State rankings, Democratic vote percentages 2000

[carolinayellowdog]

In the presidential, that is. Spurred by the long thread about the South, I looked up totals and came up with this rough ranking, which contains some surprises. Hope it will generate discussion about individual states' winnability rather than regional generalizations. For simplicity's sake I won't list the R percentage or other, just the D. DC was higher than any state with 86% Dem.

1. RI 61
2. NY, MA 60
3. MD 57
4. NJ, CT, HA 56
5. IL, DE 55
6. CA 54
7. MI, PA, VT 51
8. WA 50
9. IA, ME, FL 49
10. MN, WI, NM, TN 48
11. NH, OR, MO 47
12. OH, WV, NV 46
13. AZ, AR, LA, VA 45
14. GA, NC, 43
15. AL, MS, CO 42
16. IN, KY, SC 41
17. OK, SD, TX 38
18. KS 37
19. MT 34
20. ND, NB, 33
21. WY, ID, AK 28
22. UT 26

If CNN had given more precise percentages beyond the decimal point I wouldn't have all these ties. Most evident implication is that TN and VA as as much in play as AR and LA.

CYD

[tpub]

1. those are depressing numbers

we really need to get out the vote

[demnan]

2. Virginia

has pockets of areas that are strongly Democratic. These areas are the northern parts: Alexandria, Arlington, Falls Church and part of Fairfax counties and the extreme south-western coal mining areas that are in Appalachia which include Lee, Wise, Pound counties. Also central southern Virginia (Danville area) has a high percentage of blacks in the populace.

Virginia currently has a Democratic governor, and Maryland (considered a strongly Democratic state) has a Republican one, so anything can happen in Virginia.

Whoever wants to win in Virginia should appeal to these three constituencies: Liberals from the D.C. suburbs, blacks from the agricultural area and coal miners from the southwest. These are three diverse groups. I think Dean can easily take the D.C. suburbs (where I live) but I'm not sure about his appeal to the other groups. I would guess Edwards has a better chance with them, or perhaps Gephardt, because of union miners.

[carolinayellowdog]

4. Actually, Danville is very R but the Southeast is D

Brunswick, Greensville, Sussex, Surry, Southampton counties all went for Gore, as did the cities of Suffolk, Norfolk, and Portsmouth.

[Skinner]

3. This is very interesting.

Thanks for posting this.

[TahitiNut]

5. Gee, if I'd known you wanted to know ...

... I'd have posted this for you. :evilgrin:

Here's the ratio of Republican (Bush) to Democratic (Gore) votes for each state in ascending (most Democratic first) order. The percentage of all votes received by Gore is in parentheses. (Remember, votes for third parties means 50% isn't an even split.)

DC ... 0.11 (85.2%)
RI ... 0.52 (61.0%)
MA ... 0.54 (59.8%)
NY ... 0.59 (60.2%)
HI ... 0.67 (55.8%)
CT ... 0.69 (55.9%)
MD ... 0.71 (56.5%)
NJ ... 0.72 (56.1%)
DE ... 0.76 (55.0%)
CA ... 0.78 (53.4%)
IL ... 0.78 (54.6%)
VT ... 0.80 (50.6%)
WA ... 0.89 (50.2%)
ME ... 0.90 (49.1%)
MI ... 0.90 (51.3%)
PA ... 0.92 (50.6%)
MN ... 0.95 (47.9%)
OR ... 0.99 (47.0%)
IA ... 0.99 (48.5%)
WI ... 1.00 (47.8%)
NM ... 1.00 (47.9%)
FL ... 1.00 (48.8%)
NH ... 1.03 (46.8%)
MO ... 1.07 (47.1%)
OH ... 1.08 (46.4%)
NV ... 1.08 (46.0%)
TN ... 1.08 (47.3%)
AR ... 1.12 (45.9%)
WV ... 1.14 (45.6%)
AZ ... 1.14 (44.7%)
LA ... 1.17 (44.9%)
VA ... 1.18 (44.4%)
CO ... 1.20 (42.4%)
GA ... 1.27 (43.0%)
NC ... 1.30 (43.2%)
AL ... 1.36 (41.6%)
KY ... 1.37 (41.4%)
IN ... 1.38 (41.0%)
SC ... 1.39 (40.9%)
MS ... 1.42 (40.7%)
KS ... 1.56 (37.2%)
TX ... 1.56 (38.0%)
OK ... 1.57 (38.4%)
SD ... 1.61 (37.6%)
MT ... 1.75 (33.4%)
ND ... 1.84 (33.1%)
NE ... 1.87 (33.3%)
AK ... 2.12 (27.7%)
ID ... 2.43 (27.6%)
WY ... 2.45 (27.7%)
UT ... 2.54 (26.3%)

Such data is available at http://www.nationalatlas.gov/el2000tm.html

[KamaAina]

8. Every time I see this list, I wonder why our top six states

all have Repukkke governors.

Including the one I just moved to, in part because of its forty years of Dem tradition, now gone the way of the, you will pardon the expression, hula hoop.

Then take a look at CA, also in the Dem top ten. Apparently the fascists aren't gonna be satisfied with anything less than utter domination.

[carolinayellowdog]

9. The Dakota paradox

Folks at DU wonder about how the South can elect Dems locally and go Repuke presidentially, but far stranger are the Dakotas, with 4 Dem senators and among the highest Repuke presidential percentages. No wonder Daschle wears a pink tutu. On the other hand, no wonder Chafee is more willing to defy his party than any other Repuke, coming from the state that gave * the lowest percentage of votes.

[mndemocrat_29]

12. We need to beat Chafee

Chafee may defy Bush a lot, but he still supports him on all of those judicial nominations. That alone could cost Chafee the election against Rep. Patrick Kennedy.

[DoctorBombay]

13. National election is better bellweather than gubunitorial election

The Dem governors in the red states seem to be more conservative Dems, while the Repuke govs in the blue states seem to be more moderate. The gubinatorial elections can swing on more local issues. It seems to me that the national election is more about one party over the other, so I think those splits mean more.

[devarsi]

6. Why The Hell Do I Live In UTAH??

I forget...It was all so clear once...

[TahitiNut]

10. To be different?

Missionary zeal? :shrug: (Yes, the double entendre was intentional.) :silly:

[Sean Reynolds]

14. Hey, if Salt Lake City broke off into its own state....

I'd bet it would vote Democratic in every election. Last I heard SLC is 1/3 Democrat, 1/3 Republican and 1/3 Independent. BUT a majority of those Independent's vote along with the Democrats.

Go figure Salt Lake City is one of the most liberal cities in one of the most conservative states.

[VermontDem2004]

15. SLC is more 1/2 republican(45%) 1/4 democrat.(30%) 1/4 indepent(20%)

with the independents voting democrat most of the time. SLC is the city with the largest mormon population in the entire world and they tend to be more republican. I agree Democrats would win elections but not every election. In the last Governor race Orton(D) won the city with 52% while Orton got 48%. In the 2002 House race for the 2nd district which covers the SLC area, Democrat Matheson beat Republican Swallow 108,488 votes to 106,473 votes. Just narrowly defeating him. But in Salt Lake City he did pick up 59% of the vote but that was mostly because he was in Incumbent. But in the 2000 Senate Race, Orrin Hatch picked up(guessing) 98% of the mormon vote and carried Salt Lake City with 55% of the vote, mostly because he too was an incumbent. Now in the 2000 Presidential Election, Bush beat Gore 56% to 35% in the Salt Lake City Area, so with all of these claims, SLC is not one of the most liberal cities.

[Sean Reynolds]

17. Uh, do your research.

You're including ALL of Salt Lake County (which is *NOT* Salt Lake City).

Check this article that ran in the Deseret News a few days ago:
http://deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,510045400,00.html

I quote from the article:
But Republicans, who outnumber Democrats two-to-one across the state, in Salt Lake City make up only a third of voters. A third say they are Democrats, a third independents. But most of the independents vote Democratic in partisan races, such as governor, Congress and Legislature, says Deseret Morning News pollster Dan Jones.


Read that full article for more proof.

Oh and Salt Lake City is only 40% LDS - a number that is dropping fast.

[HFishbine]

18. And SLC

hasn't gone for a dem president since Lyndon Johnson.

[Sean Reynolds]

19. Utah isn't Salt Lake City

[devarsi]

20. Dont I know it!

I live in Happy Valley, USA

whoa...sounds like "Harper Valley PTA," and aint that the truth.

I better write a song satire...

[indigo32]

7. God what happened to my

lovely progressive MN?

[TahitiNut]

11. Minnesota's pollution index is only 0.95.

(i.e. only 95 Bush voters to every 100 Gore voters.)

[HFishbine]

16. Additional Data

Allow me to throw in some possibly useful data.

Less than 50% doesn't translate to a Gore loss.

States where Gore got less than 50% but still carried the state:
-----------------------

Iowa
Maine
Minnesota
New Mexico
Oregon
Wisconsin

Closest States
------------------

Florida (duh): Bush*
New Mexico: Gore
Wisconsin: Gore
Iowa: Gore
Oregon: Gore
New Hampshire: Bush
Minnesota: Gore
Missouri: Bush
Ohio: Bush
Nevada: Bush (second lowest voter turnout)

States With Lowest Gore Percentage
----------------------------------

Utah: 26.43%
Idaho: 27.64%
Alaska: 27.67% (Also Nader's highest state w/10.07%)
Wyoming: 27.70%
North Dakota: 33.06%

(Are these lost cause states for 2004?)

States Gore Would have won if he got all Nader votes
--------------------------------------------------
Florida (25 Electoral votes)
New Hampshire (4 EV)

States With Lowest Voter Turnout
-----------------------------------
Hawaii: 40% (Gore)
Arizona: 41% (Bush)
Nevada: 41% (Bush)
Georgia: 43% (Bush)
Texas: 43% (Bush)
DC: 44% (Gore)

For what it's worth. If anything.

(http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/frametextj.html)