Gallup Poll: Bush down by 17!

[ilpostino]

That would be George Herbert Walker Bush of course....1988. This would be a good time to reflect on that August, 15 years ago, when Dukakis came roaring out of the convention with that impressive lead because it points out at last three things that should be instructive for us today:
1) How meaningless polls are (especially this early in the game), except for indicating general trends
2) How a ruthless candidate (Bush) can change the political landscape by turning the campaign into a referendum on marginal, but emotionally-charged issues
3) How a candidate (Dukakis) who lets his or her opponent define him or her and the issues is doomed

[Jacobin]

1. Yup. The fat lady definitely has not had time to sing yet.

.

[Sagan]

2. I notice they don't do Chimpy's ratings on CNN much these days..

When he was such a "popular wartime President", that Aryan Gallup guy would be on every day telling us how much we loved Chimpy based on his latest figures...

Now, he's doing polls like "do fat/ugly people get discriminated against in the hiring process" polls.

I don't know what pisses me off more about the media whores -- do they think I'm not smart enough to see through them or do they just not care?

[AngryYoungMan]

3. Inapplicable

The general thrust of your argument is sound, but the comparison's not applicable.

There are too many differences between then and now. Remember, also, that Dukakis famously went fishing or something after the convention and let his lead die on the vine. By contrast Clinton and Gore snapped into post-convention action, with those bus tours. Your point illustrates Dukakis' ineptitude more than it sheds light on anything going on during this pre-primary season four elections (and two wars) later.

[ilpostino]

7. Historical point

Of the Duke's many missteps, I don't think the R&R after the convention was one of them. It was pretty standard procedure in those more gentlemanly days for the candidate of one party to leave the stage to the other after the first convention. No one was prepared for the intense, bare-knuckled Atwater campaign then. And what Clinton did with his train ride four years later was a reaction to that change in strategy.

In any case, I think the lessons for the current posse of candidates (and their supporters) are more relevant than ever: ignore the polls, expect the worst of the enemy, and never fail to define yourself.

[wryter2000]

4. Perhaps it would be more illustrative

Perhaps it would be more illustrative to compare where GHW Bush was at this time in 1991. That's meant as a question for you, not a criticism. As I recall, his son is doing even worse now in comparison.

[OrdinaryTa]

5. Susan Estrich Ran His Campaign ... Into the Ground

The main lesson of the Dukakis campaign is a new respect for professional campaign managers. Law professor Susan Estrich should not have been calling the shots about how candidate Dukakis would present himself to the voters. An attractive candidate with a good message cannot overcome the destructive effects of a badly managed campaign.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

10. Good points: Atwater vs. Estrich

Not only was there the tank FUBAR phot-op, but the Willie Horton- Dukakis is weak on crime thing REALLY hit below the belt.
Yep, despite true substance to the contrary, Duke's image was forever tarnished by those 2 things. AND he was really short.

[Oracle]

6. Nothing a little war or terrorist bomb uncovered, can't fix...

and Rove will him back at 68% whenever needed.

[AngryYoungMan]

8. Everyone keeps saying that, but...

...I don't think the logic's all that sound.

Is another terrorist attack good for Bush, really? Wouldn't it

a) reveal how weak (read "nonexistent") the "war on terror" is
b) show how hitting Afghans and invading Iraq didn't help
c) focus on bad airport security (or whatever the specifics are)
d) give Shrub another opportunity to run, hide, and say stupid things
e) shed more light on the Saudi connections we aren't supposed to see
f) kill lots of U.S. civilians, which even evil plutocrats don't want to see happen

[ProfessorGAC]

9. I Am Staying With My Prediction

My approval model predicts 42% +/- 2% by Labor Day, absent some huge "rally 'round the flag" nonsense that intervenes.

At the same time, anything bad happens here in the U.S. and he's toast. There will be no excuses, no blaming others. Another terrorist action here and he's history. He will look impotent and ineffective and his domestic policy failures will be magnified 100fold.

Another little foreign adventure might get some of the sheep cheerleading again, but his slide is gaining inertia. My model predicts right where the last Pew and Zogby polls indicated.

So, i'll stick with that 40 - 44% by Labor Day. I guess we will see.
The Professor