Events Before the Election

[OrdinaryTa]

Some events are going to happen one way or the other before the election - Bush can't prevent them from happening. One certainty, for example, is that large numbers of troops currently stationed in Iraq are coming back to the United States. Given the sour reports of troop morale, these people won't be singing the praises of their Commander in Chief. Some of them will, of course; it's inevitable. But they are currently not being heard from, and before the election they will.

Another certainty is that the economy is going to pick up, or it's not. What are the chances that it will? Actually not very good. Companies are still not hiring, and they've been encouraged to think of productivity - getting more done with fewer workers - is a good thing. If present unemployment trends continue, many voters in 2004 will remember the lean Christmas they had in 2003.

Bush can't just dance around either of these issues. The return of bitter war veterans will make it possible for Democrats to question the policy in Iraq. Continued unemployment will enable the opposition to ask Can we afford four more years of this clown?