Would'nt there be clear evidence if it was terrorism?

[WilliamPitt]

I understand that no evidence has been found (or reported) that something got blown up. That tends to leave some telltale signs behind. So if we're talking terrorism, we're basically talking about industrial sabotage, an attack on the infrastructure.

How savvy does one have to be in order to shut down a massive power grid without leaving demonstrable evidence behind? How protected is this place? Was it insiders?

I have to think someone would have to know their stuff to do this. I also have to think this plant was pretty protected from within and without, meaning it would have almost certainly have to have been insiders. That strikes me as unlikely.

I'm sure they fired that claim out quick to spare the markets a beating; NASDAQ was closed, but the international market's weren't. The bond market flew upwards after this happened, a sure sign that people are bailing on stocks en masse.

It is entirely possible this was terrorism and they're not reporting it. But I'd be interested to know from y'all how plausible the terrorism scenario is, given my questions.

[preocupied]

1. Ted just hinted at a "hacker" on Nightline....

Earlier this week, we had that worm virus, maybe totally unrelated or maybe not....

[Clete]

2. Since no lives have been lost, it doesn't seem to be

terrorism. However, if it is the first act as a setup to a follow-up act of terrorism, I hope their intelligence is up to date and that they can stop it.

[PsychoDad]

24. Terrorism would not require loss of life...

Simply to instill a sense of terror, fear of the unknown. A loss of safety and security.

[Clete]

26. True, but that would be more Bush's MO. Osama

or any of the dozen new radicals we have managed to piss off with the Iraq war want a lot of blood and death.

[Journeyman]

3. I'm not following real close (working). . .

but if the grid is coming back on line slow but sure, and is expected to be back at full power sometime this evening (or, at least that's what New York authorities were saying earlier today), wouldn't that argue against this being a terrorist attack? I'd think terrorist might inflict enough damage to really shut the system down -- for days, if not longer.

Am I correct about the grid coming back on line?

[Kathy in Cambridge]

4. Are Canada's Grids More Vulnerable?

Did the blackout originate in Ontario or upstate NY? Would it be easier for a terrorist to penetrate Canada's grid or one here in the US? Food for thought...

[Pale Blue Dot]

I basically agree, Will

My question is: if they are so sure it's NOT terrorism, couldn't they release some sort of clear, consice statement explaining how they are so sure? To me, that would be a lot more reassuring than "We know it's not terrorism", and then dropping the matter.

[alaine]

19. My thoughts exactly.

They press release the official government approved thought patterns and we are all supposed to fall and line and repeat "this was not an act of terrorism. It was a system failure. How do we know? Because Oz, the Great and Mighty, said so."

With this kind of "thought control" going on, it wouldn't surprise me if they don't run Bush's campaign for re-election on the platform that the whole last term was "just a dream, Pam".

[jafap]

30. a dream to some, to others

a nightmare!

[cosmicaug]

5. Cyberattack

You're thinking physical sabotage. There's always the possibility of cyberattack. Personally, I would guess that such a risk is vastly exagerated by many and that it is probably not terribly feasible but I'm not knowledgeable and I suppose it is a theoretical possibility. While such an attack would presumably leave evidence behind (in the form of logs or whatever) it would be easier to deny than a bunch of power stations being blown up.

Just doing my bit to spawn ridiculous conspiracy theories.

[Capn Sunshine]

25. That was my first thought

MS Blaster worm everywhere. Craeting havoc, yesterday. Today, a whole dang grid goes down. Pretty coincidental. Not really terrorist, but they would be loathe to admit a hacker created worm could take out a vital part of the infrastructure.

Damn, I really hate how we just don't trust the govt anymore. :hippie:

[leftofthedial]

6. In the absence of first-hand observation

I'd vote for employing Occam's razor.

This looks, acts and feels like a cascading blackout due to the failure of one system in the regional grid. It's almost certainly due to overloading or some technical failure.

I don't think any extraordinary cause is needed to explain this.

I wouldn't unequivocally rule out terrorism, sabotage or another malicious human cause, but terrorism seems like a grossly overcomplicated explanation.

In 1965, there was a fairly popular belief that UFO's caused the massive blackouts. Also a ridiculously complex hypothesis to explain a pretty straightforward situation.

[WilliamPitt]

7. About what I thought

Thanks.

[salin]

13. While I have nothing but a gut feeling

if there was a failure - I would be very interested in knowing how multiple users (through dereg) plays through on this system and if the move to privatization has led to extra stress on the system. Or could degredation of infrastructure (who pays for the upkeep of the infrastructure?), or some other flaw /unintended consequence be a result of moving something as essential as power out of the sole purview/oversight of traditional utilities (people forget that these were often public companies not government entities but tightly regulated)? Or if in the transition to a 'competitive market' situation holes - related to infrastructure design/capcity/upkeep/etc - developed in the larger system?

I would venture that lack of oversight or perhaps corporate planning flaws (or worse if decisions to "increase revenues" were related to allowing infrastructure to degrade) are more likely explanations than terrorism.

But it is a gut feeling, and I do not know enough about the industry to have any idea as to whether or not this might be likely.

[berry]

21. 2 engineers on CNBC said almost the same thing as you--

that there's no broad oversight responsibility of the huge regional grids. Now that I've read your post, I'm sorry I didn't listen more carefully to what they said. I can't add anything, except to say that you aren't alone. Probably this will be discussed more in the coming days.

[salin]

23. Thanks.

Just over a year ago I delved rather deeply into issues related to energy deregulation in California - how the changes happened in DC to allow the state dereg with all sorts of questions of how this related to Cheney's energy plans. It gave me an overview of questions - but I really have little true expertise. It is nice to hear experts assert thoughts along these lines. If you can recall (or if anyone knows how to find CSNBC transcripts) WHO these experts were - it might be very important.

If the republicans haven't already - they WILL use this to further push their legislation - and I have a strong sense that it will exasperate already existing problems. Knowing WHO the experts are who can give voice to counter the political onslaught that I predict is about to happen would be useful. To make things worse bush and cheney are back fundraising to these same interests - that is why I am not surprised that the energy bill just got a STRONG push from the WhiteHouse in the past 2 weeks. It is time to prove that the money invested (in Bush's elections) pays off - big political incentive. But the bill is horrendous. I fear that unless this angle is explored PUBLICALLY (any house folks reading this who can push their congressional rep to push for hearings?????) and raise these questions in a big way publically - this incident which may be a direct result of similar policies will be used to accelerate even less oversight and more privatization (eg set up for much BIGGER problems of this sort in the future).

[berry]

31. I've been on the CNBC website, and it is terrible.

They do list guests, but the pages disappear the next day. I wrote them an email suggesting that they keep those lists available for at least a few days--the guests might appreciate it as well. MSNBC is pretty good with transcripts, etc. CNBC is a disappointment.

So, sorry, Salin. Couldn't find the names. But I'll keep an ear out and take notes next time. I agree with you about how important this is.

[stickdog]

29. But a "cascading blackout" due to "overloading or some technical failure"

is simple?

I don't get it.

What makes one explanation that I don't understand simpler than another that I do?

[Rex]

8. Just talk to a friend that works for a casino around the

Niagara Mohawk area, he told me that they lost about one million dollars in revenue because the back up generator failed after 2 hours.

One million dollars.

Now times that by how many busniess are out there that rely on time-relay business and it got me to wondering why people always seem to assume that a terrorist attack HAS to be physical damage (bombing of a building etc). Not saying it is, probably a mechanical error/fault somewhere.

[papau]

9. Sensor must think grid is going down and send message to other sensors

How difficult is it to fake a signal? - well that is really what a hacker is doing with a computer - getting a set of signals sent to various parts of the computer.

The power company/grid company security conf 3 weeks ago agreed that the power company controls and the grid were effectively connected to the interent. The conf adopted a set of new security rules - which have not been implemented as yet. Plus control of various gizmos that control the grid is by radio - standard clear signal radio.

A terrorist attack is not at all unreasonable. But there appears no proof - unless you consider the bad data the diag. program is sending back from its signal probes - a lightning strike, a atomic power plant off line, a con ed fire - all incorrect. Why?

I think it is a given we will never know. In the East all is privately owned with just about no gov regulation - Homeland Security has no authority over any power topic unless and until something goes boom.

"insider" just means an engineer trained in electrical engineering that specialized in power creation and transport. Could be anyone. But then there is no proof that it is anyone, or that a "someone" did anything.

Should be a good topic for tomorrow's Boston meet up!

:-)

[WilliamPitt]

11. Saturday meetup

:)

[newsguyatl]

10. i honestly

don't know what i feel...

i DO know, however, that i was struck by bush's appearance tonight in his taped address... something's up, not sure what it is, but something's awry...

[WilliamPitt]

12. He's fucking awry.

Always has been. Always will be. Christ, he was probably drunk.

[left_of_left]

14. LOL, Will

caught you on c-span in the early morning hours a few nights ago, tremendous speech, that crowd was wrapped around your finger! Salut!

[WilliamPitt]

15. Thanks!

Welcome to DU.

[Friar]

35. well, damn

I missed that. I can't find it on c-span's site. Is there a vid of that anywhere?

And welcome :toast:

[newyawker99]

36. Hi left_of_left!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Andy_Stephenson]

28. Yes on Vodka Martinis

no doubt.

Hi Will

[burrowowl]

16. No it is

not terrorism. I often wondered why terrorists did not do more things like attacking the economy through power, transit, etc. outages to bring a country down. But that is not their interest. Their interest is TERROR (of cours there is silent terrorism of corporations with nuclear power plants that can cause wide-spead disater). A few thousand dead has more of an impact than underminding the economy with blackouts, etc and can be used by the ruling class to scare and thereby dominate the underclass.
Deregulation is symptomatic of: get all the money while you can for the few and to hell with the commonweal. Poorly paid people are for cheap electricity, normal, they have a hard time paying for what something may really costs and corporations want to reap all that they can.
Just an example of idiocy: when I was going to University in Albuquerque NM in the late 60's, the population was around 190,000. Living in town, I could see the stars and make out the constellations from my parents backyard (a source of relaxation). I now rent a cheap dump in Roswell, NM, population 42,000, on a 20 acre piece of polluted land and I cannot make out all the constellations because of LIGHT pollution all arouund me (and the lighting does nothing to cut down on crime, believe me).
Just the light pollution eats up electrity like mad. Add this to inefficient appliances, etc. and bingo!
A beef with California, coal plants in Farmington NM send electrity to California and pollute the hell out of the area. California and their 'clean energy' give me a break, pollute NM. NM, which is ideal for solar and wind power do they insist on coal, processing of which uses precious water (well fortunately Peabody decided that it was not profiable to mine the coal near the Zuni's, which would have polluted and drained a scared salt lake, thank god for very small favors.).
In California, there is a hugh wind farm, but not enough transmission lines built, so useless wind farm.
I average $10 more a month for my electical bill to 'purchase' wind generated electricity. I'll be laid off soon, will I be able to afford it?
The TERRORISTS ARE GREEDY CORPORATIONS! and people who think a thousand watt beacon will protect themselves from burglars (coupable ignorance also breeds terrorism)!

[DEMActivist]

17. Well, what about this?

Don't you think that if it WAS terrorism and they were "dismissed" almost immediately, they are likely to hit a different grid in the next few days/weeks? How embarassing would that be to the administration when it happens AGAIN?

All I can say is if it WAS terrorists, they have several more grids they can work on to prove it, don't they?

Kinda like the hackers - if they don't get enough attention the first time, they come back and hack it worse, making absolutely sure there is no doubt the 2nd time.

[TreasonousBastard]

18. If it was terrorism, those clowns in DC would probably...

trumpet it from the rooftops.

At any rate, it makes very small news around here, but the grid and the generating facilities haven't really been keeping ahead of demand. They're not in as bad shape as in '65 or '77, but still not in that great shape.

If you wanted to knock out the grid, you'd have to know the few key points that would do it. I don't think they're all that difficult to find, but you would have to have the engineering knowledge to figure it out. Although they call it a grid, it's not exactly a grid, and has certain entry points and bottlenecks that could be attacked. I would think that taking out a number of major transmission lines would work better, and be easier, than trying to take out a big station or two.

If you want to kill it, you would probably want to knock out several points simultaneously, just to make sure it's down. We have local blackouts and brownouts and equipment failures all the time on the grid, and the whole point of grids is that the slack can be taken up.

Personally, I'll go with the lightning strike. Both lightning strikes and electromagnetic waves from sunspot activity take out substations on a regular basis. Usually, it's just spot outages that are hardly noticed, and this easily could have been the mother of all lightning at just the wrong time when the system was stressed.

Just like the other two big blackouts.

[diamond14]

20. could easily be a screw-up at a nuclear power plant...these

nuke plants are getting old and don't last forever...plus, there's been a BIG push to get cheaper labor into nuke plants just like other major industries....

here's a link to nuke 'accidents'

http://prop1.org/2000/accident/acclv.htm

look under "Let the facts speak" on the left sidebar....long list of nuke 'accidents', including Nuclear power plants...the nuclear plants in the USA are all VERY OLD...and old stuff breaks, especially after exposure to radiation for 30 years or so....

the whole Nuclear Power Industry is an ACCIDENT WAITING TO HAPPEN...

and within that industry...there are incompetent people and also, disgrunted employees...so don't brush it off so easily as coming from within...

[dudeness]

22. Will ..terror is like a tap..

you turn it on or off as you please...this time around the tap stays off..we don't want the folks thinking our invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq have failed to stop the terrorists...hell no!!! people would then question the admins effectiveness and spending priorities...does anyone else feel like they are living an Orwellian nightmare???

[absolutezero]

27. IMHO

i think it was just a massive screwup on someone's (the canadians most likely) part

think about it, a whole power grid goes down starting in canada/northern NY the canadians claim it was a lighting strike, a theory most people are dumb enough to swallow despite the fact that people such as myself knew they were full of shit because of the whole "it's impossible" thing, then the utilities, news stations and the chimp in chief all call the prime minister of canada on this...

then the canadians say it started in a nuclear plant out in pennsylvania, a state hardly affected ( to my knowledge since my power came on 20 minutes ago)

this reeks of bullshit, but not from * (for once)

[Not a robought]

32. wrong

The Canadians were relaying information they received from the office of critical infrastructure protection and emergency preparedness. That office receives their information originally from the utilities.

The grid did not start going down in Canada/NY. They are now investigating an anomaly with the power generation around Cleveland.

I would hold off on the accusations.

[Spazito]

33. It was not Canada, it was Ohio,,,,

check out this link:

http://www.canada.com/news/world/story.asp?id=D1CD0889-E3E9-4A96-B56C-C26A60EC0D21

WASHINGTON (AP) - The failure of three transmission lines in northern Ohio was the likely trigger of the power blackout that shut down the northeast United States and all of Ontario, a leading investigator said Saturday.

Experts are working to understand why the disruption spread throughout the Northeast and Midwest and into Canada, and was not contained.


So, you are right, this reeks of bullshit, but it IS from * and his admin.

I am soooooo tired of this admin pointing fingers at Canada for their own misadministration!

[ScreamingMeemie]

34. I was tending to think, in my darkened home, that there was more to

that nasty Microsoft worm than originally was thought...I also recalled last weekend that our lights had dimmed down for about an hour while we sat playing cards with friends.

My belief, given that major cities were able to mobilize within minutes, is that they KNEW this was going to happen. Terrorism? I don't know? Computer hack? I don't know. Lightning strike in Canada? Hell no.

I sure as heck don't believe it was an act of God, but I do believe those in charge knew about it well before Thursday afternoon right after 4PM.

Laura, who's just glad I can finally see DU.