Bush Increases Lead Over Kerry in Latest Pew Poll

[nine30]

Whats happening ????

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Bush Increases Lead Over Kerry in Latest Pew Poll

27 minutes ago Politics



WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites)'s lead over Democratic nominee John Kerry (news - web sites) increased to eight points in a Pew Research Center poll released on Tuesday, compared to a slight three-point lead in a poll conducted last week.


The telephone survey of registered voters showed 48 percent would vote for Bush and 40 percent for Kerry. A similar poll conducted from Sept. 17 to Sept. 21 showed Bush with 45 percent and Kerry with 42 percent.

The Pew Research Center poll of 1,200 adults was conducted between Sept. 22 and Sept. 26 and included 948 registered voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=615&ncid=696&e=5&u=/nm/20040928/pl_nm/campaign_poll_pew_dc

[Jack_Dawson]

1. 1,200 people vs. 200 million

We'll see...we'll see.

[sweetladybug]

7. Hell I'm getting discouraged. I think we're pissing in the wind

The Republicans OWN the cable news media, talk radio, most of the newspapers and the voting machines. They have control of the whitehouse, senate, the house, the the supreme court. They are wealthy con men in control of our country and they AIN'T going to give up their power. The common man has brainwashed and have drank too much of the republican koolaide and we have lost any power we once had in this country. Someday maybe the sheep will wake up but it will be after one hell of a fight.
Just my opinion
Gayle

[OneBlueSky]

9. unfortunately, you're absolutely correct . . .

they DO own everything, and they are not about to let Kerry win, no matter how many votes he gets . . .

[saracat]

14. So are you both are going to drink the cool aid?

I too, am panicked but I refuse to give in .I just turn off the tube and any lying negativity. We can win .This is all an illusion spun by the GOP. If this is the true face of America, Then I'll leave .I want no part of it. But it isn't over till the fat lady sings and she isn't singing.

[Dimsdale]

16. The true face of America...

Agreed. If after all that Chimpy and his neocon douchebags have pulled off in the last 3+ years, he is installed for another term, then there's something rotten to the core here. I've friends in the UK. Blair will be gone soon. I'm considering heading on out of here if the son of bitch steals four more.

[SPQR]

2. A woman I work with

says any poll with a margin of error over 3% is meaningless. Any one else know if this is true? (This poll's margin is 3.5%.)

[papau]

4. It is not true - Pew is a solid poll - but this one looks like there are

math errors

[private_ryan]

8. wake up

Gallup, ABC and now this...all with the same lead. Kerry deserves to lose based on he has run the campaign. Ask people what they think of Kerry, and they'll mention a Bush talking point.

[papau]

11. perhaps there has been a move to IND or GOP ID - but I doubt it

:-)

[progressivebydesign]

13. Yeah.. like Gore deserved to lose.. right?

Unless you have a couple billion lying around to buyout the corporate media, which has come out solidly behind Bush, then I suggest your comments about Kerry deserving to lose because of how he ran his campaign, are nothing more than armchair quarterbacking. When you run for President, please let us all know... we'd be happy to blast you when the GOP corporate media kicks your ass daily.

[papau]

3. Results are not internally consistent - there is an error somewhere

If the move to the GOP party ID is real - these results are real. BUT I do not think there has been such a move.
http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/226demographic.pdf
GOP 90- 3 (7)
DEM 10-81 (9)
IND 46-38 (16)

are split in voting by party,

but 48-40 has 12 not sure, which needs something close to 50% ind,

with say GOP at 26 and Dem at 24 (not exact as I did not actually solve - but close)

Not mathematically possible(?) with 95% confidence in a sea of 35/35/30 party split

[OKNancy]

5. What's happening?

Polls are just a snapshot. Don't like this poll?...like one that shows Kerry ahead.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x871121

[Pachamama]

6. Yeah, right....

Don't believe it folks....can anyone, Dem or Freeper name one single thing that GW and the Bushites have done that would have him up in the polls? Or Kerry something negative that would have him down in the polls? Did I miss something? Is the War on IRAQ going well? Has the economy taken such a huge leap that Americans and consumer confidence are up? Do Americans's really feel safer? Huh?

[okieinpain]

10. well I was going to do my own post, but this one needs some help

I was in the store today, and I happened to look at the usa today front page. low and behold there is a graph with our two favorite candidates and yes bush has a 8 point lead. but one thing about graphs they not only show you the current total, but they also show the current trend. bush's trend is on the way down, and kerry's is on the way up. all kerry has to do is not blow the debates, stay on message till 11/2 and this race will be within the margin of error.

once it's within the moe, all polls are out the window, and it will be all about who's got the turnout. Kerry is going to win folks.

[enough]

12. Before you give another thought to any polls

please read robbedvoter's thread here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x912337

Where you will find a stunning article outlining the absolute hogwash that was the polling in the runnup to the last election. PLEASE READ THE ARTICLE.

From that thread, here is what CNN posted on OCTOBER 27, 2000
(A CNN / USA TODAY / GALLOP POLL):

[Magleetis]

15. Don't believe the polls

we need to keep our nose to the grindstone and vote.

[fldem001]

17. A poll more like it!!!

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

Does anyone know the validity of this poll? Is it legit?

[wrate]

18. Rasmussen and Zogby are the polls to believe.

[n2mark]

19. Don't Give Up

Just remember, Truman beat Dewey. The newspaper headlines said... "Dewey Wins" but Truman won.

Is there any data from that year?

[asian_al]

20. darrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Polls are worthless until a week after the final and 3rd debate.

U know how many people are not counted in them bullshit polls???

[tedoll78]

21. Yup.

Around mid-October is when I really would bother to begin to worry. Gallup then had Gore down by about 14%, I recall. Pretty ridiculous that polls had such a wild fluctuation pattern.

Another key thing to remember? In 2000, the pollsters consistently underestimated our turnout efforts. In light of the new registered voters statistics, it looks like we'll probably top our GOTV efforts from that year.. which is a truly phenominal thing.