Bush Lead Narrows in National Polls; Kerry Holds Edge in Electoral Votes

[takumi]

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aH_1dXZAf5M4&refer=home

Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush's lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry shrank to 4 percentage points or less in five national polls released this week. Two state-by- state polls gave Kerry an edge in the electoral votes needed to win the election.

Bush led Kerry 48 percent to 45 percent in an NBC/Wall Street Journal survey and 46 percent to 42 percent in a Fox News poll. Polls conducted in individual states by American Research Group and Zogby International showed Kerry leading in the contest for states with the most electoral votes, apportioned based on Congressional representation, that the U.S. uses to pick the president.

. . .

[CO Liberal]

1. And Once The Debates Start, Kerry Will Take Over the Lead...

...and keep it. Once the nation learns the the GOP has been lying about Kerry, Iraq, and everything else, people will start abandoning Pretzelboy in droves.

:kick:

[TrogL]

9. Don't get your hopes up for the debates

Just like last time. Dubya could soil the carpet and still win.

[KansDem]

11. Not this time...

Last time, Bush was the DC "outsider." His handlers projected him as a "down-home" country-boy who was not really too bright but "said what he meant" and "meant what he said."

Not this time.

This time Bush is the DC "insider." After he presided over the worst terrorist attack on American soil, he proclaimed himself a "war president" got us into an unpopular war with lies and deceit. He has the blood of over 1,040 American service men and women on his hands, in addition to 10,000s of Iraqis.

The economy is down and the deficit up. He has shown himself to be a shill for corporate interests at the expense of the public good.

People are not better off than they were 4 years ago. In some respect, Bush ran on Clinton's record...(peace/prosperity, so why not elect a good ol' boy? What harm could it do?). Since there is so much death and chaos going on in the world, expectations will be high. Very high. And the public is going to want to see what Bush (and Kerry) will do about it.

I believe he will be held to a much higher standard than 4 years ago. And very few people will accept the "lowered expectations" bullshit propagated by the RNC and media. It will be very difficult for him to do the "Aw, shucks" routine this time...

[democrat_patriot]

12. Every media station will call it a tie, or even

a Kerry loss. That's how it now works.

Unless whistle-ass blows a gasket, it won't change much. They aren't allowed to interact.

Question 1: "Do you believe we are safer now with Saddam 'gone'?

Bush: Yes - terrorist, thugs, elections in IRaq, 200 schools blah blah blah.

Kerry: No - more terrorists, soldiers dying, civil war.

[KansDem]

16. Put another way...

If Bush performs in the debates like he did yesterday with his rose-garden press conference with Iyad Allawi (and I have no reason to believe he won't), then Kerry will "win" the debates and come off looking much more "presidential."

Bush was awful (and that's putting it nicely):

Pres. Bush & Interim Iraqi P.M. Iyad Allawi Joint Press Conference (09/23/2004)
http://www.cspan.org


Simply repeating over and over that "it's hard work in Iraq" why chuckling is not going to work as a debate strategy.

Even the Media Whores won't be able to spin these debates to Bush's benefit like last time...

[democrat_patriot]

24. I can only hope.

He's now in a hyperbolic chamber getting supr enriched oxygen pumped to his 'brain', skin will look less sallow.

He keeps hopping/boucing like he can't stand still, looks uncomfotable in a suit.

[rjbny62]

25. cspan link broken?

Anyone else been able to open the video of the press conference yesterday?

PS - using Windows Media Player

[Born Free]

32. he still pretends to be the outsider

I love it when he complains about the "insiders" knowing the "insider" describes the proximity to the president. They also like to say they are not the one determining what is politically correct. It a great way to have it, they have all the control and can still blame the democrats and "liberals" for all that goes wrong. DO NOT expect any media outlet to do anything other than phrase the bush cowards performance int he debates, democrats must learn to live with a hostile media.

[Andromeda]

28. Democrats are building up expectations for Dubya...

John Quinn, Dem spokesman said on CNN today that Shrub is a good debater because he's folksy and friendly. He went on to say, and I'm paraphrasing here, that Kerry is a superb debater but he's not taking anything for granted.

In 2000 Bush was underestimated in the debates and Gore was expected to be better than he came across. Consequently, the media just reamed Gore when he sighed or when he didn't come across as "nice" or appeared to be talking down to everybody. They even made fun of Gore because he sweated!

[struggle4progress]

37. Kerry can do his part. We must do ours to help him win. eom

[lancdem]

2. I think the lead is just 2 in the Fox poll

45-43. :)

[Infomaniac]

3. This can't be good for the Evil One

The Evil One is the incumbent and it's nearly the end of September; he still hasn't locked up a majority. The undecideds typically break in favor of the challenger. This shrub is toast.

[Jaybird]

4. hence, all the kerry is a terrorist lover talk...

..from the right

[BJ]

5. It's the Electoral College vote that counts

As recent history informs us, a presidential candidate can lose the popular vote and ,with the aid of the Supreme Court, still win the electoral vote.

But of course if the popular vote is overwhelming, then the electoral vote will not be in doubt.

Therefore, the Repiglicans will be even more blantant in their thief of the election.

[llmart]

6. I'm glad I decided to log into DU right now....

because all I'm hearing about on MSRNC and CNN is how Bush has a 7 or 8 point lead over Kerry and on Internet Explorer's MSN homepage the headlines "Good News for Bush". I am so sick of these media outlets trying to pretty much call the election over already. However, you know the average person will look at that (and this is what the media wants) and say, oh, well, looks like Bush is going to be elected.

I want to scream!

[TucsonGreen]

7. Don't Let the Poll Bastards Get You Down

In the "Tell everyone you know" category: There's been a lot of talk lately about how Gallup, the most often quoted polling organization that always ends up with the best results for Bush, is oversampling Republicans. In some of their latest polls, the samples were 40% Rep, 35% Dem, and 25% Other, even though more Dems have voted than Reps in the last 2 presidential elections. Both Zogby and Rasmussen have made rare public statements criticizing the Gallup results. You can read more here:

www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/002806.html

And guess who Gallup's CEO has been giving money to...

[KansDem]

15. "...oh, well, looks like Bush is going to be elected."

Yes, and if they are leaning "Bush" they'll stay home on Nov. 2, safe and cozy in believing Bush "has won."

And if they are leaning "Kerry," they'll shout "No, way!!!" and run to the polls...

If Rove, the Media, and the GOP think sham polls like these are going to demoralize Dems, they got another thing coming. Everyone I know who is strong-Kerry or even slightly-leaning Kerry is pissed off about sElection2000, and all the Bush Bullshit that has happened since.

The only thing that chafes my ass about this is how they (Rove and the Media) tried this in 2000 and they think they can get away with it again...

[Charles19]

35. Media may talk but our votes are going to make Bush walk...

right back to Texas.

[calimary]

21. On the other hand, it might be a good thing if the conservatives and

republi-CONS and republi-CON sympathizers see this and get lulled into some complacency. Hopefully, if some of them think there's no reason to sweat it, maybe the urgency of their turning out the vote won't be viewed as so critical. You just have to make sure that every Democrat, liberal, progressive, and independent you know will seize the moment and go vote.

I, for one, would be MOST tempted to say to some of the republi-CONS I know - "well, you're probably not gonna have to worry about it..."

[mediaman007]

29. Not me!...I'm CNN, Time-Warner, AOL Free for 3 weeks!

I would rather be here than listening/watching that collection of shills.

[SammyWinstonJack]

34. Which is why I don't watch bush*'s PR Media

I really don't like screaming much.

[Terran]

8. It's gonna be a landslide

The puggies are in for a huge friggin surprise on November 2nd because they want to believe the poles are right and that they actually have a chance. There are literally millions of new voters aout there who aren't being contacted by the pollsters, not to mention the cell phone-only group.

[Az_lefty]

10. Hope your right, I'm so sick of the shrub I can't stand it any more.

that pathetic bastard has to go!

[Terran]

13. "Mark my words!"

he said dramtically. :)

Seriously, I really think even the polls most favorable to Kerry are methodologically off-base. As many at DU say, this is an election like no other. And I seriously doubt that even diebolding will stop Kerry from winning.

[Bush was AWOL]

38. That cell-phone only group is actually pretty damn big

especially with young people. I'm 24 and most of the people I know only have a cell phone, and let me tell you, they sure as hell aren't voting for Bush.

[Roy]

14. How can you tell when Kerry's' message is getting out?

Easy, look at the poll that says what issues people care most about.

A week ago the media was implying that Bush will win because Iraq and the WOT are the main concern followed by the economy.

This week Kerry exposes Bush (and his puppet Allawi) as dropping the ball on Iraq and WOT.

Now, MS-NBC is reporting polls saying that the economy is most important issue.


You can see the pattern:
analyst all over the place says no president is re-elected, polling less than 50%.
Immediately you see on CNN every 10 minutes, ignoring all polls except Gallup, reporting 51% and 52% lead for Bush.

Then they talk about the importance of the Women vote.
Immediately you see polls with Bush leading or close to Kerry in a usually Democratic constituency.

This pattern goes on and on.

When I see this misinformation I just laugh and commit to finding 5 more people to register and get to the polls.

They are very frightened, cause they see only one vision, that vision is Kerry in a landslide.

[cthrumatrix]

17. and the MEDIA goes QUIET.....no drudge siren

[eduardito]

18. ARG & Zogby

Thosea re the only 2 major polls that have a kerry lead. All the other polls have a 5-8 point bush lead. A site that pools all the major polls has bush way ahead in the electoral vote

[mzmolly]

22. What polls are you talking about?

If you check polling report the trend is Bush down ... Kerry up

Bush's lead this week, has faded to within the margin of error where he's polling well.

http://pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

[eduardito]

26. http://www.electoral-vote.com/

They have it bush311, kerry 213

This site :http://www.tripias.com/state/

has it 307-231

They both factor in ALL the polls

[mzmolly]

30. 2 days ago Kerry was in the lead on this very website.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/sep/sep22.html

[Nicholas_J]

33. Both the General Zogby Poll, THe Zogby/WSJ Interative,

ANd the latest ARG have Kerry ahead in ELectoral Votes.

Race for President Falls Back into Dead Heat, New Zogby Interactive Presidential Battleground Poll Reveals



The race for President of the United States continued to tighten during the last two weeks, as President Bush continued his long, hard slog back toward parity with Democratic challenger John Kerry, throwing the race into a virtual dead heat, the latest package of polls by Zogby Interactive shows.

Neither Mr. Bush nor Mr. Kerry holds a clear-cut lead in enough states to win the Electoral College votes required to capture the White House. Based on individual polls conducted simultaneously Sept. 13-17 in 20 battleground states. Here’s the latest chart:

BY'S RACE SO FAR:
Sept 21

President Bush
241

Senator Kerry
264

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=868

Kerry has 264 EV to Bush's 241.


The ZOgby Battlegound States poll (ZOgby/WSJ INteractive Polls has the following)

Zogby Battleground Poll: Kerry Leads Electoral College 297-241
Someone phone John Kerry. According to John Zogby, Kerry is winning the Electoral College handily 297-241. There is no bad news in this “poll” for John Kerry, he leads everywhere. He’s ahead in these crucial states according to Zogby, Florida, Iowa, Arkansas, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Oregon and Wisconsin. In fact, I highly recommend that all of the democrats that see other polling data showing Kerry losing ground in many states, only look at this "poll." According to Zogby, Kerry has even taken back control of the race.

http://www.washingtondispatch.com/page2/archives/000591.html


American Research Group:


How close is the race for president?

George W. Bush is at 47% and John Kerry is at 46% in the weighted national popular vote.
Bush leads outside the margin of error in 17 states with 133 electoral votes.
Kerry leads outside the margin of error in 10 states with 132 electoral votes.
h has any lead in 29 states with 253 electoral votes.
Kerry has any lead in 20 states with 270 electoral votes.
Bush and Kerry are tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia.
Bush needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.
Kerry needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Maine, Florida, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.
Among men nationwide, 51% say they would vote for Bush and 42% say they would vote for Kerry.
Among women nationwide, 42% say they would vote for Bush and 50% say they would vote for Kerry.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com

And now the report in Bloomberg.

Another electoral vote projestion has Kerry catching up to Bush in the electoral college as well. Rasmussen has had Kerry behind Bush for months in the elecoral college with Bush having 213 Electoral votes since the Republican Convention, but Kerry slipping as low as 175 EV on September 6th. Todays Rasmussen has Kerry nad BUsh equal in the polls and Kerrry has moved up to hving 211 Electoral votes, while Buh has not increase during the same period, but still has 213 electoral votes. This indicates stagnation on the part of the Bush Campaign, but forward momentum for Kerry.



Four different polls and politicl analysts have Kerry head in the electoral college by varying degreess.

[Renew Deal]

19. Imagine the irony

if Kerry only won the EC.

[L.A.dweller]

31. Instant Karma is gonna get them

Knock 'em right off their dumb feet!!

[hansolsen]

20. Based on 2000 poll results Kerry can trail by 3 to 5 % in the polls and

still win on election day. Rove hates these numbers. Turnout among newly registered voters and hatred of Bush in the Dem base will rule on election day.

Take heart.

[MallRat]

23. The "Comeback Kerry" storyline is starting to take shape!!!

The media loves a good story.

-MR

[shockingelk]

39. They like anything that sells ads

Unless something unforeseen happens it will be "anybody's race" for a while. They loved FL 2000. That was a media election wet dream.

[Andromeda]

27. CNN has Bush with 301 EV

and Kerry at 237.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/23/electoral.map/index.html

Too much emphasis is put on the polls because this election is too volatile and things are changing rapidly. CNN would have you believe that the race is over, Bush has already won so Kerry voters might just as well stay home and not bother to vote.

Don't get discouraged by all this because these polls are wrong. About this time in the 2000 race they had Gore down as much as 10 points and he won the popular vote by a wide margin -- 500,000 votes.

A lot of that red they show on their electoral map is going to be blue on November 2nd.

[TruthIsAll]

36. ELECTION MODEL UPDATED FOR ZOGBY/ARG: KERRY 306 EV 94% WIN PROB

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/