdaq Volume 900,015,000

2:00PM: The early volatility related to the employment data, Intel's disappointing news and then the ISM report has run its course leaving the averages narrowly confined for the last few hours. The semi index has seen a little pressure develop during this period and it did establish a fresh session/52-wk low. While bearish follow through in the SOX (-5.1%) has been lacking thus far, it remains vulnerable. In the financial arena, the banking sector (BKX) moved to a new four plus month high, although it has edged back. The insurance group (IUX) has seen only a minor pause in its uptrend off the August lows related to the latest hurricane with the index actually gaining more than 3% over the last two days from low to high. NYSE Adv/Dec 1300/1879, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1033/1873

1:30PM: Minor new session lows for a few tech sectors this afternoon (semi, software) which has weighed on the Nasdaq but it has been able to hold above its morning trough. The Dow and S&P 500 remain within now well defined intraday ranges just modestly lower. Today's action in the SOX (-5.1%) leaves it below the range that has persisted for most of the last month as well as at its lowest level in 14 months. Intel (INTC -7.3%) of course is the driver as it reduced Q3 revenues, gross margin, and capex guidance but the pain has been across the board in this group (AMD -7.4%, ALTR -6.4%, XLNX -5.7%, NVLS -5.4%, BRCM -5.4%) as well as the overall market based on the firmly bearish internals. NYSE Adv/Dec 1204/1947, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 959/1919

[54anickel]

34. Greenspan's Ducks take flight

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/george/george090204.html

Time was when the 'Honourable Fed Chairman' spoke in measured tones that markets moved. No more. Having recently had his tenure extended for another term, Greenspan could be forgiven for wishing he'd turned the offer down. Things are beginning to fall apart. The centre cannot hold. It used to be that the old man was miraculously able to keep 'all his ducks in a row,' even though the promise of food never materialized. The magic is fading. In rapid succession the ducks are giving up and taking flight.

First it was the Iraqi War Duck as the situation spiraled out of control. He was naturally followed by the Oil Duck as the price accelerated to new highs. Last week the Dow Duck flapped his wings with increasing consternation as growth prospects faded. The Dollar Duck bobbed in concert as the July trade deficit hit an all-time peak of $56billion. Only the Bond Duck looked set to stay, having scooted to the far end of the lake to hide under a bush. He's been conned into a false sense of security and will soon get a wake-up call when he sees the Dollar Duck has dumped him and fled.

They will all be gone by dawn. Then comes a Golden Sunrise.

1. IRAQI WAR DUCK - Death knell of US Empire

If the war situation in IRAQ continues to worsen over a protracted period of time, it could negatively affect US interests across a broad political and economic front, eventually turning the Middle East into a no-go area for US business. It could prove to be the last straw in a dangerous buildup of threatening situations, triggering a landslide collapse in the dollar and US markets, and a long term surge in oil and gold prices. If allowed to deteriorate sufficiently, it could spell the beginning of the end for the erstwhile dominant position of the US. To date the only dividend has been the incarceration of Saddam.

more..

[54anickel]

35. 2:50 Cashin' out and headin' home

Dow 10,270.74 -19.54 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 1,842.97 -30.46 (-1.63%)
S&P 500 1,114.19 -4.12 (-0.37%)
10-yr Bond 4.293% +0.099
30-yr Bond 5.061% +0.076
NYSE Volume 692,572,000
Nasdaq Volume 980,726,000

2:30PM: Choppy trade persists with the averages remaining within their very narrow afternoon ranges. More interest has surfaced in the energy area and in particular the oil service sector (OSX) as it has established a new 52-wk high this afternoon. Top performers in this group today include: BJS +2.3%, TDW +2.5%, SLB +2.1%, SII +2.1%, HAL +1.8%. Consumer/consumer staples and chemical have also shown modest strength. Volume is running above the pace noted during yesterday's gains at the Nasdaq while NYSE action is roughly equal. NYSE Adv/Dec 1337/1851, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1041/1890

2:00PM: The early volatility related to the employment data, Intel's disappointing news and then the ISM report has run its course leaving the averages narrowly confined for the last few hours. The semi index has seen a little pressure develop during this period and it did establish a fresh session/52-wk low. While bearish follow through in the SOX (-5.1%) has been lacking thus far, it remains vulnerable. In the financial arena, the banking sector (BKX) moved to a new four plus month high, although it has edged back. The insurance group (IUX) has seen only a minor pause in its uptrend off the August lows related to the latest hurricane with the index actually gaining more than 3% over the last two days from low to high. NYSE Adv/Dec 1300/1879, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1033/1873


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1321 (39%) 1057 (33%)
Declines 1878 (55%) 1893 (60%)
Unchanged 181 (5%) 166 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 271 (41%) 131 (13%)
Down Vol* 371 (56%) 810 (85%)
Unch. Vol* 15 (2%) 6 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 148 61
New Lo's 15 33

[54anickel]

36. Something's a Brewin'

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/norcini090204.html

snip>

This brings me to what I would particularly like to focus on in this essay. I have fielded more than a fair share of questions of late with the common theme of: "Why is everything so wacky and jumpy out there?" My answer is that I believe that what lies behind this incessant schizophrenic price behavior we are witnessing is the lack of conviction among many of the major participants. Simply put, a great number of people are becoming increasingly confused as to what is actually taking place out there. Why? Answer - Their fundamental analysis is being contradicted by technical signals on an almost regular basis. It is this contradiction which is producing the uncertainty in the mind of many of the major players. Having carefully formulated a fundamental approach to the market, these players enter their positions which almost immediately seem to go sour. Let this happen often enough and sooner or later even the best traders begin to doubt their own judgment at times. Out of fear that they might be wrong, they are ready to quickly abandon their positions and even reverse them. Instead of trading from a position of confident strength, they become jumpy and nervous and find themselves flip flopping back and forth between the long side of the market and the short side.

Some of those of you who are reading this might not believe that this is possible, but I will assure you as a long time trader, this is something that every trader WILL experience at some point in their trading career should they last long enough. Price action that does not confirm your judgment can be very unsettling especially after long hours of meticulous research. Once you become convinced that you are right and yet watch time after time as the market moves against you, it does indeed tend to rattle your confidence. You begin to make mistakes and operate out of fear. Once that occurs, it seems as if everything begins to snowball and things go from bad to worse.

The question that should now present itself to a thinking individual is exactly why this seems to be occurring - i.e., - what is causing the technical signals that are conflicting with the fundamental view of many of the major players and creating this volatility? This trader believes that it is official sector intervention into the market place that is the blame, especially the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) as it moves to prop up the dollar on an almost regular basis.

Look at it this way - the financial authorities who have hatched their plans in secret, want nothing else but to see those plans implemented with as few impediments as possible. Enter the speculators and the mega hedge funds. This group is the bane of central planners since their actions tend to exacerbate price moves especially in the Forex arena. What the Central Planners such as the Fed or the Bank of Japan for instance want to avoid, is allowing these hedge funds to concentrate their firepower on one side on the market and then pile on more and more and more positions. Once the specs can generate sufficient price movement to begin a trend in one direction, the trend begins to feed on itself as the momentum begins to build which draws more specs into the market on that same side and so on and so on and so on. Before long the price move begins to accelerate sharply and take on a life of its own.

more...

[54anickel]

37. Closing

Dow 10,260.20 -30.08 (-0.29%)
Nasdaq 1,844.48 -28.95 (-1.55%)
S&P 500 1,113.63 -4.68 (-0.42%)
10-yr Bond 4.293% +0.099
30-yr Bond 5.061% +0.076
NYSE Volume 923,973,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,245,203,000

3:30PM: The market indices have edged off their respective afternoon lows in recent trade and are probing the upper end of their intraday ranges. Looking ahead to next week we have only a few stocks reporting earnings (CAH, FLE, HOV, UTIW before the open, NMG, VTS after) on Tuesday and no economic data. While it remains to be seen how the hurricane that is to hit Florida could impact the overall market, there has been a tendency for the averages to rally in the session after Labor Day. Nasdaq 100 -1.5%, Russell 2000 -0.4%, SOX -4.9%, NYSE Adv/Dec 1318/1915, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1046/1929



U.S. stocks end lower under pressure from Intel
http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040903/0d949964c5f59631ba518550b76f988b_1.html

[KoKo]

38. Have a safe weekend everyone...and a good holiday if you aren't in

an impending "weather disaster area." So many great articles posted here, that I didn't get to read this week, so I will be going through archives as the weekend goes along to catch up.

:hi: Have a Great One!