Average Gallup approval rating of presidents since Truman

[lancdem]

It's on the front of http://www.pollingreport.com

Clinton was actually more popular than Reagan, but ole one-termer Poppy was more popular than both. Interesting stuff.

[molly]

1. If Poppy was more popular, why was he a one-termer?

goes to show you how much polls count.

[unblock]

4. polls count and matter, and are genuinely informative

BUT they are not a crystal ball. when considering a president's popularity say a year prior to the next election, you have to consider the kind of news and circumstances that might be expected to happen in the following 12 months.

in shrub's case, e.g., it's far more likely that there's a lot of BAD news for shrub in the next few months. gas prices, inflation, deficit, the media taking the blinders off, disgruntled people in the pentagon, cia, bureaucracy, and ex-administartion officials. plus the democrats starting to smell victory. the only forseeable "GOOD" news for shrub would be some sort of october surprise, and even that seems to be being effectively immunized against.

so shrub's approval ratings are not likely to go up from here, this is corroborated by the fact that all the $$$ he's spent have not helped him lately.


in poppy's case, the 90% approval wasn't sustainable. it was an artificial support due to the particulars of a war against someone who was effectively painted as satan incarnate, perhaps reasonably enough. but it was quite predictable that those particular circumstances would not continue to be in effect by the election. and, of course, poppy ran a remarkably lackluster campaign and totally pissed off his based by signing on to a tax hike.


bottom line: approval ratings are valid and useful, but they are cannot be viewed naively. there's still no substitute for thinking.

[LTR]

2. Poppy got a boost from Iraq I

Nosedived around '92.

Junior's numbers shuld likewise be somewhat high, due to the post-9/11 spike.

[barbaraann]

3. 37% don't know who the enemy was on D-Day!!??!!

(scroll down on link)

This must be Bush's "base."

[Zynx]

5. That is so sad.

I have said many times that I feel that the American voter has become almost too unsophisticated for this democracy to function properly.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

6. Interesting how Bush I and Johnson are actually towards the top

of this hierarchy.

Maybe what it means is that the presidents who have high highs (Iraq War I, Great Society legislation) and low lows (Bush I Recession, VietNam), esp. when the low lows are late in their term, get turned out big time even though their "average" approval rates high.