HURRICANE IVAN UPDATES FOR TUESDAY, 9/14/04

[GOPAgainstGW]

HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE 7:00AM 9/14/04-MAJOR NHC CHANGE!

Hurricane Ivan Update - 7:00AM EDT TUES SEP 14 2004
115 Miles NorthWest of the Western Tip of Cuba and
450 MILES SOUTH_SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
POSITION...23.1N...86.1W
MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH.

CATEGORY: 4 (D)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 925MB(I)..27.31(I) INCHES.
(3rd Strongest Hurricane in U.S History)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 155 MPH(D)
GUSTS TO: 195 MPH(D)
* * SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN THE GULF, SUSTAINED WINDS: 155 TO 145 MPH MAX/GUSTS: 195 TO 185 MPH, HOWEVER IVAN SHOULD STILL REMAIN A MAJOR CAT 4 HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE UNITED STATES COAST.

KEYNOTES: (D)ecreased/(I)ncreased/(S)Same since last report
A MAJOR CHANGE IN ASSUMPTIONS HAS OCCURRED BY NHC. IVAN IS NOW NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OR CURVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TO THE DEGREE AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. IVAN HAS WEAKENED IN INTENSITY HOWEVER FROM LAST REPORT. BASED ON LASTED DATA NHC STATES SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IVAN MOVES FARTHER NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ENCOUNTERS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR......* * HOWEVER...IVAN SHOULD STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE UNITED STATES COAST.* *

[GOPAgainstGW]

1. Path Projection Map-1

[Junkdrawer]

13. OMG: And it takes 72 hours to evacuate New Orleans...

This is bad...real bad...

[trumad]

2. My favorite update

[Jacobin]

9. LOL

I'm slow this morning. It took me about 30 seconds to figure out what the 'path' had drawn.

:hi:

[freetobegay]

3. I don't wish anyone any harm with this hurricane

But I do want to say in S.W. Florida, we are happy to see it going in another direction.

[GOPAgainstGW]

4. Path Projection Map - 2

[walford]

48. Not again...

I was in the Panama Canal Zone from '68-70, so I missed Camille. Funny, the whole time I was there, there were no major weather events. I think that it's safer there most of the time.

[unfrigginreal]

5. The pressure is rising rapidy, a very good sign

The latest recon shows 930MB

[Zynx]

10. The NHC shows an official 925mb. Keep that in perspective.

This is a Andrew the size of Frances. Just because it won't be a Mitch doesn't mean that it won't inflict horrible damage.

And its still more than enough to kill New Orleans if it hits.

[unfrigginreal]

14. Latest recon shows 931MB

I'm not trying to make light of it, just pointing out that rising pressure is a good sign. That doesn't mean that it won't restrengthen, especially overnight. Another good sign is what appears to be weakening of the left side of the hurricane...again it could be temporary.

[skip fox]

32. Wow. Where did you get this???

n/t

[Renew Deal]

16. Wow

It was 910 last night.

[GOPAgainstGW]

6. Strongest U.S. Hurricanes

[bamademo]

7. Stay away from Mobile

I'm in North Alabama but I love the Gulf Coast especially Dauphin Island which is a barrier island 30 miles off the coast of Mobile. It will devastate the oyster and shrimp business down there. I'm afraid there won't even be an island left. :-( :-(

[salvorhardin]

8. That's what I'm afraid of

I want to rent a house on Dauphin Island this winter. I called down there yesterday to the realty office and they were busy evacuating.

[artboy]

11. Its pure

madness..I/we live in Dothan, AL...approx. 80 miles NE of Panama City...hell there even evacuating areas around here, (Hartford, Geneva)......understandably, we will have rain..and possible gusty winds...but the way folks are acting, you'd think it was headed to us. Lowe's and Home Depot has limited plywood to 20 sheet per customer..until supplies run out..most stores are no longer stocking water...batteries...plastic jugs/containers (like the kind ya take camping)...I tell ya its crazy. Schools are closed or closing by noon...people are really freaking out around here.

I should be used to it...I've lived here 15 years..and in this general region for 20+ years...

funny thing is...you should see how folks act down here if it snows............or a slight prediction of snow.......HO-LEE-SHIT....

[ewagner]

15. Welcome to DU

btw: Been through Dothan a lot......neat place.

Good luck with the winds and rain. Stay safe.

[lazarus]

17. Welcome to DU!

I just moved from Enterprise a couple of years ago. Moved out here to sunny San Diego.

I imagine they're evacuating Elba for sure. And my mom (over in Andalusia) says Brewton is ready to evac as well.

[leetrisck]

26. Used to live in Enterprise - still have lots

of friends there. Some family members left Panama City Beach early this morning

[alilenas]

59. People leaving Andalusia.

Just talked to my uncle. He says they rode out Opal, but have decided not to try to do it with Ivan. They've headed for Georgia.

[QC]

30. In Panama City here...

Lots of people planning to go to Dothan, as usual. They tell me that the 90 mile drive to Dothan can take six hours or more during an evacuation. I'm staying put for now and watching. If the storm continues on its present path, we'll still get hit pretty hard here, but it's probably safer to stay here in the house than to be trapped out on the highway when the storm comes through.

[mom cat]

24. Watch out for New Orleans too. In every forcast, the projected landfall

moves west!

[Junkdrawer]

27. Joe Bastardi just said that is his worse case scenario...

The problem is a funnel shaped Mobile Bay...

Map

[abbadon]

34. More like 5 miles, but that's what it's for ...

Just across the Mississippi Sound from Mon Louis Island, and the best oyster reefs in the US - Cedar Reef

Barrier islands (including the Ft Morgan peninsula) protect the much more delicate (and ecologically valuable) wetlands from excessive force of sea, surge, etc., and are actually quite resilient when left alone

When I worked at the Sea Lab, the mantra was, "erosion is only a problem if you build houses there" - by their nature, barrier islands move, grow and shrink - DI has been moving east-to-west for years, the expansion of the Channel has only accelerated the process, simultaneous with the expansion (explosion!) of the part-time and tourist population - the Islanders have pretty much been there since the late 1600's, and have known better than to build expensively (especially before Fed-subsidized Flood Insurance)

The shrimp & fishing industries are more based up in Bayou La Batre, etc., and they have access to very good weather data, so they'll possibly be able to beat it...

abbadon (3 sides of family from S. Alabama since before there was a U.S.A.)

[theHandpuppet]

12. Everyone should fuel up today

News this morning reported that oil prices have already risen a dollar a barrel on the speculation there may be damage to offshore oil rigs in the Gulf. So folks in the path of Ivan shouldn't be the only ones gassing up today.

[artboy]

18. Hi all

Thanks for the welcome...Ive been lurking for sometime prior to joinng...I really enjoy this site!..As far as evacuating, well they continue to break in on the radio with further updates..closings..and such....I live smack dab in the middle of the Garden district here in Dothan, I have pine trees in my yard that appear to be hundreds of years old..there huge....my biggest fear is one will fall on the power lines and cable lines and knock me off line..heheheh

seriously....it has really gotten crazy since this time yesterday...People here at the office are thinking of evacuating...:wtf: is up with folks.....Gov. Riley has declared a state of Emergency for Alabama.......

I'm staying put...buy me a 5th of JD and watch the show.:beer:

[yardwork]

60. I hope you will be ok, artboy...I know it seems like a long way off

but I live well inland in North Carolina, and Fran smacked us good some years ago. Nobody had any power for days, the water wasn't safe to drink, and lots of houses had damage from falling trees. We had had a lot of rain previous to the storm, and Fran's winds, even hundreds of miles inland, knocked trees right out of the ground. The worst hit were large hardwood trees - oaks, maples, hickories. The roots pulled right out of the ground. Smaller hardwoods, pines, and cedars snapped in half or split right down the middle. The skinny pines did the best - they bent in the wind.

I urge everyone to stock up on bottled water, food that can be prepared without heat, batteries, and anything else you need including disposable diapers, prescription drugs, gasoline for your car, etc. Put away all lawn furniture, outdoor potted plants, and anything else you'd prefer not to smash through your windows at 65 miles an hour. Get lots of comfort food - you may need it.

There are positives to hurricanes. They clean pollution out of the inland waterways. The storm may devastate this year's oysters and shrimp, but it will create a better habitat for future yields. Even when trees fall over and leave gaps, smaller trees and wildflowers get a chance at some sun. You will meet neighbors you didn't know. There are tales of courage and random acts of kindness. It's an adventure.

[hatrack]

22. It's not just the rigs - it's potential interference with the LOOP

LOOP - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port - it's (crudely speaking) a big floating nozzle located just off the mouth(s) of the Mississippi, and a pipeline that pumps the oil directly to the onshore storage facilities.

Even a couple of days disruption would likely cause a small spike in prices; serious damage to the facility would have far larger impacts.

[gratuitous]

19. West Coast ignoramus here

I'm looking at the path Ivan has taken so far, and note that the projected path represents a rather severe (to my untrained eye) northward turn after squeaking through the strait between the Yucatan and Cuba.

Could someone with more knowledge than me (okay, I guess that means anyone) help me understand why the hurricane would take a right turn? Is it affected by ocean currents? Prevailing winds? To me, it looks like it should continue heading in a more generally westerly pattern, making landfall somewhere west of New Orleans.

[cmf]

20. not positive, but

The last I heard is that there is a cold front that is supposed to be dropping down from the NW. But I don't know, they've been predicting it was going to turn for a while. It keeps heading NW. That's why people are getting out of NOLA as fast as they can. They know not to trust the models saying that it's going to turn.

[TahitiNut]

23. It's about prevailing winds at different latitudes.

Along the equator, the prevailing winds are from the east. That's why tropical (i.e. south of the Tropic of Cancer) weather systems travel east-to-west. North of the tropics (and south of the Tropic of Capricorn), the prevailing winds are from west to east.

Think of it this way: the earth rotates west-to-east. (That's why the sun "rises" in the east and sets in the west. The earth is covered in a 'sea' of atmosphere. The primary 'reactive' (i.e. inertia) relative motion of the atmosphere around the equator is, then, contrary to the rotation of the earth (i.e. east to west). However the atmosphere, being a fluid, 'fills in' where it leaves (i.e. low pressure areas) and the fluid motion of the atmosphere balances the east-to-west movement of air with a west-to-east motion outside those tropical flows.

So, a hurricane is a massive weather system which moves in accordance with the major global atmospheric movements. As it progresses northwards, it's direction shifts from east-to-west to west-to-east.

Does that help form a mental picture? (It's not really technically accurate since the more important cause of air movement is due to solar radiation and rising/falling air, but this requires a more 4-dimensional conceptualization.)



Trivia: That's why latitudes right above the tropics, called the "Horse Latitudes" (where mariners once threw livestock overboard to lighten the ship) have been for centuries known to be areas of low winds. In the days of sail, this was very important.

[gratuitous]

29. That does explain it

I had to hunt around for where the Tropic of Cancer is exactly, but as the hurricane's path crosses that, I can see why they're predicting a right turn. Makes it much clearer, thanks for the explanation.

[Boomer]

38. A really simple explanation

Accuweather has a great visual for this issue:

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/headlines.asp?iws=0

Shows the "path of least resistance" that Ivan in taking.

[unfrigginreal]

21. 11AM Update: Ivan weakens some

Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on September 14, 2004

...Ivan weakens...but remains an extremely dangerous hurricane in
the southern Gulf of Mexico...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Pinar del Rio...Havana...City of Havana...and the Isle of Youth.

At 10 am CDT...1500z...the Mexican government has downgraded the
Hurricane Warning from Tulum to progreso on the Yucatan Peninsula
to a Tropical Storm Warning.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile Bridge westward...including the Dry Tortugas.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast from Morgan City Louisiana eastward to St. Marks Florida...
including greater New Orleans Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning will
likely be required for a portion of the watch area this afternoon.

At 10 am CDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 23.4 north...longitude 86.2 west or about 435 miles...
south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph...and this
motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased and are now near 140
mph...with higher gusts. However...Ivan remains an extremely
dangerous category four hurricane. Fluctuations in intensity are
common in major hurricanes and are expected over the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 100 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 260 miles.

The minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force Reserve unit
reconnaissance aircraft was 932 mb...27.52 inches.

Rains in Cuba will be diminishing today.
Repeating the 10 am CDT position...23.4 N... 86.2 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 932 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1 PM CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 4 PM CDT.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.public.html

[Junkdrawer]

25. From The Times-Picayune: Superdome for medical use only!!

......
Officials with the New Orleans Health Department were preparing a "special needs" medical shelter at the Superdome for people with severe health conditions who are not hospitalized and cannot be evacuated long distances. That shelter will not be open to the general public.

At local hospitals, administrators spent Monday preparing for the worst: reviewing contingency plans; ensuring that they had enough food, water and medical supplies; and drawing up lists of people who would be expected to come to work no matter what.

State Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness officials talked to Mississippi officials about the potential of a "contraflow" evacuation, where vehicles could use both the north- and southbound lanes of Interstate 59 to move north, Lt. Col. Pete Schneider said. Contraflow also can be used to move vehicles more quickly on I-10 west of the airport and in eastern New Orleans.

Thousands of Louisiana National Guard troops have been put on standby in case Ivan hits, Schneider said. Although almost half of the state Guard troops have been mobilized to support operations in Iraq, about 7,000 troops still are available.

Highway officials were struggling overnight with opening a second lane on I-55 north, where construction has limited traffic to one lane from the high-rise to Louisiana 22 at Ponchatoula. Lt. Richard Cooke of State Police Troop L said all northbound lanes should be open today by 6 a.m. I-55 south will be closed.
......

http://www.nola.com/news/t-p/frontpage/index.ssf?/base/news-2/1095141436190020.xml

[impe]

46. What is New Orleans

doing with its homeless population who can't just jump in the car and leave. I spoke with someone down there today
who is going to bunker in, I'm sure the hurricane parties are few and most are taking this storm seriously as they should!
I am very afraid for the grand dame of cities.

[Junkdrawer]

47. I think the plan now is "Pray it doesn't hit"...

Because, if it does, Plan B seems to be: "Every man, woman and child for themselves"...

Conservatively compassionate, huh?

[Zynx]

55. The City Must Empty - Mass Evacuation at N.O.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=2&u=/ap/20040914/ap_on_re_us/hurricane_ivan_15

[Ripley]

28. Trying. Not. To. Panic.

Although inland in Bama, I'm right on a few of those tracking lines. And my neighbor's trees are looming. OOOOmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

[Palacsinta]

31. Students from Tulane U. are being evacuated

..........according to my sister. My nephew is a freshman there. He's flying out to stay with friends of the family in Texas.

[Endangered Specie]

35. Thats what all of New Orleans should do...

College = intelligent people = evacuating

[tedoll78]

36. I just got a call from my parents there.

They've just opened all lanes on I-10 to go west. Even the lanes usually used for going east. One can no longer use I-10 East to get into the city. Traffic is gridlocked right now, from what Mom says. The city is on TV pretty often, urging people to flee for their lives. Schools are all closing, businesses are closing, people are being sent home early from work, building and survival supplies are on short hand. It sounds like utter pandemonium.

They can't find a hotel room east of San Antonio. I've told them to go northwest. Maybe they'll get lucky in Shreveport or Monroe, or even as far as Little Rock.

My little sister will be forced to stay behind. She's a new RN at Oschner Hospital (on Jefferson Highway). They've already reserved her a room in the hotel in the hospital with three other nurses, and it's on a very high floor. That, and Jefferson Highway is one of the highest points in New Orleans and Jefferson Parishes.. right next to the Mississippi River levee. She's in one of the toughest buildings in the area, but I'm still worried sick.

Mom's livid at the Weather Channel right now; they're gung-ho about it still going to Florida, despite the obvious change in strike probability. I imagine that thousands in New Orleans are saying, "Well.. it's going to Florida. We can stay here safely." I hope that disaster isn't impending.

Pray, meditate, and if you have loved ones living there, urge them to get out. Ivan might not turn soon enough.

[Endangered Specie]

37. I-10 is the 7 mile bridge across ponchatrain(sp) right?

edit: I wonder if that thing will still be there in 72 hours.

[tedoll78]

39. Yep.

It's only made to withstand Category 3 hurricanes. I wonder that also. My sister could end-up trapped in the city in that hotel, in a sick kind of "lifeboat" scenario. It's scaring the bejeesus outta me.

[Endangered Specie]

40. Isnt there another way out of New Orleans?

Like the Ponch. Causeway (The 24mile bridge) ... Wonder if they built that one to sustain a hurricane like this one.

[tedoll78]

41. There are really only 3 ways out.

The first way is I-10 west, which eventually gives birth to I-55 north, which goes alllll the way up north.

The second way is via the Causeway bridge. But they order it shut-down when the gusts get up to 50mph. Once the storm is close enough for this to happen, this route is shut-down.

The third way is via I-10 east, which will get you all the way to Jacksonville, FL.

All three routes involve travelling some distance over long bridges. This is a horrible sticking point for those evacuating..

[Career Prole]

33. This is good news for my daughter and grandkids in

Pensacola, isn't it? They don't even have a car to evacuate in right now... :scared:

[Dover]

42. Whatever happened to the system that was developing off the N.C. coast?

Here's what one DUer posted a couple of days ago:

Satellite video here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-ir2-loop.html
I have been told this newly forming storm will be dragged by ‘Ivan’. Its course will not be known for several hours. It has a preliminary course towards North Carolina, but a cone of impact can range from North Florida to Massachusetts. Ivan is having a major effect both in its early formation and in its ultimate destination. Folks, this could get nasty very quickly. Stay tuned for further advisement and news updates."

http://www.earthchangestv.com
http://www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/forum.cgi?read=55448

[Ripley]

43. Would that be Jeanne?

Here's a link: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x826240

[lovuian]

44. Just to let ya know all the Hotels inHouston are Booked

Lots of friends are leaving today from New Orleans

[frustrated_lefty]

45. Just a thanks

I'm in New Orleans, have lived here a while. Word is, Jackson, MS, Tuscaloosa, AL and Birmingham, AL are booked up. A LOT of people are looking west and count on space to reside in Houston. San Antonio may be more realistic, but that's a hard drive.

[hatrack]

49. 9/14 16:00 CDT Warning Out Grand Isle To Apalachicola - Ivan 370 SSE NOLA

EDIT

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST OR ABOUT 370 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN
REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST
CATEGORY THREE.

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO ABOUT 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER. WATER LEVELS ARE
ALREADY RUNNING UP TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST...AND WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/142025.shtml?

[unfrigginreal]

50. 5PM - Ivan pressure dropping - eyewall better defined

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 14, 2004

this morning's weakening trend has ceased and the outer eyewall of
Ivan is becoming better defined. A NOAA research aircraft reported
a central pressure of 929 mb along with surface winds of 115-120 kt
from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer. The initial
intensity will be held at 120 kt. Satellite imagery shows that
cirrus is beginning to expand in the northwest quadrant. Ivan is
still expected to pass over a warm Gulf eddy in about 12 to 24
hours...which could help Ivan to regain a little strength before
encountering slightly cooler waters and increasing shear just
before landfall. Although the precise landfall intensity cannot be
confidently forecast...Ivan is expected to be a major hurricane at
landfall.

The initial motion is 335/8...slightly to the right of the previous
motion...and the short term motion is almost northward. Ivan is
moving around the periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.
There has been no significant change made to the official
forecast...which is in the middle of a tightly clustered grouping
of the GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...and UKMET models. The ECMWF remains an
outlier with a track about 100 miles west of the consensus.

There is considerable spread in the model forecasts after
landfall...and it is possible that the remnants of Ivan will move
very slowly or stall near or over the Appalachians in 4 or 5
days...which would produce a very serious flooding event.

[Name removed]

51. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

52. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[SoCalDem]

53. The wobble takes it right into the Mississippi Delta

:(

Get to high ground if you are near there :scared:

[unfrigginreal]

54. Infrared Satellite View of the Gulf of Mexico

[LizW]

56. Shelters in south Alabama are being closed and moved

further north. People are beginning to panic. Local news just described first responders as "overwhelmed." I-65 is heavily congested in the southern part of the state.

They just showed an aerial view of a WalMart in the Birmingham area. The parking lot was packed with cars of people buying supplies. Weather man is now saying that this will be a major event as far up as north Alabama. Predicts loss of power and many trees down.

Alabama Power is predicting a storm of "historic proportions."

Crap. :scared:

[Ripley]

58. Hey neighbor!

I can't believe how nonchalant they were at the grocery store today in west Alabama. I got water on sale and commented it was good timing. The clerk said why? THE HURRICANE IS COMING YOU IDIOT!

Stay safe...I'm going to be scared shitless tomorrow night.

[LizW]

67. People are beginning to get serious here

I just got back from the store and there was no bottled water. The manager said the supplier had called and said the truck wasn't coming. He said it would be going further south where it was needed more.

I dread this. And it it is so bad for us, I hate to think about what the folks further south will go through. :(

[Ripley]

72. I really really really dread this...

I just heard James Spann say we could have 70mph sustained winds! My neighbor is a jerk who had half of a multi-trunked 40 ft hackberry tree fall on our porch Memorial Day due to high winds. He never had the other rotted half removed and I'm afraid with these winds it's gonna hit us again.

Do you have a generator? I never wanted to pay the money for one, but I think they might be a wise investment.

[LizW]

76. Don't have a generator

The power outage won't be pleasant, but I can deal with it. The worst thing will be no computer and no contact with the outside world.

What scares me most is the thought of having one of the big trees come down on the house. We cut all the pines on our lot several years ago (they were gigantic), but we're still surrounded by huge oaks and hickories.

When Opal came through in '95 we lost one tree and fortunately it fell away from the house. I sat up all night watching the sky being lit up by the flashes of blowing transformers all over the neighborhood.

I'm really worried about all my favorite places in Gulf Shores/Orange Beach. If the Sea 'n Suds blows away, I will be so sad. :(

Stay safe, Ripley. BTW, has anyone heard from trof and syrinx? I think they both live down near the coast.

[Syrinx]

82. hi Liz!

Thanks for thinking of me. :hug:

Actually I live in Tuscaloosa. Sometimes I wish I lived closer to the coast, but not this week. It's going to be bad enough here. I think you're in Tuscaloosa too, right?

Keep safe!

[LizW]

85. Hey, syrinx

I'm actually in Birmingham (Hoover), just up the Interstate from you. It's not going to be pretty, I'm afraid.

You keep safe, too! :hi:

[GOPAgainstGW]

57. * * NOTICE - ANYONE WISHING TO COME TO HOUSTON & NEEDS HELP- PM ME! * *

AND WE WILL MAKE SURE YOU GET FIXED UP HERE IN HOUSTON. - M.B


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.....Official Press Releases on SBVT: http://blog.johnkerry.com/rapidresponse

[yardwork]

62. GOPAgainstGW - You are such a kind person!

I've enjoyed your posts and links.

[WillyT]

61. CRAP !!! - Here Comes Jeanne !!!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1104W+GIF/142103W.gif

When does Hurricane season end???

:shrug:

Man this is just way unfair.

:scared:

[mreh]

74. Hurricane season ends November 1 eom

I'm in Biloxi - got the windows boarded up and planning on heading inland. Looks like Ivan may hit MS/AL border.

[WillyT]

77. God Bless, And Good Luck !!!

Stay safe!!!

:loveya:

[mreh]

78. Thanks, I appreciate the good wishes and the blessing!

Hopefully I can still access on line for part of the storm. I would miss DU.

[GOPAgainstGW]

63. 5:00/6:00 PM - 9/14/04: MAJOR UPDATE HURRICANE IVAN

Hurricane Ivan Update - 5:00PM EDT TUES SEP 14 2004
370 Miles South-Southeastof the Mouth of the Missippi River
POSITION: 24.2N..86.6W
MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH.
***Same Directional Motion is expected to continue the next 24 hours

HURRICANE CATEGORY:4

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 929MB(I)..27.43(I) INCHES.
(5th most Intense Hurricane in U.S History)

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 140 MPH(S)
GUSTS TO: 160 MPH(S)
***THIS MORNING'S WEAKENING TREND HAS CEASED AND THE OUTER EYEWALL OF
***IVAN IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WIND SPEED
***PROJECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.


KEYNOTES: (D)ecreased/(I)ncreased/(S)Same since last report

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO ABOUT 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.

IVAN IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS OVER A WARM GULF EDDY IN ABOUT 12 TO 24
HOURS...WHICH COULD HELP IVAN TO REGAIN A LITTLE STRENGTH BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR JUST
BEFORE LANDFALL.

---------

AT 4 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF
APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

COMMENTS: I hope the NHC knows what they are doing in their projections, because so far they have been horrible! Hurricane Ivan has a very well formed, consistent, and dangerous eyewall, now for days...its slow movement (<10 MPH) allows the eyewall to continually rebuild.....and it's tightly re-building the last several hours. I sincerely hope the pressure does not drop again in the next 6 hours.

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

64. Its looking like landfall betw. Mobile and Pascagoula?

From the latest NOAA map.

Going right over Mobile.

Has Mobile ever had a direct hit before?

[GOPAgainstGW]

65. Ivan Projection Maps

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

68. The Alabama Slamma...

...at least thats the consensus of those tracks..most of them at least.

[GOPAgainstGW]

66. Projection Parameter Fan/DeepWater Map

[GOPAgainstGW]

69. Hurricane Ivan Current Photo - 1

[GOPAgainstGW]

70. Hurricane Ivan Current Photo - 2

[GOPAgainstGW]

71. Hurricane Ivan Current Photo - 3

[GOPAgainstGW]

73. Hurricane Ivan Current Photo - 4

[Toucano]

75. Thanks for the fantastic pics. n/t

[GOPAgainstGW]

79. Hurricane Ivan Current Photo - 5

[GOPAgainstGW]

80. Hurricane Ivan Current Photo - 6

[yardwork]

81. That eye is amazing

The funnel is so well-defined.

Thank you for linking these amazing photos.

[GOPAgainstGW]

83. Anytime - Yelp very powerful and Ivan is not backing down.

[GOPAgainstGW]

84. NEW THREAD STARTED FOR IVAN WED 9/15/004 DATA & PHOTOS