WP: Political Victory: From Here to Maternity

[Southpaw Bookworm]

An interesting bit of food for throught. I'm not sure what to make of it though.

What's the difference between the protesters outside the Republican convention and the delegates inside? There are many, of course, but one will ultimately skew American politics and the culture wars in the Republicans' favor, regardless of who has God or reason on her side. It's the divide between who is having children and who isn't.

Over the past decade, fertility rates among all major American ethnic groups have either remained low or fallen dramatically. Between 1990 and 2002 fertility declined 14 percent among Mexican Americans and 24 percent among Puerto Ricans. African Americans, according to the National Center for Health Statistics, now have a lower average fertility rate than whites, and they are no longer producing enough children to replace their population. But one big difference in fertility rates remains: Conservative, religiously minded Americans are putting far more of their genes into the future than their liberal, secular counterparts.

...snip...

In states where Bush won a popular majority in 2000, the average woman bears 2.11 children in her lifetime -- which is enough to replace the population. In states where Gore won a majority of votes in 2000, the average woman bears 1.89 children, which is not enough to avoid population decline. Indeed, if the Gore states seceded from the Bush states and formed a new nation, it would have the same fertility rate, and the same rapidly aging population, as France -- that bastion of "old Europe."

If Gore's America (and presumably John Kerry's) is reproducing at a slower pace than Bush's America, what does this imply for the future? Well, as the comedian Dick Cavett remarked, "If your parents never had children, chances are you won't either." When secular-minded Americans decide to have few if any children, they unwittingly give a strong evolutionary advantage to the other side of the culture divide. Sure, some children who grow up in fundamentalist families will become secularists, and vice versa. But most people, particularly if they have children, wind up with pretty much the same religious and political orientations as their parents. If "Metros" don't start having more children, America's future is "Retro."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A54700-2004Sep1.html

[bemildred]

1. Simplistic bullshit. nt

[Southpaw Bookworm]

2. From a man, no less.

Hi, ho, back in the kitchen we go ...

[bemildred]

3. Yup, a womans duty is to have many children, for the good of the race.

Only in the past it has been the little colored people that were
going to take over; here it's the fundies. I had not realized that
religious fundamentalism and Republicanism were genetically
transmitted.

[hlthe2b]

4. Ridiculous-- ignores every documented demographic trend...

based on immigration and race/ethnicity. Declines in fertility among certain race and ethnic groups does not necessarily translate into absolute decreases in birth rates impacting political trends, given these groups had higher birth rates to begin with and are both increasing as a group through immigration and domestic migration from state to state.

Not buying it..... I'd like to see the actual study, but it does seem to be dramatically flawed and simplistic.