China to have 140 mln cars by 2020

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-09/05/content_1946578.htm

BEIJING, Sept. 5 (Xinhuanet) -- China expects to have 140 million automobiles plying its roads by 2020, seven times more than now, fueling demand for transportation infrastructure and services, state media reports.

Li Xinghua, deputy director of the Communication Ministry's Comprehensive Planning Department, predicted that China's auto population would eventually reach around 250 million, or about 150 cars per 1,000 people.

Government statistics show that China produced a record four million autos in 2003, when the number of private cars grew by 80 percent thanks to the country's strong economic advance and growing middle class, according to China Daily.

It is estimated that this year's production will top five million units, making China the world's third-largest auto manufacturer after the United States and Japan.

<snip>

On edit: http://www.mwscomp.com/sounds/mp3/chinese.mp3

[Demeter]

1. Not Bloody Likely

But they are welcome to try--might get us some modern, efficient fuels and technology that way.

[Broadslidin]

2. Bloody Likely........

2020 minimum wage in the Imperial United States: 31 cents

[Mr.Green93]

3. In order to share the resources

the U.S. should limit households to just one vehicle.

[Radius]

6. one kid too?

I disagree with that one. The us should mandate support for bio-diesel conversion over a 5 year cycle into the fleet and a 10 year cycle to make all new diesels capable of running on b100 where available. Pretty cheap conversion.

Run it in mine (b20 50 where available)eco friendly and smells good too.

The space shullte has used feul cells for 20 years, time to get them into motion. Need more power to make hydrogen, will require more power plants. Only one way to make cheap, non petro based power...

[Gregorian]

4. Very very frightening.

Twenty years, I've been blabbing about this. If you think we have problems now, just watch. And it's not impossible. Just Japan alone is auctioning off as many as 1500 cars a day to developing countries. The old cars are not being crushed, but adopted. There are many troubling things about this, the least of which is, you guessed it- OIL.
Cars are hell.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

5. The repercussions of this are frightening on many levels.

Obviously the oil, but it seems as if they are creating a WPA of sorts in building the highway system. The economic growth of China will be staggering.

[Radius]

7. Communism meet Capitalism

The emergence of china as a full western trading power will be impressive. If they can get their house in order in Taiwan they will be huge importer. They are a large exporter now of low priced labor based goods. As they grow they will begin to demand all sorts of products.

[Elginoid]

8. what will they seek to import...?

that they can't make for themselves?

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

9. Jobs?

Good point. That is the $20,000.00 question.

[Radius]

14. Goods

German Cars, Ferrari's,Yamaha sport bikes, French Wine, perfume. Software and computer hardware, networking equipment, heavy equipment. Nikon cameras and specialized tractors. List goes on.

They make all kinds of stuff, mostly low quality products that require semi skilled labor or non skilled labor. No one is buying a Chinese car, bulldozer, or cameras outside of china for a reason.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

18. They were saying the same thing about Japanese goods in the 60's

It was a running joke that anything from Japan was cheep and poorly made... Then the Honda 50cc hit the streets and things began to change.

You have to look beyond the present, grasshopper.

[Radius]

19. I remember

when everyone was pissed at Japanese imports, even though American recalls exceeded half the cars sold in a year.

I'm not saying they can't make the goods. The don't make them now. So they will import them.

Japan is a huge trading partner BTW and still makes the most sophisticated electronic equipment in Asia.

[himself]

24. China rising

"No one is buying a Chinese car, bulldozer, or cameras outside of china for a reason."

We are all buying products with Chinese-made elements, including microchips. Bet you would be hard pressed to find a car, dozer or camera without some Chinese component. The quality of goods is uneven, with some at world standard (e.g., chips that are designed and built by homegrown talent), and others that are low grade (for the moment).

In a country of 1.3 billion people, going from an agricultural to industrial/post industrial economy in a generation or two, development will continue to be uneven but dramatic. No country on the planet has achieved as much for as many people (education is universal, and English is taught in most primary schools - life span equals that in the West - men and women are more nearly equal in status and income - hunger has ended, and on and on. These and other monumental achievements have occurred in 50 years, with more mind boggling advances to come.

If China does ape the U.S. and go car crazy, there goes the ozone layer, which Chinese planners know. But events in a country of the PRC's size are beyond day to day control, even year to year. Central gov't policies get implemented locally, where control by the center is tenuous sometimes. Corruption occurs and is a capital crime on a certain scale (here Kenny Boy walks free), but China continues to make stunning progress.

For sure, the Chinese are not "mad" as some have suggested, despite the incongruence of superhighways with no traffic. Some day, highways will be full. Some Chinese wonder about the sanity of a country that worships guns and violence, and elects incompetent leaders (a Beijing taxi driver asked me why W was such a bully and so dumb).

Who are "the Chinese" anyway? 1.3 billion people, each unique, with personal ambitions and talents and livelihoods, dealing with life each day, under the pressures of overpopulation and limited material resources, doing it more effectively and productively than most others in similar circumstances.

"They" are people just like us: Wang Daohua, the shrimp farmer in Guangzhou - Liu Bingxun, the physics professor in Qingdao - Lao Xu, the pedicab driver in Suzhou - Yong Haohui, the cardiogist in Shanghai - Zhang Hongwei, the jet pilot in Xi'an - Li Mingxu, oil roughneck in Chengdu - and Fong Xidian, a disco dancer in Beijing - plus their friends and families and a billion or so of their fellow citizens, and their children's children - all here to stay. Together with "us" they will be one of several leading powers a generation from now, and more to the point, fellow human beings struggling to survive.

DUers who are uncommonly savvy about the U.S. political scene may some day decide to expand the mission, and do more to enlighten our own fellow citizens about people and places over the horizon(s). Takes as much or more effort to see what is happening and why and how in the international realm, especially in countries so inscrutable as the PRC, as it does closer to home.

[Radius]

27. Tiawan

Makes lots of microchips china does not. Caterpillar, John Deere have no chineese parts.

Nor does a Nikon F body, or a cisco router.

I think my socks may be made in china..

They are a growing power and hopefully will adopt newer technology that is more enviromentally friendly.

[mbperrin]

28. Here's some Caterpillar info...

Caterpillar eyes stakes in Chinese companies
2004-06-30 15:10
Jeremy Grant and Peter Marsh in Peoria
Bloomberg

http://en.icxo.com/htmlnews/2004/06/30/6508.htm

<skip down>
Caterpillar preferred acquisitions to further joint ventures. The group, the worlds largest maker of earth-moving equipment, has four joint ventures in excavator, tractor, castings and small diesel engines in China, as well as two wholly-owned projects in compactors and electric generator sets.

Caterpillar has already said it is exploring an alliance with Shandong Engineering Machinery, a government-owned maker of construction machines, but has declined to give further details of other Chinese companies it is talking to.
<more>

[Radius]

30. Export

This is export technology. This is good for cat in china. It is not cost effective to ship a d9 across the pacific to sell. You make it in china and sell it.

[mbperrin]

33. But the point is that these Cats DO

have Chinese parts, right?

[Radius]

37. Are they sold in the US?

You are correct, but no CAT engine I have seen, marine diesel or heavy equipment has any part stamped made in china.

I will look it up to confirm.

[mbperrin]

29. And some John Deere info....

Deere, IBP positioned to tap Chinese market's potential
Saul Shapiro, Waterloo Courier

http://www.psu.edu/dept/comm/outreach/shapiro4.html

<skip down>
Deere announced last August its John Deere Tiantuo Co. Ltd. joint venture
with Tianjin Tractor at a plant 100 miles from the capital of Beijing annually
would produce 9,000 tractors --- basic models at 55, 60, 75 and 80 horsepower.
Deere owns 51 percent of the joint venture, as part of a $21 million joint
investment.
<more>

[Radius]

32. More export

It is not cost effective to ship heavy equipment overseas. Good for JD, market penetration in china.

[mbperrin]

34. Again, these Deeres DO have Chinese parts,

right?

[Radius]

36. To My Knowledge

No john deere sold in the US has chineese parts. To do business in china you have to buy into existing companies, very controlled.

I have been around John deer tractors and Caterpillar equipment and never seen a part stamped made in china. Maybe if they were they would cost less. You could go on vacation to cancun for what it costs to replace a fuel pump on a caterpillar engine.

There may be a clock in the dash or something but the engine, frame, and core componets are made in the USA, by Americans.

[mbperrin]

31. Some Cisco stuff...

"The Challenge From China"

http://www.wanxiang.com/forbes.html

<skip down>

Huawei sells Cisco-type routers at a fraction of Cisco's price and gets a boost from IBM's marketing know-how. Last year overseas markets provided 10% of Shenzhen-based Huawei's $3.1 billion in sales, a threefold increase from 2000; the company hopes the overseas component can more than triple again, to 35%, by 2006. "There will be a lot of changes in the next five years," vows William Xu, a Huawei executive vice president.

Cisco wasn't paying much attention to Huawei--until recently. Now Cisco says it is considering legal action (for theft of intellectual property) against Huawei, hoping to stop a company one Wall Street analyst calls "the biggest reason I know to sell Cisco stock."

<more>

[Radius]

35. Knock Off

If your job depended on uptime of routers you would not use cheap chineese knock offs to run your network. Support from cisco is unparalelled. You get what you pay for with routers and switches.

Same with IBM. Would you run a 10 million dollar an hour business on a computer room with knock off machines.

Did you see the special about chineese knock off of calloway clubs. Golf clubs. Outcome they underperformed because they were cheap and shitty. If they are not making a good knock off golf club I wouldn't use their telecom equipment or risc computers.

I would not risk my job on that. Cisco and Juniper will own data until some makes a BETTER product, not just a knock off.

[himself]

40. "Knock-off's"?

John Deere tractors have been built in China for 20 years - a plant in Tianjin produces about 10,000 annually. In fact JD is a minor player there - the PRC builds more diesel engines than anyone in the world. Caterpilar operates 10 facilities in China. And Nikon cameras and lenses are built in Wuxi. The list is endless and grows by the day. Rather than knock-off's, they are the genuine artice. Nikon's quality standards are universal regardless of plant address, JD's too. You haven't seen a PRC-built deere dozer in the US, maybe because, as you observe, it wouldn't be cost effective to ship one from Tianjin to Moline.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

45. Think back, Radius. You are using the same logic America had

previous to the Japanese economic explosion. "All the great minds and work ethic resides in the USA the Japanese can only copy and make inferior products...

Shortly after that, Lee was looking for a Gov't bailout for Chrysler.

[airstrip1]

46. Stunning progress on the road to nowhere

Industrial capitalism already looked unsustainable before Nixon went to China. The fact that the Chinese have embraced the Western economic model so wholeheartedly just makes environmental catastrophe on a world wide scale even more inevitable. I had hoped that, as one of the worlds oldest and most profound civilisations, they would have come up with a better way. Instead they are repeating all our mistakes. You are right on one thing. They are just like us - STUPID.

[progressivebydesign]

10. THIS is what will cause the total collapse of our environment..

and GUESS who is over there, making this happen??? OUR auto industry. Cadillac just built a plant over there. Seems that the new middle class in China find autos to be the newest status symbol, and BIG FAT SUVs are the symbol of choice.

Don't you all find it so ironic that India and China are now enjoying a surge in middle class and upper income society???? Don't you love that? America, who appears to be importing most everything from China, and appears to be outsourcing our white collar work to India, is enjoying record poverty, homelessness, bankruptcy, unemployment, loss of health insurance, and business failures.

I just shake my head at the voters who are choosing Bush this time. What the fuck are they thinking?

[Radius]

11. My Honda

Was built in Ohio. My neighbors ford, mexico. My commercial ford truck michigan.

Fuel is the key here. Switching to agri based fuel will make a huge impact in our economy and environmental impact.

Biodiesel and Fuel cells are the way to go.

Biodiesel requires demand for the processing facilities and fuel cells require power, lots of power. There is only way to make fuel cells work and it requires expanding nuclear power generation capability.

[Career Prole]

12. They shall be using them for storage sheds and planters

when the oil is gone.

[Ohio rules]

16. The Chinese "Manifest Destiny" -

-They will take what they need.

When they need to take it.

( is that a Yogi-ism )

There is only so much capacity to pump oil from the ground. Only so much capacity to process it after that.
I'm pretty sure our middle east friends will be unable to continue this pace.

We need alternatives.
It means tax breaks to finance home grown research.
Time to go for it.

[Pert_UK]

13. I was in China last year for a few months....They're mad......

Obviously not the entire population, I'm not racist, but the way that things are done over there is insane.

For instance - a magnificent, huge new highway in Yunnan province being used by virtually no-one, with gangs of men pulling up newly-laid stones on the side of the road and another gang relaying them, thus ensuring "full employment". Massive petrol (gas) stations every few hundred yards - never a vehicle to be seen but with a minimum of 20 people on the forecourt waiting for a customer. Our driver filled up the bus while it was still running, whilst smoking a cigarette.

Moreover, my close friend had been living in Guangzhou for over a year. He said that the Chinese were essentially decreasing the traditional cycle-lanes and increasing the number of multi-way roads through the centre of big cities. Despite this there was still gridlock as more and more nouveau riche people demanded the right to demonstrate their affluence by driving around. Effectively the Chinese government is gridlocking city after city by increasing the access for cars. Sounds stupid, but it's true. I had to take motorbike taxis in Shanghai if I wanted to get anywhere in a hurry overland. Of course, only the rich city folk can afford cars, so you only get cars in the cities, where you need them least of all and where there are multiple other options for getting around (Shanghai, for instance, has a great bus network and tram system).

I saw someone sweeping the middle lane of a 6 lane motorway using a broom, as cars and lorries went past within inches at 60 mph, and several friends of mine were involved in car crashes or witnessed death on the city's roads in the short time I was with them. Oh, and a gang of luxury car smugglers were executed while I was there too, having failed to bribe the right officials I presume....

It's a recipe for disaster.....

[Spider Jerusalem]

15. Not likely to happen.

Petroleum demand is expected to outstrip supply within the year. There exists neither spare oil production capacity nor infrastructure for refining and processing; even if it did exist, the looming peak and decline of global oil production make this kind of future expansion of petroleum-based technology a pipe-dream. And none of the alternative fuels will enable it, either. Biodiesel, touted by many, would require utilisation of more land in the US than is currently devoted to agriculture to replace our energy needs; the same would hold true for any industrialised or industrialising nation.

Barring any radical technological advances on the cold fusion front, our current wasteful and energy-intensive way of life is doomed...and China, India, and any other country looking to industrialise, will find that they got to the party too late and aren't going to get anything but scraps from the feast the nations of the West have already gorged themselves at.

[Radius]

17. Biodiesel

can be created from plants farmers use as waste. Soil is planted with castor beans to cycle it. It was traditionally plowed under now it is cash.

There is a huge tobacco capacity that is going unused by dropping demand. Heard of the tobacco buyout? Every drop of oil used in a frier at a fast food resteraunt can be filtered and burned by its self or blended with #2 diesel. Resteraunts pay people to ger rid of the stuff.

Bet on biodiesel. I live in BFE and run it in my vehicle. Every diesel in the country can run b20 now.

Fuel cells will require long term commitment to nuclear power to generate hydrogen in quantity. 10 year lead minimum.

Biodiesel is online in major cities, states, and goverment vehicles now.

[Gregorian]

20. Biodiesel is not going to help global warming.

THAT is the issue. Running out of oil will be a blessing. It's the continuing blindness to this round thing we all live on, that is the big issue. Ok, let's suppose we get biodiesel, and everyone can keep driving. Make the logical next step, and you'll see that we won't be here very long. The sun is most likely the answer. That an a realistic number of people. Of course all of this assumes that there should be a happy, healthy group of people living on earth. Maybe that's not the correct theory. Maybe the answer is to have as many kids as possible, disregard mother earth, and be part of one mind that is as big as can be. I really don't know. But one looks a lot nicer and feels a lot better than what has been happening over the last fourty or so years.

[wrang_wrang]

21. Biodiesel is a poor candidate

Biodiesel is more expensive to produce than petroleum diesel and global production of vegetable oil and animal fat cannot meet gasoline demand. Biodiesel requires a vast amount of farmland that could be used to feed starving PEOPLE instead of your TRUCK. Fertilizer, pesticide pollution from mass production of vegetable oil will cause their own environmental problems.

The only true solution to the coming energy crunch lies in reducing consumption, reducing demand, reducing wasteful affluent greedy lifetsyles - not in replacing one polluting technology with another.

[Radius]

23. Read Up

Biodiesel is created from waste product. Do you live on a farm? I did. Farm land has to be cycled to balance nitrogen in the soil. Castor beans are planted and plowed under. Castor beans are trash and require no attention other than water, rain takes care of a lot of this. You have to grow something like castor to grow FOOD to feed your starving masses. You don't get it, we already produce tons of oil and dump them. All you have to do is recycle and burn it.

I use my TRUCK (is it EVIL?) for my side JOB. You can't tow a tractor with a prius. The entire commercial fleet runs on diesel, gasoline is a different commodity. Diesel is more efficent and biodiesel puts money in american hands.

You've got a pie in the sky answer. Mine works in the real world.

[Gregorian]

25. You're not hearing me....It's the combustion "stupid".

THE PROBLEM IS combustion. Combustion. Combustion. The sooner people get this, the sooner we will begin to address the problem.

You are right- you can't plow a field with a Prius. And we can't do travel, or trucking, or manufacturing. It's a big problem. And the only way to continue our present consumption is through combustion.

That's not entirely true. I'm a mechanical engineer, and a group of us are just starting a fuel cell company. This last week we were told that our idea is patentable. So the ball is beginning to roll. But the technology has a long ways to go before solar can be used to run things. And even then, the bottom line is that we cannot continue with this lifestyle.

And trust me, I'm not coming down on you. I have four motorcycles, two sports cars, two trucks, a backhoe, a crane....

History will show that the last two hundred years was an anomoly. And with the size of the population, one billion of which is children, things are going to start looking very different, soon.

[Radius]

26. Fuel Cells

are great. I hope your technology goes well. It is possible to combust biodiesel in a clean fashion and does make an immediate impact. Most commercial equipment has a long service life. Recycling and growing bio diesel components can make a short term difference. I know farmers who run farm equipment that is 60 years old. As an intermediary technology it has the most potential to make a quick entrance. It is already growing a user base.

I would buy a fuel cell vehicle if possible for my daily driver. I use my bike for a driver in the summer, 50 miles a gallon.

[Gregorian]

38. That's a good question.

To be honest, I'm pretty stupid when it comes to fuel cells. I've been handed a bunch of literature to read, but it's like nuclear physics. Hahaha. But I believe that hydrocarbon type of chemicals can be used in fuel cells. I think it takes a reformer. But the neat thing about the cells is that they are a solid state energy conversion device. And really, the world isn't black and white. We will have an array of ways to power our world. But I am a firm believer that no matter what it is, moderation is critical. But that goes far beyond energy conversion.
It's a shame, because I used to love cars and motorcycles. Now I'm hardly able to enjoy them.
One thing is for certain- we live in interesting times.
And thanks. I'm really hoping that we can make a difference in the world. We're developing a fuel cell powered water heater. Maybe the world will be a better place for it.

[Radius]

39. Honda

Has a working car that runs on a hydrogen fuel cell. The hybrids get around the same real mileage as a vw bug diesel. Half of Europe's cars run on diesel. They are much cleaner than they were a few years ago.

The problem is not that hydrogen is volatile, so in gasoline. It takes lots of energy to make hydrogen. Making the energy to make hydrogen would take either a large growth in the use of fossil fuel or the wide adoption of nuclear energy.

Both have their problems. Motorcycles are much more efficient than cars, but I'm sure you know the trade off.

[Gregorian]

49. Wow, you know your stuff.

Yes, and when I heard Bush pushing hydrogen, I was appauled, but not surprised. I have literature on how a hydrogen economy would be worse by a large factor.
Photovoltaics are making huge progress. That's the next step of our company, assuming we really make as much progress as we hope. My deepest thoughts are regarding population. That, and lowering our consumption, are the two major factors.
I mean this goes far beyond energy. I would wager that many of the cases of high blood pressure, and coronary artery disease would be avoided if we were less dependant on external energy to do our work for us. I just got back from a bike ride that was 20 miles, and 2200 feet of climbing. It's quite amazing what we can do with just our own energy. If we are healthy.
This is a subject I was raised with. Being a careful user of energy, living in America has been a disgusting experience. People are so ignorant. And of all things, it has gotten worse.
By the way, I've got a Honda 110 that gets about 100 miles per gallon. We can still have a great life using petroleum, and not cause major damage. It's just a different way of looking at life. And that is where a good leader would be a benefit to the country. This miserable failure has done absolutely everything wrong. Well, I better shut up and go. :)

[Ohio rules]

50. Iceland's geothermal research

""It takes lots of energy to make hydrogen. Making the energy to make hydrogen would take either a large growth in the use of fossil fuel or the wide adoption of nuclear energy.""

Iceland hopes to exploit geothermal energy and export hydrogen. First to Europe then maybe expand west.
They have hybrid gas stations but as of yet,few fleet vehicles for the hydrogen.

[wuushew]

41. Hemp could fuel us and allow us to eat

According to the FCDA Report, "By pyrolysis conversion, biomass delivers 5,000 - 8,000 BTU's per pound . It is calculated that only 6 per cent of the agricultural land area of the contiguous United States would now produce more than sufficient Cannabis Biomass to supply all current demand for gasoline, diesel and oil for that energy-voracious country.

"From only 2 crops (8 months, temperate climate) each acre will produce not less than 20 tons of Cannabis Biomass, which yield 2,000 gallons of methanol."

http://www.ccguide.org.uk/cbee.html

http://www.hempcar.org/indexOLD.html




This second link is a good article refuting the starvation myth, much of our grain crop is not used for feeding the third world but instead sold to wealthy cattle farmers for feed products. In any case do you really want cheap American agricultural products putting local farmers out of business as has been the trend of neo-liberal trade policies?


http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel_food.html

[fedsron2us]

44. Yep. Oil demand is about to exceed supply

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6152218

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2004/09/05/BUGKB8JI2G1.DTL

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0905oilfuture05.html

In a hundred years time, if anyone is still alive, they will wonder at how capitalism in its last days rushed to put all its production capacity in countries where the labor was cheap but energy use was inefficient. Amazingly, China is almost as profligate as the USA when it comes to frittering away the worlds dwindling fossil fuel reserves. Their cars petrol consumption is on average 10 to 20 percent higher than in the West and their electrical grid is so flaky that many factories have to burn precious diesel in backup generators to keep production going during brownouts. If things keep going at this rate it will not be long before the lights start going off all round the world.

[GreenArrow]

22. Fools

.

[highnooner]

42. It is reasons like that this

That Kerry needs to step up to the plate with a vision for the future for Energy. The best way that he can attack Bush on the Iraq War is to state that the energy reliance on a bunch of ME Fundies is the prescription for an unwinnable war and long-term health of the US economy. Also, he should play up the Peak Oil aspect. By sponsoring the creation and development of emerging energy alternatives such as solar, wind fuel cells, etc. on the level of the Space Race, the US can emerge as the world leader for energy at the very time that OIL will be far more expensive, more manipulative and more dangerous as an economic tool.

This very argument would hurt the Bush Administration at where it is weakest -- its Iraq/Terrorist and Energy policies. I would love to see Edwards go after Cheney on this very point in the debate.

[ozone_man]

48. You're so right.

I heard something to the effect that Kerry was looking toward Artificial Intelligence as the next big thing that would lift the economy and provide jobs to replace those being exported.

A much bigger and bolder vision would address the future energy issue, including transportation, how we will replace oil before it runs out, and impacts on the environment. The security aspects of alternative energy would be a way to combat the Bush neo-con PNAC. I might wonder if Kerry is serving the same masters as Bush, or if not, whether he is capable of having such a bold vision.

[vaguard]

43. Alternative Fuels

Public Mass Transit
Clean-burning Priuses

[leesa]

47. See. Ford and GMC don't need to sell cars here. They can close all their

plants here and do quite well.