Three Shiite Provinces Apply for Autonomy in Iraq

[baby_bear]

http://www.zaman.com/?bl=international&alt=&trh=20040927&hn=12536\

Three Shiite Provinces Apply for Autonomy in Iraq

<snip>
Three Shiite provinces under the control of British forces in southern Iraq followed the example of the Kurdish region in the north and applied to the Bagdat (Baghdad) administration in order to be recognized as an "autonomous territory".

The local administrators of Basra, Amara, and Nasiriye agreed that they wanted to unify and be granted autonomy. Basra Governor, Hasan Rasid reported that they sent their demands to interim Iraq Prime Minister Iyad Allawi. This development, confirmed also by the speaker of the parliament in Amara province, increases the disintegration anxieties of Iraq.

...
Basra province, like Kirkuk, sits atop vast oil reserves of Iraq. Three million people live in the territory that is also home to Iraq's only seaport. Iraq Kurdistan Democratic Party (IKDP) leader Mesut Barzani's newspaper, Taakhi, endorsed the Shiites' initiative and called it a "righteous decision". The developments are especially worrying to Iraqi Turkmen, who feel that the disintegration of Iraq has begun. The Iraq Interim Government will make the final decision on the matter in the upcoming days.

The provinces resisting against the coalition forces in Iraq will become isolated provided that the region controlled by the Shiites in southern Iraq obtains autonomy.

</snip>
I'm not sure the upshot of that last paragraph.
Thoughts?

s_m

[sam sarrha]

1. THE DREADED CIVIL WAR IS ABOUT TO START.. NEXT THE kURDS

[tridim]

3. But you're just guessin' right?

Gawd help Iraq.

[Aidoneus]

12. "the civil war is about to start"--wailed after a slightly late sunrise

it's getting a little ridiculous..

[daleo]

2. I think they mean: Divide and Conquer

If the Shiite provinces in the south under British "control" become autonomous, they will quit resisting the occupation. Then, the remaining provinces in the middle of the country will be the only ones still resisting, i.e. "isolated".

It sounds like somebody's pipe dream. I still see plenty of reports of resistance in Kirkuk, including deaths of U.S. soldiers there. As far as I know, that is in the northern region that has applied for autonomy. So, the factual premise of the theory seems unsound, not to mention the political ramifications of a U.S./U.K. directed partition of the country.

Probably the occupation forces think a divide and conquer strategy will work to subdue the resistance and make controlling the oil easier. It will probably cause a nationalist backlash and intensify the resistance.

Edit - I guess Kirkuk is excluded from the autonomous region in the north. People are still dying there.

[leftchick]

17. Basra still has many "no go" zones....

this is someone's pipe dream.

[FormerOstrich]

4. I know I am probably over simplifying horribly but...

this is what I think should happen. Maybe someone can explain why it wouldn't work.

I think they divide Iraq into 3 or 4 entities. The US pulls back and guards the border from unauthorized immigrants. All the aid money will be paid out to each entity. Any entity can hire (at a discount rate) US troops for re-building efforts. US troops will defend any entity from any aggressor entities (by request). The oil money is all divided equally among them.

If one group feels they didn't get as much land as they wanted then they can buy it with their revenue. They would all have incentive to keep the oil flowing since it is equally divided. From there they could decide on their own who is in charge, if they want to merge together or stay autonomous. We keep moving our troops home.

Makes sense to me anyway....

[UCLA Dem]

5. Question: where is the oil?

Is it concentrated in only one region. If it is evenly dispersed I think that might be a viable option, seeing as none seems to want to compromise.

[FormerOstrich]

6. I think the oil fields are

spread throughout but I am not positive.

In my vision they share the oil revenue so they would have to share responsibility, regardless of where it's located at. I guess that would be the "commons".

They all would have incentive to work together on the oil since it is shared equally (even if the population of each entity is not shared equally). They could use their "shares" to bargain with each other, if necessary. Plus, they'd have all our tax dollars (once again equal percentage). On request, we would mediate disputes about the oil fields.

This would allow them to hire whomever they want to rebuild in their sector. We could have the Army Corp of Engineers available at a discount. For everything else they could hire it or do it themselves. In other words all the Haliburton contracts are off the table unless they are rehired.

If the sectors worked together, then they could build a one Iraq. If they didn't they wouldn't. It would be their call.

I know it's a daydream!! But I don't see why it wouldn't work.....

[ze_dscherman]

9. Oil fields are mainly in the Kurdish and the Shiite regions

Map is from 1992



Also, if Iraq is divided, what will happen to Baghdad? This city is a mix of all ethnicities ...

[Aidoneus]

13. here's a better map--

[Aidoneus]

11. they're spread around

most of the production right now is around al-Basrah (well, before the resistance attacks shut down this grand theft operation), but there are also larger, older, fields around Tel-Afar & Kirkuk in the north. There's also some large fields east of Baghdad, but lesser in comparison. Smaller fields exist all over the country.

[shadu]

7. Won't work because bush and co. will not let it work

I have no idea how a three or four state Iraq would
work but it is a moot question anyway.
Bush does not want an autonomous, strong Iraq.

[Nancy Waterman]

14. I totally agree, former ostrich

Divide it into three parts. The US protects the borders. The three parts can have their own laws and culture and religion, but the "federation" shares the economy: the port, the oil wealth, trade issues.

I think Kerry should propose this and take the bull by the horns. We should help shape this so that it doesn't become a civil war. Otherwise, we are resisting the inevitable.

[BrotherBuzz]

8. Bush* is finding out....

Holding Iraq together is like nailing jello to a tree.

[0007]

10. That's a good analogy, LOL!

[VegasWolf]

15. Yes. But Haliburton has already rejected all three applications. n/t

[SKKY]

16. HA HA HA...

...That's brilliant! You should send that to the Kerry Camp. We need more quick one-liners like that.