Looks like Edwards got more of a bounce from Iowa than Obama

[stevenleser]

http://www.opednews.com/articles/genera_scorrick_080106_rasmussen_surprise_21_21.htm

According to the latest Rasmussen Reports numbers, the anticipated Obama national bounce seems, instead, to be pointing John Edwards's way. The latest Rasmussen Daily Democratic Presidential tracking polls show that as of 1/6/2008, John Edwards has increased his percentage of likely US voters by +9 percentage points from 14% to 23%. This compares to Hillary Clinton's loss of -7 percentage points in the same period from 43% to 36% and Barack Obama's +1 point increase during the same period from 24% to 25%.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


Rasmussen Reports Daily Democratic Candidates (1/6/08)

click here

Date Clinton Obama Edwards

1/6/08 36% 25% 23%
1/5/08 38% 25% 20%
1/4/08 38% 26% 18%
1/3/08 41% 24% 17%
12/31/07-1/2/08 No polling - New Year's Holiday
12/30/07 42% 23% 16%
12/29/07 43% 24% 14%

[Sarah Ibarruri]

1. I think corporations, polls and the media are praying John Edwards doesn't get the nomination....

.. and they're working to that end. However, I believe he will steadily grow until he will get the nomination.

[whatdoyouthink]

2. I hope they go way up

But polls Suck all-together

I think its going to be closer (like Iowa) then we think

And not sure in what order ether

But here is Hopeing Edwards 08

[Digit]

3. I see the trend indicates Clinton's numbers are dropping,

Obama's are staying the same, and John Edwards is gaining ground.

That is excellent!
:applause:

[existentialist]

4. Edward's bounce

1) He needed a bounce more than Obama.


2) Is it possible that the polling also reflects the New Hampshire Democratic debate?

[adnelson60087]

7. If it was released today (Sunday)

it probably doesn't reflect the Saturday night debate. That will probably show up in the Tuesday election data though.

[bemildred]

5. Good. nt

[ihavenobias]

6. Is this getting any attention?

At this point, I'd have to say it's not, because today all I see is headlines and talk about how far ahead Obama and Hillary are in New Hampshire.

I realize that's obviously relevant, but it should be kept in the context of the bigger picture.

[Lindsey]

8. I'm watching the repeat tonight and John is EXCELLENT!!!!!!!!!!!! N/T

[balantz]

9. John says with conviction that he won't quit.

Despite the media blackout he is rising nationally. I take it from this fact that people nationwide are seeing through the sham, and probably supporting him all the more for it. I think this will backfire in the medias' face as word of the falsity of the media is surely spreading like wildfire now. If it doesn't help him win N.H. because of the enthusiasm of Obama spilling over from Iowa, it will probably show up soon, at least in time for Super Tuesday.

[red2blue]

10. He is a fighter

That why just sent another $250 to the EDWARDS campaign. I was going to send $200 but $50 bucks more won't break me :).

BTW my retired mom send another $100 today!

[balantz]

11. Thank you and everyone so much for supporting John's campaign.

I am currently in a place in my life where poverty pretty much reigns and am sad and frustrated that I can't donate to his campaign. When things get better I will.

:hi:

[FogerRox]

15. "thru the convention" I heard him say it @ Keane NH sunday afternoon

[balantz]

16. Good news!

Fight on John. I pray the tide will continue to turn.

[info being]

12. I GET IT!!!

Edwards is taking out Hillary because that is the best way to take her votes as his own! People aren't going to say, "John is right about Hillary, I'm voting for Obama."

[FogerRox]

13. is that the national poll that has NOTHING to do with NH ?

And we all should know that Rass's national polls are not done as well as his state level


A national poll cannot show an Iowa bounce effect in NH, impossible.


Traditionally the Winner in Iowa gets a bounce about 2/3rds of the time. The problem this year is that there only 4 days bewteen Iowa & NH, not 8. That muddies up the environment in which all polls are done during the 4 days.

As of sunday night, the only poll I have seen that shows a significant bounce for the winner in Iowa, is here
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2008/01/obama_at_39_mccain_at_32_in_ne.html


Its difficult to measure any bounce in this 4 day window. It may be impossible. We dont know, there has never been this short of an interval between Iowa and NH.

It may be that any bounce Obama gets going into NH is small and fleeting, which explains why the bounce is hard to measure. Which may suggest that come tuesday, there will be no bounce reflected in the NH Primary.

Its also clear that all of the polls done in NH between Thursday and Tuesday are all over the place. This further muddies the picture.

It maybe that the Iowa bounce and what actually happens on tuesday are not pollable.
polls.

[balantz]

14. Good points.

[jazzjunkysue]

17. 9 points in a week. Just a couple more of that, and it's all over. n/t.