What is your prognosis for Saudi Royalty?

[burythehatchet]

They are armed to the teeth.

They are spiraling into a situation where the language of violence has is speaking more loudly every week. It can only end in civil war against the house of saud. Very bloody. If be-headings are perfromed under controlled circumstances, well in the heat of battle the blood will flow like a river.

U.S. economic interests would face a meltdown if the flow from Saudi is interrupted. The only choice would be to imbed the 100K troops in Iraq. Plug their oil hose into our gas tank, and, in the process stage a takeover of Saudi oil. Isn't that the real prize? Isn't that what causes the sick frickin gleam in cheney's eye?

That's where I see this headed. What do you think?

[NMDemDist2]

1. isn't that why we now have Iraq (the 2nd largest oil reserve)??

the righty's saw the writing on the wall re the Royal Family?

just a thought

[burythehatchet]

4. Yes. and to secure it the level of violence in Iraq is also going to

escalate. That was what numb nuts warned about when he made his first (and only, although it was supposed to be weekly leading up to the hangover) address

The pipelines are what the islamists will go after. They know that to cripple the oil supply is to cripple the world economy.

[IkeWarnedUs]

30. No, the righty's WROTE it on the wall

This is what PNAC's William Kristol had to say back on 5/22/02 in his testimony before the House Committee on International Relations
Subcommittee on Middle East and South Asia:

<snip>

Clearly, the long tradition of quiet diplomacy with the Saudi monarchy no longer serves American purposes. The royal family has taken silence as consent in its strategy of directing Arab and Islamic discontent away from the House of Saud and toward the United States, Israel and the West. This is a strategy inimical to American security and a dangerously crippling problem in President Bush’s war on terrorism.

<snip>

...it is clear that we cannot base our strategy for the region on the hope that the Saudis will moderate their behavior to suit our interests. To the Saudis we have been, at best, allies of convenience, shielding them from other would-be regional hegemons with greater conventional military strength, larger populations and more diverse economies. The Saudi desire to create a caliphate of money and religious extremism depends upon an unwitting American partner.


So in addition to hoping for and encouraging change from within Saudi Arabia, we should develop strategic alternatives to reliance on Riyadh. In the military sphere, we have already begun to hedge, with agreements and deployments to other Gulf emirates. Although still the strongest influence on oil prices, other source -- in Russia, the Caspian Basin, Mexico and elsewhere -- can be developed and brought to market at a reasonable cost. The attacks of September 11 remind us that it is not just what we pay at the pump but what we pay in lives, security and international political stability that comprise the true price of Saudi oil.

Link: http://www.newamericancentury.org/saudi-052302.htm

(its on the PNAC website)

[burythehatchet]

32. as much as I can't stand kristol, he is damn smart in an evil sort of way

[thebigidea]

2. I predict Adel al-Jubeir will continue looking creepy as hell

Whenever Saudi Arabia comes up, they trot out this loathsome adviser to the "Crown Prince" - blegh... he looks like an old baby or something. Those eyes! Those unsettling eyes!

Sorry. What was the question?

[burythehatchet]

6. If you are a star trek fan

you might remember a race of beings that communicated by telepathy. I'll try to find a pic

[quinnox]

3. The Saudis will go on as usual

They have been ruling forever, and since they are sitting on one of the worlds most important resources then the most powerful nations like the U.S. is at their beck and call.

[Aidoneus]

8. and both are powerless to stop what is happening

...that fact puts things in perspective, I suppose. Whatever is done in response to recent events and the older tendencies behind them, from the range of nothing to anything, will not help.

[ClassWarrior]

5. That thought did cross my mind in a darker moment this eve...

(shudder)

And yes, little Adel is pretty creepy.

[LTR]

7. Would there really be a revolution?

The Saudi people don't really seem the revolutionary type.

[burythehatchet]

12. Think back on history to the turks

The only way to stop an upring in the desert is to go nuclear. Hence the rush to research overnight bag sized nukes.

[NMDemDist2]

18. i have read of running gun battles in the streets over there

sounds pretty revolutionary to me :shrug:

[punpirate]

9. Umm... don't know the odds...

... but, there are something like 30,000 princes, and 20-odd million citizens. Even with the military and the palace guards, they'd be no match for a general revolt.

For the US, though, it's a lose-lose situation. If the US doesn't do anything, the oil's gone for a while, and the US loses the only real connections it has in SA, the princes.

If they try to mount a counter-attack on the general populace of SA, they short themselves troops in Iraq, build high levels of ill-will among the Muslim community world-wide for waging war in the Holy Land, and also lay themselves open for charges that they are defending the princes against the princes' subjects just for the sake of oil.

Another case for Richard Clarke's assertion that the obsession with Iraq has diverted attention from terrorism. If al-Qaeda had been more thoroughly disabled, there would be fewer disturbances in SA, Iraq wouldn't be a focus for fanatical Muslims that see the chance for another theocratic state in the Middle East, and the situation could be ameliorated over a longer period of time diplomatically. As it is now, the schedule of events will be dictated more by al-Qaeda than by common sense.

[burythehatchet]

13. deep

:thumbsup:

[madrchsod]

10. they have just about run

their course. all rulers fall-some with death and some just fade away.the house of saud will fail and the new crew will sell the oil to who ever comes up with the money..it`s all about the money,even allah takes the back seat when there`s hundreds of billions to make...

[Fenris]

11. Remember when the mayor of London said he'd be happy

When the Saudi Royal Family was hanging from the lampposts? I didn't entirely disagree with him.

Their time is coming soon, I suspect. They will eventually piss off al Qaeda and the other terrorist groups. It's inevitable. They will be attacked. The palaces bombed, the oil fields set aflame. They may not go away, but they will certainly be weakened.

[burythehatchet]

14. They will eventually lose

but in the interim they will use an arsenal that they have been stockpiling for over 30 years. The carnage....

[Fenris]

15. Monarchies tend not to be immortal.

[Cat Atomic]

16. Personally, I think they're fucked.

If they've got any sense at all, they'll pull a Marcos and run off into eternal bliss on the public dime.

The anti-government forces in that country must realize that this is the first time in decades that they could actually get away with a revolution. The US is simply too overstretched to protect our "vital corporate interests" in Saudi Arabia.

[NMDemDist2]

19. wow good point eom

[Pachamama]

22. Nuclear Kitty is absolutely right - House of Saud/Fahd is F*cked.....

...They realize that they are hanging on by a thread and they know that its a matter of time for them....they have their private jets fueled and waiting 24x7....Things are getting out of control there and they know the US is stretched way too thin to help them...

I've been thinking about this recently a lot too....Imagine suddenely our major Oil Supplier not giving the US any more oil....hmmmm...what then George? And like another poster said, there was a reason for the Right Wingnutters to want Iraq....

But, getting back to Cat Atomic's point - yes, the Saudi Royal Family is screwed....I give them 3 months....

[GreenPartyVoter]

35. What will replace them when they are gone?

[burythehatchet]

36. Your answer can be found by looking at Iran

and what happened there, in circumstances that were similar in many ways. The difference now is that dick cheney is intent on using the de-stabilization to grab the oil

[GreenPartyVoter]

37. So we're looking at another theocracy? Not surprising

seeing as how SA is full of Islamic hard-liners already.

[burythehatchet]

38. actually we're not. the point is that the neocon cabal has already

planned the takeover of the saudi oil fields. They will kill millions to keep those fields

[Cleita]

17. I know less about the Middle East muddle than Condaleeza, which

makes me very dumb indeed, but I will try to run this through my brain in a sort of stream of conscience way. If all this blood is being shed to keep the oil flowing to feed our gargantuan appetite for it, I think we are gonna be in for a big rude awakening. The robber barons 'misunderestimated' the fact that maybe a lot of people don't roll over when they are robbed as easily as the American Joe Sixpack has.

While the bloody wars go on, the spigot will be choked, and we will find ourselves finding other ways to obtain energy. Maybe this is our salvation. When we don't consume this commodity as much, the robber oil barons might eventually find themselves without a pot to piss in. One can only hope. None of us will come out of this without scars.

[burythehatchet]

34. At its core I believe that

its the cultural domination that the west exports at the expense of crowding out Islamic theological ideas. A really good example is the case of the Shah of Iran and how he managed to incite a popular uprising.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

20. In our generation:

:thumbsdown:

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

21. A mansion in Palm Springs

while they await the American "liberation" of the oil fields.

[burythehatchet]

23. I'll be honest

when I think about this and assemble it with a supposedly wacky peak oil scenario.......

[Pachamama]

24. In 1997 on a trip to Equador, a Geologist on our trip into the Amazon,

...where myself and some other Environmentalists were meeting with members from various tribes in the Amazon areas where the Oil companies have drilled and want to drill more, said to me that there was only about 40-50 years left of oil reserves on the planet (including untapped reserves). I saw this person about 6 months ago and he said that with our country (and the rest of the planet, especially China's) hunger for the black gold and current consumption which just keeps growing, that its more like 15-20 years (including untapped reserves) and the Big Oil companies know it. This Geologist is very well known and respected....I don't think you have a wacky peal oil scenario in mind....Its very real....

[burythehatchet]

27. my usage of the word wacky should have been in parenthesis

I'm not very skeptical

[The empressof all]

25. Rapid Relocation

Within the next few weeks the bulk of the house of Saud will relocate to Switzerland and Florida. I agree that within the next two years Haliburton will be administering Saudi oil production.

[BiggJawn]

26. We will continue to prop them up and kiss their asses...

Saudi Army? Isn't that a bunch of ill-trained conscripts lead by an officer corps comprised of minor princes who spend all day training to look manly in uniform?

We'll continue to support that buch of hoodlums as long as they promise not to fuck us too raw over the price of a barrel...

[burythehatchet]

28. that's been the status quo. the dynamic is changing n/t

[BiggJawn]

29. I don't think Cheney's ready to tell 'em to F-O yet.

The troops have been mostly pulled out, but we still don't have enough of "our oil" coming from under Iraq's sand to tell laughing boy Ibn Saud to go bugger himself yet...And there's all thoe other Americans there. Eh, I wouldn't put it past this bunch to drop a load and say "See? you should have left when we told you to..."

Place is a powder keg, and the House of Saud is about to find out the price of not dealing with their religious whackos, IMO...

[pfitz59]

31. History

http://www.hejleh.com/countries/saudi.html
"Modern Saudi Arabia owes its existence to Ibn Saud, an adherent of the Wahhabi Muslim sect. Beginning in 1902 he conquered the Nejd, Al Hasa, and Hejaz regions, and in 1932 he proclaimed himself king of a united Saudi Arabia. Oil was discovered in 1936;"......
and the rest is history!

[devilgrrl]

33. Here's a great book about the Saudi royals...

I read it in the months following 9/11 - VERY ALARMING!!!!

The Rise, Corruption and Coming Fall of the House of Saud

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0312161190/qid=1087627310/sr=1-2/ref=sr_1_2/104-4833102-1408700?v=glance&s=books

From Publishers Weekly
Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil producer, is also the world's most absolute feudal monarchy and the place where the gap between the haves and have-nots is the widest. Journalist Aburish (Pay-Off: Wheeling and Dealing in the Arab World) takes a close look at the 90-year-old dynasty, emphasizing recent history and the House of Saud's dictatorial, profligate and increasingly corrupt ways, aided in the last instance by U.S. oil companies. He compares the present situation in Saudi Arabia with Iran before the overthrow of the Shah in 1979?"blind, oblivious haughtiness by a hated ruling class." With a national debt approaching $100 billion, the country's financial structure is on the verge of collapse. The West, says the author, must take immediate drastic action before a revolution results in a cessation of oil production, worldwide depression and the possibility of a jihad, or holy war, against the infidel West if, for instance, UN forces tried to occupy the oil fields. Aburish urges a complete reversal of U.S. policy, with Washington pressuring the House of Saud to share the national wealth with the Saudi people, to begin protecting their human rights and to give them a voice in the country's affairs. A well-researched and provocative expose/denunciation of Arabia's powerful ruling clan. Photos.
Copyright 1995 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

Book Description
This explosive examination of the Saud dynasty, whose greed and corruption have brought Saudi Arabia to the brink of bankruptcy--and the world to the edge of disaster--"raises important questions, not the least of which is whether Washington can afford to blithely close its eyes to developments within Saudi Arabia" (Newsday). of photos.