It's Time to Worry About the North Caucasus

[bemildred]

The shock of the horror of Beslan
will linger for a long time, but the
local repercussions are only just
beginning. It is time to start
paying serious attention to the
North Caucasus.

One small cause for relief
throughout the entire decade of
the Chechnya conflict has been
that the rest of this complex
multi-ethnic region was not
sucked into the turmoil. Even the
incursion by Chechen fighter
Shamil Basayev into Dagestan in
1999 failed to destabilize the
region, as Basayev -- and whoever
else had planned it -- had hoped it
would.

Things have changed. The turmoil
had begun to spread even before
Beslan and the hostage crisis will
make things much worse. This is not a happy part of the
world. It is poor, mostly Muslim and increasingly alienated
from the rest of Russia. Unemployment is high, particularly
among young people. Local rulers are authoritarian and
corrupt. Racism by ethnic Russians towards North
Caucasians is on the rise. Over the past four years Moscow
has shored up its chosen leaders, kept up the subsidies and
helped suppress dissent but by doing so it is storing up
hidden problems for itself. On current trends, in a generation
much of the region could resemble parts of the Middle East
or North Africa more than it does Russia. And sure enough
radical Islam is finding willing recruits among young men,
particularly in places like Kabardino-Balkaria that seem
quiet on the surface.

Moscow Times