Analyst: No Kerry ads means he's conceding Mo.

[pstokely]

http://www.darnews.com/articles/2004/09/29/news/news5.txt

ST. LOUIS (AP) -- The fact that the Democratic National Committee is no longer airing TV ads in Missouri suggests that Sen. John Kerry is ceding the state to President Bush, an advertising analyst told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Kerry ended his own ads in the state two months ago, and the DNC's last TV ad in Missouri aired Friday, the same day that regional Democratic operatives were declaring that the national party remained financially committed to running ads in the state.

Independent polls have generally shown Bush with a growing lead over Kerry in Missouri.

"My guess is that they have chosen to 'cut and run,"' said Evan Tracey, head of TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group, a nonpartisan national ad-tracking firm whose clients include the Post-Dispatch.

[nickinSTL]

1. Keep believing that

n/t

[pstokely]

3. I haven't seen any DNC ads in Kansas City

* is still running ads

one poll had it at * 50 Kerry 46

[Carolab]

2. bad strategy

basic axiom of marketing--when business slows, pump up the advertising

[bif]

4. Or he figures it's in the bag

One or the other.

[TheDebbieDee]

5. I went to a Kerry Meet-up last Thursday......................

Campaign Kerry has NOT written off Missouri. According to the Kerry Campaign staffer attending the meeting, the Kerry Campaign is about to hire 25 more full-time staffers in Missouri. (The staffer telling us this had just been moved to Misosuri from New Hampshire.)

Also, in an effort to "save the best for a last run" the Kerry Campaign pulled an ad buy so that they could run the ads closer to Election Day. However, the DNC was supposed to take up the slack with regards to commercials in Missouri.

[hippiechick]

6. So, by his own logic ...

Cheney cancelling rallies in Michigan should mean that the GOP is conceding there, too, right ??


:freak:

[earthside]

7. My 'Show Me' State Friends

My 'Show Me' state friends tell me that Kerry has got the state sown-up.

So it is quite the opposite of the Bush disinformation campaign ... voter registration numbers and GOTV and Kerry polls show that Missouri is not winnable for Bush. So why spend a lot of money in a state you are confident of winning?

Besides, Kerry will be there next week for debate number two and Kerry and Edwards will do sufficient personal campaigning there to put the state in the blue column.

I keep telling everyone ... keep working hard on registration and GOTV ... and it's Kerry in a landslide.

[Supersedeas]

8. Does TNSMI have any financial connection to Ad Industry

What if the most effective and/or cost efficient way to reach some voters in some states is by personal appearance?

Seems like a false dichotomy to me: either a candidate TV advertises or a candidate conceeds?

Sounds like an argument made by someone with a vested interest in TV advertising to me.

[Larkspur]

9. Where's Gephardt?

Wasn't he one of Kerry's top VP candidates? What has Gephardt been doing lately for Kerry in Missouri?

[WI_DEM]

10. Well they could just as quickly start running them again

if things tighten up in Missouri after the election. I do think that Missouri is not looking particularly bright for dems in any race, president, Senate or Governor--but Kerry is not so far back that if it tightens we could start running ads again.

[SoCalDem]

11. Kerry can win without Missouri

http://www.edwardsforprez.com/map.html

[Carolab]

14. hey, is it just me

or do some of these blue states look just a tad big???

[SoCalDem]

15. States are shown in size, based on their population

The "regular" red-state/blue-state map is the one that's misrepresented :)

[Eurotrash]

19. The word is "misunderestimated"

The map you refer to misunderstimates the relation between geographical size and electoral weight.

[Carolab]

12. can't win

yesterday a story said that it seemed obvious that the campaign was in New Jersey because it was "turning" to Bush. How can this be?

[ItsMyParty]

13. I haven't understood what he is doing in MO from the get go

Months ago I remember Kerry about the same polls in Mo an Ohio and very promising. I was just thinking of this today. But he never broke his ass to go to MO much or ever yet everything is always Ohio (which for awhile there looked gone with the wind). Why didn't Kerry ever do a full out for MO comparable to say Ohio, or even Iowa, Wis., Michigan, etc.??? Maybe they just know more about how the politics will shake out, where the dead bodies are, etc. and felt MO was way more of an outside chance. I just don't get it.

[Roy]

16. I repeat... Don't give up on Missouri just yet.... N/T

[sweetheart]

17. show me state?

Wow, what a sad tale, if it is true... the show me state has turned
in to the "bought off" state. They should change their license
plates and cut with any pretense of being honourable.

[Valkyrie55]

18. I live in Missouri

and have my whole life (34 years and counting) and I'll be amazed if Kerry wins here. Although there are pockets of Liberal thought in the state (St. Louis, Kansas City, and Columbia to name a few) the majority of Missouri is rural and I have seen Bush/Cheney signs in front yards probably 10 times more than I've seen Kerry/Edwards signs.
Unfortunately Missouri is by and large conservative and the further south you go in the state the worse it gets. Still I'll keep hoping and of course do my bit by voting for Kerry.

[pstokely]

21. what part of Missouri are you in?

Kerry signs outnumber * in South Kansas City

[adreamer]

23. We'll see...

I live in West St. Louis County, a Very Republican area these days, and Kerry yard signs outnumber b/c signs by at least 2:1. I see way more Kerry bumper stickers around than b/c.

However, I imagine rural and southern Missouri will break heavily for b/c.

Personally, I think recent polls in key states are just being used to set us up for when b/c supposedly "wins" them by 11-12%. I haven't given up all hope yet, but I'm gettin' close.

[RayOfHope]

20. That's not what the head of the MO Kerry camp said

in our conference call last night. He said do NOT believe anything the media says about Kerry leaving MO.

I keep repeating this, but our phone bank results into southwest mo (a repub haven) are extremely close with Kerry ahead most of the time, when in reality one would think it would be shrub by a landslide.

[Fitzovich]

22. I saw

A good deal of Kerry yard signs in areas of St. Louis County where I expected to see * signs just today. I think anything is possible at this point.