Zogby Poll 10/10 Kerry up 49 - 44 Newly Registered Voters

[ruggerson]

Early Indicators Show Kerry Ahead Among Newly Registered Voters (49%-44%

Over all, Dead-Heat Continues, Kerry, 46% - Bush, 45%;

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=881

If this trend continues amongst newly registered voters, it's very good news.

[flowomo]

1. I'm feelin' it.....

big mo all around

[oldsneakers]

18. In Aug N/R Voters were 60-40 Kerry

Just noticed that this is an interactive poll-forget it. One thing that does worry me is the large increase in 'christian' voters that have newly registered. Saw something on C-Span last week about repukes registering christians in droves in the midwest-I hope these registration forms are being checked for fraud by us and hope we are registering enough in the mid-west to overcome this. Frankly this whole thing with repukes and christian registration has a scent of illegality about it.

[txindy]

19. It will only matter if those so-callled 'Christians' are in swing states

Most are probably in red states. Please correct me if I'm wrong. That's been known to happen! ;)

[Hello_Kitty]

34. I think the fundie vote is pretty much tapped out

They've had a concerted registration effort with them for decades now. Maybe they've picked up the 18-22 year olds but that's about it. We've got the registration momentum for sure. I've been canvassing a lot and I'm meeting people in their 40s and 50s who are voting for the first time, for Kerry.

[Cha]

2. Ah, sounds like Zogby is getting some

early "newly registered voters" polling goin' on!

Anyway, Kerry is gaining in his lead..remember in August when Kerry was down a few points?

[Gato Moteado]

3. i have to believe his lead in newly registered voters is....

much bigger than 5%.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

4. Yeah, I was hoping it was much more than that! Is Zogby the only

polling organization polling newly registered?

[BrotherBuzz]

5. I think it is larger

A large population of young adults don't have land line telephones, instead choosing cell phones that are basicly unlisted numbers and Zogby can't reach them. Stealth Kerry voters!

[NMDemDist2]

6. doesn't zogby use internet polling? n/t

[BrotherBuzz]

14. Telephones

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=866
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/index.cfm

Internet? Cripes, how would they ever contact Joe six-pack?

[txindy]

20. Lol! Yes, they would lose that input

Unless they're on one of the other 'internets' we don't have access, too. ;)

[wysi]

22. I was polled...

.. by Zogby (over the internet, but just one of them) in his latest poll.

[kodi]

8. i agree, these folks are flying under the radar & the numbers are massive

if the trends i see from personal experience talking to local folk in georgia, and friends and relatives in pennsylvania, florida, north carolina, new jersey, and california are true nation-wide, kerry is going to surprise the hell out of conventional wisdom and win more easily than any one of the polling companies predicts now.

now, if that happens and kerry gets these votes, the busheviks will be stunned and most likely will declare that kerry stole the election. i fully expect them to scream bloody murder when election results are tallied on november 2.

[Sean Reynolds]

16. Don't believe it......coming from a Howard Dean supporter.

Leading up to the Iowa Caucus we all felt that Dean was down in the polls because the polling companies weren't polling new registered caucus goers. We felt that the Dean team did so well in getting people that had never voted or gone to a caucus before, that he'd win the caucus in the end.

Didn't happen.

So don't believe that there will be a huge 'new' voter turnout, because chances of that happening is small.

[kodi]

25. i would submit that anyone displaying a red hammer and sickle is a fool

Sean, generally I like you and what you post, but I can't fucking believe you posted the red hammer and sickle of Soviet and Chinese communism as a badge of honor.

What are you thinking, that Soviet/Chinese Communism is something proud to be associated with?

I assume you are young or ignorant of 20th century history, and think that displaying a red hammer and sickle is some sort of act of adolescent rebellion.

It’s ignorant, in so many ways. The communist regimes of the 20th century were evil and totalitarian in nature and run by mass murderers who killed countless millions of people and were of such a nature that you yourself would have been put to death for any dissent or call for freedom. In the 20th century millions more innocent people were murdered by the state under Communist regimes than Fascist ones. Yet, had you posted a Nazi swastika it would likely have been removed by the DU moderators.

My dad was wounded in Korea in '51 fighting Red Chinese communists, my uncle was killed there by them in ‘52, and another uncle was killed in Viet Nam in ‘70. So looking at that hammer and sickle sickens me on a site that alleges its fidelity to freedom and human rights.

If you do not understand the difference between Marx's writings on Communism in the Manifesto and its later corruption in the forms of Leninist-Stalinist-Maoist totalitarian communism represented by that hammer and sickle you should start reading Solzhenitsyn as soon as possible.

And if you want to try to debate whether the forms of Communism represented by those obscene symbols were good, I will debate you whenever you wish.

btw: do not confuse a mid-western agrarian state political caucus with a nation-wide presidential election. there is a quantum difference.

[Sean Reynolds]

26. Ignorant? No. I'm a Leninist, I stand for everything he believed.

The hammer and sickle has its base in Lenin's hopes. I'm not a Stalinist, Maoist, or any other communist outside of Lenin. I'm sorry that you find it offensive, but I think I'll keep it.

[kodi]

27. Then you are as I stated. Lenin was just as bad and an enemy of freedom

Apparently you know very little of his murderous rule in the Soviets or you would be ashamed to call yourself one.

[Sean Reynolds]

28. Well I hope you don't favor any US presidents......

Or I'd peg you as a hypocrite!

[kodi]

31. simply put, you have chosen to honor a mass murderer on this site

i haven't.

[Sean Reynolds]

33. You haven't? You supported Clinton, no?

How many people did he kill?

That's what I thought.

[kodi]

35. hahaha! i was an organizer and member of the natural law party until 2000

until gore in 2000 i hadn't voted for a democrat since mcgovern.

try again, you are beginning to amuse me with your fatuousness. apparently you don't spend much time around adults, comrade.

[Sean Reynolds]

36. Ok, so you supported Gore...who was VP under Clinton.

What's the difference?

[kodi]

37. are you a simpleton or what? al gore did not murder millions of kulaks

lenin did.

[Sean Reynolds]

38. No, but he supported the death of how many Iraqis?

How many died under US sanctions when Clinton was president?

[struggle4progress]

39. You might ask yourself just why Wall Street was excitedly reading ...

... Lenin in the mid-1980's.

[jdj]

32. I don't think they will find any evidence of fraud.

And they know we will fight like bloody hell this time.

It will be another civil war, with out any geographical boundaries.

Then there will be no country to be president of.

They better not push it.

[central scrutinizer]

11. it might depend upon how "newly" is defined

Rove claims that the repugs started their registration and GOTV efforts years ago (of course he may be blowing smoke) but if true and "newly" goes back 12 months or so, then maybe the registrations are that close. I think "newly" (the last couple of months kind of "newly") is probably more heavily Kerry.

[joefree1]

7. Then we must be kicking butt because ...

CNN poll: Bush maintains 7-point lead over Gore

October 29, 2000
Web posted at: 12:54 p.m. EST (1754 GMT)

By CNN Polling Director Keating Holland

WASHINGTON (CNN) - GOP presidential candidate Texas Gov. George W. Bush continued to maintain an advantage over Democratic Vice President Al Gore in Sunday's CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll.

Forty-nine percent of respondents said they supported Bush while 42 percent said they would vote for Gore, no change at all from Saturday's poll.

edit ...

The poll results are not predictions, but instead are merely snapshots of who likely voters currently favor.

In the past, the poll has shown Bush with at least 48 percent of support for five consecutive days, and Gore with no more than 43 percent during that same length of time.
More ...
http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/29/tracking.poll/

[Eric J in MN]

9. I would have hoped for 70-30 among newly registered. nt

nt

[ninainsf]

10. Does anyone have any numbers on...

How likely newly registered voters are to actually vote?

[expatriot]

12. This is where GOTV comes in.... and we ID them

people who have to be hit on the head to register to vote are not, for the most part, likely voters. this is where GOTV comes in and also, we "ID" them. If we have id'd them as likely Kerry we will make sure hell and high water they vote. If they are id'd as strong Bush, they drop out of our universe. this is just a simplistic view of basic partisan GOTV efforts.

[Cheswick2.0]

23. all these people didn't register for nothing

they registered specifically to vote for Bush or Kerry. In swing states democrats out registered repugs by a much larger margin that this poll indicates.

[ladybugg33]

13. Where these newly registered voters are located is more important than

their numbers. If they are mostly in states already voting for Kerry it won't matter that much. We need the help in the swing states and even in the red states. I wouldn't write all the red states off.

[debatepro]

15. Ralph Nader

If you look as Ralph Nader numbers went down by one and kerry went up by 1. Hmmm fuzzy math.

[greyXstar]

17. How can it only be 5%???

Haven't we been out-registering Republicans like mad?? What gives?? :crazy:

[Zorra]

24. Exactly what I was thinking. n/t

[Asher]

21. Hoo-ray for Zogby

Didn't Mr. Gallup who runs Gallup polls say something nutty like "Polls show the will of God" or something?

[lovuian]

29. whoo Hoo!!!

:bounce: Lets get to work!!!

[angka]

30. besides

i have a cable modem and a cell phone. this means my phone's not listed. which means i'm never gonna get polled.

how many hundreds of thousands more like me? we'll know after november 3rd...