STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 18 October

[ozymandius]

Monday October 18, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 94
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 15
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 311 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 365 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1061
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 15, 2004

Dow... 9,933.38 +38.93 (+0.39%)
Nasdaq... 1,911.50 +8.48 (+0.45% )
S&P 500... 1,108.20 +4.91 (+0.45%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.05% +0.04 (+0.95%)
Gold future... 420.10 +0.60 (+0.14%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 87.20 Change +0.11 (+0.13%)

Tokyo Stocks Lower; Dollar Falls Vs. Yen

http://www.forbes.com/business/energy/feeds/ap/2004/10/17/ap1594240.html

Tokyo stocks edged lower Monday morning because of concerns about rising oil prices. The U.S. dollar was down against the Japanese yen.

The Nikkei Stock Average of 225 issues was down 21.36 points, or 0.19 percent, at 10,961.59 points at late morning Monday. The Nikkei lost 51.34 points, or 0.47 percent, on Friday.

The dollar bought 109.24 yen at 11 a.m. local time Monday, down 0.40 yen from late Friday in Tokyo but above the 109.17 yen it bought in New York later that day.

Stock prices opened higher as investors welcomed Wall Street's moderate gains Friday, but fell back on continuing concerns that higher oil prices could hurt the global economy.

Crude oil futures for November delivery reached $55.02 a barrel in early Asian trade, up 9 cents from its settlement price on Friday.

...more...

Dollar Near 7-Month Low; Oil Price Threatens Growth

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aVcm63PqXxYc&refer=us

Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar, hovering near a seven- month low, is poised to drop on signs record oil prices are crimping U.S. economic growth, a Bloomberg survey indicates.

Fifty-three percent of the 91 traders, investors and strategists polled Oct. 15 from Tokyo to New York advised selling the dollar against the euro. That's up from 41 percent a week earlier. Twenty-one percent said to buy, and the rest advised holding. The survey also suggested the dollar will decline compared with the yen.

The dollar, which on Oct. 15 dropped to $1.2507 per euro for the first time since March, is being buffeted by waning consumer optimism, a slowdown in manufacturing and a record trade deficit. Demand for the currency will ebb further should oil prices fail to retreat, Samarjit Shankar at Mellon Financial Corp. said.

``Risks are definitely to the downside for the dollar,'' said Shankar, director of global strategy in Boston for the foreign-exchange group at Mellon, which manages $625 billion. ``There is no doubt that the risk is weaker U.S. growth, due to the impact of higher energy prices.''

<snip>

The dollar's slide may accelerate should a U.S. Treasury Department report today show international investors cut purchases of U.S. assets in August, said Lara Rhame, currency strategist in New York at Credit Suisse First Boston. Buying of corporate bonds, stocks, Treasuries and other securities fell to a net $64 billion in July, the lowest in nine months.

...more...

Forex - Major currencies trade within tight ranges ahead of US inflows data

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1098091154-9e32d306-16210

LONDON (AFX) - Major currencies traded within tight ranges as investors preferred to stay on the sidelines ahead of US Treasury capital account data this afternoon

If the data falls below market expectations of 55 bln usd, it is likely to weigh further on the dollar, analysts said

HBOS currency analyst Steve Pearson noted that a net capital inflow in excess of 60 bln usd, alongside positive net equity flows, will be required in order to make a "sensible dollar positive case", given August's 54 bln usd currenct account deficit and net foreign direct investment of around 5 bln usd per month

"This looks a tough double hurdle for the dollar to clear," he said

Friday's flurry of US data caused the dollar to reach seven-month lows against the euro, which briefly breached the 1.25 level. The dollar had initially rallied slightly after robust US retail sales figures on Friday afternoon, but this was soon more than cancelled out by a much weaker than expected New York manufacturing survey, as well as evidence that US consumer confidence had taken a hit in October. Since then, the dollar has recovered slightly, settling below the 1.25 mark against the euro, but remaining at very low levels on caution ahead of today's August capital inflows data. Elsewhere, the yen managed to hold up against the dollar despite oil prices again reaching record highs, with US crude futures rising above 55 usd

...more...

No reports today - just the Treasury capital account data this afternoon.

Great 'toon, Ozy! :D

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

7. Treasury account data now out and not good

9:00am 10/18/04 U.S. CAPITAL FLOWS FROM CENTRAL BANKS $22.8 BLN IN AUG.

9:00am 10/18/04 U.S. AUG CAPITAL FLOWS $59 BLN VS $63.1 BLN IN JULY

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38278.3770833333-823930793&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

U.S. Aug. capital flows $59 bln vs $63.1 bln in July

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Net foreign capital flows into the United States fell to $59 billion in August from a revised $63.1 billion in July, the Treasury Department said Monday. Foreign central bank purchased $22.8 billion in U.S. assets, up from $6.4 billion in July.

dollar losing its glow

Last trade 87.04 Change -0.05 (-0.06%)

[UpInArms]

18. Central banks step up U.S. asset purchases -title misleading

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B5F468120%2D2B79%2D462D%2DA8FA%2D8176E5EA8CD5%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Capital flows into the United States slowed in August, the Treasury Department reported Monday.

Private purchases of U.S. financial assets fell sharply while purchases by foreign central banks increased.

Total net capital inflows fell to $59 billion in August from a revised $63.1 billion in July. In the past 12 months, total net capital inflows totaled $775.5 billion.

<snip>

Foreign purchases of U.S. Treasurys fell to $14.6 billion in August, the lowest since November.

Private net purchases fell to $37.4 billion from $72.9 billion in August. Private foreign individuals and groups sold net $4.4 billion in Treasurys and $2.1 billion in equities. Their holdings of agency bonds grew by $18.6 billion and corporate bond holding rose by $25.4 billion.

...more...

[ozymandius]

14. Deluge of Big Earnings to Dominate

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock investors face a mind-numbing pile of information this week as corporate earnings and economic data pour in, Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) speaks and the presidential election heads toward the homestretch.

Crude oil prices will remain near the top of investors' watch lists after hitting a record $55 a barrel on Friday.

"Unless oil drops dramatically, earnings are probably more of a key driver of the market next week," said John Caldwell, chief investment strategist at McDonald Financial Group. "The market has been dealing with the steady drumbeat of higher energy prices and the big swing would happen, I think, if prices fell unexpectedly."

A slew of companies are scheduled to report quarterly earnings, including nearly half of the 30 companies whose stocks make up the Dow Jones industrial average(^DJI - news).

more...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=2&u=/nm/20041017/bs_nm/column_stocks_outlook_dc&sid=95609869

EDIT: housing starts and CPI due tomorrow

[UpInArms]

2. Is Barbie endangered?

Mattel Third-Quarter Net Falls 5.2% as Raw-Material Costs Rise

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=afsAYscApMgI&refer=us

Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Mattel Inc., the world's largest toymaker, said third-quarter profit fell 5.2 percent as material costs rose and the company introduced new Barbie dolls.

Net income declined to $255.9 million from $270 million. Per- share profit was unchanged at 61 cents as the number of shares outstanding declined. Sales dropped 2.1 percent to $1.67 billion, the El Segundo, California-based company said in a PR Newswire statement.

The cost of plastic resin and other raw materials climbed as crude oil prices rose to the highest in more than 20 years. Chief Executive Robert Eckert, 50, introduced more Barbies after U.S. sales of the line, Mattel's largest, declined the past three years amid competition from MGA Entertainment's Bratz dolls.

...more...

There goes that PPI - cost of production is increasing - sales are falling ...

hmmmm....

Wonder if something is going to finally get the attention of those analysts that are constantly "surprised"?

[UpInArms]

3. Disney lawsuit could ripple through Corporate America

http://www.usatoday.com/money/media/2004-10-18-disney-ovitz-lawsuit_x.htm

excerpt:

Lawyers for Disney shareholders will argue that CEO Michael Eisner and the board — including Ovitz — violated their fiduciary responsibilities. Shareholders allege they failed to properly scrutinize Ovitz's contract in 1995. In 1996, when Ovitz was in over his head, plaintiffs say, Disney compounded the error by letting Ovitz walk away with $140 million in cash and stock.

Disney says the board's actions were fair and reasonable. It says a sweet contract was needed to lure Ovitz from Creative Artists Agency, which he co-founded and whose client list included Madonna, Tom Cruise, Bill Murray, Kevin Costner and David Letterman.

If the court agrees with the plaintiffs, the precedent could enable shareholders of other companies to try to hold directors personally liable if they fail to pay proper attention to operational decisions — particularly, huge compensation deals.

"It could be seismic," says Nell Minow of The Corporate Library. "It's the missing piece. The one group whose complicity (in Enron-era scandals) hasn't been addressed is the board. Absent personal corruption, you almost never see director liability. The Delaware court might say that directors could be liable even without personal corruption. That could affect every corporation in America, including those not incorporated in Delaware."

<snip>

The plaintiff's argument "suggests that the Disney directors failed to exercise any business judgment and failed to make any good-faith attempt to fulfill their fiduciary duties to Disney and its stockholders," Chief Justice E. Norman Veasey wrote. What's more, he wrote, the sheer size of Ovitz's payout "pushes the envelope of judicial respect for the business judgment of directors in making compensation decisions."

...more...

Wouldn't it be nice if the Board of Directors at Enron (remember Wendy Gramm?) had to take responsibility for their decisions and actions?

This article definitely is good reading - had to snip way too much :D

[ozymandius]

10. Just my inference...

If the board of directors is required to take personal responsibility for its actions, this would chip away at the concept of corporate personhood.

I love it. So not only would the corporation, as it exists on paper, take the fall for malfeasance. But so would fall the people who constitute the corporate conscience.

[UpInArms]

11. that was how I read this also

it would definitely be a big step forward for this country to remove that "personhood" label from corporations. They are machines - not people - they have no conscience, cannot die, cannot be imprisoned or punished.

The clerk's footnote on that railroad suit that has been elevated to a legal ruling is utter and complete bullshit.

(if anyone is wondering what I am referring to, go here:

http://reclaimdemocracy.org/personhood/santa_clara_vs_southern_pacific.html

[UpInArms]

4. Ace Joins AIG, Marsh in Ending Fee Plans Targeted by Spitzer

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aiY4LWSWguoc&refer=top_world_news

Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Ace Ltd. will stop paying brokers for steering business its way, becoming the third company to make concessions in the five days since New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer unveiled a probe of the insurance industry.

Ace, a Bermuda-based insurer, said yesterday it would no longer pay incentive fees to brokers. On Oct. 15, American International Group Inc. Chairman Maurice ``Hank'' Greenberg, head of the world's largest insurer, said his company was likely to make a similar decision. That same day, Marsh & McLennan Cos., the insurance brokerage at the center of Spitzer's probe, said it would no longer accept the fees.

<snip>

Brokers such as Marsh, Aon Corp. and Willis Group Holdings Ltd. are typically paid from the premiums charged to their clients, companies, schools or other institutions that need insurance.

At issue in the Spitzer probe are the additional commissions brokers take from insurers -- fees that are based on the volume and profitability of the business they steer to those insurers. The payments are known as contingency fees, placement service agreements or market service agreements.

...more...

Isn't that special about ACE being a Bermuda corporation? These tax cheating corporations should be banned from doing business in our country.

[UpInArms]

26. Record profits for Property &Casualty insurers in H1

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE1B83650%2D7127%2D4390%2D8984%2D65BDF1BA270F%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- U.S. property and casualty insurers made record profits in the first half of 2004 as underwriting and investment performance improved.

The industry, now being investigated by New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer for alleged bid-rigging and illegal payoffs, generated a record $23.5 billion in net income in the first six months of this year, the Insurance Services Office said Monday.

Insurers' surplus -- which includes income and unrealized capital gains on investments -- stood at $370.4 billion at the end of June, up seven percent from a year earlier, according to the ISO, which crunches insurance data for the industry. That would also have been a record if the result wasn't adjusted for inflation.

...more...

[UpInArms]

34. Is Marsh's board responsible for its troubles? (tying in to Disney suit)

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/CNBCTV/Articles/TVReports/P97425.asp

The company is wrestling with its third scandal in just over a year, raising questions about whether board members were doing an adequate job.

By Mary Thompson
10:45 AM EST October 18, 2004

The corporate scandals of the past four years have put corporate boards in the spotlight. That spotlight now turns to Marsh & McLennan's (MMC, news, msgs) board. Since each of the company's three business units has faced criminal or civil charges over the last 13 months, does the company's board share some blame for the troubles?

Corporate governance experts say directors would have to personally profit from wrongdoing at a company or fail to act in good faith to be held liable. That might prove difficult, but Marsh's problems over the last year certainly raise questions about the effectiveness of the board's oversight..

...more...

if they are looking for that "personal profit", they need look no further than to the incestuous relationship of these directors - most of them sit on the boards for their cronies' corporations - that way they can look independent and scratch each others backs at the same time.

[UpInArms]

5. So what's going on with all of the CEO/Director resignations?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38278.3033912037-823922219&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Viacom Inc. (VIA.B) directors and officers have resigned from Blockbuster Inc.'s (BBI) board as previously agreed upon. Viacom is a significant investor in MarketWatch Inc., the publisher of this report.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/marketPulse.asp?doctype=-1&siteid=mktw&mp=1

Odyssey HealthCare in DoJ probe; warns on Q3, 2004 By Ciara Linnane
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Odyssey HealthCare said the Department of Justice has launched a probe of the company under the False Claims Act, and is reviewing payment claims dating from Jan 1, 2000 to the present time. The company said it is cooperating with the probe. The company made the revelation as it announced that CEO David Gasmire is leaving the company, to be replaced by chairman Richard Burnham. "In light of the operational challenges we have experienced, all parties agreed that it was best to take quick action to put us back on a steady track," Burnham said in a statement. The company also warned that third-quarter earnings will come in at about 24 cents a share, 3 cents below the average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call, due to weak admissions and increased competion. For the full year, the company expects earnings of 94 to 96 cents a share, below a prior outlook of $1.03 to $1.05. Shares ended Friday down 3 cents at $16.86.

Seems as though there have been an extraordinary number of exits of late.

[UpInArms]

21. turnover at Sprint

10:31am 10/18/04 NEW HEAD OF SPRINT CONSUMER SOLUTIONS EFFECTIVE MONDAY

10:30am 10/18/04 SPRINT NAMES TIMOTHY KELLY HEAD OF CONSUMER SOLUTIONS

[UpInArms]

40. Maxim Pharmaceuticals to cut 50% of staff, CFO to leave

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38278.5390162037-823948314&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Maxim Pharmaceuticals (MAXM) said Monday that it is implementing a new restructuring plan that includes cutting 50 percent of its workforce, citing the need to finance the regulatory approval process of its leukemia drug Ceplene. The company's Chief Financial Officer Anthony Altig and its Chief Scientific Officer Kurt Gehlsen will be leaving the company as part of the staff cuts. John Prunty, the company's treasurer and controller, has been promoted to chief financial officer. CEO Larry Stambaugh has agreed to take a pay cut this year as part of the plan, the company said.

this one has a weird flavor to it :eyes:

[54anickel]

41. US shares down on loss of revenue, mismanagement. CEO to be replaced.

That's the headline I want to see :evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

6. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood - THE DOW REPORT

THE DOW REPORT
Consumers Are Pulling Back

It looks as if the consumer is pulling back. The chart below is a daily chart of the Morgan Stanley Consumer Index. The Morgan Stanley Consumer Index is designed to measure the performance of consumer-oriented, stable growth industries through price changes in 30 component stocks representing 20 industries. Major industries include beverages, food, pharmaceuticals, tobacco and personal products.

Not only have prices moved below their August 2004 intermediate term lows, but this index has now erased all of its 2004 gains and is now down for the year. In spite of the efforts by the boys at the Federal Reserve this index is telling us that they are losing the battle to keep the consumer spending. Perhaps this is because of the enormous high level of debt that is being carried by the average person on the street today. Or, perhaps the higher commodity prices are also starting to take their toll on the consumer as well. Whatever the reason, this index is telling us that the consumer is beginning to tighten.



-cut-

Now I want to speculate just a bit by trying to look ahead at the next domino that may be about to fall. The consumer is beginning to pull back and as a result the Industrials are now beginning to feel the effect. The next domino that is likely to fall as a result of this trickle down effect will likely be the Transports. With the consumer consuming less the Industrials are beginning to produce less, and with less production will likely soon come less shipping. So, unless the consumer can either find a way to take on more debt or to overcome the higher prices seen in commodities, or whatever his reason for tightening, the Transports might very well be the next domino. It will be very interesting to watch this relationship as it unfolds.

Now I want to show you a new development at Cycles News & Views and to do so I will continue with the Morgan Stanley Consumer Index. The chart below is a weekly chart of this index. The indicator in the top window of this chart is something that I have been working on for a while now. It is my Cycle Turn Indicator or CTI. This indicator is designed not to be your typical oversold and overbought oscillator, but rather a turn indicator. The level of this indicator is irrelevant. It is the turn that we are interested in and this indicator turned down at the September top and by doing so warned us that an intermediate term cycle top had occurred. Notice that this indicator is designed to turn at these intermediate term tops and bottoms and it does a great job.



more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

8. Wall Street set for losses as 3M disappoints

Futures pointed to a lower open for Wall Street stocks as crude oil futures rose above $55 per barrel in pre-market trading amid supply worries while the third-quarter earnings season continued.

-cut-

As the earnings season entered its second week, during which another third of the companies in the S&P 500 index will have reported results, some companies fanned concerns about the rate of earnings growth losing steam among US companies.

The shares of 3M were set to weigh on the Dow industrials after the manufacturing conglomerate reported a third-quarter profit but missed earnings expectations slightly. Shares in 3M lost 3.5 per cent to $75.25 in pre-market trading on the INET platform. Changes in the 3M share price have a disproportionate effect on the Dow as they are among the highest-priced issues on the price-weighted average.

more...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1106&ncid=1106&e=1&u=/ft/20041018/bs_ft/5db0f6b4210411d99db700000e2511c8

[UpInArms]

9. Sinclair Broadcasting stock at $7.04

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?symb=SBGI&siteid=mktw

(just a fyi)

[UpInArms]

12. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

09:17 ET S&P futures vs fair value: -3.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.5. Futures market has been unable to gain any upside traction this morning, as disappointing earnings reports from the likes of MMM, LXK, HAS and MAT have cast a pall on the proceedings... Oil prices are down $0.13 at $54.80, but given the volatility in the oil market these days, the slight downtick can't be considered much of a support for buying interest at this juncture

9:01AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.5.

8:38AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0. Steady action in the futures market, which means expectations for a slightly lower open for the cash market remain intact... Earnings news has failed to impress this morning, and thus, there is some reluctance on the part of buyers ahead of tonight's key earnings report from IBM

8:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. A modestly negative bias in the futures market, which is expected to translate into a modestly negative start for the cash market... Traders, to this point, appear unimpressed by earnings news with discouraging guidance from the likes of 3M (MMM) and Lexmark (LXK) setting the tone

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight and is breaking out below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1432.83 as it remains poised to test the August-September uptrend line crossing near 1413.25. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 7.00 pts. at 1429 as of 5:48 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was lower overnight and is working on a possible inside day as it consolidates above September's low crossing at 1101.60. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below September's low would open the door for a possible test of the 62% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at 1092.90 later this month. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

13. 9:43 EST open and down

Dow 9,885.60 -47.78 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 1,909.22 -2.28 (-0.12%)
S&P 500 1,106.07 -2.13 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.057% +0.004

[ozymandius]

16. some blather for you

Stocks Fall As Oil Climbs Past $55 Mark

NEW YORK - Nervous investors, wondering when surging oil prices will start to fall, pushed stocks lower Monday as a barrel of crude topped $55 per barrel, yet another record.

Wall Street's mood also fell as 3M Co. missed earnings expectations and lowered its full-year outlook, blaming the volatile global economy for lower revenues.

The price of oil has economy watchers worried, as global demand shows no signs of letting up as winter approaches. A barrel of light crude was quoted at $54.69, down 24 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices had surged to $55.33 in pre-opening trading.

Although 3M saw its earnings climb 17 percent in the third quarter, the industrial conglomerate missed Wall Street forecasts by a penny. Investors were further unnerved as the company warned that its full-year results might also miss estimates. 3M tumbled $4.07 to $73.91.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=6&u=/ap/20041018/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street&sid=95609876

How is 3M's report today different from Intel's report last week when analysts said "the numbers are not as bad as they could have been"? Has anyone seen a report to explain the inventory problems that Intel seems to have?

[UpInArms]

15. Merrill analyst predicts 4Q rally and Kerry win

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38278.422025463-823936006&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

Merrill sees Dow up in Q4, then starting long-term drop

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Merrill Lynch senior international market analyst Walter Murphy believes the Dow industrials ($INDU) will surpass its previous 2004 high, potentially reaching a high of 11,000 to 11,500, but that could mark the end of the 2002 to 2004 bull market. He believes there is a high probability that the Dow will lose ground in 2005, marking the first time since the late 1800s that a year ending with the number "5" posts a loss. "Once the anticipated fourth-quarter rally runs its course, it is our opinion that the resulting intermediate peak will lead to a correction that will have long-term, cyclical, implications," Murphy said in a note to clients. Separately, he noted that in election years since 1932, each time the Dow recorded a loss of more than 0.5 percent during October, the incumbent lost the election. With the Dow last down 35 points at 9,898, the blue chip barometer has lost 1.8 percent since the end of September.

[ozymandius]

17. Does anyone else see this logic as just plain silly?

He believes there is a high probability that the Dow will lose ground in 2005, marking the first time since the late 1800s that a year ending with the number "5" posts a loss.

What the hell does this have to do with projections, earnings and the typical economic chaos that shapes Dow averages?

EDIT: I wonder if this news about losses has anything to do with the rash of executive resignations?

[gratuitous]

19. I don't think it's "logic"

Just pointing out a statistical anomaly, like the success of a right-handed batter against a left-handed reliever after the 7th inning in a game where the batter's team is either tied or behind by two runs or less during a night game in September.

It doesn't mean the batter's going to get a hit or the pitcher's going to strike him out, as each confrontation is its own universe; just letting the fan know what the history is.

Does anyone else, however, find it mickle strange that the article mentioned big trouble for an incumbent when there was a 0.5 percent market drop, and Bush is "tied" in the polls when the market has dropped more than double that amount? The poll numbers as reported seem to defy all logic.

[UpInArms]

20. maybe this guy has worn out his lucky socks?

and now all he can do is spew gibberish :eyes:

I personally do think the DOW will get near 11,000 and 11,500 is a freakin' joke. :shrug:

I hope that the Disney suit stops the golden parachutes for that exodus :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

22. Crude eases from $55, but retail gas tops $2/gal

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38278.4321759259-823937244&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Crude futures eased back from the $55-a-barrel level in early New York trading after climbing 3 percent last week, but average retail prices for a gallon or regular unleaded gas topped $2, according to the AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report. November crude is down 18 cents at $54.75 a barrel after a climb to a record high of $55.33 overnight. November unleaded gas is also down 1.04 cents at $1.399 a gallon, but AAA pegged the average retail for regular unleaded at $2.005 a gallon as of Monday.

[UpInArms]

23. 10:42 EST numbers and blather

Dow 9,885.82 -47.56 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 1,910.05 -1.45 (-0.08%)
S&P 500 1,106.68 -1.52 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.068% +0.015

NYSE Volume 307,643,000
Nasdaq Volume 372,898,000

10:30 ET Equities remain on the defensive as the bulk of sector leadership remains negative... The market remain weighed down by the same concerns that dogged it last week - worries about slowing global growth, the impact of higher resource prices, and a sense that the corporate earnings picture has peaked...

Briefing.com continues to contend that this earnings season will be solid - with most companies posting EPS growth of 16%... Q4 (Dec) should be much of the same (+15-16%)... The 16% growth rate does represent a more moderate pace of growth, but still represents respectable year/year bottom-line expansion... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1220/1557. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1190/1398.

10:00 ET Major indices continue to trade near their lows of the day as market internals remain negative... Homebuilding, airline, industrial, and semiconductor are bearing the brunt of the selling as traders continue to take aim at those groups...

Semiconductor itself has suffered from reduced estimates on key players such as Intel (INTC 78.89 -3.51) - by Prudential - and Texas Instruments (TXN 20.78 -0.44) - by Merrill Lynch... A number of areas, though, have found selective buying interest... Networking, biotech, drug, and oil service have moved moderately higher... ..SOX -1.9%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 103/165. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 178/192.

09:45 ET A slightly lower open for the cash market as buyers find few catalysts in crude oil news or earnings... Dow component 3M (MMM 74.00 -3.98) missed the consensus top and bottom-line Q3 (Sept) estimates, and then effectively warned for Q4 (Dec) and FY04...

Other earnings reports were similarly disappointing with Hasbro (HAS 18.00 -0.46), Mattel (MAT 17.29 -0.68), and Lexmark (LXK 78.89 -3.51) falling short on various metrics... As for crude oil, it has reached $55.33/bbl as traders continue to fret over what could be a harsh winter... The combination of both factors has driven the indices modestly lower this morning... ..NYSE Adv/Dec /. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec /.

dollar

Last trade 86.98 Change -0.11 (-0.13%)

Settle 87.09 Settle Time 23:36

Open 87.10 Previous Close 87.09

High 87.24 Low 86.83

Last tick: 2004-10-18 10:15:18 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

24. 11:01 EST numbers (deeper in the red)

Dow 9,862.22 -71.16 (-0.72%)
Nasdaq 1,905.34 -6.16 (-0.32%)
S&P 500 1,104.05 -4.15 (-0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.068% +0.015

NYSE Volume 367,025,000
Nasdaq Volume 437,364,000

[UpInArms]

28. 12:05 EST numbers and blather (recovering nicely)

Dow 9,904.26 -29.12 (-0.29%)
Nasdaq 1,917.86 +6.36 (+0.33%)
S&P 500 1,108.32 +0.12 (+0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.070% +0.017

NYSE Volume 549,353,000
Nasdaq Volume 632,844,000

12:00 ET A handful of earnings misses has kept most buyers away this morning - particularly as more earnings reports await the market after the close... Specifically, IBM (IBM 84.83 -0.02) and Texas Instruments (TXN 20.71 -0.51) will be issuing their Q3 (Sept) earnings results, and expectations ahead of those releases have not been high...

Merrill Lynch cut its Texas Instruments' Q4 (Dec) and FY05 EPS estimates well below Street forecasts - suggesting guidance on the call will not be strong... 3M (MMM 74.05 -3.93) was a major disappointment this morning - falling short on Q3 (Sept) EPS and revenues and then warning for Q4 (Dec) and FY04... Hasbro (HAS 17.55 -0.91), Mattel (MAT 17.51 -0.46), and Lexmark (LXK 80.76 -1.54) were also another spate of bad news with their lackluster earnings reports...

As a result, the market has traded lower due to pronounced selling in hardware, toy, industrial, semiconductor, homebuilding, and airline... The Nasdaq, however, has flirted with the unchanged mark for most of the morning... The Composite has been propped up by buying in networking, software, and biotech... Crude oil has also been a fairly supportive factor, declining 2% to $54.25/bbl, after running higher earlier... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1217/1831. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1263/1566.

11:30AM: Market lifts off its worst levels but shows little signs of wholeheartedly rallying... The Dow (-0.6%) continues to lag the S&P 500 (-0.3%) and Nasdaq (-0.2%) as 3M (MMM 74.06 -3.92) alone shaves off 29 points with its Q3 (Sept) earnings miss... United Technologies (UTX 90.20 -1.47) and Caterpillar (CAT 80.32 -0.77) have also joined 3M in taking the blue chip average lower... Industrial shares continue to be punished by the idea that demand from China is cooling, and that the business cycle has topped out...

The S&P sector itself has dropped 0.8% - posting the largest losses of any of the major industry groups...NYSE Adv/Dec 1067/1916, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1128/1653

11:00AM: A bearish tone continues to persist in stocks as the indices extend their reach into negative territory... The market has been unable to capitalize on the price of crude oil's descent to fresh session lows (down 1% to $54.55/bbl) and instead has been disturbed by discouraging technical developments... The Nasdaq is currently encroaching its 200-day exponential moving average at 1898, and the Dow has fallen below last week's low at 9875...

This movement has not given bulls much incentive to get involved in the market - particularly as earnings from IBM (IBM 84.94 +0.09) and Texas Instruments (TXN 20.63 -0.59) await traders after the close...NYSE Adv/Dec 1231/1668, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1174/1531

[UpInArms]

30. 12:23 EST numbers (all better now!)

Dow 9,939.50 +6.12 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,926.98 +15.48 (+0.81%)
S&P 500 1,112.61 +4.41 (+0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.069% +0.016

NYSE Volume 620,449,000
Nasdaq Volume 703,398,000

[54anickel]

39. Funny how big moves sometimes happen while everyone is out to lunch. n/t

[UpInArms]

25. Fannie Mae CEO seeks to boost subprime lending - ignores scandal within

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38278.4742013889-823941628&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Fannie Mae (FNM) is moving ahead with its strategy to capture more of the subprime lending market, said CEO Franklin Raines. In a speech Monday to a banking conference, Raines announced a three-pronged strategy to ensure lower income consumers have access to affordable mortgages, including better information for consumers and helping trustworthy lenders serve under-served areas. Raines did not comment on the ongoing probe into the company's accounting practices.

[ozymandius]

27. SINCLAIR STOCK MARKET WATCH

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/w?s=SBGI

Sinclair Broadcast Group'A' (NASDAQ NM:SBGI) 11:30

6.79 -0.25 / value change= -3.55%

[ozymandius]

46. Sinclair keeps sinking. Awww....

Last Trade: 6.40
Trade Time: 2:43PM ET
Change: 0.64 (9.09%)
Prev Close: 7.04
Open: 7.01

[ozymandius]

47. little change in 1/2 hour

Last Trade: 6.46
Trade Time: 3:12PM ET
Change: -0.58 (-8.24%)
Prev Close: 7.04
Open: 7.01

[UpInArms]

51. CBS: Sinclair Broadcasting shares decline

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38278.6486805556-823959999&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Shares of Sinclair Broadcasting (SBGI) fell 59 cents, or 8 percent, to $6.45 in Monday trading. Earlier in the day, the company's shares were rated "underweight" by securities firm J.P. Morgan. Sinclair, which owns the largest chain of television stations in the United States, sparked a controversy when it told its stations to broadcast a documentary accusing Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry of betraying American prisoners during the Vietnam War, on Oct. 11.

Sinclair hopefully is losing $$$$ on their nasty partisan destruction game.

All I can say is: Keep pounding away at these freaks of nature!

[ozymandius]

49. It may have found its floor for the day.

Last Trade: 6.46
Trade Time: 3:31PM ET
Change: -0.58 (-8.24%) Prev Close: 7.04
Open: 7.01

[ozymandius]

53. SBGI closing figures

Last Trade: 6.49
Trade Time: 4:00PM ET
Change: -0.55 (-7.81%) Prev Close: 7.04
Open: 7.01

[54anickel]

29. Corporate America seeks alternative investments

http://www.prudentbear.com/randomwalk.asp

According to recent news stories, American businesses aren’t holding up their end of the bargain. The way the bulls have the plan drawn up is that just as consumers slow down their buying of cars, new kitchens and carpet, businesses will step in with hands on hips and checkbooks held high (cue theme from Mighty Mouse) and spend like crazy. Oh sure, capital spending has been on the march for awhile, but folks who watch this sort of thing figure that compared to the profits and cash flow being churned out, businesses generally are “under-investing.”

Or are they?

Based on the corporate tax bill passed this week by the Senate, and slated as a slam dunk for a presidential signature, it looks like corporations have been investing plenty - in lobbyists. It also appears that such an alternative investment will crank out a much higher ROI than building a factory or buying a bunch of noisy machine tools. And that’s what's so great about the New Financial Era (NFE) – it’s as clean and quiet as a new Hummer slipping into three parking spaces at the mall.

For their investment, American manufacturers get a tax rate cut of 3%, which doesn’t sound like much unless you’re talking about 3% on a money market fund, or 3% on a CD that matures before the sun turns into a supernova. But many a corporate treasurer will remind you that a 3% rate cut equates to about a 10% cut in the total tax bill.

However, to qualify you must be a manufacturer who engages in “domestic production.” You know, like the bakery at Kroger's.

If you are surprised that in-store bakers are manufacturers, then your brain is still thinking Old Financial Era Thoughts (OFET). Today, timber companies, farmers and companies that make movies and print newspapers are all manufacturers. Who knew there were so many manufacturing jobs left in America?

more...

[54anickel]

31. Accounting, Accountability, And Liars

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=36910

Dr. Gurram Gopal is Assistant Professor of Business Administration at Elmhurst College, Elmhurst, IL

These are days you'll remember.

- From the album “Our Time In Eden” by 10,000 Maniacs with Natalie Merchant

We are living in memorable times, indeed, even though whether these are times in Eden is open for debate. The New York Times reported last week that the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) granted American companies a six-month reprieve on the deadline to start deducting the value of stock options granted to executives and other employees from their profits. The move will delay the reduction in reported profits for many companies, and may give them more time to lobby Congress to stop the rule from taking effect at all. It went on to report that FASB, “under pressure from companies and the staff of the Securities and Exchange Commission, accepted the delay on a 5-to-2 vote, with the dissenters pushing for an extension that would have allowed many companies to put off listing options as expenses even longer.” According to The New York Times the S.E.C. was concerned that corporate accountants would be overloaded if they had to put the rule into practice, while also coping with changes in annual audits required by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. Putting aside the fact that perhaps overloaded accountants could contribute to higher productivity, an interesting question is ‘To whom is FASB accountable?’

Thanks to the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the fiscal policies of the government we are now facing an accumulated federal debt of $7.429 Trillion dollars, an increase of $1.755 trillion or 31% over the past four years. The total debt amounts to more than $25,000 for every adult and child in the country. It has to be acknowledged that there is a (non-zero) probability that the current deficit spending and the “trickle down” economics will not lead to increased future revenues for the government and lower the deficits. Instead it could lead to one or more of the following- significantly higher interest rates , a significantly lower dollar, and a significant drop in US personal incomes. Dallas Fed Governor Robert McTeer indicated as much recently. Should this situation unfold, it will not be a pretty sight, as all those garments and electronics that are made in Asia will be more expensive. It will be even more expensive for folks to say “charge it” to everything. Who is held accountable if such a disastrous scenario unfolds? Elected administration officials, Senators and Representatives might not win when they run for reelection, but they can turn around and get those high paying lobbying positions. The Fed officials will continue doing their job; Alan Greenspan would collect Social Security and retire happily.

This leads me to make a proposal that not only solves the above accountability issue, but also takes care of the unemployment problem at the same time. The idea is not entirely my own: Senator Kerry deserves part of the credit. While discussing the health care situation in America in the third presidential debate he said, “we give you broader competition to allow you to buy in to the same health care plan that senators and congressmen give themselves. If it's good enough for us, it's good enough for every American. I believe that your health care is just as important as any politician in Washington, D.C.” Why stop at just health care? Let us expand the Senate and House so that every American is a member of one of the two houses. This immediately solves the unemployment problem. Every citizen can take home a cool $158,100 this year, with cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA) increases every year (2.5% for the upcoming year). Everyone gets the same healthcare options, and the same retirement benefits. If this increases the deficit some more, what of it? This way everyone gets to join in the fun while it lasts.

more...

[54anickel]

32. Fed Debates Policy for Post-Greenspan Era

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6521224&pageNumber=0

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Battle lines are drawn at the Federal Reserve between those who favor formal inflation goals and those who don't, and the debate is heating up ahead of the coming retirement of Chairman Alan Greenspan.

Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson and Board Governor Ben Bernanke staked out opposing positions on price targets at a St. Louis Fed bank conference earlier this month.

Bernanke is for targeting and Ferguson -- joined on Friday by Governor Donald Kohn -- is against.

"When central banks are not tightly focused on achieving a specific objective ... policy-makers may be granted a degree of discretion and can take account of the entire distribution of potential economic outcomes and their effects," Kohn told a conference in Germany.

Since Greenspan also prefers flexibility, there is little chance of a change under his watch, which is due to end Jan. 31, 2006, when his board term expires.

more...

[54anickel]

33. Feds Offer Housing Assistance To Renters

http://realtytimes.com/rtcpages/20041015_fedassistance.htm

For those who find themselves using HUD Section 8 housing choice vouchers, homeownership is not as far away as you may think. The Homeownership Voucher Program enables first-time homebuyers in low-income brackets to purchase a house using HUD Section 8 funding to help with the payment and some housing expenses.

The federal program is administered through local Public Housing Authorities. Meanwhile, not all PHAs participate in the program, however, thousands of new homeowners across the country enjoy the benefits of homeownership because of this program.

Housing vouchers can only be obtained by current holders of HUD rental vouchers. If you want to take advantage of this program, you have to apply via HUD for rental voucher assistance before following the process of using that voucher to buy a home. The voucher can be used to subsidize the monthly payment and housing expenses -- the amount it will subsidize is up to 70 percent of such payment, according to the HUD website.

The tenant-buyer must find the house, which must undergo an initial housing quality standards inspection conducted by the PHA, as well as a home inspection. The good news for families that live in expensive areas, unlike the rental voucher -- you don't have to buy a house in the jurisdiction of the PHA.

Here are some other requirements of the program:

more...

[amandabeech]

55. I guess Repug home builders won one against the no welfare crowd.

Frankly, I'm a little shocked here.

[54anickel]

35. ConocoPhillips economist sees prices staying high

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh87552_2004-10-14_23-50-20_n14211832_newsml

HOUSTON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The chief economist for oil major ConocoPhillips (COP.N: Quote, Profile, Research) told a business audience on Thursday that oil prices are likely to stay high because of a "permanent structural change" in the industry.
"I believe prices are likely to remain significantly higher than they were in the '90s due to continued geopolitical risk and also the higher replacement costs for reserves," said Marianne Kah, speaking to the Greater Houston Partnership chamber of commerce group.

Kah, who declined to be interviewed by Reuters afterward, did not make a price prediction, though she noted that analysts now estimate the cost of finding new oil reserves above $30 per barrel.

"I view it as a permanent structural change and implies we will be in a higher-cost environment," said Kah, who added that the industry should consider vast increases in research spending to make remaining oil easier to get.

more...


http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=atV3kHLaG.lA&refer=us
Chicago Board of Trade's Dan Says Oil May Rise to $75 a Barrel

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil prices, which rose to a record $55 a barrel in New York on Friday, may increase further and peak at $75 a barrel, said Bernard Dan, President of the Chicago Board of Trade, the second-biggest U.S. futures market.

``Given that some production is going on around the world, I can't see it much higher than $75 unless there are disruptions in supply lines,'' Dan said on Publishing & Broadcasting Ltd.'s Nine Network's Business Sunday program in Sydney. ''I think that the U.S. economy is strong enough to absorb that.''

Crude oil for November delivery on Friday closed at $54.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after reaching $55 during the day, the highest since futures began in 1983. Oil in New York has surged 26 percent in the past month.

Futures were boosted by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who said oil isn't high enough to slow expansion as much as in prior oil shocks. High oil prices helped push the U.S. economy into recession in the 1970s and 80s, and caused demand to plunge by 19 percent between 1978 and 1983, according to the Energy Department.

While a rise to $75 sounded significant, the majority of oil traders and consumers had ``priced in that sort of range and while it may do some damage in terms of the economy and may be reflected in our equity market, I don't think it's going to be at a level where it's catastrophic,'' Dan told Business Sunday. It's clear though that rising energy prices are creating concern in U.S. equity markets, he said.

more...

WTF, was Greenspin's remarks taken as a wink, wink, nod, nod to the markets that they can go for broke?

[54anickel]

36. Harmony Gold Bids for Gold Fields

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/041018/minerals_goldfields_harmony_1.html

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africa's Harmony Gold has made an unsolicited 52.9 billion rand ($8.2 billion) bid to take over bigger domestic rival Gold Fields to create the world's biggest gold producer, it said on Monday.

snip>

Analysts said the proposed transaction could scupper the Iamgold merger.

On Friday, shares in Canada's Iamgold fell in busy dealings on renewed rumors that its planned merger with Gold Fields could be derailed by disgruntled shareholder Norilsk.

"Quite neatly it could resolve the problems between Gold Fields and Norilsk, because the relationship there seems to have soured since Gold Fields launched its bid for Iamgold. If this deal goes through, the Iamgold deal is off," said Charles Kernot, an analyst at Seymour Pierce in London.

more...

[54anickel]

42. Why a Russian firm eyes gold

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3752380.stm


snip>

The company's interest in South Africa stems from its acquisition of a 20% stake in Gold Fields in March this year.

Analysts say Norilsk's foreign expansion may be a strategy aimed at shifting its assets out of Russia.

There is speculation that Mr Potanin, one of Russia's five richest men, may have been unnerved by Moscow's recent offensive against oil giant Yukos, which now looks likely to be forced into selling some key assets in order to settle a multi-billion dollar tax bill.

Harmony's merger with Gold Fields would conveniently enable many of Norilsk's resources to be moved way out of Mr Putin's grasp, observers say.

Trend

It would not be the first time that Russian assets have been moved abroad.

There has been a flurry of such investments since the confrontation between the Kremlin and Yukos, which some believe is part of a campaign to bring national resources back under Kremlin control.

more...

[54anickel]

37. Report: Housing Industry Set for Trouble

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6521843

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Homebuilders are set for trouble ahead, with next year's earnings from four of the leading housing companies set to run lower than Wall Street expects, according to a hedge fund manager quoted in the latest edition of Barron's.
Doug Kass, of hedge fund Seabreeze Partners, cites recent disappointing news from Pulte Homes as clear warning of trouble ahead for the entire industry.

Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) warned on Oct. 4 that third-quarter earnings from continuing operations would fall short of its earlier forecast, saying it had been forced to roll back some price increases in the booming Las Vegas housing market.

Kass also cited as a big negative the rise of speculation of the housing industry. He contended that the cracks in the housing market are apt to surface in a hurry, and likely to spread rapidly, from one market to the next.

more...

[KoKo]

48. Reuters: U.S.Home Buider Optimism Grew in October to Strongest Level.

:D "Bush's World" strikes again. (can you believe they have both of these articles on the same page?)

So what are we supposed to do with these "opposite" bits of info?:crazy:
------------------------------------------

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. home builder optimism grew in October to its strongest level in 2004 on low mortgage rates and heavy traffic of potential buyers, rebounding from a decline in September, an industry report said on Monday.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said its housing index, a measure of builder sentiment about sales and buyer traffic, was at 72 in October from September's downwardly revised figure of 67.

An index reading above 50 indicates more builders consider sales conditions good rather than poor.

The latest reading of the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, considered a barometer for future housing activity, equaled to the level set in the same year-earlier month.

Home developers appeared confident that the U.S. housing market will set another record year in new home sales in 2004. "Most builders are looking forward to a healthy marketplace moving into 2005," David Seiders, the group's chief economist, said in a statement.

Historically low borrowing cost has remained the key factor driving robust home sales, according to Seiders and other analysts.

Average interest rates on 30-year fixed-rated mortgages have been running below 6 percent, and on one-year adjustable-rate rates have been running near 4 percent since early August, according to Freddie Mac.
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=KRMKWRSZIVBNECRBAEZSFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=6532777

[54anickel]

38. The bubbling up of Austrian analyses

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/7e056be2-20a1-11d9-af19-00000e2511c8.html

snip>

* A fair number of my libertarian friends, the more eccentric ones, that is, have for years described their economics theories as "Austrian". That means they subscribe to a set of analyses based on the works of Ludwig Von Mises and Frederick Hayek, along with their colleagues and successors. The Austrians were pretty much eclipsed from public attention by the Keynesians, the Chicago monetarists and, of course, the Marxists from the 1950s to the 1970s. It was only with the revival of market economics in the 1980s that the Austrians' work was treated as anything other than a joke.

The first real victory for the Austrians came with the collapse of communist regimes, something predicted by them and by Ronald Reagan, who had been mocked by mainstream thinkers for many of the same reasons. Reagan made the Austrians' case that market economics was the basis for political freedom, which became one of the tenets of the Clinton administration's foreign policy - uncredited, of course.

However, "serious" monetary economists still acted as if the real work was to be done by the quantitative analysts and bond desk jockeys at the Federal Reserve. The Austrians might be good enough propagandists for the unwashed in the Third World but what did they know about the real world of managing the US and global economies?

In Wall Street, though, the Austrian theory of the business cycle began to make its way into speculators' thinking. In the words of Roger Garrison, a contemporary Austrian economist: "The Austrian theory is a recognition that an extra-market force can initiate an artificial, or unsustainable, economic boom. The money-induced boom contains the seeds of its own undoing: the upturn, by the logic of the market forces set in motion, will be followed by a downturn . . . forMises and Hayek, monetary expansion engenders a boom, which eventually leads to a bust."

The problem with any official recognition of this is that it implies that the Federal Reserve, and its chairman Alan Greenspan, could be capable of error. That is just what the "Austrians" say, sometimes without apology.

more...

[54anickel]

43. 1:40 numbers Blatherers are running a bit behind

Dow 9,930.21 -3.17 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 1,928.04 +16.54 (+0.87%)
S&P 500 1,112.13 +3.93 (+0.35%)
10-yr Bond 4.074% +0.021
30-yr Bond 4.863% +0.014
NYSE Volume 824,790,000
Nasdaq Volume 910,481,000

12:30PM: Market stages a mid-day recovery effort, fueled by a drop in crude oil prices over the past hour... The commodity has dipped nearly 2% and is trading around the $54.10/bbl level - its lowest price this session... Traders have taken profits from oil's run to new record highs earlier today - in the absence of substantial news items... Other than that, the afternoon's developments have been few and far between and have only accented the weak trading conditions... Volume has run at a modest pace, and breadth figures have been mixed at the NYSE and Nasdaq...NYSE Adv/Dec 1382/1702, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1500/1383

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1762 (52%) 1714 (54%)
Declines 1424 (42%) 1248 (39%)
Unchanged 144 (4%) 161 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 405 (52%) 689 (78%)
Down Vol* 362 (46%) 174 (19%)
Unch. Vol* 10 (1%) 10 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 98 62
New Lo's 42 56

[ozymandius]

44. 2:51 numbers

Dow 9,945.70 +12.32 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,932.76 +21.26 (+1.11%)
S&P 500 1,113.84 +5.64 (+0.51%)
10-Yr Bond 4.057% +0.004
NYSE Volume 1,019,821,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,122,126,000

[ozymandius]

45. and the relative blather

U.S. stocks trade mixed; Nasdaq pulls ahead

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Blue chips traded lower Monday on weaker-than-expected earnings out of 3M and the Nasdaq gained on modest strength in technology shares in a session marked by a retreat in oil prices from record highs.

-cut-

Within the Dow, 3M was the biggest percentage decliner, sliding nearly 6 percent on the back of its earnings miss and the profit warning it issued for the fourth quarter.

Oil, currencies, gold, bonds

Investors pulled crude-oil prices lower after OPEC said its output in September was 30.1 million barrels per day -- its highest level since the 1970s, according to Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Alaron Trading. The November crude contract was down $1.18, or 2.1 percent, at $53.75 after climbing to a new high of $55.33 overnight.

On the currency markets, the dollar fell against the euro and held its own against the yen amid not only the price of oil but data that showed foreign investors curbed their consumption of U.S. assets in August, heightening concerns about the nation's trade deficit.

more...

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041018/cf4d3b437c8034fbd546f3b4dd4b9d46_1.html

[ozymandius]

50. 3:49 numbers

Dow 9,948.28 +14.90 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,932.44 +20.94 (+1.10%)
S&P 500 1,113.03 +4.83 (+0.44%)
10-Yr Bond 4.053% 0.00
NYSE Volume 1,260,906,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,370,932,000

[ozymandius]

52. And at the close...

Dow 9,956.24 +22.86 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq 1,936.52 +25.02 (+1.31%)
S&P 500 1,113.97 +5.77 (+0.52%)
10-Yr Bond 4.053% 0.00
NYSE Volume 1,364,471,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,480,049,000

and some older blather...

U.S. stock gains accelerate in final stretch

Monday October 18, 3:27 pm ET
By Mark Cotton


NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks gained ground in the final hour of trading Monday as a retreat in oil prices from record highs took some of the sting off weaker-than-expected earnings from 3M.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI - News) was last up 13 points, at 9,946, reclaiming all the ground lost as the blue-chip barometer touched an early low of 9,861.63.

-cut-

Oil, currencies, gold, bonds

Crude-oil prices closed under $54 a barrel in New York following a 3 percent climb last week.

-cut-

The November crude contract closed out the session, down $1.26, or 2.3 percent, at $53.67 after climbing to a new high of $55.33 overnight.

On the currency markets, the dollar fell against the euro and held its own against the yen amid not only the price of oil but data that showed foreign investors curbed their consumption of U.S. assets in August, heightening concerns about the nation's trade deficit.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041018/0a223b3fa69aab45e16b6c27e82a7274_1.html

[UpInArms]

54. After the Bell - couple of items

HUH?

4:09pm 10/18/04 TEXAS INSTRUMENTS SHARES HALTED IN AFTER-HOURS TRADE

IBM Report

4:16pm 10/18/04 IBM Q3 GLOBAL SERVICES REV UP 10% TO $11.4B

4:13pm 10/18/04 IBM SAYS DEBT TOTALED $22B VS YEAR-END 2003

4:13pm 10/18/04 IBM SAYS ENDED Q3 WITH $9.7B CASH ON HAND

4:10pm 10/18/04 IBM CEO SAYS Q3 ONE OF STRONGEST IN RECENT YEARS

4:08pm 10/18/04 IBM Q3 EARNS $1.17 EXCLUDING PENSION CHARGE

4:08pm 10/18/04 IBM Q3 EARNS $1.17 EXCLUDING PENSION CHARGE


Kraft Report

4:13pm 10/18/04 KRAFT FY04 FIRST CALL EPS $1.87/SHR

4:12pm 10/18/04 KRAFT Q3 FIRST CALL EPS 45C

4:13pm 10/18/04 KRAFT Q3 FIRST CALL REV ESTIMATE $7.80B

4:12pm 10/18/04 KRAFT SEES FY05 CHARGES 5-7C

4:10pm 10/18/04 KRAFT CUTS FY04 EPS OUTLOOK TO $1.56-$1.60/SHR

4:11pm 10/18/04 KRAFT SEES FY04 AFTER-TAX CHARGES 30C

4:09pm 10/18/04 KRAFT Q3 REV $7.83B VS. $7.48B


Wonder how big that IBM pension shortfall is?

What's up with TI?

Kraft's report should definitely leave a bruise.

See you all tomorrow! :hi:

[54anickel]

56. Texas Instruments' Outlook Not So Bright

http://www.thestreet.com/tech/billsnyder/10188546.html

Texas Instruments (TXN:Nasdaq - news - research) beat Wall Street's consensus for third-quarter earnings by 5 cents a share, the chipmaker announced after the closing bell on Monday.

However, the company's expectations for the fourth quarter were not as sanguine, as revenue at the high end of the company's forecasted range will barely touch the current analysts' estimates.

Third-quarter revenue was $3.25 billion, a year-over-year increase of 28%. Including a tax benefit, the company earned $563 million, or 32 cents a share. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call were expecting a profit of 27 cents a share on sales of $3.16 billion.

A year ago, the company earned $447 million, or 25 cents a diluted share, on revenue of $2.53 billion.