Should we have pool: bet on how much W's poll #s drop after 1 wk of F911

[AP]

I say 4 pt drop after 1 week, 6 in 2 weeks 10 in 4 weeks.

[FreakinDJ]

1. 3 to 5%

[Tellurian]

15. No, start a thread about how much $$$ the movie will gross opening wknd..

[peacebuzzard]

19. MM 's big cash-out and fame will be in the international markets,

and he will eventually get his respect here. I myself am looking forward to the choir's night on the town...

My bet is B*s no.s plummet to low 40s and get puffed up to an optimistic 43-44% for the pre-election weeks. ( The machine will never admit to the high 30s.)

[xray s]

2. Negative infinity

W will disappear into a political black hole so deep, the alphabet will only be 25 letters long, and keyboards will have to be redesigned worldwide (as preordained when W occupied the White House and found the keyboard transformation already in progress)

[juajen]

3. I don't think any fundies will go to see this movie

But, independents and undecideds probably will. So, I think a one point increase every week for the first month, then reduced after that. Of course, by that time we will have the beautiful democratic convention, so we should get a bounce there. Will be hard to differentiate between the two bounces.

[Must_B_Free]

4. I say it takes more time

Sure people will see it the first week, but its the people they tell about it that will lower the polls. I think it takes time for stuff to soak in.

[sleepystudent]

5. They won't drop at all...

or if they do, it will have absolutely nothing to do with Fahrenheit 9/11.

How many undecided voters do you know are going to see this? It seems like it will only be preaching to the converted, unfortunately. Its opening in around 900 theaters all over the place and unless it has a big opening weekend ( I don't mean big for a documentary,but big for any movie ) it will only last a week in places like Bible Belt cities and your garden variety suburb and will only play in the places where one would expect it to get a good reception. Moore and Bush are polarizing figures and pretty much people who like/love Moore and hate Bush are its audience. No one else. Sorry, I'm just not bullish on this movie at all.

[BigDaddyLove]

10. I am more or less with you on this one............

Moore has become as polarizing as Rush; those who hold a disdainful opinion of Rush simply don't listen, the same can be said for Moore's books and films.

Sadly.

[AP]

18. Moore topped NYT bestseller list for WEEKS, and BFC was top grossing doc

ever. Moore has a way broader and more diverse reach than Rush.

[Still_Loves_John]

6. no immediate drop

I don't think that undecideds will see this movie, because the undecideds just aren't that interested politically. I think that the way the movie can have an eventual effect is by influencing the public debate, so its message eventually gets filtered down.

[AP]

8. 34% of Nielsen responsdents say they'll see it. 67% have heard of it.

Those are HUGE numbers. I doubt that they only include definite Kerry voters.

[Still_Loves_John]

16. 34% is probably

a little less than the percentage of the population that is solidly Democratic. You proved my point.

[AP]

17. A lot of Dems don't go to movies. I think when 34% say they're definitely

going to see a movie, that's going to include a lot of I's.

And if the definites are 34%, the maybes are probably another 15-25%.

[Merlin]

7. The only group this will substantively effect is the 18-30 demographic.

They will definitely see this in droves, and it will probably increase Kerry's lead among them (53%-44% now). But they don't vote in great proportions.

[Lex]

9. Plus Kerry will name a running mate on July 4th

weekend (or so many say) and I think that will cause a jump in his points from 3 to 5 percentage points.

Bush loses ground due to F 9/11.
Kerry gains ground due to a savvy VP selection.

[BillZBubb]

11. No effect after 1 week.

Only us already in the choir will see it the first week. We might get a few converts from the younger independents who see it out of curiousity. But that won't be enough to make any impact.

Longer term it's a small plus. It will give us some ammunition to throw at the Repugs. I don't see F911 as having much effect on this race--ie less than 1%.

[AP]

13. Do you only hang out with people with whom you agree? People don't go

to movies alone. I say a lot of people take someone who hasn't totally made up his or her mind.

[drdigi420]

12. i think (hope) that it will have a different effect

i think it will get a lot of young people out to the polls that normally wouldnt have participated

i believe that bodes well for kerry

[nodehopper]

14. I say 3-4% in the first week, and that is A LOT.