The Redistricting Bump Goes To November's Winners

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Republican Wave Could Have A Ripple Effect

"When you start to look at it state by state, if there's a big Republican wave election in November, the advantage for the Republicans in the redistricting would be fairly dramatic," says Tim Storey, senior fellow at the National Conference of State Legislatures. "They could find that they have almost unilateral authority to draw about 160 U.S. House seats."

That Republican wave is looking more and more likely. A recent study by Curtis Gans, the director of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate at American University, shows that Republicans are already showing up to the polls in greater numbers than ever before.

"The turnout gap is 4 million people," Gans tells Raz. "It is the first time since 1930 that Republican turnout has exceeded Democratic."

While Republican voters are turning out in historically high numbers, Democrats are hitting historic lows.

"I think the critical issue is not how much the Republicans exceed it, but the fact that the Democratic turnout for statewide midterm primaries was the lowest ever," Gans says. "I think the real story at this point is the lukewarm feelings that the Democrats, or people who are Democratic leaning, have for their party."

This lack of enthusiasm could have a lasting effect on congressional politics for a decade to come.
NPR