Bush Making Gains in Battleground States

[Emillereid]

2 minutes ago

By TOM RAUM, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - President Bush (news - web sites) has been solidifying his gains in states that once were dead heats, forcing both parties' campaigns to alter strategies as the electoral battleground shrinks. Democrat John Kerry (news - web sites) is struggling to stay afloat in some hotly contested states, including Missouri, Wisconsin and Ohio, where polls show Bush pulling ahead.
Ohio, with 20 electoral votes, went for Bush in 2000 but economic issues this year should be helping Kerry, Democrats suggest. Unemployment in Ohio stands at 5.9 percent, above the national average of 5.4 percent.



"The big problem that Senator Kerry has right now is that he has not communicated to the people of Ohio exactly what his plans are," said Paul Tipps, a Columbus lobbyist and former state Democratic party chair. "This state is very much John Kerry's to win. But he hasn't done it yet."



Bush campaigned in Colorado on Tuesday as part of his plan to put that state, Missouri, Arizona, North Carolina, Arkansas and Louisiana out of contention before Kerry can increase his campaign effort in these second-tier battlegrounds — all of them won by Bush four years ago.........

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&ncid=716&e=4&u=/ap/20040914/ap_on_el_pr/shifting_playing_field

[Jack_Dawson]

1. God Save Us All

:puke:

[lancdem]

3. My feelings exactly

[Just Me]

47. I believe nothing I "hear", little what I read and half what I see,...

,...being the healthy skeptic, reject of cynicism, that I am.

"Polls" do not dictate the present or future, period.

I am fine with, "act consistent with the best, accept the possibility of the worst, don't pretend you can predict either" mentality.

[lancdem]

2. This is the problem, folks

It's not good news. We can ignore the national polls, but not the state trends.

[Leilani]

23. Zogby has a new state poll for Maine

& it shows a tie.

Not good.

[Freddie Stubbs]

32. Gore won Maine

by over 5% in 2000.

[shockingelk]

34. Maine is not winner take all

The winner of the popular vote gets 2 EVs.

The winner the two congressional districts takes one electoral vote.

So it could be 3-1 from ME.

Same thine for NE.

[Almost_there]

40. Has this ever happened?

I *think* I understand what the system in Maine and Nebraska is, sort of. If say Candidate A wins statewide with 52% to 48%, they will win the 2 "at large" electoral votes. Then, if A wins district 1 by 75% to 25%, they win that one vote, but, if B wins district 2 by 51% to 49%, they win that 1 vote. Bringing it to 3-1, right? I guess that makes sense, especially in New England, Vermont should really adapt that. Burlington is very progressive, while the rest of the state is conservative. But, since they are only 1 district, I guess you really need a city the size of Portland and a population that is greater than the number of cows. Oh well.

[Just Me]

38. These ridiculous polls fail to reflect a passion ignited both by "W",...

,...and against him.

While the right-wing freaks have invested themselves in a long-term campaign against the ideals upon which this country was built,...they will face a power greater than their greedy, self-consumed selves. They will be buried by the power of the people,...a power granted by God and protected by a constitution created by those who recognized that, the concentration of wealth and power has historically proven to be devastating to humanity.

[yardwork]

44. Which state trends do you mean?

Kerry's up today in Wisconsin, but down a little in Ohio. Yesterday Kerry was up in Ohio and down in Wisconsin.

The polls are jumping here there and everywhere but if you look at their methodology and margins of errors they all say the same thing - a dead heat.

My personal opinion is that the methodology of most of these polls overly favors Bush, which means that Kerry is probably ahead in most states.

It's absurd to allow daily polls to influence our emotions to this extent. The media is playing us like violins! I indeed to be recalcitrant. LOL!

Ignore the polls. Do the footwork. Write letters and help people register to vote for Kerry.

[goclark]

4. Are you saying I should start

crying now . :(

[Snellius]

5. This country is on some suicidal death trip

Economic depression, war, anthrax, drought, joblessness, increased poverty, bankruptcy, hurricanes -- what does it take to convince Americans that George W. Bush is a jinx.

[lancdem]

9. Kerry running a smart campaign would help

People know Bush has done a poor job, but many of them say they're going to vote for him because Kerry is worse. Kerry has let himself be defined as a weak flip-flopper, as someone who can't be trusted with national security.

[bain_sidhe]

13. F*ck that sh*t

This country is a mess, and George W. Bush put it there. Anybody with more than two neurons firing knows that. If the 'murkin people don't jump at the chance to replace the Moran-in-Chief with ANY half-way competent and intelligent person - whether he's running a "smart campaign" or not - they deserve four more years of hell.

Sorry for blowing up, but I've HAD it with this "it's all Kerry's fault" mentality. No, it isn't. If bu**sh** it elected, it's all AMERICA'S fault. Not me, maybe, not you, maybe but as a whole country, it IS our fault for being a nation more than half-full of idiots.

**edit to clarify**

[4_Legs_Good]

20. Point taken, but America can't win an election...

It's up to the candidate to make his/her point. If the country chooses Nimrodel to be President, then while we weep for America, we also have to charge Kerry/Edwards and the DNC for not running a good, forward looking, bold campaign.

This BS of playing "as close to Bush without going over" was a mistake. This idea of Kerry being "electable" while Dean, Kucinich, Clark, Edwards, et.al. weren't was also BS.

When the country is as brainwashed as ours is now, you can't subtly wake it up, you gotta slap it hard and shake it a little.

Kerry can still do it. I know he can, it's only a question of whether he will or not. He needs to be bold. He needs to be personal. He needs to connect.

Look at it this way - at this point you have 47% of the country voting FOR Bush. You also have 46% of the country voting AGAINST Bush. I bet there's less than 1% of likely voters who are voting FOR Kerry.

david

[lefthandedskyhook]

26. Want Democracy?

Edited to change quote after checking files... the first quote is correct :-)

"Let the people know the truth and the country is safe"

"America is safe as long as the people know the truth" -- Abraham Lincoln

The trouble right now is that too many people do not know the truth. I believe that the chimp would be a goner in a nanosecond if the media were doing its collective job. We are playing against a stacked deck here -- so get out there and spread some truth around... go to work for the Kerry campaign like your life and our children's lives depend on it (because they do).

[4_Legs_Good]

28. Absolutely!

It's amazing what's happened to the media in this country. In order to get any real truth, I had to buy a freaking shortwave radio!

The radical conservative groups have done a mind-blowingly "good" job at controlling the media and defining it.

Keep working for Kerry and keep rockin' in the free world!

david

[bain_sidhe]

31. But propaganda can only cover up so much...

At some point, it becomes a question of "who you gonna believe? The Ken and Barbie Newsreader Dolls or your own lying eyes? People know it's harder to get by, with the *true* unemployment/underemployment situation, I'd hazard a guess that everybody knows somebody who lost his/her job and can't get another one - or at least one that pays as well. Everybody knows their pensions are shot. Everybody knows their employer is socking them for more and more of the cost of health insurance - if they haven't dumped it altogether. Everybody knows their kids aren't getting a good education, that people are dying in Iraq, and that bin Laden is still on the loose, and most of them know that we haven't found any WMDs in Iraq either.

In short, just about everybody has all the facts they need RIGHT IN THEIR OWN LIVES to know that the media isn't giving them the straight story. It takes an act of willful blindness to not admit that, and seek out better sources of information. It takes an act of willful blindness to not realize that bu**sh** is a terrible president whose policies are the source of most their misery.

Thus, I repeat, if America elects him to a second term, it IS "our" (the country's) fault, because that would mean that 50+1% of the voters KNOW the media is lying, and are CHOOSING to believe it anyway.

[Sterling]

33. I agree. If I had a choice I would rather lose with Dean than Kerry.

At least W. would have a proper new orifice after the fight.

[Almost_there]

41. Is voting against bush and not for Kerry enough?

David,

Assuming that your numbers are even close to correct, and 47% are FOR Bush, and 46% AGAINST Bush, who is actually more likely to turn out? Seriously, if we assume a 55% turnout rate (10% higher than the usual 50%! yes, the math is correct, 55% is 10% more than 50%) what is the likelyhood of people who are are pissed at Bush, but, not pissed enough to get up off the couch, brush off the donut crumbs and actually vote?

I'm just wondering about the long term motivation. Is voting against someone enough to motivate thirty million people? Or, will they just look at Florida 2000, look at the choices, and since they aren't voting "FOR" anyone, just against Bush, just give up?

I'm not a firm believer in polls, especially 50 some odd days before the election, but, if people are voting against Bush, I just don't know. They might just look around, forget that their healthcare sucks, their paycheck (if they get one!) is a bit smaller (or a lot larger if they are wealthy!) and just say "Ah, %#&@$ it. I'll just watch Everybody Loves Raymond" Kerry needs to be loud and clear and get people to vote FOR him. He can do it, he just needs to get things in overdrive!!

~Almost

[4_Legs_Good]

43. I agree 100%!!!

I know *I* am voting against Bush. I would normally vote Green or Peace and Freedom, but I can't stand Bush, so I am there, I am campaigning for Democrats, I'm giving way, way, way more than I can afford to support them.

Bush DESERVES to be removed from office for what he's done to this country, and in particular to what he's done with Iraq.

BUT, there are a lot of people out there who like the son-of-a-bitch. So not only do people have to vote against Bush, but they have to vote FOR Kerry. I know for a FACT (My mother and several co-workers) who, as you say, may not vote because they don't particularly like Kerry. They don't like Bush either, but absent a candidate that they actually like, they simply will not vote for President.

Now I do believe that the media is playing a role here, and they aren't giving Kerry a fair shake. But if that's the case then Kerry has to have the wherewithall to find another way to reach the people. It's like blaming Nader. If you think Nader is going to be a spoiler then you HAVE to figure out a way to beat both Bush *and* Nader or give up now.

I think Kerry's a fine candidate, and he'll be a better than mediocre President, but he has to convince us to vote FOR him, not just AGAINST Bush. I am confident he can do it, I just pray to God that he WILL.

If we lose this election we'll *all* be sitting inside watching "Everyone Loves Raymond" and just hoping and praying that the next four years go by as quickly as possible.

They say Kerry is a strong finisher, I sure hope so!

david

[lancdem]

29. I partly agree

but it is Kerry's responsibility to make a strong case and fight off the attacks. Has he ever responded to the flip-flop charge by turning it on Bush? You don't let it sit out there figuring people will see through it on their own.

[lefthandedskyhook]

30. Yes he has n/t

[GreenGreenLimaBean]

19. kerry didn't let them, the SCLM let bush* define Kerry

Until we put the fear of losing sponsors into the hearts of the press we will continue to lose elections.

but all is not lost. I still think people are snowing the pollsters. mainly because I can't for the life of me envision anyone who voted for gore last time changing to bush. but on the flipside, there are an aweful lot of people who voted for bush* that won't be voting for him again.

[mbperrin]

6. The people of Ohio certainly know *'s plans -

lose them more jobs!!!

So feel free to vote for more!!

[lefthandedskyhook]

7. The sky isn't falling

Here in New Mexico we are going to win. I expect that other states have similar organized efforts.

The polls are far too erratic to be trusted: a lot can go wrong in any given poll, and they always get way too much attention. No pollsters that I know of are taking voters without landlines into account, many are using unrealistic party distribution statistics, and even Gallup is trusting likely voter data over registered voters. Something fishy is going on -- surprised?

Sitting on the pity pot will only work against us. Keep your eyes on the prize and be confident.

[goclark]

24. Thanks for the pep talk

[Borgnine]

8. These gulliable fuckers deserve what they get...

...but the informed Americans, as well as the rest of the world, don't.

I fear for humanity.

[xyboymil]

10. Give me a break: Strategic Vision (R) and Gallup did the poll!

1.) A known Repuke polling source in Strategic Vision and Gallup did these polls.

2.) People, grow a spine. There are going to be polling data showing * ahead then Kerry, back to *, back to Kerry, and on and on until November 2nd. RELAX!!

The formula for polling takes 0..none..nada..new voters or those who havent voted in an election for years. SO MANY OF KERRY SUPPORTERS FALL INTO THIS CATEGORY.

In addition, 62% to 31% are voters 18-30 breaking for John Kerry. Few of them have landlines to poll. They all have cell phones and again are not part of this polling data.

WE will WIN! Period. Stop stressing out over these damn polls! :nuke:

[Emillereid]

16. Do you or anyone have real data concerning the historical

accuracy of any of these polling outfits? Is there evidence that suggests that Strategic Vision and Gallup should not be believed -- do they have a poor historical record for inaccurate forecasting? Who is the most accurate? I've taken my share of statistics and I can't believe that the polling folks are nimwits who leave whole categories of possible voters out of their equations. If they do -- then you're right -- all bets are off for the accuracy of this stuff.

[xyboymil]

18. Stragetic Vision has been hired by the Republican party exclusively..

for years! Therefore, it is questionable as to their methods of how they poll. For example, if I ask you a leading question such as "the sky is blue isn't it?" you will be much more likely to answer yes vs. if I ask you "what color is the sky?".

Stragetic Vision has been questionable because they are paid by RW organizations who pay 100's of thousands of dollars for their data.

As far as Gallup goes, they are paid highly by CNN/USA Today who has been so biased to the right at times, again their data is questionable considering who is paying them to get it.

Gallup has also been known as an "outlier" poll in many of the polls published throughout this election year. Their results don't jive with other more precise polling sources such as Zogby.

[Emillereid]

21. Has Zogby been the most reliable of the polling organizations?

[Ruby Romaine]

35. I agree!

so many new voters will vote this year!

[Almost_there]

42. Is Gallup reliable?

I don't like discrediting any one polling source, reason being that this is their bread and butter. If Gallup was off by a boat load, or Zogby totally blew the poll, or something like that, to such an egregious degree, they would simply start being ignored and start the slide into oblivion.

As far as landlines, cell phones, etc, polls actually do take things like that into consideration. The saddest part is that 18-30 year olds are the smallest by a huge margin percentage of turnout.

I agree with your assesment that things will be fine, but, don't just ignore polls. Use them to at least get a feel for how the wind is blowing, but, know that it is a fickle and changing wind. You are right about things changing on a dime though, I've said time and again for people to stop stressing over bad polls, and then holding good polls up like they are the Truth from on high or something.

Polls are just that, polls, They have error, they have bias. Take the good ones and bad ones with a giant salt lick and then forget all about it.

~Almost

[Teaser]

11. That's it you whiny wimps.

I'm sick to death of the constant fear, fear, fear on this board. I'm worried this. I'm concerned that. Blah Blah Blah.

worry all you fucking want. But keep your worries in private. What the fuck good does it do to keep acting like a bunch of ninnies when a bad number comes out. Jesus, the other day Kerry was ahead in electoral votes. One bad set of polls by a single polling firm (and a Republican polling firm to boot) and great masses of DU start pissing and moaning about this and that.

Get out. You don't belong in politics.

Get out. You don't have the stones for politics.

Get out. You're too wimpy to be in politics.

Get out. You don't help those who are in politics.

Get out. You are actively helping the enemy.

Jesus, some of you are just bleating babies whining for their mommy because your candidate doesn't have a lock on this election.

[CatWoman]

27. damn, Teaser. I needed that!!!!!

it does get on your fucking nerves, doesn't it?

[Kukesa]

36. Amen, Teaser and CatWoman, Amen!! n/t

[yardwork]

48. Hoo-Rah!

True that.

[chromotone]

12. Does anyone else find it odd...

...that in the wake of the GOP hate-fest and during the midst of much anti-Bush news (CBS and the TANG, Kitty Kelly book, etc) that we suddenly get all these feel-good polls for Bush?

I mean, the GOP convention was a wash at best, filled with hate and Kerry-, Dem-, France-bashing. Bush hasn't spoken much since so there is nothing to judge him on, yet there is this sudden explosion in the polls in his favor.

I wonder if the time between the RNC and the first debate will be spent trying to convince the American voter that Bush is "unbeatable?"

[stepnw1f]

14. Repug Propaganda

[The Stranger]

15. " . . . not communicated to the people . . . what his plans are . . . "

The media has squelched his communications to the people and, by so doing, has assaulted his candidacy and scuttled his campaign.

[MissMarple]

17. No, he's not.

This is just stupid hype. An editorial headline in the Denver Post today "Are Coloradans Better Off Than Four Years Ago?". And our Colorado Springs Gazette has bad news on more job losses. And when you mention the coming draft and its' current implementation, folks are surprised and shocked. And as yet, no one is aware of how Iraq is imploding. So cheer up!

The sad thing is someone other than the Bushies have to clean up their horrible messes.

Here's a Post link:

http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1413,36~417~2399311,00.html

[jumpstart33]

22. It doesn't matter what Kerry says and how detailed he gets, the media

will keep reporting that he not being specific (eventhough Bush is not even being coherent). We just have to live with what our country has become at the hands of the oligarchy that is controlling it. We will do our best to fight it through voting these horrible people out of office, but don't lose sleep over it. We will survive. If the country wants Bush they deserve him.

[TexasBushwhacker]

37. I agree - People keep saying they want a point by point plan

from Kerry for getting out of Iraq. They don't have a point by point plan from Bush, but that doesn't seem to matter. They're willing to let him "finish" the war because he started it (even though we shouldn't be there in the first place).

I question the wisdom of Kerry showing his hand regarding the war, but right now all he's saying is that he's going to get more international participation. Well, even I am wondering exactly how he expects to make that happen. The time for the international support was at the beginning. If we didn't get it then, we aren't going to get it now, no matter who is President. He's going to have to bite the bullet and discuss a plan for getting the US out and cleaning up the mess without the support of our former allies. Yes, it's Bush's mess, but without a clear plan for getting us out of it, and being VERY VOCAL ABOUT IT, Kerry is making the chances of Bush dragging it out another 4 years a very likely possibility. It's time for Kerry to shit or get off the pot. It's not fair, but that's the way it is.

[progressivebydesign]

25. I have a houseguest from Europe here this week..

.. she cannot fathom WHY anyone would vote for Bush. The Europeans read all about the state of our country, and about Bush's failures, and they think we're loony for even considering giving him another go. It makes no sense to them... they find his religious rhetoric to be frightening, given their own history with politics and religion.

She said that many of the young friends of her family were very upset that she'd want to come here... saying that Bush and the Americans were assholes... but she has assured them that we are ALL not Bush fans here, and it's not EVERYONE'S fault in the U.S. that he's there...

She loves to take photos of the great liberal bumper stickers on the cars... She saw a pickup truck at the voting venue today, and asked if that was a "redneck" who will be voting for Bush? It was hilarious.

[Only Me]

39. Don't forget...

to rate this one. I have given it a 1.00
Thanks!

[WLKjr]

45. I was an advisor to Kerry Camp. right now

I would tell him and Edwards to 'live' in Ohio till Nov. When one leaves, one comes in to keep campaigning. Ohio will vote JK/JE in '04, but I still say they need to spend a LOT MORE time here. Start visiting the country towns over in NW, NC, SW Ohio more.

[drscm]

46. WTF has *bush "COMMUNICATED" to the people of Ohio?

Our own party is killing us....

It's Kerry's to PROVE what he can do??????

In nonsensical two second sound bites so that the most simplistic idiots can understand?

[EndElectoral]

49. This article has been on Yahoo's main page all day..wonder why?

[jackieforthedems]

50. Bush Making Gains In His Dreams

is more like it. Don't be discouraged about the polls, people! If anything, be encouraged to fight all the more harder to help Kerry/Edwards win this election!!! We can do this! As my husband says, "No more Bush!!!"