The idea that Rand Paul’s victory heralds an imminent Tea Party wave soon to sweep the country makes a great deal of sense if you’ve watched the proceedings unfold on television. But it doesn’t make nearly as much sense if you’ve been in Kentucky these last few days. Here, the GOP primary has been nearly invisible. You have to hunt to find a “Rand Paul’’ or “Trey Grayson’’ sign. Television ads are sparse, owing to Kentucky’s relatively expensive media market, which includes Nashville and Cincinnati. Independents and Democrats were barred from the closed primary, so they never tuned in. In Louisville and Lexington, the Senate primaries took a backseat to the mayoral race. In smaller towns and rural areas, they were eclipsed by patronage-producing local offices, like county judge and sheriff.
There was certainly activity geared toward the GOP primary. But the Rand Paul rallies I attended in mid-sized cities like Paducah and Bowling Green drew crowds of only 100 or so, and they were far more subdued than the angry Tea Party masses portrayed on cable television. Grayson’s crowds were even smaller. What was most notable about a race that was captivating the national media was how little it seemed to penetrate the consciousness of most Kentuckians. It was a big deal to a small group of energized Republicans. But more Democrats voted (about 500,000) than Republicans (about 350,000).
The disparity between the media’s expectation and the reality on the ground was a source of no small amusement for Kentucky’s political veterans. “We’re all for having you here to cover the Tea Party,’’ a Democratic consultant genially explained. “Having y’all spend your money helps the tax base.’’
Paul’s win is significant, and a high-water mark for the Tea Party. Unlike Doug Hoffman, who embraced the label in an upstate New York House election last November and lost, or Scott Brown, who won a Senate seat with help from Tea Party activists and then turned his back on them, Rand Paul embraced the Tea Party and won — and he’s not going to abandon it. Paul has established that the Tea Party can be a disruptive force. In Kentucky, as elsewhere, the Republican establishment is having fits. But whether Paul or any other candidate can carry a general election remains an open question. Until that happens, the notion that Paul’s victory portends a Tea Party wave is still cable news hype.
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2010/05/20/kentucky_primary_hype_tempest_in_a_tea_party/