Breaking - Bush-Kerry Race Tied As RNC Bounce Fades, New IBD Survey Shows

[ruggerson]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/040913/feature_1.html

Bush 47
Kerry 47


It's a tie folks!

[diamond14]

1. the race is ON....get to work DUers, roll up your sleeves for 50 days....

WE THE PEOPLE are taking back OUR country....

POWER TO THE PEOPLE !!...WE can do it....

and we'll be dancing in the streets....and singing and cheering all the way up Pennsylvania Avenue....vote for PEACE....save America!!!


http://www.JohnKerry.com

[alittlelark]

2. Why is this in the business section?

n IBD/TIPP's first poll of likely voters, conducted Sept. 7-12, both men garnered 47% in a two-man race and 46% in a three-way race. In the latter scenario, independent Ralph Nader would take just 3% of the vote.

Among registered voters, Kerry holds a two-point edge over Bush, with or without Nader, the poll found.

For polls taken after Labor Day, pollsters consider "likely voters" a more accurate indicator of actual election outcomes.

IBD/TIPP defines likely voters as adult Americans who say they are very likely to vote in November, have a high level of interest in the presidential election and have voted in every or nearly every presidential election.

[berner59]

5. this is the big news...

Among registered voters, Kerry holds a two-point edge over Bush, with or without Nader, the poll found.

And that Kerry is up 10 points on indies...YEAH!!!

[PartyPooper]

John Kerry will be our next real president!

I can hardly wait!

http://www.electoral-vote.com

:bounce:

[freeplessinseattle]

3. Kerry's not only going to win

but I really think it will be by a landslide, the repukes cognitive dissonance is being slowly but surely crumbling.

[Thurston Howell IV]

7. A landslide if...

he can sell himself as a desirable alternative to Bush. There is no great love for Bush in the country, but Kerry hasn't closed the deal. If he does, it will be a landslide.

[PsN2Wind]

13. Welcome

to Du but don't call me "Lovey"

[Spiffarino]

30. The tide is slowly turning

And we'll know by the last debate who it'll be. Kerry can't fall into the misunderestimator trap like everyone else who debates Shrub. He needs to work on lowering expectations, just like the Chimp has always done.

[KansDem]

42. Bush can't pull that "lowered expectations" crap again...

That might have worked 4 years ago (I personally didn't buy it), but this time around, Bush can't depend on "lowered expectations." If you're a "war president" and "responsible" for the security of the nation, then you can't do the "Golly, gee whiz, the expectations are so low I only have to show up to the debates to win, nyuck, nycuk" schtick.

He'll need to actually show he's on a much higher level against Kerry. And he will lose...

[PartyPooper]

8. LOL! I just *LOVE* your screen name. Welcome to DU!

:hi:

:toast:

:beer:

[Thurston Howell IV]

17. thanks!

I'm working behind enemy lines as a Billionaire for Bush.

[PartyPooper]

18. I was responding to freeplessinseattle!

But, welcome to DU to you, too!

:hi:

:toast:

:beer:

[Thurston Howell IV]

23. Drink is affecting my eyesight

Oops! Mixed up the lines connecting the posts.

[ruggerson]

25. kick

[M155Y_A1CH]

39. Welcome to DU

I thought I'd heard that moniker
associated with the billionaires. I was just thinking about asking.

You guys are too cool! :hi:

[PassingFair]

55. Sometimes I get flashes of this, freepless...

I'm hoping like crazy you're right. Visibility is our best friend, get those bumperstickers and lawnsigns flying!

[Thurston Howell IV]

4. Good news in the battleground states

"The poll also has good news for Kerry. Among independents, Kerry leads Bush by 10 points, 48%-38%. His lead is 12 points -- 51%-39% -- in battleground states."

The natural bias of Investors Business Daily would be for Bush, so this is an interesting poll.

[berner59]

10. that they mention the new AWOL talk...

and that could reflect the downturn of the numbers for Bush...is this why DNC could be coming out with an AWOL commercial tomorrow???

[shockingelk]

24. + something I outright reject

We're hearing at the same time that many are voting more against Bush than for Kerry.

That means the Democratic electorate is more angrily energized to show up.

FOX has the only polls where Kerry was did better among "likely" voters. FOX has been the only poll that makes sense in that way.

Plus, you have all the "new" voters - I think they'd be more likely to sign up to get Bush out than keep him in.

[yardwork]

26. There are a lot of indicators that Republican businesspeople

are waking up to the fact that shrub-o has been bad for business. Little things like the economy and hundreds of billions down the drain in Iraq.

[jwirr]

46. Like the fact

that people have stopped buying - that really got noticed. They can make their economy look good by producing more goods, stock market rises, etc. BUT they get nowhere if the people do not have enough confidence to buy. We have the power!!!!

[Thurston Howell IV]

54. Not good for American-based multinationals

Given the world-wide disgust that Bush has engendered.

[Cha]

6. This site is saying good news, too!..

"Kerry’s electoral vote lead can be largely attributed to the recent major shift of 11 states. Four former battlegrounds have moved to Kerry and seven former Bush states became freshly competitive. Although both presidential campaigns have focused money and attention on Oregon, Washington, New Hampshire, Michigan and New Mexico, those states have moved firmly toward Kerry. At the same time former Bush bastions Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee and Virginia are now in play. Eight ongoing battleground states are currently close; the candidates are within 6 percentage points of one other. And it now appears that Nader will not be a factor in the November 2 outcome."

More @..
http://www.inthesetimes.com/site/main/article/1070/





And this is from http://www.democrats.com

"The fact is, after a brief dip in the polls, which was never as great as the media hoped the Dems would believe (a clear psyche-out attempt), Kerry has rebounded with a bang and leads in electoral votes, while his popularity is growing in many states that earlier favored Bush, like Washington and NH. Not only that, but Kerry's lead is rapidly widening in states where he already leads, while Bush's lead is rapidly narrowing in states where Bush was ahead. In short, don't let them psyche you out!"

[Rose Siding]

15. Did WA State or DC ever favor Bush?

I don't recall any polls like that.

[yardwork]

27. The folks in D.C. aren't allowed to vote

They are disenfranchised. If they were allowed to vote, we'd have lots more Democratic voters, which is why the Republicans in Congress make sure that they don't get the vote.

The Constitution exempted D.C. from federal representation based on the theory that voters living close to the seat of power would have an unfair advantage over those living far away. Of course in our modern world this is an anachronism. Besides, very few powerful people actually live in D.C. now. They live in the wealthy suburbs of Virginia and Maryland.

[Sparky McGruff]

35. DC has 3 electoral votes...

Per the 23rd ammendment...

Amendment XXIII


Section 1. The District constituting the seat of government of the United States shall appoint in such manner as the Congress may direct:

A number of electors of President and Vice President equal to the whole number of Senators and Representatives in Congress to which the District would be entitled if it were a state, but in no event more than the least populous state; they shall be in addition to those appointed by the states, but they shall be considered, for the purposes of the election of President and Vice President, to be electors appointed by a state; and they shall meet in the District and perform such duties as provided by the twelfth article of amendment.

Section 2. The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.

[hansolsen]

20. Strange story really, for mainstream press. Could have been cribbed

from a tin foil filled DU thread.

[ruggerson]

37. kick

[private_ryan]

9. does anyone know their record?

let's hope they're right. Even within 2-3 points.

[joefree1]

11. 'intensity of candidate support is of utmost importance"

"In close elections such as this, the intensity of candidate support is of utmost importance," Mayur said."

[ruggerson]

12. MEDIA BLAST THIS POLL TO EVERY MAJOR TALKING HEAD

Make them actually report the news, instead of their bias for Bush.

[fearnobush]

31. Done.

[David Zephyr]

14. Well, Thank You Very Much Ruggerson For This Good News!

Now how do we shove it up CNN's collective ass?! :)

[ruggerson]

16. [e-mail]

[dumpster_baby]

19. "Among registered voters, Kerry holds a two-point edge over Bush"

..."with or without nader..."

[sonicx]

21. key stat: Kerry leads independents 48%-38%

landslide, baby! :)

[Chomskyite]

22. IBD had Bush winning in the last poll of 2000

Their final poll of 2000 had Bush ahead by two points.

http://www.tipponline.com/articles/00/final.htm

[fearnobush]

28. Just had a weird conversation with a right winger on election.

This man, a nice but forceful fella claims that he will vote for Kerry if Bin Laden is not caught or killed before election day. He then explained to me why. It was all simple irrational stuff, but essentually for him, Bush is a major failure if Bin Laden is not caught. I wonder if there are many more like him out there, and Im sure Mr. Rove as the stats on voters like this, and could there be a strategy to defeat the potential October Suprise? Not than catching Bin Laden is a bad thing, hell no, but we all know, such a victory would surely be a scam... How long was he kept on ice etc.

[AndyTiedye]

33. Is That a Real 'Bin Ladin' or a Sears 'Bin Ladin'?

Bin Ladin is probably dead in a cave somewhere, but how difficult would it be
to dress somebody up like Bin Ladin and parade him about?

[jwirr]

48. Would it be a sin

to just pray he gets caught on November 18?

[Spiffarino]

29. Kick!

Let's light this candle!

:kick:

[aquart]

32. Still wondering how it's even possible.

George Bush: disastrous and irresponsible

John Kerry: decisive and competent.

[rodmant]

34. good news, but pls roll up your sleeves and canvass for Kerry

canvassing can be invigorating, the undecideds are out there let's go get em!

[pa28]

36. A lesson for the doomsayers.

There will be ups and downs but in the end it will be close. Stay positive.

:spank:

[llmart]

38. This cannot be right....

Just yesterday afternoon while I was eating my lunch I saw Judy Woodruff on CNN say that Time polls have given Bush a double digit lead over Kerry. So, that must be correct since the whore on CNN said so:)

Nice way to start my day. Now let's all go out there and talk up Kerry/Edwards, display our bumper stickers, yard signs, wear our buttons and make sure people know that there are lots of us voting for John Kerry.

[sofa king]

40. We need Congress back, too.

If Kerry wins, and I hope he does, he's going in there with an understood mandate that he won't continue to do the awful crap that Bush has been doing. That means no lawyer team figuring out how to skirt Congress, no invoking war powers to justify doing whatever he wants.

Ideally, a President Kerry will be a far less powerful President than the current embarassment. If the Democrats don't have Committee control in Congress as well, nothing is going to get fixed, and it will be a short ride back to President Jeb and another round of irresponsible bloodletting.

(Edit: Shrub evoked fear to get his war powers. He invokes those powers to bypass that annoying Constitution.)

[RobertDevereaux]

44. Agreed!

[Curtland256]

41. Soooooo many polls!

My head is spinning! Bush up by 11%, Kerry up by 3%, dead heat! I wish I knew which ones I could trust...

...what about FOX? I'm sure their polling will be reliable...

[demokatgurrl]

43. Yes, it's all SO confusing

Every day it's up and down. Yesterday Kerry was winning on www.electoral-vote.com and today he's losing.

I think that tells us that it really IS too close to call. We can ohly make sure we get our voters to the polls, and hope the pollsters are missing a groundswell of new or previously-disenfranchised voters.

[obiwan]

58. Don't sweat it, the pundit that runs this poll is an AMATEUR!

I asked him via email; he responded by saying he has no professional polling education nor experience. He is also a registered Rethug.

Just a frustrated Freeper type having fun.

[Red Fox]

45. Not polls but the debates

Will be the deciding factor. I'm looking forward to them!

[seventhson]

47. Good news but keep in mind: "Likely Voters do NOT include all the pissed

off young people who are energized against Bush or the MILLIONS of people who have lost jobs abd health care ort had loved ones sent off to Iraq when their service was supposedly over.

So the most "accurate" polls are MISSING the RAGE felt by many who have never voted before or who have not voted much.

Therefore there is a LOT of reason to dismiss the polls that only count "likely" voters as those who have voted before or voted consistently in the past.

[951]

49. HERE COMES THE TERRA ALERTS!

n/t :party:

[henslee]

50. Is the RNC bounce a new texas line dance?

[henslee]

51. RNC Bounce Back. Is that a new type of line dance?

[henslee]

52. RNC Bounce Back. Is that a new type of line dance?

[Diana52]

53. Polls be damned...

This election remains, and always has been ours (Democrats) to lose. All the polls indicate that Kerry wins, based upon results of polling registered voters. Simple answer; difficult task. Get Out the Vote!

I've stopped watching the news. I listen to NPR while I'm walking. Other than that, I'm out of the loop. Once the talking heads began the mantra of "what happened 30 years ago doesn't count", or who cares what happened 30 years ago?", I had to remove the media-toxins from my life. I lost a brother in Viet Nam in 1970, and it DOES matter that he served and died, and my sincere hope is that someone (besides me) cares that HE served and did NOT swerve! (He was being courted by all the Big 10 teams, at the time he gave up college and actually became a REAL member of the armed forces. But, I digress.

I truly believe that the average, American white male (Joe 12-pack, if you will), prefers NOT to have a president that he has to compete with. Any man of intellect, talent, honor, faith, or record of duty has a terrible uphill climb to get elected. Violence is fashionable, and cheating/beating the system is deemed clever. Makes me very sad. Al Gore is a perfect example of my theory. Kitty Kelley, I fear will likely improve the usurper's chances or being reinstalled.
Please, don't misconstrue this as "men bashing", I am very fond of men. I just prefer mine to be confident in themselves. I detest bullies. Bullies suffer an extreme lack of self confidence. I view President Bush and his close cohorts as the perfect bullies.

Anyway kids...this election is OURS, if WE, all of us, VOTE. I, too, want MY country back!

[Zorra]

56. kick

[carnie_sf]

57. I live

in the most conservative neighborhood of San Francisco. Sounds like an oxymoron I know, but four years ago this neighborhood(Parkside) was just loaded with Bush/Cheney signs. This year the only one I've seen is on the house of the guy with the America Love it or Leave it flag out front.