Newsweek’s B.S. on the “Bounce” - Alterman

[dArKeR]

How silly/irresponsible is Newsweek?  Its reporters write,

Coming out of the Democratic National Convention in Boston, Sen. John Kerry now holds a seven-point lead over President George W. Bush (49 percent to 42 percent) in a three-way race with independent Ralph Nader (3 percent), according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll.  The poll was taken over two nights, both before and after Kerry's acceptance speech. Respondents who were queried after Kerry's Thursday night speech gave the Democrat a ten-point lead over Bush.

They go on to say,

Kerry’s four-point “bounce” is the smallest in the history of the NEWSWEEK poll. There are several factors that may have contributed to the limited surge, including the timing of the poll.
...
On Thursday, Kerry had just a two-point lead over Bush (47 percent to 45 percent), suggesting that his Friday night speech had a significant impact.

Hello, just how in the world do you expect to measure a “bounce” if you do half of your poll before the candidate makes his speech?

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/3449870/

[MidwestTransplant]

1. Bush will have 0 bounce and probably negative IMO

[ugarte]

2. Agreed

The lines in this election are drawn, people's minds made up. I personally do not know any undecided voters.

Turnout is everything.

[NWHarkness]

3. I agree

I just have a gut feeling that the GOP convention is going to turn into a boondoggle.

[auburngrad82]

4. Bounce

Most "experts" didn't expect a bounce because Kerry already has one of the highest ratings of a non-incumbent presidential candidate in history and because most people have already made up their minds.

That being said, Kerry has polled above Bush since about April so let's hope he can hold onto the lead.

[Beetwasher]

5. Bingo!

The reason the bounce was so "modest" was he didn't have much to bounce up to...Most challengers are usually like 10-15-20 points behind before their convention and the convention bounces them up like 15 points to make the race close...When reporters and commentators talk about the average bounce, they are NOT taking into account that Kerry was ALREADY ahead and it was actually almost impossible for him to have a bigger bounce than he did...The sick thing is, that most commentators and reporters KNOW THIS and yet they peddle the bullshit anyway...The media bias has never been more clear...

[EST]

6. Bounce?

Am I the only paranoid observer seeing the dark cloud of evil rising around us? This suffocating atmosphere is not the beginning of the end of America; it's the final groan as we head into the next dark ages, the real thousand year reich. The 'Demcon bounce that never was' was swallowed up by the "news" coverage as everyone who wanted to watch any portion of the show headed over to their favorite cable channel to get their righteous egos massaged by Fox and its clones on all channels except for CSPAN, which attempts to be balanced so is only half FOX, at best.
Add to that the trumped-up terror threat, the staged capture of a terrorist in Pakistan, the hidden moves by the Bushits to restrict and trample on citizen's rights, the whitewash of Sibel Edmonds' warnings by the 9/11 commission, and on, and on, and on.
Then there is Zell and 'Ol Joe, who were democrats in name only, showing up in their true colors. Take all this in light of the fact that the official policy of this administration is to lie at any turn because the only truth is the consistency of the story you tell, witness the OSI and D5E.
News reporters that don't report the news and simply pound on the echo chambers keep us numb, trying to sort through the crud for any jem of true reality.
There is no way that I can see this being a real election: it's just a way to give us something to play at to keep too much crap from bubbling up and attracting attention. I will keep fighting--nothing to lose. Sure feels like defending our rear as we are forced to beat a strategic retreat.