rasmussenreports: Dead Even 47.3 to 47.3 - but Bush may bump up tomorrow?

[papau]

Remember that site reported that Sat was an esp. good day for Kerry - and Sat results drop out of the 3 day total for tomorrows number - so it may - or may not look like a Bush lead tomorrow

but I still enjoy today's results!

:-)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry

Updated Daily by Noon Eastern Election 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush 47.3%
Kerry 47.3%
Other 2.4%
NTuesday September 07, 2004--The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 47% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 47%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

Our latest Electoral College projection shows Bush lead 213-175. Neither man can count on the 270 Electoral Votes needed for victory (150 Electoral Votes remain in the Toss-Up category. Polls released yesterday for New Jersey and Michigan show both states getting a bit closer. It's tied in Minnesota while Kerry holds an eight-point lead in California.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of American voters believe that the U.S. is safer today than it was before the 9/11 terrorist attacks. That's up from 36% in June. Over the weekend, we provided a brief analysis of the Bush Bounce in the polls.

Today, at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, we will update the Favorability ratings for Bush and Kerry. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, we will provide our latest data for the state of Missouri.

Updated Daily by Noon Eastern Election 2004

Date Bush Kerry
Today 47.3 47.3
Sept 6 47.6 46.5
Sept 5 47.6 46.4
Sept 4 49.1 44.7
Sept 3 49 45

[David Dunham]

1. No bump up. The problems in Iraq will keep Bush's numbers low.

[papau]

2. I hope you are correct!

:-)

[David Dunham]

3. The problems in Iraq are the driving force in this election.

The problems hurt Bush.

[shawcomm]

7. Yep.

Even if there's a delayed bump, it will quickly drop back down since we'll probably hit the 1000th death today or tomorrow.

[Pirate Smile]

4. He threw out the Saturday numbers as being outlier numbers so there

shouldn't be a bump up, he already dumped them.

[Frodo]

8. No he didn't.

He specifically said he was leaving them in.

They will roll off the "unpaid" average tomorrow but impact the "subscription 7-day average" for a few more days.

[Pirate Smile]

11. You are right. I just went and re-read the report from yesterday.

I don't know why I thought it said yesterday he dropped them.

[cthrumatrix]

5. but the media still reports 11% bump

[benburch]

6. The media report what they wish for.

We'll show them reality in November.

[shockingelk]

12. link?

Bush had an 11% advantage over Kerry in the TIME poll - he didn't get an 11% bump, which is the difference between Bush's new and last numbers. I was wondering if it would be reported as a "bump"

[LibDemAlways]

15. You got that right. Whores on CBS

"News" radio in LA discussing whether today's stock market bump is a reaction to "Kerry's 11 point lead." Only polls they report are the bogus ones.

[lancdem]

9. It might bump up a point or two

but it won't be 4 percent. Saturday will no longer be in the mix but Friday isn't either, and that was a good day for Bush.

[Demeter]

10. Reality Has A Way of Doing That

When the job, unemployment, poverty, uninsured and Medicare Increase statistics came out, Reality called Bush bad news. So what if gas might drop a couple of pennies.

Just wait until the casualty number hits 1000. then you're going to see some more Reality.

[KansDem]

13. But really...isn't 47.3% piss-poor for a sitting, wartime President?

Especially the week after the convention?

[number6]

14. Time and Newsweek poles a hoax , as far as I'm concerned..

USA Today too ....

[Dem2theMax]

16. CNN.com actually took down the 11 point lead claim.

Just love the word 'apparently' - like we're not really supposed to believe it. hahaha. Oh, story is in politics section. Not out on front page where it's easily seen. duh. ;) As for rasmussen, even if it goes up a wee bit, todays news is going to make it go down. NO good news anywhere for * today.


Poll: Bush apparently gets modest bounce

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Last week's GOP convention in New York City appears to have given President Bush a modest bounce and a small lead among likely voters, according to a poll released Monday.

The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll of 1,018 adult Americans, including 778 likely voters and 926 registered voters, was conducted by telephone September 3-5.

Bush's convention bounce appeared to be 2 percentage points.

more:

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/06/presidential.poll/index.html

[Seabiscuit]

17. Bump UP?

The Chimp can bump out and then bump off.

[sampsonblk]

18. I Wonder if that stupid "love" quote will make any difference

I sure hope so

[mom cat]

19. Thanks for the post. I expect the trend to continue due to Kerry's

new fervor and due to the fact that the 1000th US soldier has died.

[foo_bar]

20. it's the smallest sample size in any recent poll

5 percent margin of error. see: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html#ar